My mind was changed today…

[Biffins]

Pats fans are obsessed with a QB. « Can’t win without a QB ». Pfft.

SF is the best team in the league with Purdy - who is good, but hardly a first overall.

Allen is supposedly good : teams with better records going into this week - Indy with Minshew / Cleveland with Flacco / Cindy with a newb…

Hurts is a second rounder, Dak (who is horse crap today) was drafted in the fourth. Brady was a 6th rounder and Russell Wilson wasn’t taken early either. List goes on.

Who are the first rounders ? Mahomes. Awesome player. Herbert, overrated. Mac, Zach, Fields, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones….

Allen and Burrows and Lawrence are VG but each has flaws, none are likely SB winners any time soon.

Brock Purdy has the highest YPA in league history at 9.9 with atleast 3,000 passing yards. So he might not be THAT bad.

Brock Purdy	2023	SF	14	9.9	268	384	69.8	3,795	271.1	29	7.6	7	1.8	26	145	119
Kurt Warner	2000	STL	11	9.9	235	347	67.7	3,429	311.7	21	6.1	18	5.2	20	115	98.3
Chris Chandler	1998	ATL	14	9.6	190	327	58.1	3,154	225.3	25	7.6	12	3.7	45	283	100.9
Matt Ryan	2016	ATL	16	9.3	373	534	69.9	4,944	309	38	7.1	7	1.3	37	235	117.1
Aaron Rodgers	2011	GB	15	9.2	343	502	68.3	4,643	309.5	45	9	6	1.2	36	219	122.5
Lynn ****ey	1983	GB	16	9.2	289	484	59.7	4,458	278.6	32	6.6	29	6	40	307	87.3
Boomer Esiason	1988	CIN	16	9.2	223	388	57.5	3,572	223.3	28	7.2	14	3.6	30	245	97.4
George Blanda	1961	HOU	14	9.2	187	362	51.7	3,330	237.9	36	9.9	22	6.1			91.3
Peyton Manning	2004	IND	16	9.2	336	497	67.6	4,557	284.8	49	9.9	10	2	13	101	121.1

 

[farn]

Brock Purdy has the highest YPA in league history at 9.9 with atleast 3,000 passing yards. So he might not be THAT bad.

​ Brock Purdy	2023	​ SF	14	9.9	268	384	69.8	3,795	271.1	29	7.6	7	1.8	26	145	119
Kurt Warner	2000	STL	11	9.9	235	347	67.7	3,429	311.7	21	6.1	18	5.2	20	115	98.3
Chris Chandler	1998	ATL	14	9.6	190	327	58.1	3,154	225.3	25	7.6	12	3.7	45	283	100.9
Matt Ryan	2016	ATL	16	9.3	373	534	69.9	4,944	309	38	7.1	7	1.3	37	235	117.1
Aaron Rodgers	2011	GB	15	9.2	343	502	68.3	4,643	309.5	45	9	6	1.2	36	219	122.5
Lynn ****ey	1983	GB	16	9.2	289	484	59.7	4,458	278.6	32	6.6	29	6	40	307	87.3
Boomer Esiason	1988	CIN	16	9.2	223	388	57.5	3,572	223.3	28	7.2	14	3.6	30	245	97.4
George Blanda	1961	HOU	14	9.2	187	362	51.7	3,330	237.9	36	9.9	22	6.1			91.3
Peyton Manning	2004	IND	16	9.2	336	497	67.6	4,557	284.8	49	9.9	10	2	13	101	121.1

That’s fair. I might’ve been guilty of falling for the anti-hype. I remember Brady being the Purdy : game manager status with many fans / media. They were wrong. I’m open to being wrong in this case. For sure, he’s not just a guy. I still get the impression several QBs could look good in SF this season, but Purdy has gotten the job done.

 

[Ivan]

How often have the top 3 QBs all panned out, or even the top 2?

History says that taking a QB with a top pick, doesn’t mean you will get one.

You are just as likely to get fools gold.

Just because some teams make bad decisions it doesn’t mean you have to. And top 3 picks definitely have a higher success rate than any other delineated chunk of the draft you want to compare them to. Feel free to compare top 3 picks to 4-9, 10-20, or 2nd round picks, or 6th round picks………..

 

[PatsFan2]

My mind was changed last night...Zappe can be capable back up and bridge for our next QB on the cheap too.

 

[RIpats88]

Just because some teams make bad decisions it doesn’t mean you have to. And top 3 picks definitely have a higher success rate than any other delineated chunk of the draft you want to compare them to. Feel free to compare top 3 picks to 4-9, 10-20, or 2nd round picks, or 6th round picks………..

are we talking QB or other positions? current top 3 QB's started games this year...

