Idle thoughts - We are on to 2015

[patfanken]

I’m feeling a little prolific, and I have some time to kill until the snow stops and I have to go out and dig out my car. So I want to take this day after to officially “move on”. I want to talk about the 2015 New England Patriots and other initial observations concerning this off season.

1. Interesting stat I read today that I bet most people don’t know. Your NE Patriots are the youngest team ever to win the Superbowl at 25.3 years. There is no earthly reason why last night’s win should be a capstone to Brady’s long career. Rather it should be a jumping off point of a 2-3 year run, much like
2. I think the Pats, Bengals, Colts and Cowboys will be among the teams that will be poised to make runs at the title next year, however I wonder if Denver, Seattle, and GB might not take a step back next year.
3. Denver- Most people expect Manning to come back, but even if he does, he has a new HC, new offense, at least 2 of his top 4 offensive weapons will be gone (most likely Welker and the TE Thomas). Also that defense might take a step back due to age and FA. Peyton has failed in the last 3 playoffs with better teams than he will come back with next year. And it’s for that reason, that for the first time I’m really thinking that he might just call it quits. I’m wondering if at his age, he really wants to put himself through the microscope of another season that likely won’t end in the ONLY thing that can wipe some of that playoff failure stink that is FINALLY starting to stick to him, a superbowl win.
4. GB- I wonder if GB might just take a dip because of a few reasons. I wonder just how much of a hit, McCarthy is going to take in his own locker room for the way he coached that last game. I also think his division will get much harder, He has a few aging guys who might slip. And most importantly, Aaron Rodgers might very well be the most skillful QB in the league, but he seems to be getting hurt on an increasingly regular basis, and as how he goes, so go the Packers.
5. Seattle – How Pete survives his questionable call might be telling. There is no question that many in that lockerroom are angry about it. Will they stay angry could be a story. Also their OC brutally threw Lockette under the bus, while trying to evade his own culpability on the call. It was a really bush league move worthy of Rex Ryan, and can’t sit too well with the players. Also Seattle is going to have to start to deal with some of the salary cap issues that the rest of league has to deal with by signing Wilson and Wagner to big deals. I also think the luster is coming off the “Legion of Boom” Offenses are ready to catch up to it a bit, and while it can still be good, it might not be so statistically dominating next year.
6. Except of the Pats, it seems, teams rise and fall in this league. Through FA and the draft all teams WILL get better, so the Pats can’t stand pat either. Without knowing exactly the names of all the individuals, here are my reasons my expectations are for the Pats to field a deeper, more talented, and sounder football team in 20015 than they did this season.

Offense
A – thru 3 factors I expect the OL to significantly improve. First FA- I have been informed by the people around here who know, that there are a couple FA interior OLmen who can be had for the $3-5MM/yr range and who would likely be upgrades over Connolly and Wendell (who don’t suck btw). 2nd, thru the draft – I fully expect to see one of our first 2 draft picks to be an interior offensive lineman that would (if Stork is any example) upgrade our current group. 3rd, who knows how Kline and/or Devey might develop in another year within the system. In summary – I’m very comfortable with my top 3 OT’s, and I’m more than confident that through the draft, FA and/or more experience the depth and quality of my interior OL will significantly improve.
B TE’s Wright, Hooman, and Gronk are all under contract, if we didn’t change a bit, we’d be far better off than 95% of the league. And that’s not to say we couldn’t improve the back ups
C. WR’s – I really want them all back competing for spots and continuing to work with Brady (Dobson, Edelman, LaFell, Amendola, Boyce, and Tyms). Considering the combination of size speed and quickness, we have everything we need in that group to continue to keep our offense one of the top 5 in the league. Never underestimate the value of playing together. David Givens is STILL the leading catcher of playoff TD’s from TB – BTW as much as Amandola proved his worth over the end of the season, he still needs to take a significant pay cut if he wants to stay with the team, however how much that cut ends up being has gone down. But even if he’s gone we have of a varied skill set and size without adding any new significant FA or high draft pick at WR
RB- Just like the WR’s and TE’s, I’m perfectly happy to stay with what we have. Blount, Grey, Bouldin, and Vareen are a nice group of complementary pieces to go along with Devlin. Maybe White might develop into a viable Vareen alternative or back up, but I’m not counting on it. (JMHO)
Defense:

