Is Houston better than NE?

[ausbacker]

I agree. I think we should be able to beat the Texans, but the 49ers might be tough on a short week without Gronk. In any case I don't believe the pats will get the number 1 seed. im pretty happy with a number 3 seed and 12-4 record.

Probably, but I'll back Tom Brady in against any D.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

It's being reported that Brooks Reed will miss 3-4 weeks. That considerably weakens the Texans run defense.

Provided the D can force a turnover or two, I believe the Patriots will beat the Texans at home.

Reed is a loss against the run,but he wasn't too stout of a pass rusher so that means rookie Whitney Mercilus who is more suited for pass rush is his replacement.

In other words they lose strength against the run but assuming will improve their already potent pass rush.

 

[VJCPatriot]

It has been the consensus for many weeks that Houston is the best team in the AFC and perhaps the NFL. I think the Pats have proved that they are every good as Houston.

Pats haven't proven they are better. They have to do it on the field. We'll see in a couple weeks which is really the better team.

 

[ausbacker]

Reed is a loss against the run,but he wasn't too stout of a pass rusher so that means rookie Whitney Mercilus who is more suited for pass rush is his replacement.

In other words they lose strength against the run but assuming will improve their already potent pass rush.

Having Brooks Reed and Brian Cushing out of their D is advantageous to the Patriots OL if they can minimize the damage JJ Watt will cause.

 

[Froob]

Honestly, I think they're going to run houston out of the house to something like 38-20(with a late garbage time score) similar to what the packers did to them. Schaub isn't an elite quarterback.

 

[The_Riddler]

If we end up having to go to Houston for the AFCCG, I am extremely confident that we could go down there and win. Especially if we walked into that game with a healthy team. No doubt in my mind. I am not really impressed with that team, they barely won these last two games against inferior opponents and they rely heavily on the run, which plays right into our hands.

To be honest, the tougher game for us will be the week before the AFCCG against either Baltimore or Denver. That's why it's critical that we somehow get this 2-seed, to not only earn the buy, but to also have the luxury of being able to play Denver or Baltimore in Foxboro.

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

You know, assuming Houston will get #1 seed when playoffs come....

I like the Pats to lose to the Texans this upcoming game, then beat them in their home in the playoffs. Like fooling them that we not as good as they are now, but then beat them in a game that matter most. I think it would be a strategic move for BB whether he wants to win this game or just play a lousy game. Because if the Pats put everything on the line and win this game and then lose to them in the AFCCG, then winning this regular season game doesn't mean anything.

I doubt a team has ever intentionally lost a game in order to fool a team into thinking they're not that good.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

There have been a lot of talented teams in the AFC over the last decade, but only Brady, Manning, and Roethlisberger have won the conference, winning the last nine and ten of eleven, with MVP Rich Gannon being the only other one. I would not call Schaub a weak link, but I cannot put him in the class of elite, Super Bowl capable quarterbacks. I also think that Kubiak coaches scared, much like Marty Schottenheimer or Bill Cowher. It's a big deal when your coach and QB have very little playoff experience.

So, overall the Texans are probably better than the Pats player-for-player, but I'm more concerned about Denver and even Pittsburgh.

 

[nekromantique]

hard to tell if the pats are better (ill guess well find out soon) but ive felt all year that the texans were overhyped....much like the falcons...

i'm far more worried about the niners game than the texans one.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Bedard's take in his weekly football column today:

5. Wouldn’t get hung up, even after the head-to-head matchup between the Texans and Patriots Dec. 10, on the “which team is better” debate. A lot is going to happen between now and a potential playoff matchup. But the bottom line is, the Texans and quarterback Matt Schaub are far from imposing. What they do on offense and defense should be in the Patriots’ wheelhouse.

Link (subscription site)

 

[goheels22002]

The Patriots are clearly better. Stop being obnoxious realists by saying bullsht like "Oh, you're only as good as your record"

No. These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can find.

2012 NFL Standings, Team & Offensive Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The running games are eerily identical. Neither team turns the ball over much. Schaub has 10 interceptions in 11 games and Brady has 3.

