It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[RI Patriots fan]

Quarterback performance can last well into their late 30's unlike wide receiver performance which declines rapidly after 32 and then falls off a cliff at 35.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

We'll disagree here. Providing he does sign a 3 year deal, the odds of him being the same player at 33 that he was at 30 are against him.

I'd suggest that you take a look at the history of NFL wide receivers. A vast majority of them are more productive and stay healthier at 30 than 33. Only exceptions I can think of that are like WW and don't rely on straigh-line speed who played the slot quite a bit are Derrick Mason who was very productive through his mid 30s, Ricky Proehl and maybe Pat Tilley but he blew out his knee at 32 but was very good at 31.

I love WW but you must understand why the Pats are hesitant in giving him a 3-yr deal.

Funny you should mention Mason whom the Patriots tried to sign to a 5 year deal in 2005 at age 31...Supposedly they even outbid the Ravens who landed him for $20M with $11M implicitly guaranteed (in the first two years) at a time when the NE salary cap was $86.2M.

I'll tell you why I don't understand the hesitancy. Welker's consistency and durability to date (even the ACL didn't cost him appreciable time) and the fact that coming off his one major injury he still produced sufficiently and then rebounded to be as Brady stated repeatedly last season better than ever belies it. And the issue isn't 3 years at top dollar. It's two years and an unguaranteed 3rd or 4th year that this team would be in total control over with the option to pay him, force him to reduce his salary, or cut him with little dead cap implication in exchange for 3-4 years of control and far greater cap flexibility which is supposed to be valued like draft picks or gold hereabouts. It's all about balancing risk and reward. And in Welker's case the risk is being over stated. He's worth a 3 year deal even if after this season his production drops off by 20% per season. Because it's not like they won't have the leverage and ability to restructure him to salaries on the backend that reflect that. If he only caught 96 balls for 1200 yards in 2013, he'd still be worth $2M in reduced salary and $5M against the cap in 2014 and if in 2014 he only caught 77 balls for 900 or so yards by 2014, he'd still be worth a million in salary and $3M+ against the cap even as unit depth...in 2015. And given his options he'd almost certainly opt to continue to play ball here under those terms if that were the way his remaining career unfolded.

Every player they sign to a long term deal could be out of the game the following season. And yet they manage to get those they want to retain signed to one. The track record for OL here over the last decade indicates most are done by 33, yet last season Mankins was signed to a really long term deal that controls him through age 34 at a market setting average that was 65% guaranteed... He is now rehabbing an ACL. Somehow if and more likely when the time comes to cut his salary I think they will meet with considerable resistence and perhaps early retirement on principle...

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Can we just go ahead and say WW is NOT like most other 32 year old receivers...can we just go ahead and say that, let's all go ahead and try...

After all the debating is done, I hope we get him for three year deal at a price that is good for everyone....thank you Captain Obvious....

All this crap about him getting old...seriously.

He has gotten licked so many times and got right back up. Where is THIS value to the team being measured? What message does that send to your team, how do you think that motivates your team when one of the smallest dudes get lite up and he bounces right back up. What about his value in NE with TFB, and his knowledge of the system? I mean come on...

This is my team however I would be very very disappointed if they walk away from this without a deal. Wes deserves a deal, Wes deserves at the very least a 3 year deal. Wes is durable for at least three more years. Take 83 away and the other 3 may not be at that spot when the ball is in the air.

This is absolutely pathetic...

Actually he didn't get right back up.....he had a major injury that required significant time rehabbing.

To say that Wes Welker will be the same player in 2014 that he was in 2011 goes against all the available data.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Quarterback performance can last well into their late 30's unlike wide receiver performance which declines rapidly after 32 and then falls off a cliff at 35.

That isn't exactly what the study says, and even if it did good thing about Wes is he ONLY JUST TURNED 31 and his production is such that the initial drop off at 33 would likely constitute a career season for most of the guys in the study.

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

Actually he didn't get right back up.....he had a major injury that required significant time rehabbing.

To say that Wes Welker will be the same player in 2014 that he was in 2011 goes against all the available data.

...uhh, that was the turf dude.....

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Actually he didn't get right back up.....he had a major injury that required significant time rehabbing.

To say that Wes Welker will be the same player in 2014 that he was in 2011 goes against all the available data.