1. DL – I’m encouraged by Easley’s potential. Chris Jones and Siliga are solid pieces and Chandler and Ninko are 2 good set pieces. I also believe that between Moore, Buchannon and Ayers, the Pats will develop or acquire depth at the DE/OLB position. To me the big questions are whether to keep Vince and Branch. I doubt we do both and I don’t think we can keep Vince at that $8+MM cap number for next year. I once thought that our #1 pick had to be an offensive lineman this season, but now I think it needs to be another DT
2. LB – Don’t underestimate Mayo’s return to the improvement of this defense. Not only does it expand the depth, it will expand the flexibility of what Patricia can do with is packages with another quality LB like Jerad. Both Hightower and Collins should continue to develop and improve, and Cassillas has a nice skill set to be a fine #4. Again I expect the talent to improve (mostly thru development and return from injury) without much of a roster shift.
3. Secondary – What was the strength of a good defense this year, should only get better and deeper for next year. Why wouldn’t we expect Butler, Ryan, Dennard, Harmon, Ebner, and Wilson all to improve with another year of experience in the system.
4. Understand I make all my assumptions that all the key FA’s return. Revis, McCourty, etc. Only Ridley (as much as I’d love to have him), seems unlikely. But we will have to see. April 1 is the key date with Revis, March 8 is the big day for Vince

BOTTOM LINE – We could have pretty much everyone back from the youngest team ever to win a superbowl. We have the money to re-sign everyone one we want, and the draft assets to improve the talent base at the top. You can’t win a another superbowl by writing down names on a paper and assigning them value. But what you CAN do is to determine on paper if you are likely to have a decent shot at another title….and we surely do.

 

[VrabelJr]

I won't be surprised if Vince retires. He's talked glowingly about coaching college lately and after coming back from a tough injury, I doubt he wants to potentially have to do that again. Plus, there's nothing wrong with going out on top.

 

[patfanken]

For the record, I really did have a real title for this thread, but I screwed up uploading the thread, and I have no idea how to edit the title. It was supposed to be "We are on to 2015"

 

[patfanken]

I won't be surprised if Vince retires. He's talked glowingly about coaching college lately and after coming back from a tough injury, I doubt he wants to potentially have to do that again. Plus, there's nothing wrong with going out on top.

I can only hope that that's the case, but IIRC, Vince is due a $4MM bonus on March 8. They might be too much of a payday to walk away from

...and thanks for whomever fixed my title.

 

[Fencer]

A healthy Vince is still worth a lot of money. I envision him staying, with his contract always being on terms that aren't all that costly if he goes down with injury.

 

[patfanken]

guess this thread might have been a bit too soon, eh?

 

[amazinPats]

Great post as usual, Ken. In all fairness though, the Pats were fortunate this year with injuries. That was a healthy team in the Super Bowl. Injuries can attenuate some of that marvelous depth. We need the favor of the injury gods in order to fulfill the expectations of this talented team. We don't want a repeat of 2013-14.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Not really, Ken. I mean, when are you ever energized for football more than when your team has just won the big one? Still, it's hard to be objective just now.

My thought looking back on this season is that it revealed the difference between talent and toughness. As it happened, the Pats played a lot of teams with winning records and/or big hopes. They put a lot of them away easily, others they just squeaked by. And then there were the playoffs. You may not like the Ravens or their attitudes but they gave the Patriots everything they could handle. The Colts, on the other hand ...

My guess is that, while talent levels come and go, injuries affect teams differently, and so on, that kind of mental and physical toughness is much, much harder to add from one season to the next. Of course, we're basking in the success of the team that epitomizes toughness ...

So who are the other really tough teams to watch out for next year?

In the AFC you have to count in the Ravens. And I'd add the Steelers. Though the Pats didn't play them, they gave the Ravens a hard fight, even without Bell.

In the NFC, it's the Seahawks. I'd add Green Bay, even though their collapse at the end of the Seahawks game was very poor.

Soft teams (ones who weren't going to come through when things were on the line):

Cincinnati (so what else is new?)
Colts
Detroit
Arizona
Carolina
Denver (the way their last two seasons ended)
San Diego
Miami

Teams I'm not sure about:

Cowboys (could it be that they've finally got a coach who can turn them into a winning culture?)
KC (the results at the end of the season say "no", but their beating of the Pats was genuine)
Saints (are they really that bad?)

Teams that didn't make the playoffs but could come good:

Eagles
Texans (if they get a QB)
Giants (yes, I know ... but they're still the Giants)
Bills (yikes!)

 

[DarrylS]

For the record, I really did have a real title for this thread, but I screwed up uploading the thread, and I have no idea how to edit the title. It was supposed to be "We are on to 2015"

If you use the edit feature and then go to "advanced" option you should be able to do it...

 

[DarrylS]

As much as I love this team, expect BB to make what we consider some WTF??? decisions on this team.. also suspect some tweaking of some contracts.. Amendola and Mayo for example.

