It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[PatsWSB47]

Wes Welker SB MVP Feb 2013

I could live with that

 

[Joker]

The Revenge Catch Tour!

 

[ausbacker]

Welker is more than just a "slot receiver" and you do him and yourself a great injustice by saying it. Welker lines up all over the place. He lined up as the X,Y, and Z receiver. Yes, he does his best work over the middle, but he also draws double teams on a regular basis and STILL puts up 110+ receptions a year.

People thinking that Welker is only a product of the Patriots are ignoring what Welker did despite the 3 different QBs he had in Miami prior to his joining the Pats. If you think that Welker will magically become only a 50 reception guy because he won't have Brady, then you are kidding yourself. Welker will be a solid #2 receiver on most teams.

The lack of respect and disregard for the importance of Wes Welker from factions of the Patriots fandom confounds.

The guy has performed every year for the Patriots. He is a huge reason why the Patriots are who they are today. Hell, the guy even stepped up when Randy Moss went loco on the Patriots.

Not bad for just a slot receiver.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

That's it. I'm not going to shower until a deal is reached.

 

[DaBruinz]

maybe it confuses you....

the pats FOUND a way to limit welker......actually more than one.......they're called lloyd and gaffney....over 1900 yards between em last year. these guys are going to get their yards, and they're going to come from somewhere .... an impact on welkers numbers is the likely first place many of these yards are going to come from

Some people need to be reminded that the last time Gaffney was here, his BEST season was 38 receptions for 468 yards.

It remains to be seen how Lloyd will do. But, guess what. When the Pats had MOSS, Welker was still getting 110+ receptions a season.. Oh, and it's just as likely that Gronk and Hernandez will lose out on some receptions to Floyd as it will Welker.

Gaffney, at best, will be the 5th receiving option behind Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, and Lloyd. So, he's probably looking at about 30-38 receptions. And that could come from a combination of what Deion Branch and Chad Johnson had without any issue.

 

[jah]

Some people need to be reminded that the last time Gaffney was here, his BEST season was 38 receptions for 468 yards.

It remains to be seen how Floyd will do. But, guess what. When the Pats had MOSS, Welker was still getting 110+ receptions a season.. Oh, and it's just as likely that Gronk and Hernandez will lose out on some receptions to Floyd as it will Welker.

Gaffney, at best, will be the 5th receiving option behind Welker, Gronk, Hernandez, and Floyd. So, he's probably looking at about 30-38 receptions. And that could come from a combination of what Deion Branch and Chad Johnson had without any issue.

Floyd?

 

[DaBruinz]

Floyd?

Yeah.. I fubared that.. It's fixed.. I meant LLoyd..

 

[Fencer]

Welker is an awesome football player, who deserves and will receive an enormous salary.

 

[NYCPatsFan]

In addition to his skills, grit and team-first mentality, I admire the fact that he's unlike some talented but remorseless players who after merely a season or two of great performance don't hesitate to hold the team and fans under ransom by holding out unless their contract is upped.

Hope WW and the FO work out something to have this loyal foot solider with us for some more time.

 

[naF staP]

Which examples do you have in mind? Branch? Moss? Welker himself?

For Branch are we talking first time or second time? As for Moss, he had like two routes, go long and go longer so not a very valid point, imo. Look at Edelman, he has been with the Pats for a while he still doesn't seem to have the field reads that Wes has nor as in tune with Brady as Welker is. It's not very often you can bring a player in and they pick up the offense quickly and are able to be in tune with Brady like he is. It's remarkable the chemistry these two have.

 

[Ring 6]

As good of a year WW had last season, when it comes down to playmaking (1st downs per play and TDs), I'd argue that the passing game now runs though Gronk.

In addition, I'd argue that teams do contain WW when it matters. Check out his post-season numbers. In 7 post-season games, hes never averaged more than 10 yds a catch or had a gain longer than 19 yards. Without a reliable deep threat, teams do clamp down on him.

You can guess whatever you want, but the structure of the offense, and the play design and play calls run through Welker. It is simply a fact.

Since when is ypc an indication of containing receiver? Playoff games are against more difficult teams. There are 100s of reasons that ypc can vary due to that.
Welker average over 7.5 catches a game in the playoffs, which is the equivalent of over 120 catches over a full season.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree. My point is that his numbers go down vs better teams with theoretically better defenses. I don't need piles of stats to tell me that. I will say of those 7 playoff games, I'd say that Brady had a "good" game in 2 of them (DEN and JAX), one ok one (NYG #2) and sub-par games for the rest. Could be an overplay on WW. Could be pass rush. Could be anything. My point is that vs playoff teams with better defenses, WW's numbers are down if compared to the regular season.

