It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[MoLewisrocks]

Please remember that on the morning of the deadline to sign a long-term deal, Wes Welker is the #1 most expensive player on the roster in 2012. His $9.523 million dollar contract is the biggest cap hit on the 90 man roster heading into camp, more than $1.2 million greater than Tom Brady's this year.

No tears should be shed for Mr. Welker.

The franchise tag cuts both ways. Every dollar is guaranteed and is a huge risk to the team. The player has time-limited employment but is being compensated for the work he does at the highest level.

I agree with many who feel a three-year deal at $8M to $9M annually with a majority of that guaranteed should be on the table (maybe it is), but I have no sympathy for Mr. Welker and his agent if they play the disrespected or unappreciated card.

I wish somebody would un-appreciate me for $9,523,120 this year.

And if they did a 3-4 year deal they could lower that cap hit, that's their choice, not his. FWIW Brady is the most expensive player on the roster, scheduled to take up $17M against the cap until they opted to convert $10M of his 2012 salary and bonus to signing bonus and pay it out up front while enabling them to spread the hits across the remaining 2 years of his contract which will now have $22M cap hits going forward in exchange for an artificially low cap hit this season. They could give Welker a 4 year $32M deal with $20M guaranteed and take a cap hit as low as $6M if they wanted to this season. The cap is all about contract structure and that is a team decision.

If you agree he's worth 3 years at that kind of money, then you're being somewhat diningenuous to claim not offering anything that approaches that isn't disrespectful or unappreciative.

I wish someone would direspect me to the tune of $9.5M too, but I also realize it would be impossible to because I possess no talent remotely worth it. Wes does.

 

[BradyManny]

Being close friends and having unfinished business has nothing to do with getting a 3 year deal.

Producing at the level he is paid and projecting that into the future has everything to do with it.

But that has nothing to do with the point Kontra was making or I was reinforcing. It was merely a comment on how Brady might view the situation.

 

[Deus Irae]

This is one of those cases where we Pats Fans have to keep two apparently contradictory ideas in our heads at the same time and, somehow, manage to reconcile them.

1) Welker is the Pats' #1, go-to, highly effective, highly efficient WR, without whom their offense would look very different and Tom Brady would be one unhappy camper.

2) The Pats have decided that they will not expose themselves financially to Welker for more than one year at a time at the Franchise Tag rate or, over multiple years, for more than a set amount of money that is, reportedly, well below what Welker wants (whatever those two amounts might be).

Personally, I'm having a hard time reconciling them and have to take it on faith that this is the best for the team and Brady at this time; "In Kraft and BB, I trust" (despite that whole dance and dumb skit thing).

Never take that on faith. They've shown, many times, that such faith is no longer warranted.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes if they don't result in 1st downs which is a big reason why the Pats are even considering paying Welker. If WW has a ton of catches and his 1st down % is awful then why pay the guy?

Because you just made that up?

 

[Ring 6]

To suggest that every single play goes to WW is outlandish.

Yes it is which is why I didn't suggest that/.

There is no guessing to what is going on with this offense. Especially when you have a TE put up the numbers he did last year.

Apparently there is because you are trying to argue the structure of the offense and plays is something different than it is.

YPC is a critical number for a WR who spends his life making 1st downs w/ YAC.

Wouldn't first downs be a mopre critical number for a guy making 1st downs?

 

[Ring 6]

Right now, I'd say the offense is built (besides Brady, obviously) around Welker and GRONK in about equal measure.

I'm not talking about who they try to or do get the ball to. I'm talking about play design and the structure of the offense. Everything works off of Welkers role.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't see that the odds are against him at all. First, Welker's game does not and never has relied on getting open through pure speed. His game and his ability to get open rely on a few things...

1. Shiftyness in the open field.

2. Razor sharp precise route running.

3. Vulcan like mind connection with Brady.

Only one of those things would even seem to dissipate within three years, and that's his shiftyness in the open field. However, that's nowhere near a certainty. Welker has only had one major injury in his career and has rebounded to have a career year. The other two do not dissipate with time. So, basing any argument on his future production falling off being the chief reason to not sign him is, well, futile. Nothing about the way he plays shows us any signs of Welker slowing down.

