It Looks Like No Long term Deal between Pats and Welker

[ctpatsfan77]

maybe it confuses you....

the pats FOUND a way to limit welker......actually more than one.......they're called lloyd and gaffney....over 1900 yards between em last year. these guys are going to get their yards, and they're going to come from somewhere .... an impact on welkers numbers is the likely first place many of these yards are going to come from

Except that it doesn't work that simply.

Will they eat into his reception totals? Probably. But imagine what YAC Welker could have when Lloyd is dragging safeties downfield with him, so WW's being covered by LBs.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You can guess whatever you want, but the structure of the offense, and the play design and play calls run through Welker. It is simply a fact.

Since when is ypc an indication of containing receiver? Playoff games are against more difficult teams. There are 100s of reasons that ypc can vary due to that.
Welker average over 7.5 catches a game in the playoffs, which is the equivalent of over 120 catches over a full season.

To suggest that every single play goes to WW is outlandish. There is no guessing to what is going on with this offense. Especially when you have a TE put up the numbers he did last year.

YPC is a critical number for a WR who spends his life making 1st downs w/ YAC.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Wait, the primary receiver on the team has lesser numbers against top defenses? Wow, I think you are on to something.

Need to do some research, Andy. Sometimes in the playoffs primary WRs do better in the postseason than in the reg season because they are superior talents.

 

[RobertWeathers]

So catching passes of 5,8,9,14,17,18 is a world of differnce from catching passes of 4,6,7,11,13,14?

Yes if they don't result in 1st downs which is a big reason why the Pats are even considering paying Welker. If WW has a ton of catches and his 1st down % is awful then why pay the guy?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Except that it doesn't work that simply.

Will they eat into his reception totals? Probably. But imagine what YAC Welker could have when Lloyd is dragging safeties downfield with him, so WW's being covered by LBs.

Yeah, it kinda does work that way.

WW would be great against LB's. Also, there are plenty of receivers that would be great against LB's that will not cost $9-10 MM per year.

That's where the breakdown is.

In 2012

The new, "old" OC who is getting the gang back together.

An overhaul of the WR corps that includes WR's the new, "old" OC is essentially bringing (back) with him.

Two all world TE's that are starting to come into their own.

Two high pick RB's that will bring phyical qualities not seen in many years.

A head coach that is the antithesis of "do what we do".

Yet somehow patsfans.com "knows" that this will be the exact same offense and the reason WW is being treated this way is either a pathological need for mgmt to "win" at everything (Mo) or a sadistic need for mgmt to treat posterboard "Patriot Way" players with disdain (Ivan). (See other thread)

Maybe, just maybe the 2012 offense will be a new variation of the offense that while still takes considerable advantage of (see money committed/ offered)...will not have the same emphasis on taking advantage of the WW skillset.

As such, this translates into a smaller offer than WW should rightly expect.

Furthermore, WW is one of very, very few WR's that actually make a QB better (ask MC if WW is just a "slot receiver") so this will have him test the market to see true value.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

If Wes stays healthy he'll get his money; if not from the Patriots than from someone else
Think Peyton Manning would love this guy or what?? How about Baltimore incorporating a Wes Welker into their offense.
Or the Jets. Think Aaron Rodgers would love a guy like that??
Just too bad this contract nonsense is an annual thing with this organization.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

If Wes stays healthy he'll get his money; if not from the Patriots than from someone else
Think Peyton Manning would love this guy or what?? How about Baltimore incorporating a Wes Welker into their offense.
Or the Jets. Think Aaron Rodgers would love a guy like that??
Just too bad this contract nonsense is an annual thing with this organization.

So you're a fan of the Denver Broncos? Baltimore Ravens? Jets? (my bet) or the Packiz?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

So you're a fan of the Denver Broncos? Baltimore Ravens? Jets? (my bet) or the Packiz?

No

He read through the "Jets Cap hell in 2013" thread and concluded they can easily give WW $10MM per season.

That's how things get thought through.

 

[Kontradiction]

If Wes stays healthy he'll get his money; if not from the Patriots than from someone else
Think Peyton Manning would love this guy or what?? How about Baltimore incorporating a Wes Welker into their offense.
Or the Jets. Think Aaron Rodgers would love a guy like that??
Just too bad this contract nonsense is an annual thing with this organization.

Sometimes it's warranted. Other times, it's not. With Welker, it's definitely not warranted. Neither was it with Mankins. Manning or Rodgers with him would be scary. On top of that, it would severely weaken our now strong receiving corps.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

This is one of those cases where we Pats Fans have to keep two apparently contradictory ideas in our heads at the same time and, somehow, manage to reconcile them.

1) Welker is the Pats' #1, go-to, highly effective, highly efficient WR, without whom their offense would look very different and Tom Brady would be one unhappy camper.

2) The Pats have decided that they will not expose themselves financially to Welker for more than one year at a time at the Franchise Tag rate or, over multiple years, for more than a set amount of money that is, reportedly, well below what Welker wants (whatever those two amounts might be).

Personally, I'm having a hard time reconciling them and have to take it on faith that this is the best for the team and Brady at this time; "In Kraft and BB, I trust" (despite that whole dance and dumb skit thing).

 

[Kontradiction]

This is one of those cases where we Pats Fans have to keep two apparently contradictory ideas in our heads at the same time and, somehow, manage to reconcile them.

