My Expectation this Sunday

[Deus Irae]

Not sure I agree on either of these points. If we have ANY LB (especially those two) covering Dallas Clark, he will go for 150+ and 2 TDs. The safety should be the primary guy blanketing Clark (Harrison/Sanders would be my choices, as well).

It's possible Asante WILL cover Marvin Harrison, but given that he comes into the game banged up - and even if he's not too hobbled, it's arguable he's no longer the #1 WR in Indy, anyway - Samuel should be stuck to Reggie Wayne, with Hobbs getting (loads of VITALLY NECESSARY) help on Harrison from Gay/safety not on Dallas Clark.

Why do people keep knocking Hobbs when he's done a fine job at the corner spot? And, as for who he covers this weekend, take a look at the numbers in the AFCCG last year. Neither cornerback was the problem.

 

[Tucker]

I expect:

Pats to win by at least 7

and the total points to be above 57





...I got a lot riding on this one:rocker:

 

[GuyClinch]

I think the pats will surprise people and run less then you might imagine. They will run if the Colts drop everyone in coverage - otherwise they will still pass and go for big plays.

The days of "control the ball" and keeping Peyton off the field are over, IMHO.
This team can outgun the Colts at their own game.

 

[TommyD4207]

The Colts have a choice. They can defense the pass or the run, NOT BOTH.

This is actually a great point.
The Indianapolis defense relies on Sanders playing the Safety Hybrid (or "Rover") position. If he's down in the box, SOMEONE will be open, and as much as I like future New England Patriot Marlin Jackson, even if he plays the game of his life and locks down Moss, Hayden on the other side, couldn't cover me. That would mean Bethea would have to rotate over to help, and while Sanders is chillin' in the box, either Keiaho (if he's healthy) or Hagler will have to cover Welker in the slot. Good luck with that. Should Sanders play deep in the traditional Cover 2 shell, the Colts will be lit up by multiple crossing patterns; neither Brackett nor Morris is nimble enough to get a quality jam on a receiver (without hitting him 10 yds downfield), or catch up to one running away from him; and should Watson (please please please) be healthy, he's going to embarass Morris.

The Patriots don't have this problem. They can play a base 3-4 with the 4 defensive backs in coverage. Why? Adelius Thomas. The Dalls game, or even the Washington game..both these teams LOVE to go to the TEs, but outside a couple of catches on one drive by Witten, he and Cooley were both shut down; and this is because Thomas can run with and cover these guys. Dallas Clark is the best of the bunch (and Indianapolis fans will tell you "OMG HE BEAT CHAMP BAILEY"..Bailey wasn't responsible for the coverage on that play...) I still feel confident that Thomas can keep the coverage locked.

That's why this game is a blowout. I think the key (as it usually is with Belichick against explosive offensive teams) will be Addai, and will be spied and chipped all day, limiting Manning's safety valve. If you've watched this version of the Colts, Manning dumps the ball off a LOT more than usual. I'm not worried about the "amazing" Colts running game. Not running on the Patriots, almost no one ever does.

Simply; Patriots should pretty much own the matchup on offense, simply taking what the defense gives them, and exploiting matchups at the skill positions. Normally, this is where you mention Freeney, but we're talking about a different guy since he signed his contract. 7 sacks over the last 2 seasons, and 3 of those were in one game last year against Cincinatti's rookie LT in for injury. Patriots line should have little trouble. Not like the Colts will be blitzing.

The Colts will score points, but it will be a grind. The Patriots will score points at will. It's really that simple. Patriots 52, Indianapolis 27

 

[Oswlek]

The main reason, that is the case, is the loss of Tarik Glenn at left tackle.

The Colts made this switch last year. It isn't a desperation move it was done because they finally realized that someone had to be open, not just Marv and Reggie all the time.