We'll disagree here. Providing he does sign a 3 year deal, the odds of him being the same player at 33 that he was at 30 are against him.

I'd suggest that you take a look at the history of NFL wide receivers. A vast majority of them are more productive and stay healthier at 30 than 33. Only exceptions I can think of that are like WW and don't rely on straigh-line speed who played the slot quite a bit are Derrick Mason who was very productive through his mid 30s, Ricky Proehl and maybe Pat Tilley but he blew out his knee at 32 but was very good at 31.

I love WW but you must understand why the Pats are hesitant in giving him a 3-yr deal.

 

[RobertWeathers]

But that has nothing to do with the point Kontra was making or I was reinforcing. It was merely a comment on how Brady might view the situation.

OK but it seemed to me that you called that out as a factor in the FOs decision to extend WW.

 

[Kontradiction]

By the way, as you all know I'm completely and utterly narcissistic. With that in mind, I'd like to take the time to announce to everyone that I'm back on a somewhat regular basis. :youtheman:

 

[RobertWeathers]

Because you just made that up?

I'm not making up anything.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

That's a copout. What makes you believe that Welker won't be producing like that in three years?

I hope we pay the man and think that he can keep it up, in this offense.

The more important question is whether another team values him as much in their offense, three years from now.

For all we know the Patriots may be thinking "His value to us is 3 years / 27 million, but other teams have more uncertainty about his age and fit for their system, and likely would be offering more in the 7-8 million dollar range. Therefore, considering the young starters due pay raises in the next two years, lets take our chances that on the open market next offseason, Wes finds this to be the case and will accept 2/18 at that time"

Sadly, Wes putting up huge numbers this year might make it less likely for him to return. Still I want 130 catches, 1600 yards, pro bowl, super bowl ring. Then we say bye, thanks, and good luck. It will be sad to see him go, but people will always be exiting given that the pile of money is limited.

 

[robbomango]

Please remember that on the morning of the deadline to sign a long-term deal, Wes Welker is the #1 most expensive player on the roster in 2012. His $9.523 million dollar contract is the biggest cap hit on the 90 man roster heading into camp, more than $1.2 million greater than Tom Brady's this year.

No tears should be shed for Mr. Welker.

The franchise tag cuts both ways. Every dollar is guaranteed and is a huge risk to the team. The player has time-limited employment but is being compensated for the work he does at the highest level.

I agree with many who feel a three-year deal at $8M to $9M annually with a majority of that guaranteed should be on the table (maybe it is), but I have no sympathy for Mr. Welker and his agent if they play the disrespected or unappreciated card.

I wish somebody would un-appreciate me for $9,523,120 this year.

When people are at the top of their field in any given profession and are doing more, they want more, whether that number is $35,000 a year or 9.5 million a year.

Sure I won't complain if someone drops 10 mil on my lap tomorrow but then again I'm not Wes Welker.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yes it is which is why I didn't suggest that/.

You've suggested it and said it in every post. Design, play calls, offensive structure and when he gets open he gets the ball. WW is a big part of the offense no doubt but I don't think the Pats would have paid Gronk what they did as a 2nd option for Brady. WW is a big piece of the offense as well which is why they tagged him. If he was "everything" as you characterize they wouldn't be jerking him around.

Apparently there is because you are trying to argue the structure of the offense and plays is something different than it is.

Gronk has a greater share in the offensive system & play calling than WW because he more efficient and productive. Scheme, play design, looks, structure, etc. WW is of tremendous importance to the offense but it doesn't run though him.

Wouldn't first downs be a mopre critical number for a guy making 1st downs?

Huh? We're talking about WW production and his value to the offense. If the play is designed for WW or whomever for a 1st down and the player doesn't make it, the coaches look at the film and say that it's the WR, QB, O line or other WR who didn't do their job and make the determination who didn't do their job on the play.