1) Welker is the Pats' #1, go-to, highly effective, highly efficient WR, without whom their offense would look very different and Tom Brady would be one unhappy camper.

2) The Pats have decided that they will not expose themselves financially to Welker for more than one year at a time at the Franchise Tag rate or, over multiple years, for more than a set amount of money that is, reportedly, well below what Welker wants (whatever those two amounts might be).

Personally, I'm having a hard time reconciling them.

That's putting it lightly. Brady would be absolutely livid. He can say that his favorite receiver is the open one all he wants. But history has shown that, when the chips are down, he looks to Welker far more than he looks to anyone else.

 

[goheels22002]

This is one of those cases where we Pats Fans have to keep two apparently contradictory ideas in our heads at the same time and, somehow, manage to reconcile them.

1) Welker is the Pats' #1, go-to, highly effective, highly efficient WR, without whom their offense would look very different and Tom Brady would be one unhappy camper.

2) The Pats have decided that they will not expose themselves financially to Welker for more than one year at a time at the Franchise Tag rate or, over multiple years, for more than a set amount of money that is, reportedly, well below what Welker wants (whatever those two amounts might be).

Personally, I'm having a hard time reconciling them and have to take it on faith that this is the best for the team and Brady at this time; "In Kraft and BB, I trust" (despite that whole dance and dumb skit thing).

Please remember that on the morning of the deadline to sign a long-term deal, Wes Welker is the #1 most expensive player on the roster in 2012. His $9.523 million dollar contract is the biggest cap hit on the 90 man roster heading into camp, more than $1.2 million greater than Tom Brady's this year.

No tears should be shed for Mr. Welker.

The franchise tag cuts both ways. Every dollar is guaranteed and is a huge risk to the team. The player has time-limited employment but is being compensated for the work he does at the highest level.

I agree with many who feel a three-year deal at $8M to $9M annually with a majority of that guaranteed should be on the table (maybe it is), but I have no sympathy for Mr. Welker and his agent if they play the disrespected or unappreciated card.

I wish somebody would un-appreciate me for $9,523,120 this year.

 

[BradyManny]

That's putting it lightly. Brady would be absolutely livid. He can say that his favorite receiver is the open one all he wants. But history has shown that, when the chips are down, he looks to Welker far more than he looks to anyone else.

How many times has Brady called Welker the best player on the team, or the heart and soul of the team, or referenced how he's always open. They are also very close friends with some serious unfinished business.

 

[RobertWeathers]

How many times has Brady called Welker the best player on the team, or the heart and soul of the team, or referenced how he's always open. They are also very close friends with some serious unfinished business.

Being close friends and having unfinished business has nothing to do with getting a 3 year deal.

Producing at the level he is paid and projecting that into the future has everything to do with it.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

How many times has Brady called Welker the best player on the team, or the heart and soul of the team, or referenced how he's always open. They are also very close friends with some serious unfinished business.

Open receiver..........heart and soul.......unfinished business.

Close out SB XLVI......

 

[Kontradiction]

Being close friends and having unfinished business has nothing to do with getting a 3 year deal.

Producing at the level he is paid and projecting that into the future has everything to do with it.

That's a copout. What makes you believe that Welker won't be producing like that in three years?

 

[RobertWeathers]

That's a copout. What makes you believe that Welker won't be producing like that in three years?

I never said he wouldn't. The odds and history are against him but thats besides the point.

The previous poster seemed to imply that just because he and Brady are buds and have unfinished biz are some of thekey reasons why the Pats would pay WW close to what he is looking for. Thats all.

 

[Kontradiction]

I never said he wouldn't. The odds and history are against him but thats besides the point.

The previous poster seemed to imply that just because he and Brady are buds and have unfinished biz are some of thekey reasons why the Pats would pay WW close to what he is looking for. Thats all.

I don't see that the odds are against him at all. First, Welker's game does not and never has relied on getting open through pure speed. His game and his ability to get open rely on a few things...

1. Shiftyness in the open field.

2. Razor sharp precise route running.

3. Vulcan like mind connection with Brady.

Only one of those things would even seem to dissipate within three years, and that's his shiftyness in the open field. However, that's nowhere near a certainty. Welker has only had one major injury in his career and has rebounded to have a career year. The other two do not dissipate with time. So, basing any argument on his future production falling off being the chief reason to not sign him is, well, futile. Nothing about the way he plays shows us any signs of Welker slowing down.

 

[Ivan]

If no deal gets done (and it's looking like there won't be one), Welker needs to flip the Pats the bird next offseason and not sign the franchise tender. I'm sure Brady would be absolutely ecstatic if that happened.

Couldn't agree more, and Brady should read the tea leaves and hold out for a new long term 100 million plus deal and stick to it. Why wait until everyone can say you are too old and only get 1 year tags. If the Patriots want to play this way then the players should do the same and only do what is best for themselves.

Given the complete lack of appreciation so many Patriot fans have for their very best players I think every Patriot player should flip them off.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

That's putting it lightly. Brady would be absolutely livid. He can say that his favorite receiver is the open one all he wants. But history has shown that, when the chips are down, he looks to Welker far more than he looks to anyone else.

I agree with Brady's reaction, remembering his displeasure when The Twig escaped to Seattle and especially now when Tom has just a few playing seasons left. That said, imagine the dinner table arguments with Gisele regarding Welk.