Always thought some of the really good veterans who have never been to the "Tournament" might come in for a Vet Minimum or friendly contract, but since have realized that this is just a pipe dream.. it is about the money, glory is nice, but money is better.

All season we have lamented the refrain about how Brady's talent is being wasted by substandard talent, thank god that BS has been put to bed... but in about two weeks the "short attention theater" will commence with the "BB does not know how to draft", "BB should not evaluate Dbacks", "How did they let ______ get away", "BB has no respect from his players because of _________", "Tom Brady needs someone to "stretch the field"". Yada, yada, yada..

But come next January, we will all sing BB's praises as we enter "The Tournament" once again..

 

[Mike the Brit]

The Pats have four big off-season decisions, all on defense: Revis, McCourty, Mayo and Wilfork.

After that, things are as easy as they could be for a team with a QB who is nearly 40.

In BB I trust.

 

[Fencer]

The Pats have four big off-season decisions, all on defense: Revis, McCourty, Mayo and Wilfork.

After that, things are as easy as they could be for a team with a QB who is nearly 40.

In BB I trust.

Yes, but:

• 1 of our 2 starting CBs has a contract that needs restructuring.
  
• Our better starting safety is a FA.
• You're suggesting that 1 of our 3 presumed starting LBs has a contract that might need restructuring.
• You're suggesting that 1 of our 2 starting DTs has a contract that needs restructuring. Our other starting DT in the Super Bowl is a FA.
  
• Our #3 edge rusher is a FA.

Also, Arrington seems overpaid for his role, but if Revis returns we have 5 other CBs.

 

[Mike the Brit]

Yes, but:

• (A) 1 of our 2 starting CBs has a contract that needs restructuring.
  
• (B) Our better starting safety is a FA.
• (C) You're suggesting that 1 of our 3 presumed starting LBs has a contract that might need restructuring.
• (D) You're suggesting that 1 of our 2 starting DTs has a contract that needs restructuring. Our other starting DT in the Super Bowl is a FA.
  
• Our #3 edge rusher is a FA.

Also, Arrington seems overpaid for his role, but if Revis returns we have 5 other CBs.

I don't see your "but". (A) to (D) repeat my points. The other issues are (relatively) minor.

 

[BTTA]

Yes, but:

• 1 of our 2 starting CBs has a contract that needs restructuring.
  
• Our better starting safety is a FA.
• You're suggesting that 1 of our 3 presumed starting LBs has a contract that might need restructuring.
• You're suggesting that 1 of our 2 starting DTs has a contract that needs restructuring. Our other starting DT in the Super Bowl is a FA.
  
• Our #3 edge rusher is a FA.

Also, Arrington seems overpaid for his role, but if Revis returns we have 5 other CBs.

All true, but not a lot to deal with for an off season (look at the other teams' personnel challenges!). What a luxury for a SB champion! There's no crash coming after the big season. Amazing.

So the opportunity presents itself to take one of the positions where they are average-good and make it excellent. OG, WR, and RB are clear opportunities. Who knows what the evil genius has up his sleeve in this regard? The draft can easily be a "best player available" draft.

 

[IllegalContact]

Offense:
- unfortunately, the guys who stand to be upgrades over connolly and Wendell will not come that cheap maybe Boling, but not sure of how much of an upgrade he would be
Defense:
1 & 2: Wilfork is more important than Mayo at this time. DT/NT in his mold go till they're 35 or so...Ted Washington was effective until 38.......I'd shoot to try to knock down the salary portion of their deals.....if a few million can be saved between us, I'd rather have them here

it all start with Revis......if the pats can cut a deal with him that cuts his cap number for 2015 down to 10M, then they can keep who they need to keep (mccourty) and get some other stuff done.

I don't see the pats being very active in free agency this year. at least not early

They have a decent stockpile of draft picks with an extra pick at the top of the 4th round and maybe a compensatory pick at the end of the 3rd round which will give them 3 picks in a pretty short duration. they can use their 3rd pick and TB's 4th to target someone of their liking earlier....

I'd like to spend all the draft pick on the trenches with the possibility of picking up a high caliber LB in the first or 2nd round........the pats are in a situation where they can ans should afford to overload on quality at LB.......it is still the most important unit on defense, and dictates the success of top defenses.....maybe look for lightning twice with benadrick mckinney from miss st in rd 2.......

 

[Gwedd]

Whatever happens, I still expect some thing to be done which keeps Revis for at least another year. I'm torn on Big Vince. He played darned well this year, and I'd love to see hime for one more year. he might be willing to restructure a bit to stay. However, as said above, he's talked about coaching at the College level, and It would not surprise me one whit to see him retire if a good college job were to present itself, especially if the "U" came calling.