Hell, if he's only the same guy in 2014 that he was in 2010, he's still worth a three year deal that guarantees him $20M...

 

[Deus Irae]

Actually he didn't get right back up.....he had a major injury that required significant time rehabbing.

To say that Wes Welker will be the same player in 2014 that he was in 2011 goes against all the available data.

No, actually, it doesn't.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

That isn't exactly what the study says, and even if it did good thing about Wes is he ONLY JUST TURNED 31 and his production is such that the initial drop off at 33 would likely constitute a career season for most of the guys in the study.

Actually the study makes reference to your "concern"....look at the first line about Reggie Wayne.

 

[goheels22002]

And if they did a 3-4 year deal they could lower that cap hit, that's their choice, not his. FWIW Brady is the most expensive player on the roster, scheduled to take up $17M against the cap until they opted to convert $10M of his 2012 salary and bonus to signing bonus and pay it out up front while enabling them to spread the hits across the remaining 2 years of his contract which will now have $22M cap hits going forward in exchange for an artificially low cap hit this season. They could give Welker a 4 year $32M deal with $20M guaranteed and take a cap hit as low as $6M if they wanted to this season. The cap is all about contract structure and that is a team decision.

If you agree he's worth 3 years at that kind of money, then you're being somewhat diningenuous to claim not offering anything that approaches that isn't disrespectful or unappreciative.

I wish someone would direspect me to the tune of $9.5M too, but I also realize it would be impossible to because I possess no talent remotely worth it. Wes does.

No disagreement with anything you wrote. I don't think that the Patriots intended any disrespect or lack of appreciation in this case towards WW by tagging him. I am interested to find out in the coming days if any offer from the team was made that was greater than the 2 years for $16M deal they offered before they tagged him. Even if they're not close, it would be nice to know how the Pats viewed this sitaution and what WW rejected.

This "negotiation" strikes me as very different from the Assante Samuel tag which basically said, we need you, we'll pay you, but we don't trust you. They also agreed to no tag in the ensuing year, which gave Samuel his freedom.

This time around it seems like the Patriots are willing to go to another tagged year, or negotiate a two-year deal after this year depending on his performance and health - if nothing happens by 4 p.m. today.

 

[Deus Irae]

Owens doesn't have the speed of Galloway, the hands of Smith, or the dedication of Rice and it would be nothing short of a miracle if Owens can somehow go for 1,000 receiving yards in 2010.

Stats Don't Lie: Age Study: NFL Wide Receivers

Owens put up 983 yards worth of receiving, in 2011, despite only playing in 14 games. Great article, though.... :bricks:

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Stats Don't Lie: Age Study: NFL Wide Receivers

Owens put up 983 yards worth of receiving, in 2011, despite only playing in 14 games. Great article, though.... :bricks:

Sure, you can always find an exception.....:bricks:

 

[RobertWeathers]

No they're not, as has just been pointed out to you. If he relied on pure speed alone to get open, ala DeSean Jackson, then I would agree you.

What was pointed out? I missed it.

You just destroyed your own argument.



I don't. And all arguments to that effect have been pretty inconsistent with reality as well. Going by the "age" logic, the Pats shouldn't have offered Brady a contract either. But that's irrelevant to the topic at hand...

You fail to grasp my point. Thats 3 "slot" WRs over an almost 30 year history.

If you expect WW to have 120 catches, 1400yds and covert 65% of those catches to 1st downs at age 33 you are not thinking clearing.

You cannot compare a Qb to a WR. C'mon now.

 

[Deus Irae]

Sure, you can always find an exception.....:bricks:

Exception? The dude called Owens out specifically.

it would be nothing short of a miracle

His entire article/study, which you and others have misrepresented, suffered a grizzly death in 2010.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

What was pointed out? I missed it.





You fail to grasp my point. Thats 3 "slot" WRs over an almost 30 year history.

If you expect WW to have 120 catches, 1400yds and covert 65% of those catches to 1st downs at age 33 you are not thinking clearing.

You cannot compare a Qb to a WR. C'mon now.

Expecting he'd have to to warrant a 3 year deal isn't clear thinking...

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Sure, you can always find an exception.....:bricks:

He uses Owens because Owens and Wes are like physically identical.

