My Blueprint for the Defense

[everlong]

Or Zach Kerr. Either has the potential to be outstanding. Look at Damon "Big Snacks" Harrison - he was a UDFA in 2012, and was an impact run stopper last year. You can find dominant run stoppers on day 3, or even as UDFAs. And Sealver Siliga has the potential to develop into a Harrison-type run stopper. Last year was the first time he really got on the field and into a consistent situation, and he has plenty of room to develop.

I'd still rather have a guy like Ellis who on occasion is athletic enough to use his athletic ability to shoot a gap and blow up a play. I know Kerr has good numbers on the drills but I don't like his tape as much as Ellis. But yes I more or less agree with your premise. There's no reason to over draft a Mount Cody when there's guys down the draft board every bit as good.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I'd still rather have a guy like Ellis who on occasion is athletic enough to use his athletic ability to shoot a gap and blow up a play. I know Kerr has good numbers on the drills but I don't like his tape as much as Ellis. But yes I more or less agree with your premise. There's no reason to over draft a Mount Cody when there's guys down the draft board every bit as good.

Pretty much ok with Ellis, Kerr, Reid or Sutton. All have shown glimpses to get into the backfield.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yep, I think Armstead will surprise people but more pass rushers can never hurt.

Agreed. Seattle was subbing them in and out all season long like a well oiled machine. Whether is another 3-tech pass rusher or a DE like Ealy, Murphy, etc., we need at least two more by my estimation. The Patriots now have an elite secondary. With a big bodied SS that can tackle (McGill and Exum for CB conversion, KPL has grown on me as a hybrid) and a couple of more young and capable pass rushers, they can have the best defense in the NFL.

 

[patchick]

I came across this article by Mike Dassault of Pats' Propaganda, written just after the AFCCG loss to the Broncos:

...

1. The interior pass rush:



2. The sub rusher position:



3. Retaining Aqib Talib:



#3 has been addressed beyond our wildest dreams with the FA acquisitions of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. I don't think those acquisitions were made to run a primary zone defense.

#1 and #2 remain issues to be addressed. #1 is why I'm so eager to get a disruptor like Aaron Donald or Dominique Easley who can blow up plays on the front end.

Meanwhile #2, sub rusher, seems to be the least discussed of the "need areas" around here. Are we content with Michael Buchanan as the top backup at DE? Are we counting on Armstead (who the Patriots list as a DE on their roster)?

Focusing on the long frames the Pats seem to target right now, and looking for some versatility rather than a pure Marc Anderson-type sub rushers, I could see picks like:

Round 2: Trent Murphy
Round 4-5: Will Clarke
Round 6: Zach Moore

 

[mayoclinic]

Meanwhile #2, sub rusher, seems to be the least discussed of the "need areas" around here. Are we content with Michael Buchanan as the top backup at DE? Are we counting on Armstead (who the Patriots list as a DE on their roster)?

Focusing on the long frames the Pats seem to target right now, and looking for some versatility rather than a pure Marc Anderson-type sub rushers, I could see picks like:

Round 2: Trent Murphy
Round 4-5: Will Clarke
Round 6: Zach Moore

I think the biggest question is whether the Pats need a true "sub rusher" or more of a DE rotation. I tend to lean towards the latter as a higher priority, though the former is clearly important as well.

I think that if the Pats are looking for a true "sub rusher" that we'd be more likely to see guys like Marcus Smith and Jeremiah Attaochu. But I agree with you that they are probably looking for someone with more versatility and potential to play in the base defense. Murphy and Will Clarke are two of the more intriguing players for that role; Zach Moore is a true sleeper, but an intriguing one. Aaron Lynch has looked terrible in the pre-draft process, but is still an option the later he falls. Taylor Hart is intriguing.

IMO, Armond Armstead and Michael Buchanan are two of the bigger wild cards on defense. If either of those guys can make a significant contribution, it will be huge. Both guys have a lot of talent - whether they can get on the field and harness it consistently is another issue.

 

[everlong]

Round 2: Trent Murphy

The problem I have with Murphy is I really don't think he's an upgrade over Jake Bequette. They're similar effort type of guys with ok but not outstanding athleticism.

Bequette 275LB, 6'5", 4.82 40, 34 VJ, 113 BJ, 6.9 3C, 4.07 SS
Murphy 250LB, 6'5", 4.78 40, 35.5 VJ, 118 VJ, 6.78 3C, 4.20 SS

At 25 pounds lighter his numbers aren't that much better. I can't find a bench press for JB but Murphy only had 19 reps. I think Murphy like Bequette plays stiff and high. Not only doesn't he have burst in the passing game but he lacks sand in the pants to hold up against the run. As a positive he can drop in zone coverage. If you ask him to put on some weight that probably kills the speed he does have.