Wait, the primary receiver on the team has lesser numbers against top defenses? Wow, I think you are on to something.

 

[Ring 6]

maybe it confuses you....

the pats FOUND a way to limit welker......actually more than one.......they're called lloyd and gaffney....over 1900 yards between em last year. these guys are going to get their yards, and they're going to come from somewhere .... an impact on welkers numbers is the likely first place many of these yards are going to come from

Why? Welker is often the first option, and Welker gets open. Having better completentary receivers for the plays he doesn't get open doesn't take away from him.
The bigger point is if the ball starts going away from Welker its because of Welker and defenses focus on him.

 

[Ring 6]

It's YAC, YPC and # of 1st downs that are WWs value to the team. Catches are an overrated stat unless production is the byproduct of the catch.

So catching passes of 5,8,9,14,17,18 is a world of differnce from catching passes of 4,6,7,11,13,14?

 

[Ring 6]

Stevie Johnson is Buffalo's leading receiver so do you think he should be paid number one wide receiver money. He is simply the best that team has same as Wes he is simply the best wr we have had simply partly because all the other wr's we had were abysmal.True he is a good wr but his skills and value are not that of a true number one wr.

Well that is like saying Tom Brady is only a #1 QB because he is the best we have just like Mark Sanchez on the Jets.
Wes Welker just had the 19th best receiving YARDS season in NFL history. 1 yard less than the 2nd best of Jerry Rice's career.
To call Welker less than a #1 is ludicrous. Your idea of what a #1 is supposed to be is clearly out of whack because Welker produces more than pretty much all those guys you consider 'real #1s'.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There's something to what you say, but part of the distinction is that Welker plays for a team that has 2 exceptional receiving TE's and partially because of it, maximizes the effectiveness of an excellent slot receiver. His YAC is also maximized by having perhaps the most accurate QB of his generation. Not catching balls in stride most of the time, like he would if he played for the Jets, will cut into those stats.

First it was Moss, then it was the TE's... Somehow it's never just Welker being that good. Hasn't been since he was undrafted as a FA...

Mo, if Welker were 28 and in this position, I'd be on your side. Hey if Welker was 28 the deal would be already done. But he isn't. So while he HAS BEEN the top slot receiver in the game for the last few years, who is to say that he will continue to do so.

If Welker were 28 they'd be looking at a 5 year $10M per extension or nothing.

AND what is the price for being the top slot receiver in the game worth anyway. Is it $6MM/yr,. $8MM/yr or $10MM/yr???? I don't know.

Could have fooled me since you keep insisting you know what it isn't. Boldin averaged $7M per on his 4 year deal with the Ravens and half way through it he's never approached Welker's numbers, which have approached those of the guys at the top end of the overall WR range - which is now $12M+.

While 10 years is long NFL career, these players while have 30-40 years of potential earnings after they hang them up. Giving up, say $6MM today, and reaping the benefits of retiring a beloved sports figure in this region is a good deal.....in the long run. In the end John Elway made a lot more money with the car dealerships he eventually sold than he ever made as a Bronco.

John Elway was paid market value, albeit illegally, to remain a Bronco. He wasn't asked to give up anything, otherwise he might not have been able to afford those dealerships. I think you miscalculate what local sponsorship and advertising pays former or even present day athletes. Not to mention the limited number of opportunities that exist for former athletes.

This part of your post is vastly overly dramatic. First of all there is NOTHING the Pats have to be "ashamed" of. That money is important to them....or rather to the OTHER players who would be getting that money if the Pats don't have to give it to Welker. Are they any less deserving?

Why would they hope the doesn't get injured more, without the contract, than they would if they gave him something LT. Don't you have that backward?

They have to hope he doesn't get injured this year because they must envision a need for him, otherwise they wouldn't have tagged him other than to trade him. Kind of like the Asante situation. That one didn't ultimately work out for them production wise (when it mattered and a player who had already likely moved on lost focus repeatedly in the last game of the season), although it did still work out financially for Asante.

Are you saying that Brady would sacrifice maximizing a play to go to Welker out of spite??? Really, MO???

No, but I'm saying don't be surprised if Brady isn't as intent on maximizing Welker's value as he was Randy's in 2007. Stallworth and Gaffney were there then but he hardly noticed them. It's a matter of trust and comfort - and maintenance thereof.

Cry me a freakin' River, Mo. When are you taking this drama to Broadway? Have you sold the screen play yet?

