First, let me just agree with the majority on the question of Kevin Faulk. He's a utility guy, and really good at a lot of things. In this season of insane fantasy stats, bear in mind that ranking Faulk against running backs makes no sense. He's not the featured back, he's a change-of-pace back, plus role player in a variety of roles. Notice too Maroney SUCKS in the TD department. Why? Because right now we're passing for way more TDs than running. Measure him in YPC, and he's fine. And don't make the mistake of measuring him against draft classmates used a different way -- Addai being the prime example. To simplify: the Colts tried to become us, and we tried to become them. They're now dependent on a back instead of a QB/receiving corps. We've got the record-pace QB. Plus ca change...
Okay, now let's remove the distortion lens of our present sicko wideout exhilaration, and discuss who we have in context. What do these guys bring?
- Chad Jackson. Potential, for those who still believe. We may get some peaks before this season is over. No big decision to make until 2010. Can he become the #3 (yes, I said #3,) that Stallworth is (in reality)?
- Stallworth. We have a big bill coming due for Stallworth this offseason/next season. We finally started getting him involved around the 3rd or 4th game this season. He's a YAC beast, and would have been a #1 or "1a" receiver on this team last year. But pro-rate the salary and bonus, and you're looking at a $6M/year bill for him, year in and year out, until 2012. Upside: He's young (27), relative to Moss (30). Moss might well still be around in 2012, playing as a great receiver rather than a physics-defying all-time all-world receiver. Stallworth? He's a good receiver who might blossom into a great. If you see Stallworth becoming the focus in the 2nd half of the year, that might be a sign of the team figuring out the Stallworth contract, since it is written to be shelved in a year, if desired.
- Moss -- if he wasn't sand-bagging on money, we sign him. It is possible -- though from on-field attitude, and from his 1st year NE deal, it does not seem likely -- but it is possible Moss will try to break the bank one last time.
That would present quite the connundrum. If he wants to skyrocket back up to that $10M+/annum range, I just don't know. If he wants to play at more like a $7M/annum range, it's a no-brainer.
- Welker's locked in at a decent price.
Are we seeing a great WR pickup offseason shaping the team in 07, or are we seeing a shift in philosophy (i.e., have the rules changes and "emphasis" driven us to ditch the sandbox field for a fast track, loaded up on the aerial attack... or have we just smartly taken what the market bestowed upon us?)
After all, a few years ago Cinci coughed up a phlegmball named Corey Dillon, and we rode him to the Super Bowl. Obviously, the Moss story has the same basic flavor to it.
Did the market drive the philosophy, or was the philosophy driven prior to the market, with the market falling into place?
I'm sure it's a combination, but next offseason the FO gets to decide: having structured all these WR deals with "prove-it" years (except, significantly, the Welker deal,) what are we willing to sacrifice to make it all work?
We need to decide on Stallworth this coming year, or restructure him to buy time. As it stands, there's $6M due to Stallworth Feb. 28, 08. He'd make 11M total in 08 and 16M between 08 and 09.
Kelly Washington thus far just hasn't had a shot at proving his worth. At a cap cost of $5M+ for 2008, I think we restructure or ditch him, unless he shows a lot in the 2nd half of this year.
I don't think Jabar Gaffney becomes a financial challenge. Wes Welker, a great bang-for-the-buck guy, is signed to cap-friendly numbers for a long time.
What we have going on here is a lot of lines dangled at a lot of receivers, because our leading receiver last year was a glandular freak who couldn't keep his eye on the ball, despite the fact that they were about the same size. (PS, I love Reche for playing at the top of his game all last year. Trouble is we need a #1 with a different top.) The Front Office has had the discussion (I guarantee this much,) where they say "what if we throw them at the wall, and they all stick? What if all of this pans out?" And of course, the answer was "Nice problem to have." Well, it looks like we'll have that problem.
Here's where the FO decides on the future complexion of this team: Is a WR corps worth say, $20-25M+ (Randy, 7-10M; Stallworth, 6M; Welker, 4M = the range of 20M/annum just for 3 guys) in cap room, year in and year out? Who do we lose to make that happen?
There's Vince and Seymour to think about in 2010 (and if you think we'll just plug in Jarvis Green, that's when he comes due too.) Wilfork and Green are cheap right now... so right there you are looking at guys who will command AT LEAST $3-5M each/annum ABOVE their 2009 hit the moment they are signed. And those are just examples from one unit, the D Line. Also in 2010, AD goes up in cost $3M/annum to $9.4M at linebacker. And of course, Tommy will be eating up north of $14M in both 08 and 09, downshifting to about $10M in 2010.
I guess what I am getting at is, we're looking at a total pie that will be maybe $130M by 2010. That being the case, the Tommy-to-Your-Name-Here connection is due to be costing us $35M, with the rest of the team getting the scraps.
Maybe that's why God invented restructuring, but I don't think that gets it done (unless none of these guys - or their agents - care about money.) I think what happened is we structured Stallworth and Washington on the "prove-it" theory, and then blundered into Moss, at an absurdly cheap intro rate.
Something tells me Randy has alligator ARMs, as in adjustable rate mortgage. It's about to reflect the market once our one-year low low intro period is up... so we have to figure out if we can really afford that summer place in the Hamptons too.
PFnV
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