I know there's people on here that like him but I really see JBII.

 

[everlong]

I think that if the Pats are looking for a true "sub rusher" that we'd be more likely to see guys like Marcus Smith and Jeremiah Attaochu. But I agree with you that they are probably looking for someone with more versatility and potential to play in the base defense. Murphy and Will Clarke are two of the more intriguing players for that role.

I much prefer Smith or Attaochu to Murphy or Clarke.

 

[patchick]

I think the biggest question is whether the Pats need a true "sub rusher" or more of a DE rotation. I tend to lean towards the latter as a higher priority, though the former is clearly important as well.

I think that if the Pats are looking for a true "sub rusher" that we'd be more likely to see guys like Marcus Smith and Jeremiah Attaochu. But I agree with you that they are probably looking for someone with more versatility and potential to play in the base defense. Murphy and Will Clarke are two of the more intriguing players for that role; Zach Moore is a true sleeper, but an intriguing one. Aaron Lynch has looked terrible in the pre-draft process, but is still an option the later he falls. Taylor Hart is intriguing.

IMO, Armond Armstead and Michael Buchanan are two of the bigger wild cards on defense. If either of those guys can make a significant contribution, it will be huge. Both guys have a lot of talent - whether they can get on the field and harness it consistently is another issue.

It's also worth remembering that Rob Ninkovich is 30 years old, and they rely on his stability, leadership and versatility a LOT. If it's time to start developing a Ninkovich heir, Murphy seems like the type.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's also worth remembering that Rob Ninkovich is 30 years old, and they rely on his stability, leadership and versatility a LOT. If it's time to start developing a Ninkovich heir, Murphy seems like the type.

That was my original take 3 months ago, when Murphy was one of my top rated prospects. I still like his intangibles, intelligence, versatility and toughness, but I think he's more of a developmental DE prospect. He needs to put on 15-25 lbs. of good weight, get much stronger in his upper body, and develop his technique playing on the line and from a 3 point stance. Ninkovich took 3-4 years to develop, and I wouldn't be surprised if it takes Murphy a couple of years. Not what I want right now, much as I still like the player.

The problem I have with Murphy is I really don't think he's an upgrade over Jake Bequette. They're similar effort type of guys with ok but not outstanding athleticism.

Bequette 275LB, 6'5", 4.82 40, 34 VJ, 113 BJ, 6.9 3C, 4.07 SS
Murphy 250LB, 6'5", 4.78 40, 35.5 VJ, 118 VJ, 6.78 3C, 4.20 SS

At 25 pounds lighter his numbers aren't that much better. I can't find a bench press for JB but Murphy only had 19 reps. I think Murphy like Bequette plays stiff and high. Not only doesn't he have burst in the passing game but he lacks sand in the pants to hold up against the run. As a positive he can drop in zone coverage. If you ask him to put on some weight that probably kills the speed he does have.

I know there's people on here that like him but I really see JBII.

See the above. I think that Murphy's drive, motor, intelligence, toughness and versatility set him aside from Bequette, but I do think that he is more of a developmental prospect as a full time DE, and that his timeframe to impact is too far out for my liking at this point. I wouldn't bet against him in the long run, but I don't want a DE who is going to take 2 years to develop. I wouldn't be against the pick (depending on how high), but he's currently on my list of players that I like who I don't particularly think are good fits for what we need.

 

[patchick]

I much prefer Smith or Attaochu to Murphy or Clarke.

I really like Smith as a player, but I can't picture him becoming an every-down 4-3 end.

 

[mayoclinic]

I really like Smith as a player, but I can't picture him becoming an every-down 4-3 end.

Again, it depends on what you're looking for. Clarke or Murphy (bulked up) have more potential as rotational base ends. Smith and Attaochu have more explosiveness, and project better as sub rushers with some OLB versatility.

 

[everlong]

See the above. I think that Murphy's drive, motor, intelligence, toughness and versatility set him aside from Bequette, but I do think that he is more of a developmental prospect as a full time DE, and that his timeframe to impact is too far out for my liking at this point. I wouldn't bet against him in the long run, but I don't want a DE who is going to take 2 years to develop. I wouldn't be against the pick (depending on how high), but he's currently on my list of players that I like who I don't particularly think are good fits for what we need.

Perhaps but if that's the case you don't draft him in the second round. If he falls to the 4th than perhaps.

 

[mayoclinic]

Perhaps but if that's the case you don't draft him in the second round. If he falls to the 4th than perhaps.

I agree. You'll notice he doesn't show up in my blueprint or mocks anymore.