The Pats are paying Wes Welker $9.3MM to give them his best effort for the ENTIRE 2012 season. And the DAY that they felt that he wasn't giving his FULL effort because of a contract issue is the day they should cut his sorry ass. Its also the day Welker would be cutting his own throat financially, because NO team will pay big bucks to a guy who would quit on them the day he was unhappy with his contract. (well maybe the Jets )

It's $9.515M and while I don't doubt he will give his best effort, human nature dictates that the closer he gets to the end of the deal and possible FA the more concerned Welker will become about his future. That's just is human nature. It would be no different for you if an employer was asking you to do a physically dangerous job for a year at a premium as a contract worker with the understanding that if you did get hurt and couldn't do that job again as a result, that was the risk you took. Maybe you'd decide not to do it on those terms (although unlike Welker you'd have that option because concepts like the franchise tag don't exist in the real world and you could go to work for someone willing to pay you a little less to do that job full time and long term.)

And as for no team paying big bucks to a guy who would quit on a team the day he was unhappy with his contract, we did sign Moss track record or doing just that and all. And eventually he became unhappy even here... Other teams do that even more often than this one has. Teams will pay for disgruntled talent. Happens all the time. Coaches often believe that change of scene and their own superior coaching prowess will work wonders on malcontents...not that Welker has ever shown any signs of being one.

Like I have said many times before. I sincerely hope that Welker retires as a Patriot. However I'm not willing (nor are the Pats) to overpay him for that privilege just because he was underpaid in his his prime years. Those dollars are too valuable in respect to the rest of the roster.

No one is asking anyone to overpay him regardless of the fact that he was underpaid in his prime years. He's only 31. No reason to believe he doesn't have at least 2 more prime years in him barring injury, and that's the same caveat that applies to every guy they sign to any deal. Overpaying him for past performance would be advocating a 5 year $50M with more than half guaranteed.

There are no bad guys in this negotiation. Both sides are doing what they think is best for themselves, and that's the way it should be. Your claim that the Pats are screwing Welker in any sense has no merit, except as an emotional appeal.

I didn't say they were screwing him, just taking advantage of one of the good guy overachievers who have always been the lifesblood of their achievement. Guys who we already know don't grow on trees. Your counter argument is always the same red herring rehash about wanting to pay for past performance, the lack of certainty in his future performance, impact on other players. You can make those claims about every other player on the roster at contract time. Yet the ones they want they sign. It's pretty disingenuous to claim to want to sign a player to a long term deal and want him to retire a Patriot when you make no effort to negotiate to that end.

 

[ausbacker]

Well that is like saying Tom Brady is only a #1 QB because he is the best we have just like Mark Sanchez on the Jets.
Wes Welker just had the 19th best receiving YARDS season in NFL history. 1 yard less than the 2nd best of Jerry Rice's career.
To call Welker less than a #1 is ludicrous. Your idea of what a #1 is supposed to be is clearly out of whack because Welker produces more than pretty much all those guys you consider 'real #1s'.

Not to mention Welker's 122 receptions were 22 receptions ahead of second placed Roddy White despite being targeted 9 times less.

If ever there was a definition of automatic it's Wes Welker. He catches balls thrown to him. If he's not the definition of a #1 I'm a tickled pink fairy.

 

[Fencer]

For Branch are we talking first time or second time? As for Moss, he had like two routes, go long and go longer so not a very valid point, imo. Look at Edelman, he has been with the Pats for a while he still doesn't seem to have the field reads that Wes has nor as in tune with Brady as Welker is. It's not very often you can bring a player in and they pick up the offense quickly and are able to be in tune with Brady like he is. It's remarkable the chemistry these two have.

I was thinking first time for Branch.

And Welker did well with Cassell as well.

I think having the right receiver for this offense is a big deal. I don't think guys have particularly long learning curves in it or with Brady; either it works out well for them or it doesn't.

The drafted receivers who've worked out really well to date have been Branch, Givens, Gronkowski, and Hernandez. All were effective with Brady quickly, position-conversion project Givens a little more slowly than the others.

Ditto for most of the veterans Brady has succeeded with, my list of those being Brown, Moss, Welker, Patten, Gaffney, Faulk (he's the one who took a while), Fauria, and (not really a veteran receiver) Vrabel.

 

[sly24]

Granted with Gronk, AH, Lloyd, Gaff and some decent runners the offense would be highly effective. With a much-improved defense, they would still contend for a SB.

Having WW puts them in the stratosphere regardless.

Thing I don't like about Welker is that is production drops in the playoffs. He averages about the same number of catches but he average 80 yards/game in the regular season and 54 yards/game in the playoffs. I couldn't care less if he has 150 catches in the season, I want guys who step up when it's crunch time. Don't get me wrong I like him and I think he's a terrific asset, but I think he's thinking too much of himself right now and asking too much money.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

You can guess whatever you want, but the structure of the offense, and the play design and play calls run through Welker. It is simply a fact.

Right now, I'd say the offense is built (besides Brady, obviously) around Welker and GRONK in about equal measure.