Burrow, goff, kyler murray, bryce young, trevor lawrence, matt stafford, baker mayfield, mithcell trubisky, zach wilson

I wouldn't say its a murderers row....some decent QB's, one elite guy in burrow, some outright busts in wilson/trubisky.

 

[BHPatriot]

WAR. Tackle is pretty low on the list.

Using Pro-Adjusted Wins Above Average to examine positional value in the NFL Draft | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

Breaking down what goes into PFF's new Pro-Adjusted Wins Above Average metric and examining how NFL teams are factoring in elements of positional value with their NFL draft decisions.

www.pff.com

 

[jdlboot14]

My mind was changed last night...Zappe can be capable back up and bridge for our next QB on the cheap too.

I could see them keeping him, trading for or signing a legit FA QB, and drafting a 2nd tier QB.
Its hard to see Zappe being a long term starter, or building around him though.

 

[PatsFan2]

I could see them keeping him, trading for or signing a legit FA QB, and drafting a 2nd tier QB.
Its hard to see Zappe being a long term starter, or building around him though.

Getting a WR like Tee Higgins in FA could make a QB like Zappe life very easy. All he has to do is throw it up like jump ball Joe and say fetch go get it.

 

[Ivan]

are we talking QB or other positions? current top 3 QB's started games this year...

Burrow, goff, kyler murray, bryce young, trevor lawrence, matt stafford, baker mayfield, mithcell trubisky, zach wilson

I wouldn't say its a murderers row....some decent QB's, one elite guy in burrow, some outright busts in wilson/trubisky.

QB’s. And I’m talking all time, Elway, Manning. etc.. if the slice is going to be limited to those three picks then it it has to be a wide sample. But if you are looking the current state of the NFL the almost all of the playoff QB’s are either high first round picks or first round picks. The narrative that you can get a QB any time is ********.Teams can get fortunate and get them later, but the higher you go the more likely you are to get the QB you really want.

This years likely playoff QB’s:

Tua-High 1st
Allen-high 1st
Jackson 1st
Lawrence1st overall
Mahomes -high 1st

And Cincy and the Chargers have been in the hunt since getting the 1st overall and a high 1st at QB

Purdy 7th
Goff 1st overall
Hurst -2nd
Prescott -3rd
Mayfield -1st overall
Stafford -1st overall
Smith 2nd

 

[RIpats88]

QB’s. And I’m talking all time, Elway, Manning. etc.. if the slice is going to be limited to those three picks then it it has to be a wide sample. But if you are looking the current state of the NFL the almost all of the playoff QB’s are either high first round picks or first round picks. The narrative that you can get a QB any time is ********.Teams can get fortunate and get them later, but the higher you go the more likely you are to get the QB you really want.

This years likely playoff QB’s:

Tua-High 1st
Allen-high 1st
Jackson 1st
Lawrence1st overall
Mahomes -high 1st

And Cincy and the Chargers have been in the hunt since getting the 1st overall and a high 1st at QB

Purdy 7th
Goff 1st overall
Hurst -2nd
Prescott -3rd
Mayfield -1st overall
Stafford -1st overall
Smith 2nd

Tua and Mahomes weren't top 3 picks though. Mahomes was a #10 pick in the same draft as trubisky. Tua went #5

My point is there's a chance the the top 2 flame out and some guy who goes later is a better QB.

Alot of fans acting like it's a guarantee if we get #2 we get "the guy". There's as much a chance that player isnt even on zappes level as there is they are the next mahomes.

Obviously I want one. But I think that ship has sailed after last night...

 

[The Gr8est]

Tua and Mahomes weren't top 3 picks though. Mahomes was a #10 pick in the same draft as trubisky. Tua went #5

My point is there's a chance the the top 2 flame out and some guy who goes later is a better QB.

Alot of fans acting like it's a guarantee if we get #2 we get "the guy". There's as much a chance that player isnt even on zappes level as there is they are the next mahomes.

Obviously I want one. But I think that ship has sailed after last night...

Not sure that the ship has sailed on getting a top QB just yet.

I fully understand the allure of the draft, and I went into the game hoping for a hard fought loss, but the reality may be that the Pats gained more last night in their hard fought win, than the incremental draft position improvement would have.

The Pats will still get a shot at an elite player

The team may be rallying around Zappe, and that game winning kick could do wonders for Ryland’s confidence.

A mini streak to end the season is a nice boost going into next season.