 

[Oswlek]

This is actually a great point.
The Indianapolis defense relies on Sanders playing the Safety Hybrid (or "Rover") position. If he's down in the box, SOMEONE will be open, and as much as I like future New England Patriot Marlin Jackson, even if he plays the game of his life and locks down Moss, Hayden on the other side, couldn't cover me. That would mean Bethea would have to rotate over to help, and while Sanders is chillin' in the box, either Keiaho (if he's healthy) or Hagler will have to cover Welker in the slot. Good luck with that. Should Sanders play deep in the traditional Cover 2 shell, the Colts will be lit up by multiple crossing patterns; neither Brackett nor Morris is nimble enough to get a quality jam on a receiver (without hitting him 10 yds downfield), or catch up to one running away from him; and should Watson (please please please) be healthy, he's going to embarass Morris.

The Patriots don't have this problem. They can play a base 3-4 with the 4 defensive backs in coverage. Why? Adelius Thomas. The Dalls game, or even the Washington game..both these teams LOVE to go to the TEs, but outside a couple of catches on one drive by Witten, he and Cooley were both shut down; and this is because Thomas can run with and cover these guys. Dallas Clark is the best of the bunch (and Indianapolis fans will tell you "OMG HE BEAT CHAMP BAILEY"..Bailey wasn't responsible for the coverage on that play...) I still feel confident that Thomas can keep the coverage locked.

That's why this game is a blowout. I think the key (as it usually is with Belichick against explosive offensive teams) will be Addai, and will be spied and chipped all day, limiting Manning's safety valve. If you've watched this version of the Colts, Manning dumps the ball off a LOT more than usual. I'm not worried about the "amazing" Colts running game. Not running on the Patriots, almost no one ever does.

Simply; Patriots should pretty much own the matchup on offense, simply taking what the defense gives them, and exploiting matchups at the skill positions. Normally, this is where you mention Freeney, but we're talking about a different guy since he signed his contract. 7 sacks over the last 2 seasons, and 3 of those were in one game last year against Cincinatti's rookie LT in for injury. Patriots line should have little trouble. Not like the Colts will be blitzing.

The Colts will score points, but it will be a grind. The Patriots will score points at will. It's really that simple. Patriots 52, Indianapolis 27

Morris is on IR and Harison was the one who covered Witten for the most part.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The Colts have a choice. They can defense the pass or the run, NOT BOTH.

I believe they will defense the run and make Brady show them he can move the chains with his WR's. Once Brady makes a couple of passes Sanders must respect the WR's and back off. Then its Maroney, Faulk and 6 min TD drives.

That worked so well for the Cowboys.

[Yeah, the Dolts probably have a better secondary than Dallas, but I think even they will have problems with the three-headed Mosskerworth monster. ]

 

[teamplay]

the three-headed Mosskerworth monster]

Love this! But perhaps it should be "Brosskerworth" -- the Br sounds more threatening!

...as for strategy, no one's mentioned Faulk. The Colts can close faster than anyone, so perhaps it's not a day for the screen game, but he's such a multi-tool weapon, it wouldn't surprise me to see him have a big day. Does anyone remember his role in the AFCCG? Time to check the tape!

 

[naclone]

this is not what I expect, but what i hope happens is that Tom Brady comes out for the second half in street clothes, along with Seymour, Moss, Vrabel and Harrison and that Cassel, Gaffney, Rivers and Evans run up the score throughout the second half.

 

[363839]

Pats are better off putting samuel on Wayne not Harrison.
Harrison has an injury on his knee.

 

[Ring 6]

I respectfully disagree since the Colts have become more a two tight end offense with the loss of Brandon Stokley. It imperative the Patriots defense stops the run with the front seven and abuses Colts rookie left tackle Tony Ugoh in pass situations.

But really theyve just turned Clark into a WR.
If they really run 2 legit TE sets, I agree with you, but I expect them to have one TE and either Clark or Gonzalez in the slot, doing what Stokely used to do.
If they are truly 3 wides (as I said Clark is usually one of the WRs even though he is a TE in name) I think we play base nickel, but if they are playing the TEs as TEs (including Hback) I agree we will play 3-4 base.

 

[Ring 6]

I think the pats will surprise people and run less then you might imagine. They will run if the Colts drop everyone in coverage - otherwise they will still pass and go for big plays.

The days of "control the ball" and keeping Peyton off the field are over, IMHO.
This team can outgun the Colts at their own game.

I dont disagree in general, we will throw as much as we want to.
Where I disagree is that I think the Colts are going to come out overplaying the pass. We will tear them apart with the run if they fear the passing game.

