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Re: Gasper analysis
If Reiss is right, and that's a big if, and all Welker was looking for was $18M guaranteed, then not getting a 3 year deal done is really foolish because it would have been a lot cap friendlier than a year at $9.5M and a year at $11.4M and a year at their dicretion essentially with nothing but unguaranteed salary and $3M +/- in remaining amortization to account for in 2014. And that unguaranteed 2014 salary is something they can squeeze a 33 year old Welker to adjust to whatever they need it to be or feel he's worth down to vet min.
Welker isn't impacting the future the way some here seem to have to characterize him impacting it to rationalize what just happened. None of those future deals need be structured in a way that they take up a lot of cap in the first year or even 2. Gronkowski's deal certainly doesn't. His deal spikes in year 5 when Brady may no longer be here and even if he is it can be restructured at that point to adjust for that. Brady will not have a $22M cap hit next season unless they plan to walk away from him after 2014. And even if that were the case since it already makes tagging him impossible (a tag of $26M+) they would then likely push a couple of million forward to make just the final year cap hit unpalatable.
And any talk of extending Hoyer is silly. He's gone after this season because (like all young developmental backups) he wants a chance to compete for a starting job and here all he can do is backup and hope for a shot that may never come. They won't pay him what he can get on the open market as a QB competing for a starting gig. Those guys get deals that average at least $2-3M plus very makable incentives. They wouldn't have tendered him if they even anticipated Mallett progressing to the point Hoyer did in his first camp... Hoyer was a #2 here as a rookie UDFA with no #3 on the roster and Brady coming back from an ACL.
If Mallet doesn't challenge Hoyer in the next 6 weeks you will see another QB drafted in 2013 and likely see a journeyman they once had interest in brought in to compete for that #2 slot in 2013-2014. Heck, if the wheels fall off Pioli's wagon in KC that guy could be Cassel as a failed franchise QB with limited upside elsewhere who was neither as good or bad as various factions assumed but is fine in limited duty in the right well established situation. And a year or two after that Hoyer could be back as a #2-3 safety valve as they transition from Brady to whomever replaces him as a starter here in 5 years.
Bill simply doesn't like paying market for the WR position and will only do so with a gun held to his head. Which would be fine if it didn't consistently put so much stress on the unit and the QB to deal with that mentality while running the most complex offense in the league year in and year out. BB has 2 years tops to figure that unit out again whether via the draft or more FA signings though because the entire unit currently has a 2013-14 expiration date stamped on it...
And this team is in great position cap wise going forward with more than $30M in cap space in 2013 before they even do whatever they will do about Brady's existing cap hit. And they should also be in good shape cash wise since they haven't really doled out any bonus to speak of this season (Welker is all salary) beyond their rookies and a few mid level FA's, Brady's $10M restructure and Gronk's deal that only required $8M up front. A Brady extension will likely cost them about $30M in cash up front, but he's also always been flexible and cooperative with them in structuring bonus money payout over 2 calendar years to allow them to manage cash flow they way they manage cap.
If Reiss is right, and that's a big if, and all Welker was looking for was $18M guaranteed, then not getting a 3 year deal done is really foolish because it would have been a lot cap friendlier than a year at $9.5M and a year at $11.4M and a year at their dicretion essentially with nothing but unguaranteed salary and $3M +/- in remaining amortization to account for in 2014. And that unguaranteed 2014 salary is something they can squeeze a 33 year old Welker to adjust to whatever they need it to be or feel he's worth down to vet min.
Welker isn't impacting the future the way some here seem to have to characterize him impacting it to rationalize what just happened. None of those future deals need be structured in a way that they take up a lot of cap in the first year or even 2. Gronkowski's deal certainly doesn't. His deal spikes in year 5 when Brady may no longer be here and even if he is it can be restructured at that point to adjust for that. Brady will not have a $22M cap hit next season unless they plan to walk away from him after 2014. And even if that were the case since it already makes tagging him impossible (a tag of $26M+) they would then likely push a couple of million forward to make just the final year cap hit unpalatable.
And any talk of extending Hoyer is silly. He's gone after this season because (like all young developmental backups) he wants a chance to compete for a starting job and here all he can do is backup and hope for a shot that may never come. They won't pay him what he can get on the open market as a QB competing for a starting gig. Those guys get deals that average at least $2-3M plus very makable incentives. They wouldn't have tendered him if they even anticipated Mallett progressing to the point Hoyer did in his first camp... Hoyer was a #2 here as a rookie UDFA with no #3 on the roster and Brady coming back from an ACL.
If Mallet doesn't challenge Hoyer in the next 6 weeks you will see another QB drafted in 2013 and likely see a journeyman they once had interest in brought in to compete for that #2 slot in 2013-2014. Heck, if the wheels fall off Pioli's wagon in KC that guy could be Cassel as a failed franchise QB with limited upside elsewhere who was neither as good or bad as various factions assumed but is fine in limited duty in the right well established situation. And a year or two after that Hoyer could be back as a #2-3 safety valve as they transition from Brady to whomever replaces him as a starter here in 5 years.
Bill simply doesn't like paying market for the WR position and will only do so with a gun held to his head. Which would be fine if it didn't consistently put so much stress on the unit and the QB to deal with that mentality while running the most complex offense in the league year in and year out. BB has 2 years tops to figure that unit out again whether via the draft or more FA signings though because the entire unit currently has a 2013-14 expiration date stamped on it...
And this team is in great position cap wise going forward with more than $30M in cap space in 2013 before they even do whatever they will do about Brady's existing cap hit. And they should also be in good shape cash wise since they haven't really doled out any bonus to speak of this season (Welker is all salary) beyond their rookies and a few mid level FA's, Brady's $10M restructure and Gronk's deal that only required $8M up front. A Brady extension will likely cost them about $30M in cash up front, but he's also always been flexible and cooperative with them in structuring bonus money payout over 2 calendar years to allow them to manage cash flow they way they manage cap.