Schaub and Brady are both top 10 in the NFL in passer rating, passing yards, TDs, sack %, yards/attempt etc. Brady's a little higher ranked but I don't see that as a big deal given the blowouts against bad teams.

The defenses are similar, too. The Pats give up 3.9 yards/rush and the Texans give up 4.0 yards/rush. Houston has a better pass defense giving up 5.7 yards/pass vs 7.2 yards/pass for the Patriots. They also have a better Red Zone defense. Tha Patriots force a lot more turnovers and offensive penalties than the Texans. It seems to even out.

The kicking games are identical - Shayne Graham and Stephen Gostkowski have similar numbers - both guys are very good.

The Houston game will be very interesting and should be a great forecast for the playoffs.

 

[mayoclinic]

No. These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can find.

2012 NFL Standings, Team & Offensive Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The running games are eerily identical. Neither team turns the ball over much. Schaub has 10 interceptions in 11 games and Brady has 3.

Schaub and Brady are both top 10 in the NFL in passer rating, passing yards, TDs, sack %, yards/attempt etc. Brady's a little higher ranked but I don't see that as a big deal given the blowouts against bad teams.

The defenses are similar, too. The Pats give up 3.9 yards/rush and the Texans give up 4.0 yards/rush. Houston has a better pass defense giving up 5.7 yards/pass vs 7.2 yards/pass for the Patriots. They also have a better Red Zone defense. Tha Patriots force a lot more turnovers and offensive penalties than the Texans. It seems to even out.

The kicking games are identical - Shayne Graham and Stephen Gostkowski have similar numbers - both guys are very good.

The Houston game will be very interesting and should be a great forecast for the playoffs.

Houston deserves credit for their record, for their balance on both offense on defense, and for weathering adversity to win some tough games. They won 2 OT games, we lost 3 games by a total of 4 points. They seem to be developing some mental toughness and consistency. I have nothing but good things to say about how they are handling themselves this season.

With that in mind, I think there are a couple of things to be concerned about for those who see the Texans continuing to dominate:

1. Injuries. They are piling up. Cushing out. Brooks Reed out 3-4 weeks. Jonathan Joseph dinged. Brady James dinged. The RT dinged. Can they handle all of the injuries as adeptly as BB juggles the roster? Few teams can.

2. Wear and tear. Arian Foster already has something like 269 carries, which would put him on pace for 391 for the season. Is he going to wear down towards the end of the season? Make Foster less effective and Houston's offense because much more one-dimensional. The Texans might want to consider shifting some of the load to Ben Tate, just to keep Foster fresh.

3. Playoff experience. The Texans have had only 1 playoff game in their history, a loss last year. How will they be able to handle the pressure.

With that in mind, they have as talented a team as anyone, and as good a chance of winning it all as anyone right now, including us. I favor the Pats because of Brady and Belichick, but I'm obviously biased.

 

[Rob0729]

Right now, the Pats are better than the Texans. It is hard to argue against it. Over the last month, the Texans have struggled against inferior teams (Jags, Lions, Bears without Cutler, and Buffalo where they struggled for about three quarters). The Pats have blown out inferior competition in three out of four games.

The Texans defense has fallen apart (a lot due to injuries). It isn't going to get much better with Brooks Reed getting injured on Thursday and out for at least a month. I don't think they have the offense to keep up with the Pats.

 

[patsinthesnow]

No. These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can find.

2012 NFL Standings, Team & Offensive Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

The running games are eerily identical. Neither team turns the ball over much. Schaub has 10 interceptions in 11 games and Brady has 3.

Schaub and Brady are both top 10 in the NFL in passer rating, passing yards, TDs, sack %, yards/attempt etc. Brady's a little higher ranked but I don't see that as a big deal given the blowouts against bad teams.

The defenses are similar, too. The Pats give up 3.9 yards/rush and the Texans give up 4.0 yards/rush. Houston has a better pass defense giving up 5.7 yards/pass vs 7.2 yards/pass for the Patriots. They also have a better Red Zone defense. Tha Patriots force a lot more turnovers and offensive penalties than the Texans. It seems to even out.

The kicking games are identical - Shayne Graham and Stephen Gostkowski have similar numbers - both guys are very good.

The Houston game will be very interesting and should be a great forecast for the playoffs.