 

[everlong]

I really like Smith as a player, but I can't picture him becoming an every-down 4-3 end.

Again, it depends on what you're looking for. Clarke or Murphy (bulked up) have more potential as rotational base ends. Smith and Attaochu have more explosiveness, and project better as sub rushers with some OLB versatility.

I think Smith offers the ability to play end on passing downs but is smaller than Bill likes for an every down DE. However I think he can also play OLB in a 3-4 and drop in coverage and can play both the Will and Sam in a 4-3 although not a perfect fit for either. He's definitely a tweener which will probably have him drop to the 3rd or maybe even the 4th round but I think Bill will like how versatile he can be.

 

[BobDigital]

Meanwhile #2, sub rusher, seems to be the least discussed of the "need areas" around here. Are we content with Michael Buchanan as the top backup at DE? Are we counting on Armstead (who the Patriots list as a DE on their roster)?

Focusing on the long frames the Pats seem to target right now, and looking for some versatility rather than a pure Marc Anderson-type sub rushers, I could see picks like:

Round 2: Trent Murphy
Round 4-5: Will Clarke
Round 6: Zach Moore

In some ways getting a 3rd DE is more important than getting that Star DT.

I think the Patriots can win with Jones/Nink/Good DE with Kelly/Siliga/Jones manning DT.

However I don't think this team can win with a worn out Jones/Nink without an a good option behind them even if we have Aaron Donald.

That is not to say I think we should not draft a top DT with our first pick if available but DE clearly needs to be addressed IMO if this team is going to win it all.

 

[mayoclinic]

In some ways getting a 3rd DE is more important than getting that Star DT.

I think the Patriots can win with Jones/Nink/Good DE with Kelly/Siliga/Jones manning DT.

However I don't think this team can win with a worn out Jones/Nink without an a good option behind them even if we have Aaron Donald.

That is not to say I think we should not draft a top DT with our first pick if available but DE clearly needs to be addressed IMO if this team is going to win it all.

It's a very weak DE draft. I'm not sure you're going to find a rookie who can be a significant immediate contributor in the base DE. I think it's more likely that Armstead and Buchanan become actual contributors, and that the Pats sign a relatively low-cost rotational DE (Corey Wootton, or even Will Smith once he gets healthier). It's possible that the Pats will get lucky and that someone like Aaron Lynch, Will Clarke, Taylor Hart or Zach Moore will turn out to be an unexpected diamond, but I wouldn't count on it.

 

[BobDigital]

It's a very weak DE draft. I'm not sure you're going to find a rookie who can be a significant immediate contributor in the base DE. I think it's more likely that Armstead and Buchanan become actual contributors, and that the Pats sign a relatively low-cost rotational DE (Corey Wootton, or even Will Smith once he gets healthier). It's possible that the Pats will get lucky and that someone like Aaron Lynch, Will Clarke, Taylor Hart or Zach Moore will turn out to be an unexpected diamond, but I wouldn't count on it.

Well the good news is we don't need THAT good of a DE. We just need a decent rotational player who can get some pressure. It can be done with a relatively low cost FA or even a pass rush specialist DE later in the draft IMO.

I just think the need here can not be understated. It doesn't mean we need Jared Allen to win though because I don't believe we do.

 

[mayoclinic]

Well the good news is we don't need THAT good of a DE. We just need a decent rotational player who can get some pressure. It can be done with a relatively low cost FA or even a pass rush specialist DE later in the draft IMO.

I just think the need here can not be understated. It doesn't mean we need Jared Allen to win though because I don't believe we do.

I agree. I've been arguing for the importance of a rotational DE for months.

I could easily see someone like Will Smith being brought in for a veteran minimum base deal, with incentives. I doubt a move like that would happen until until he is physically ready. I also think a guy like Corey Wootton could be an option.

 

[BobDigital]

I agree. I've been arguing for the importance of a rotational DE for months.

I could easily see someone like Will Smith being brought in for a veteran minimum base deal, with incentives. I doubt a move like that would happen until until he is physically ready. I also think a guy like Corey Wootton could be an option.

Out of all the more feasible options what is your preference?

 

[mayoclinic]

Out of all the more feasible options what is your preference?

I wouldn't be in a rush to resolve the situation right now. Let the market sort itself out. I assume Jared Allen is out of the range of possibility, and most of the other options aren't no-brainers. If the Pats really thought that Robert Ayers or Corey Wootton was the answer, I think they would have shown some interest. There are some injured guys (Will Smith and Anthony Spencer) who could be good values if they can get healthy.

I think the Pats will probably go into the draft pretty much as they are, unless an opportunity presents itself, and see how things play out, and look at who they have in minicamp/OTAs. After that, I would expect them to get aggressive.