It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[RI Patriots fan]

I just hope that by some miracle the Pats lock up Welker today. He makes the offense much better and is a fan favorite. The guy is a warrior; Brady's ascension statistically began when Welker came aboard, and while Moss was a major factor, the Pats have shown they are still dominant without Moss. I think the worst game I've ever seen the offense play, without question, is the '09 playoff loss to the Ravens, where Welker was out. The offense was completely lost and there was no security blanket. Yes, the team adapts and now there are other playmakers, but that doesn't change the fact that we're a much better team with #83. I won't pretend to know what the fair market value is here, as that's up to the team and Welker. I just hope that he signs an extension.

We also didn't have Gronk, Hernandez, Lloyd, Gaffney, or Branch for that game either.

 

[Deus Irae]

Read this from ESPN Boston:

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston


Simple question Deus Irae: Would you pay him Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money? Yes or No.

You took what I said and responded with something that's not even tangential. In answer to your unrelated question:

1.) I've said before that Welker deserves a Calvin Johnson contract based upon production, but would not get that due to age and his "slot"ness.

2.) Ian and I had a conversation on this some time ago (in a thread), where both he and I seemed to be in agreement that a 3 year deal in the $8m-$9m range would be a bargain for the Patriots. I bring this up not for use as authoritative backing, but to show that I've been of the same mind for some time and that my numbers are not Calvin Johnson numbers.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Expecting he'd have to to warrant a 3 year deal isn't clear thinking...

Depends on the payout schedule, it absolutely does.

The simple fact is that the Pats do not believe WW will produce at age 33 like he does at age 31 and his salary would be a reflection of it. If they did, he'd be signed by now.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Read this from ESPN Boston:

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston


Simple question Deus Irae: Would you pay him Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money? Yes or No.

If he wants Calvin Johnson money, then of course a contract won't get done. But this is the first that I've heard about him wanting that kind of money. Everything that's come prior to this has said that he's fine with $10M per.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Reading comprehension is a lost art. If performance begins to drop off dramatically AFTER age 32, then they have nothing to worry about with Welker for the next two years. And after that he'd be down to unguaranteed salary, so they have nothing to worry about there, either. Especially considering any precipitous drop doesn't occur until 35.

Although what the study actually assesses wasn't drop off in production among individual receivers but rather the dropoff in number of receivers still producing thousand yard plus seasons...

Yes, I guess some people would consider reading comprehension an "art".

Nothing to worry before age 33.....how about injury?

Do you know for a fact what Welker is asking for in terms of contract length and guaranteed money?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

If he wants Calvin Johnson money, then of course a contract won't get done. But this is the first that I've heard about him wanting that kind of money. Everything that's come prior to this has said that he's fine with $10M per.

You haven't heard he wants Megatron money because he hasn't asked for it.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Read this from ESPN Boston:

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston


Simple question Deus Irae: Would you pay him Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money? Yes or No.

That was a lazy throwaway line by a national guy who has no idea what Welker is asking for. If he were looking for Johnson or Fitzgerald money he wouldn't be interested in playing for even one year at $9.5M since their deals average $16-18M per, and the guaranteed money impass would be a lot larger than reportedly $6M because those two got $50M and $60M guaranteed.

Anquan Bolden signed a deal with the Ravens 2 years ago, heading into the lockout, that paid him $7M per for 4 years with $10M guaranteed. He hasn't approached Welker's production and they are the same age. Welker's production has rivaled the other two... So paying him $8-9M on a 3-4 year deal with essentially the first two guaranteed wouldn't be a streth by any measure.

 

[Deus Irae]

How so......because of Owens? How about all the other data?

Was he wrong in saying that only 15 receivers had 1000+ yard seasons when they were 33 versus 28 at 32?

When you take a study and then declare the need of a miracle, only to get slapped down, your article is dead.

Also, you continue to misuse the study, so I think I'll point something out from the data:

In the (outdated) study, there were 44 1000 yard seasons at age 30. At age 33, there were 28, which means that far more than half the number of 1000 yard seasons. In other words, for the two seasons that one would expect to see the bulk of the guaranteed money in a 3-4 year deal, the odds are actually in favor of Welker continuing to have 1000 yard seasons.

Also, despite your attempt to use the "15 receivers" as some sort of club, it should be noted that, in fact, the study shows a rise to 18 1000 yard seasons at age 34 (about 40% of the age 30 numbers). In other words, age 33 is not the deathly decline season. That happens at 35 and 36.

 

[BradyManny]

The extra time the two sides bought has been wasted. Sources have told me there have been no realistic proposals that approached the money Welker was looking for (a figure north of $20 million over the next two seasons).

The Patriots floated Welker a two-year, $16 million proposal last fall and haven't moved far from that.