I think that the only other ones that might be let go would be Boyce or Dobson, and Amendola, though the money is there to keep them. Hard to get a real feel for the WR's just now.

Overall, I'm pretty content to see how things play out. We'll have lots of time to talk about it prior to the draft.

Having siad that, I'm still wagering that Goodell doesn't last until draft day.

 

[farn]

The team is young and talented. They have important issues to address, but they are still in an excellent position.

Who are the vets that want to come on a one-year-prove-it-deal and a chance to win at the same time ? Those guys can be key, if you hit on the right ones.

Also : I wonder about the 30 somethings. Both starting guards. I was never down on them even though Wendell, especially, was an easy target for many. Vince is important as a leader. BB will need to decide the number at which VW is worth it. I suspect Big Vince (and Mayo) are worth more $ than what you and I think because too many people underestimate the value of having strong leaders setting the tone in the locker room. Talent is great. But winners work hard, get good leadership from vets. Cleveland : they could use VW and JM.

 

[mgteich]

OFFENSIVE LINE
Yes, an OL might be available for $3.5M in 2015 cap space. I'm not sure that Belichick is interested in a aging OL star. Presuming that we sign Solder to a new contract, we should draft an OG or two early in the draft as upgrades to Kline and Devey. Maybe one will beat out our starters, more likely not. IN anyc ace, we have a solid line. We need only re-sign or replace Connolly, and draft another.

OFFENSE
Maybe Amendola will take a pay cut. As a whole, we are NOT over-paying at the WR position. My hope is that we return what we have, on of the best passing games in the NFL. Losing Amendola would create a major hole for no reason.

I would like to see us re-sign Vereen. He is the key to our short passing game.

My bottom line is that I would like to extend Solder and use the savings to bring back Vereen. We have a great offense and we can bring it back.

DEFENSE

The key is Revis. He will sign a long-term deal or leave. Of course, there could be another two year deal that is really a one year deal, deferring money to 2016 dead money. Most contract structures end up saving about $12M or so off the current cap (say a $21M bonus and a $1M 2015 salary). Obviously, if Revis goes elsewhere, there would be $20M available for signing a free agent CB and still having the same $12M available.

Mayo and Wilfork will likely be restructured (perhaps for the same potential compensation) with cap savings for both. Obviously, there is more available if either leave.

With the above cap savings, we need to re-sign McCourty. We also should bring back Casillas. I would bring back Branch. A 4-man rotation at DT has worked well. Ayers will start for another team.

BTW, as with Amendola for the offense, Arrington is a key member of the defense. We save little be cutting him. At times, he has been the critical factor in winning. Arrington is going nowhere. He is part of critical troika of Revis, Browner and Arrington, a trio who can cover the very best sets of receivers in the NFL.

AN ASIDE
We need to make Gostkowski the highest paid kicker in the NFL. It is great not to ever worry about a kick.

 

[Sicilian]

One intangible factor that can't be overlooked, is all these young players that made up the youngest SB winning team ever now have CHAMPIONSHIP experience. They know now just what it takes to win it all, how to stay up during the low points and keep working even when it seems you've got it all figured out. If we'd lost this game, and were faced with the prospect of losing a veteran like Wilfork, I would be a lot more worried. Now I feel guys like McCourty, Collins, Hightower, Jones, Nink, etc can pick up the leadership slack. They're battle tested now.

Of course, I still hope Vince comes back, even if it's in a reduced role. Get him another high draft pick on that DL, and let him teach the rookie and Easley how to lead the next generation of Patriots bigs.

 

[zydecochris]

Great post as usual, Ken. In all fairness though, the Pats were fortunate this year with injuries. That was a healthy team in the Super Bowl. Injuries can attenuate some of that marvelous depth. We need the favor of the injury gods in order to fulfill the expectations of this talented team. We don't want a repeat of 2013-14.

Agreed, we were fortunate and maybe a little lucky to be so healthy. It seems like we were due, we were so snake-bit last year and some other years.

One injury related area I would like to highlight where we were a bit fortunate is with TB's health. Older players don't recover from injury as fast, and they often get injured more. I think of Kurt Warner in his last few years, he wasn't terrible when he could play (albeit not at TB's level) but he was always injured. TB got hit a ton this year (at least it seemed that way to me), but he always bounced right back up. In fact, he didn't look like a 37 year old quarterback in the pocket this year (I think I remember reading that he had worked on his pocket movement in the off season).

I think we were a bit fortunate with TB's health this year. Perhaps this is a reason why the OL needs to be looked at carefully in the off-season.