 

[Don_the_patfan]

When posters get past this sort of nonsense, discussions about players and contracts will finally be able to be based in reason instead of silliness, pettiness and jealousy. It'll be a great day for message boards.

Read this from ESPN Boston:

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

"Wes Welker is a slot receiver, and he wants to be paid like one of the top receivers in the game, which he has been. But a slot receiver typically doesn't make as much money as a Calvin Johnson or a Larry Fitzgerald, and that seems to be where these talks are bogged down slightly."

Simple question Deus Irae: Would you pay him Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald money? Yes or No.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Exception? The dude called Owens out specifically.



His entire article/study, which you and others have misrepresented, suffered a grizzly death in 2010.

How so......because of Owens? How about all the other data?

Was he wrong in saying that only 15 receivers had 1000+ yard seasons when they were 33 versus 28 at 32?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I just hope that by some miracle the Pats lock up Welker today. He makes the offense much better and is a fan favorite. The guy is a warrior; Brady's ascension statistically began when Welker came aboard, and while Moss was a major factor, the Pats have shown they are still dominant without Moss. I think the worst game I've ever seen the offense play, without question, is the '09 playoff loss to the Ravens, where Welker was out. The offense was completely lost and there was no security blanket. Yes, the team adapts and now there are other playmakers, but that doesn't change the fact that we're a much better team with #83. I won't pretend to know what the fair market value is here, as that's up to the team and Welker. I just hope that he signs an extension.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Actually the study makes reference to your "concern"....look at the first line about Reggie Wayne.

Reading comprehension is a lost art. If performance begins to drop off dramatically AFTER age 32, then they have nothing to worry about with Welker for the next two years. And after that he'd be down to unguaranteed salary, so they have nothing to worry about there, either. Especially considering any precipitous drop doesn't occur until 35.

Although what the study actually assesses wasn't drop off in production among individual receivers but rather the dropoff in number of receivers still producing thousand yard plus seasons...

 

[RobertWeathers]

Funny you should mention Mason whom the Patriots tried to sign to a 5 year deal in 2005 at age 31...Supposedly they even outbid the Ravens who landed him for $20M with $11M implicitly guaranteed (in the first two years) at a time when the NE salary cap was $86.2M.

Yep. I remember wanting DM badly. I thought that he would have been a great addition to this this offense.

I'll tell you why I don't understand the hesitancy. Welker's consistency and durability to date (even the ACL didn't cost him appreciable time) and the fact that coming off his one major injury he still produced sufficiently and then rebounded to be as Brady stated repeatedly last season better than ever belies it. And the issue isn't 3 years at top dollar. It's two years and an unguaranteed 3rd or 4th year that this team would be in total control over with the option to pay him, force him to reduce his salary, or cut him with little dead cap implication in exchange for 3-4 years of control and far greater cap flexibility which is supposed to be valued like draft picks or gold hereabouts. It's all about balancing risk and reward. And in Welker's case the risk is being over stated. He's worth a 3 year deal even if after this season his production drops off by 20% per season. Because it's not like they won't have the leverage and ability to restructure him to salaries on the backend that reflect that. If he only caught 96 balls for 1200 yards in 2013, he'd still be worth $2M in reduced salary and $5M against the cap in 2014 and if in 2014 he only caught 77 balls for 900 or so yards by 2014, he'd still be worth a million in salary and $3M+ against the cap even as unit depth...in 2015. And given his options he'd almost certainly opt to continue to play ball here under those terms if that were the way his remaining career unfolded.

Agree with your numbers. Assuming that this article is correct, the problem is that WW wants $6m more than what the Pats are offering . I don't know what he wants for yr 3.

New England Patriots Are Right Not to Cave to Wes Welker's Contract Demands | Bleacher Report

Every player they sign to a long term deal could be out of the game the following season. And yet they manage to get those they want to retain signed to one. The track record for OL here over the last decade indicates most are done by 33, yet last season Mankins was signed to a really long term deal that controls him through age 34 at a market setting average that was 65% guaranteed... He is now rehabbing an ACL. Somehow if and more likely when the time comes to cut his salary I think they will meet with considerable resistence and perhaps early retirement on principle...

The issue has got to me $$ structure and payout and not total money. Just a guess.