Offense:

Patriots: 37ppg
Texans: 29.7ppg

Defense:

Patriots: 22.2ppg
Texans: (Post Brian Cushing injury) 23ppg

Three teams have hang 30+ burgers on them since the injury: GB 42, JAX 37, DET 31.

We obviously need to see more, but I think the argument can be made the Pats new Talib/Dennard defense is better than the Cushing-less Texans defense.

 

[micronin127]

It is pretty even at this point.

Our offense vs. their defense: we can score on them. Wade Phillips gets a lot of credit, but his defense isn't multiple. They do what they do and don't make many adjustments. The injuries are piling up and they can be spread out and exploited with a possession passing game and if they go to a nickel or dime look we can hand the ball off. We'll be able to score.

Their offense vs. our defense: they can score on us. Worse, they can grind clock against us and keep our offense off the field. We haven't been able to consistently generate pressure and Schaub is good enough to find Andre Johnson and his TE or throw it to Arian Foster on a check down. Foster is an all purpose back probably a notch better than Fred Jackson and he'll be a problem. They'll be able to score.

Special teams: our kickoff returns aren't great. McCourty had one TD return vs. Jets, but is usually fortunate to make it out to the 20. Punt returns were looking great with Edelman, but now with him hurt we send Welker out to fair catch the ball. Mesko is great and Gostkowski has been great in previous years but has a lot more misses this year. Not sure I can say we have an edge here.

Turnovers: this is where we have to win the game, by taking care of the ball and making a big play. Live by the sword, die by the sword. But, this is what gives us a slight edge at this point. It is hard to count on the other team turning the ball over.

 

[jradMITEX]

3. Playoff experience. The Texans have had only 1 playoff game in their history, a loss last year. How will they be able to handle the pressure.

Actually two games, they beat Cinci at home, lost to the Ravens in Baltimore.

 

[JoeSixPat]

It has been the consensus for many weeks that Houston is the best team in the AFC and perhaps the NFL. I think the Pats have proved that they are every good as Houston.

Looking at their records is a bit deceiving. As most people know, the Pats 3 losses combine for only 4 total points. Houston's one loss to the Packers was by 18 points. Then last week the Texans nearly lost to one of the worst teams in the NFL and then got a very lucky win yesterday, under many circumstances.

The Pats offense is the best in the NFL, but more importantly, the defense is finally coming together and plays are being made. Especially in the secondary... Dennard looks solid and is exceeding expectations by far and along with Talib, they make a good combo. McCourty seems to play better at safety anyway. The front 7 is playing amazing with Big Vince dominating the DT position and Brandon spikes making huge steps forward from last year.

Houston has the edge right now in my opinion... In 2 weeks when these teams match up, the Texans are gonna have to be playing their absolute best to win.

You raise good points re: Power Rankings but as you indicated, the only important question is how these two teams match up.

And that's pretty close IMO - both teams are going to have to play their best if they expect to win.

 

[cbmane]

Neither team is clearly better than the other but I do give the slight edge to my NE boys mainly because of you guys passing game. Im a big fan of receiving TEs & I always compare NE core to ours (Owen, Graham, & Casey). It sucks Gronk wont be able to play, wish him a healthy recovery. Its no secret our defense havent been playing up to team standards these past few games & Im okay with that because they been exceptional all season. Houston pretty much shown the NFL they can beat teams by controlling the clock with the running game & playing great defense or playing sucky defense & going pass heavy when down. Let me not be too hard on the D though because in the 4th quarter & OT of both games they made BIG PLAYS!

My brother is a die hard NE fan so I pull for you guys majority of the time. I would even go out on the limb & say he like them better than the hometown team.

 

[JMC00]

According to boomer esiason Denver is better than both (but both beat Denver) and what the Patriots have done the last four games is not impressive because who they did it against. Although no mention of how the Pats utterly dominated that defense (they did a piece on the Denver d) and pretty much dominated Denver. What was it 31-7 with 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter?

 

[MightyFooda]

All I know is the Texans fade every year and the Pats get better. They may be evenly matched now, but by the end of the year the Pats will be the better of the 2. I am honestly more worried about Denver and Baltimore, once we are in the playoffs.