Curran: Welker extension - or lack thereof - a minor deal

Curran says the Patriots haven't moved off their 2x16, and Welker hasn't moved off wanting over 20 mill in the next two years.

Both sides have reason to take their stance.

As I said in the other thread, it's pretty easy to see see both sides of the equation here. I'd hoped compromise could be found.

 

[BradyManny]

Read this from ESPN Boston:

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston


Simple question Deus Irae: Would you pay him Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money? Yes or No.

Curran has Welker asking for a deal which gives him over twenty in the first two years. That's all we know. We don't know the length (I'm guessing it's not too much longer), or the total figure.

Calvin Johnson signed an 8 year, $132 million contract. Fitzgerald got an 8 year, $125 million deal.

Wes Welker is not looking for that kind of deal in any sense - and anyone who suggests otherwise is trying to make a rather silly point.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Yes, I guess some people would consider reading comprehension an "art".

Nothing to worry before age 33.....how about injury?

Do you know for a fact what Welker is asking for in terms of contract length and guaranteed money?

Injury is a worry for every player you sign regardless of age. That's the nature of the business and the game.

I know for a fact he isn't asking for $15-18M per because if he was he'd be certifiable and Jonathan Kraft would have outed him on that long ago...and they'd be a lot more than $6M apart. He has stated he is fine playing for $9.5M this year. That leads me to believe that is the kind of money he is looking for in a long term deal. He's has been quoted as saying they aren't even offering him $16M guaranteed any more. Whatever they offered him just prior to tagging him was less than that, and there has been no shift in negotiation since. Sources with knowledge of the negotiations have been sighted as saying that he is looking for something in the vacinity of $20M or close to the value of being tagged twice in guaranteed money. They offered him $4M+ less than that last fall. They are reportedly offering him $6M less than that as we speak.

No one knows exactly what he's asking for besides the parties to the negotiation. And that includes national mediots like Schefter who probably knows even less than we do because his insider access hereabouts is more limited at ESPN than it was when the league was spoonfeeding him information at NFLN.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

When you take a study and then declare the need of a miracle, only to get slapped down, your article is dead.

Also, you continue to misuse the study, so I think I'll point something out from the data:

In the (outdated) study, there were 44 1000 yard seasons at age 30. At age 33, there were 28, which means that far more than half the number of 1000 yard seasons. In other words, for the two seasons that one would expect to see the bulk of the guaranteed money in a 3-4 year deal, the odds are actually in favor of Welker continuing to have 1000 yard seasons.

Also, despite your attempt to use the "15 receivers" as some sort of club, it should be noted that, in fact, the study shows a rise to 18 1000 yard seasons at age 34 (about 40% of the age 30 numbers). In other words, age 33 is not the deathly decline season. That happens at 35 and 36.

Slapped down....lol Now that is humurous.

Outdated......how exactly, is this "outdated"??

The data for age 34 is an outlier. The trend is clear right from age 30 onward.

There is no doubt that after age 30, it is much less likely for a receiver on average to have a 1000+ yard season then before. At 33, the chances are significantly less and after 35 the chances are extremely bad.

But ,this isn't just about a function of performance. It's a function of performance versus compensation (and how much of that compensation is guaranteed). Since we can't know how much Welker is asking for then there is no way we can know if the right decision is being made in this case.

 

[mgteich]

Welker is looking more than $20M the first 2 years. He is asking for $20M guaranteed in the first two years. We don't know what salary he is asking for for any of the years.

I suspect that Welker is fine with a 2 year contract as long as he gets his $20M.

In the opinion of most, the only way to get Welker the $20M would be on a 3 or 4 year contract.

Curran has Welker asking for a deal which gives him over twenty in the first two years. That's all we know. We don't know the length (I'm guessing it's not too much longer), or the total figure.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not making up anything.

Your entire hypothetical example was about things that didn't actually happen.

 

[Joker]

just make the goddamned catch...all this goes away

 

[Deus Irae]

Slapped down....lol Now that is humurous.

Obviously it was slapped down. Only a fool would claim otherwise.

Outdated......how exactly, is this "outdated"??

It doesn't include 2010 or 2011. Again, obvious....

The data for age 34 is an outlier. The trend is clear right from age 30 onward.

It's not an outlier. The drop from 32 to 33 is incongruous.

drop from 30 to 31 = 23%
drop from 31 to 32 = 18%
drop from 32 to 33 = 46%

So.... change that drop to 20.5% (midway between 18 and 23) and you get a drop of 5.74 as opposed to 13. In other words, that would put 33 at about 22. Then the drop from 22 to 18 would be 18%, which would be in line with the other drops.

There is no doubt that after age 30, it is much less likely for a receiver on average to have a 1000+ yard season then before. At 33, the chances are significantly less and after 35 the chances are extremely bad.