In any event we will be balanced, but the balance will tilt toward what schemes they are playing.
I think our game plan will be to throw to make them leave the run open. They are a respecatable pass defense, that we no doubt can move the ball up and down the field on, just like we have against everyone else, but if their run D does not have reinforcement (and the DL is bent on rushing the QB) it is awful.
I think BB looks at this defense, and asks what can we do best if we influence them to play honest or sell out one way or the other. And I think he sees a terribly undersized defense that has a penchant to ignore the run to get to the QB.
If you take a step back and say this: If we could choose a defense to get them in that we would destroy, it seems most obvious that its their base 4-3 cover2 with the safeties back in fear of our WRs, and the DL geeked up to rush the QB. I think getting to that point will be a facet of our gameplan, and I also think they will start the game that way.

 

[Ring 6]

The Colts made this switch last year. It isn't a desperation move it was done because they finally realized that someone had to be open, not just Marv and Reggie all the time.

The Colts IMO, made a dramatic philosophical change late last season and into the playoffs.
They decided that they needed to control possession to help their D. They decided that they needed to commit to stopping the run early, but also play from ahead. Manning changed before our eyes from a guy who dropped back thinking how can I make a huge play, to a guy dropping back and saying how can I kill them, quickly or slowly.

The Colts would have been one and done in the playoffs last year if they played the playoffs the way they played the regular season. They had evolved into playing as if they were ahead by 21 points from the opening KO, going for the throat, treating the other team as if they were in a catchup, throw every down mode. When the playoffs started they became methodical and broke the mold of their tendencies on both sides of the ball.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Wot a thread!!!!!!!!!!:rocker:

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

I think we will, but I also think we will call the game based on what they play on D. If they gameplan to not allow us to go on long time consuming drives, there will be plenty of holes in the secondary for more of our 3-5 play TD drives.
I'm guessing we run more than normal this week only because I expect the Colts to come out expecting us to throw.

Maroney 200 yards? - WTF?
Give me a sniff of whatever you are smoking - geeezzzz

Now saying Brady will throw for 400 yards is realistic - This will be a shootout through the air as anticipated - Bank on it.

 

[Ring 6]

Maroney 200 yards? - WTF?
Give me a sniff of whatever you are smoking - geeezzzz

Now saying Brady will throw for 400 yards is realistic - This will be a shootout through the air as anticipated - Bank on it.

Depending on how the Colts play D 200 from Maroney may be more likely than 400 from Brady. The Colts defense has been known to give up 375 rushing yards in a game.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

What killed me in the November 2006 game was how the Pats gave away their play calls simply by their formations. Whenever Brady got under center with a running back behind him, it was pretty much a running play. On passing plays, Brady was almost always in shotgun with no RB anywhere near him. I thought it was one of McDaniels' worst coaching jobs, considering the way to beat an overpursuing Colts D was to cross them up...let them think pass then kill them with the run and vice versa.

I hope to see a RB behind or next to Brady at all times, forcing the Colts to respect the run when the Pats are actually passing. Inside handoffs from shotgun or plenty of play-action from under center will kill this Indy team considering the weapons the Pats have this time around.

Regards,
Chris

 

[psychoPat]

It's a tremendous thread - alongside several others in the past day or two.
Especially welcome after the board seemed to be getting clogged with a lot of crud.

This is mainly a stab at synthesis of what's above ... not much new contribution.
Are we converging on expecting?:

D.
A rotissiere of DBs trying to contain Wayne/Harrison/Gonzalez ...
Rodney specially tasked to Dallas Clark ...
AD left to "spy and chip" Addai (this is new. No one has said so.) ...
with the remainder of the front seven concentrating on stopping the run
and trying to hurry Peyton whenever they can defeat the uncalled holding.

O.
Willing to take whatever the Colts' defensive tendencies disclose
with our arsenal of new weapons ...
and attacking with more than the usual deception and misdirection.
We played the Cowboys with only one screen pass (that i recall) ... which may have been
a lab experiment for this game. (Someone suggested scant screening Sunday.)

The big diff this time being that it is
Indy's braintrust that has to worry about facing the dominant offense.