 

[Deus Irae]

...I wish somebody would un-appreciate me for $9,523,120 this year.

When posters get past this sort of nonsense, discussions about players and contracts will finally be able to be based in reason instead of silliness, pettiness and jealousy. It'll be a great day for message boards.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Age Study: NFL Wide Receivers



Note: If a player's birthday occurred during the season, then that entire season would be counted under the age in which he turned. Ex: Reggie Wayne turned 31 mid-season in November 2009 so his entire 2009 season is classified at the age of 31.

http://stats-dont-lie.blogspot.com/2010/03/age-study-nfl-wide-receivers.html


After age 32 , wide receivers production declines rapidly.

 

[Kontradiction]

We'll disagree here. Providing he does sign a 3 year deal, the odds of him being the same player at 33 that he was at 30 are against him.

No they're not, as has just been pointed out to you. If he relied on pure speed alone to get open, ala DeSean Jackson, then I would agree you.

I'd suggest that you take a look at the history of NFL wide receivers. A vast majority of them are more productive and stay healthier at 30 than 33. Only exceptions I can think of that are like WW and don't rely on straigh-line speed who played the slot quite a bit are Derrick Mason who was very productive through his mid 30s, Ricky Proehl and maybe Pat Tilley but he blew out his knee at 32 but was very good at 31.

You just destroyed your own argument.

I love WW but you must understand why the Pats are hesitant in giving him a 3-yr deal.

I don't. And all arguments to that effect have been pretty inconsistent with reality as well. Going by the "age" logic, the Pats shouldn't have offered Brady a contract either. But that's irrelevant to the topic at hand...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Please remember that on the morning of the deadline to sign a long-term deal, Wes Welker is the #1 most expensive player on the roster in 2012. His $9.523 million dollar contract is the biggest cap hit on the 90 man roster heading into camp, more than $1.2 million greater than Tom Brady's this year.

No tears should be shed for Mr. Welker.

The franchise tag cuts both ways. Every dollar is guaranteed and is a huge risk to the team. The player has time-limited employment but is being compensated for the work he does at the highest level.

I agree with many who feel a three-year deal at $8M to $9M annually with a majority of that guaranteed should be on the table (maybe it is), but I have no sympathy for Mr. Welker and his agent if they play the disrespected or unappreciated card.

I wish somebody would un-appreciate me for $9,523,120 this year.

That reads a lot more into my remarks than I intended or I think was there.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Age Study: NFL Wide Receivers



Note: If a player's birthday occurred during the season, then that entire season would be counted under the age in which he turned. Ex: Reggie Wayne turned 31 mid-season in November 2009 so his entire 2009 season is classified at the age of 31.

Stats Don't Lie: Age Study: NFL Wide Receivers


After age 32 , wide receivers production declines rapidly.

Welcome to the forum, and good first post. That's pretty much the reason I don't care for Wes on a long-term deal. A 2 year deal would be nice, but that money is better off spent going to Hernandez.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Can we just go ahead and say WW is NOT like most other 32 year old receivers...can we just go ahead and say that, let's all go ahead and try...

After all the debating is done, I hope we get him for three year deal at a price that is good for everyone....thank you Captain Obvious....

All this crap about him getting old...seriously.

He has gotten licked so many times and got right back up. Where is THIS value to the team being measured? What message does that send to your team, how do you think that motivates your team when one of the smallest dudes get lite up and he bounces right back up. What about his value in NE with TFB, and his knowledge of the system? I mean come on...

This is my team however I would be very very disappointed if they walk away from this without a deal. Wes deserves a deal, Wes deserves at the very least a 3 year deal. Wes is durable for at least three more years. Take 83 away and the other 3 may not be at that spot when the ball is in the air.

This is absolutely pathetic...

 

[Deus Irae]

Per @seankjensen, the ‪#Bears‬ have agreed to terms on a long-term contract with RB Matt Forte.

https://twitter.com/ProFootballWkly/statuses/224905003222056960