There is no doubt that you've misused the study, and that I've shown your errors. The rest of this is just a waste of time.

But ,this isn't just about a function of performance. It's a function of performance versus compensation (and how much of that compensation is guaranteed). Since we can't know how much Welker is asking for then there is no way we can know if the right decision is being made in this case.

Actually, we do know enough, assuming the reports are accurate.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Injury is a worry for every player you sign regardless of age. That's the nature of the business and the game.

I know for a fact he isn't asking for $15-18M per because if he was he'd be certifiable and Jonathan Kraft would have outed him on that long ago...and they'd be a lot more than $6M apart. He has stated he is fine playing for $9.5M this year. That leads me to believe that is the kind of money he is looking for in a long term deal. He's has been quoted as saying they aren't even offering him $16M guaranteed any more. Whatever they offered him just prior to tagging him was less than that, and there has been no shift in negotiation since. Sources with knowledge of the negotiations have been sighted as saying that he is looking for something in the vacinity of $20M or close to the value of being tagged twice in guaranteed money. They offered him $4M+ less than that last fall. They are reportedly offering him $6M less than that as we speak.

No one knows exactly what he's asking for besides the parties to the negotiation. And that includes national mediots like Schefter who probably knows even less than we do because his insider access hereabouts is more limited at ESPN than it was when the league was spoonfeeding him information at NFLN.

Yes, injury is a worry for every player you sign. But every player isn't receiving guaranteeed money and every player isn't receiving the compensation that wes welker is looking for in this case. A player receiving $20 million over 2 years at 31 years old with a rehab injury in the past is going to be a much higher level of concern than a 23 year old with no injuries who has a one year contract for $560k and no guarantee.

"Sources in the know"....are you talking about the article in this thread that said that welker is looking for "north" of $20 million for two season guaranteed?
"North" of $20MM could be anything.
Again, the fact is we don't know.....I've heard three years, I've heard four years, I've heard two years.
The only thing we know for certain is that none of us know for certain.

If none of us know for certain, than how can we make an evaluation?

 

[BradyManny]

Welker is looking more than $20M the first 2 years. He is asking for $20M guaranteed in the first two years. We don't know what salary he is asking for for any of the years.

I suspect that Welker is fine with a 2 year contract as long as he gets his $20M.

I have the same feeling. Either way, any comparisons to Fitz/Megatron is absurd.

Welker is going to make 9+ this year, and 11+ next year if/when we franchise him. The only incentive the Patriots have to move off their stance is the freedom to use their franchise tag on someone else after this season.

That or loyalty to one of their most loyal players, who so far has hugely outperformed his pay here. But that's a less tangible factor - and raises bigger issues. Again, the team has to do what is best for the team.

 

[Kontradiction]

What was pointed out? I missed it.

That the intangibles that Welker uses to get open don't dissipate with age. I stated as much in the post that you responded to. Now, if you want to make an argument for why his production will drop off using a decrease in speed, then you're more than welcome. The validity of the argument will come up wanting but you can still do it if you so wish.

You fail to grasp my point. Thats 3 "slot" WRs over an almost 30 year history.

No I grasped your point, I just don't see how it applies for a few reasons...

1. There is no absolute science to when players begin to decline so using the likes of Ricky Proehl to support your argument would be irrelevant (as has been shown with the StatsDontLie link). However, even considering that...

2. The receivers that you mentioned didn't rely on being on the same mental page as the quarterback to peel off on any number of option routes in the Ehrhardt-Perkins system. That's why a guy like Deion Branch, who has had nagging injury after nagging injury, can still get open.

There isn't a science to decline, however there are usually reasons. These reasons generally tend to hover around debilitating injuries. It's the reason why guys like Irvin hang them up early and guys like Owens can play well into their late 30's. Welker has had one serious injury in his entire career, and he's already had a career year since coming back from it.

If you expect WW to have 120 catches, 1400yds and covert 65% of those catches to 1st downs at age 33 you are not thinking clearing.

He's given me no reason not to expect it. He's given me greater reason to believe that he'll be capable of it three years down the line than he's given you reason to believe that he's just about done and is not worthy of a multi-year deal. If his stats go down, it'll be for the same reason that Gronk's do: many more weapons on the field to spread the ball out than there were in 2011.

You cannot compare a Qb to a WR. C'mon now.

I wasn't. I was comparing the age logic used and then comparing to the last huge contract situation we had. You'll notice that, after that, I noted that it was irrelevant.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Your entire hypothetical example was about things that didn't actually happen.

You said that WW can't be stopped.

I said he can be contained.

His YPC, YAC and 1st down % goes down vs better defenses in the playoffs. That is a statistical fact.

There is nothing hypothetical about it.

I am done here.