 

[PittPatriot]

It's hard watching games wanting to see them do well...but also hoping to lose to get a higher pick. It takes the joy out of watching.
Last night was exhilarating...and it made me come back full circle to:
1. I want BB to retire a Patriot - he has continued to work hard and stay true to doing what is right for the team
2. We don't need the top 2 pick to get a reliable QB - Bailey will only get better with experience.
3. Defense is solid...without it's 2 best players (Gonzo and Judon) and it will be even more stout when all are healthy next year
4. Offense is better today than at any time the past 2 years - and that's without our top RB and WR. We can make them better in FA and Draft
5. OL will continue to improve and performed well yesterday despite all the unavailable starters.

I am excited to see how they finish out 2023 with much hope for 2024!

 

[Jim Beankie]

You can draft tackles outside of the 1st round. You can draft them in the 2nd round.

You can't draft good QBs outside the 1st round. Go back and look. Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy. 2 out of a zillion in the last 15 yrs. Good luck with that.

There are no good tackles available in FA.

The Patriots have already expended a heap of draft picks at OL, and the interior of the OL is stocked well. Onwenu needs to be signed to play RT.

The Patriots should take a tackle in the 2nd and one as a backup tackle later on.

Of course, this means the Patriots once again do NOT take a WR in the 1st round nor the 2nd round.

Good (not at least great) QBs outside of the 1st Rd in the last 15 yrs? It’s not as bleak as you make it sound, but the list is short.

In addition to Dak and Purdy (asśuming last game is an aberration), I’m seeing Hurts, Jimmy G, Russ, Geno*, Foles*, Cousins* (forgot he’s a 4th rounder), and maybe Dalton*.

* Hmmm…

I’m hoping they get a top 3 pick for a chance to pick the next Milfson, Lance, Kyler, Mayfield, Darnold, Flubinsky, (maybe Goff and Wentz), Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Griffiniii, Bradford, JaMarcus and Vince. These are the types of can’t miss franchise QBs that in 2024 wouldn’t waste the $40mil for 4 years they’d be getting and setting the team back another 3-4 years because they’d be forced to play simply because of where they were picked like N’Keal.

Counterpoint, I wouldn’t want Stroud (broken), Lawrence (broken), Burrow (broken), Luck (soooo broken), Newton (no commentary needed), Stafford (one of the few who didn’t win with original team), MattyIce (heartbroken), AlexSmith (bridge QB). Wow Cut That Meat in ‘98 25 years ago is the last top 3 pick to win a SB as the starting reg season and playoff QB with the original team! Yeah there’s his bro, but I’m being technical for dramatic effect.

 

[upstater1]

Good (not at least great) QBs outside of the 1st Rd in the last 15 yrs? It’s not as bleak as you make it sound, but the list is short.

In addition to Dak and Purdy (asśuming last game is an aberration), I’m seeing Hurts, Jimmy G, Russ, Geno*, Foles*, Cousins* (forgot he’s a 4th rounder), and maybe Dalton*.

* Hmmm…

I’m hoping they get a top 3 pick for a chance to pick the next Milfson, Lance, Kyler, Mayfield, Darnold, Flubinsky, (maybe Goff and Wentz), Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Griffiniii, Bradford, JaMarcus and Vince. These are the types of can’t miss franchise QBs that in 2024 wouldn’t waste the $40mil for 4 years they’d be getting and setting the team back another 3-4 years because they’d be forced to play simply because of where they were picked like N’Keal.

Counterpoint, I wouldn’t want Stroud (broken), Lawrence (broken), Burrow (broken), Luck (soooo broken), Newton (no commentary needed), Stafford (one of the few who didn’t win with original team), MattyIce (heartbroken), AlexSmith (bridge QB). Wow Cut That Meat in ‘98 25 years ago is the last top 3 pick to win a SB as the starting reg season and playoff QB with the original team! Yeah there’s his bro, but I’m being technical for dramatic effect.

I honestly don't count many of the guys you're listing as good.

I did this exercise yesterday and I found 7 out of 221 past the first round. Hurts, Cousins, Prescott, Purdy, Brady, Russell Wilson, Carr (if you even consider Carr good, he was the 4th pick of the 2nd rd). Not Jimmy G., not Geno (he was a bust for the Jets, a long time backup, had a great 1 year the equivalent of Case Keenum, and now Seahawk fans want him out). These are not franchise QBs.

The rate for a 1st round pick is much much higher. 10 out 26 in the last 10 years: Lawrence, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, Watson, Goff

Jury still out: Fields, Kyler Murray

Busts: Daniel Jones, Haskins, Zach Wilson, Darnold, Lance, Mac Jones, Mayfield, Rosen, Trubisky, Wentz, Lynch, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater