I have to ask, why is everyone so high on Brooks Reed?

[Patriot Missile]

Jerrod Mayo - 1st Round
Jermain Cunningham - 2nd Round
Brandon Spikes - 2nd Round

Mayo and Spikes are ILB's. I guess I should go back and specify to OLBs. 3 LB's in 11 years still falls in the rarely category.

 

[midwestpatsfan]

For me, the pick of Reed with any of the 1st 3 picks is too risky. I realize that there is no perfect OLB ever, and if there was he would be the 1st pick in the draft.
So, then I have to ask myself what do I want from and what can I live without from my rookie OLB?
For my liking, I will take Kerrigan because I can watch the tape and I can see production getting after the QB and playing the run, which if I had to guess would be BB top priorities. Reed showed flashes of it, but not on the consistent level that Kerrigan did.
Many will say Kerrigan is not as athletically gifted and I think that is a miconception. I think he played in a different role than Reed and had more responsiblities and still put up ridiculous pass rush numbers.
Kerrigan has that intensity and work ethic like Reed and I would rather be trying to teach coverage than edge setting and finishing when you get close to the QB.

Finally, I think the whole OLB coverage thing is a little overplayed in this day and age. I just do not see the Patriots having the OLB dropping into coverage all that much. It is something that will come up, but it is not like they are dropping back into coverage a ton. What you really need from the OLB is the instincts and burst to cover the RB on a screen or coming into the flat, and I think Kerrigan and Reed are not all that far off from each other in that category. If the Patriots are having the OLB trying to cover a TE on a consistent basis, it is going to be trouble no matter who you throw out there.

 

[patchick]

For me, the pick of Reed with any of the 1st 3 picks is too risky. I realize that there is no perfect OLB ever, and if there was he would be the 1st pick in the draft.
So, then I have to ask myself what do I want from and what can I live without from my rookie OLB?
For my liking, I will take Kerrigan because I can watch the tape and I can see production getting after the QB and playing the run, which if I had to guess would be BB top priorities. Reed showed flashes of it, but not on the consistent level that Kerrigan did.
Many will say Kerrigan is not as athletically gifted and I think that is a miconception. I think he played in a different role than Reed and had more responsiblities and still put up ridiculous pass rush numbers.
Kerrigan has that intensity and work ethic like Reed and I would rather be trying to teach coverage than edge setting and finishing when you get close to the QB.

Finally, I think the whole OLB coverage thing is a little overplayed in this day and age. I just do not see the Patriots having the OLB dropping into coverage all that much. It is something that will come up, but it is not like they are dropping back into coverage a ton. What you really need from the OLB is the instincts and burst to cover the RB on a screen or coming into the flat, and I think Kerrigan and Reed are not all that far off from each other in that category. If the Patriots are having the OLB trying to cover a TE on a consistent basis, it is going to be trouble no matter who you throw out there.

I don't disagree...in fact, I'd guess that 99.6% of this board would take Kerrigan over Reed. The problem is, so would the rest of the league.

So IMO the question isn't Kerrigan vs. Reed, but more like Kerrigan at #17 vs. Reed at #33.

 

[Water Boy]

For what it's worth Andy Hart of PFW spoke to Reed at the combine and suggested he wasn't the brightest. Apparently he played in a very simple scheme and might be a bit of an idiot. Considering what BB demands of his linebackers I don't see Reed as our guy if the intelligence issue is true.

It may be true that Reed isn't the brightest bulb, but I personally would not rely on Andy Hart's opinion on this matter. Anyone know if there are any other credible scouting reports about Reed's makeup/character/smarts or lack thereof? For that matter, has anyone seen Wonderlic scores from the combine?

 

[Water Boy]

Mayo and Spikes are ILB's. I guess I should go back and specify to OLBs. 3 LB's in 11 years still falls in the rarely category.

Duly noted.

 

[Zardnok]

Reeds stock is definitely on the rise. I do not see him available at 33, I think if the Pats want him, they need to use 28 and he may not even be available then either.

I look at all of Reeds "negatives" and most of them are from a 4-3 DE stand-point. His work-ethic and athleticism will insure he finds a welcome home some where in the league, the only question is how high he ultimately goes.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Finally, I think the whole OLB coverage thing is a little overplayed in this day and age. I just do not see the Patriots having the OLB dropping into coverage all that much. It is something that will come up, but it is not like they are dropping back into coverage a ton. What you really need from the OLB is the instincts and burst to cover the RB on a screen or coming into the flat, and I think Kerrigan and Reed are not all that far off from each other in that category. If the Patriots are having the OLB trying to cover a TE on a consistent basis, it is going to be trouble no matter who you throw out there.

Maybe there is a misconception of what "OLB dropping into coverage" means.

Remember the Patriots play a soft zone defense most of the time. That means each defender is primarily responsible for their "area" but also responsible for providing help in secondary assignments. The defender has to be able to react (change of direction, quickness and arrive with bad intentions) to opposing players in their "area" and in secondary help assignments.

So an OLB dropping into coverage must

- be able to back pedal to the correct zone while reading the offense.
- anticipate open/soft spots in the zone.
- change direction and be on the move the second the QB's eyes come into their area and an opposing player is there.
- burst to the receiver.
- arrive with nasty intetnions and secure the tackle. No YAC for the opposition.

Now what you really have to do is ask yourself is if Dallas Clark runs a shallow out to the sidelines after the WR has cleared out the CB, can Kerrigan 1.) recognize it. And 2.) react or burst sudden enough to get out there and cover it. Also if Kerrigan can't get there in time to prevent the catch, can he arrive there in enough time to prevent YAC?
Or is he not athletic enough to do this and will a safety then be forced to make the tackle 25 yards down field from the original catch.

This is just my thought, but I think no way, he is too stiff.

However if Indy has the ball and it is 3rd and 9, would I rather have Kerrigan or TBC coming off the edge after Manning with his hair on fire? No doubt it is Kerrigan in my mind.

 

[midwestpatsfan]

Maybe there is a misconception of what "OLB dropping into coverage" means.

Remember the Patriots play a soft zone defense most of the time. That means each defender is primarily responsible for their "area" but also responsible for providing help in secondary assignments. The defender has to be able to react (change of direction, quickness and arrive with bad intentions) to opposing players in their "area" and in secondary help assignments.

So an OLB dropping into coverage must

- be able to back pedal to the correct zone while reading the offense.
- anticipate open/soft spots in the zone.
- change direction and be on the move the second the QB's eyes come into their area and an opposing player is there.
- burst to the receiver.
- arrive with nasty intetnions and secure the tackle. No YAC for the opposition.

Now what you really have to do is ask yourself is if Dallas Clark runs a shallow out to the sidelines after the WR has cleared out the CB, can Kerrigan 1.) recognize it. And 2.) react or burst sudden enough to get out there and cover it. Also if Kerrigan can't get there in time to prevent the catch, can he arrive there in enough time to prevent YAC?
Or is he not athletic enough to do this and will a safety then be forced to make the tackle 25 yards down field from the original catch.

This is just my thought, but I think no way, he is too stiff.

However if Indy has the ball and it is 3rd and 9, would I rather have Kerrigan or TBC coming off the edge after Manning with his hair on fire? No doubt it is Kerrigan in my mind.

I think with Reed, you run into the same problem but for different reasons. While he may, and I say may, be quicker to get there, I don't think he is even close to being able to recognize it. Neither Kerrigan or Reed have been asked to do this, but I would feel more comfortable having the guy who knows what he is supposed to be doing and where he is supposed to be as opposed to the guy who would've gotten there a little faster had he known what to do. I feel more confident saying Kerrigan would have a better chance of making the play than Reed right now.

 

[WesWelker83]

I get the appeal at first glance, he has that height, weight, speed that BB mentioned a few years back, but has anyone really watched him play?

I watched 3 games of his this year.(Iowa, USC, and OKie ST.)

The Iowa game showed that he had some raw potential and a prospect for the Patriots, but the USC and OK. St game also showed that he has a lot of work to do.

Right now, he is a one trick pony with a limited skillset in that role. He is a pass rush specialist without any pass rush moves. He has a good first step, but he either trys to speed rush to the outside(and does not have great bend when doing that) or he tries to bull rush.

In the bowl game they ran at him all day long and he was lost out there trying to set the edge. I came away unimpressed and thought he would be a good mid-round pick to try and develop.

On top of that, he admitted himself that he played a very simplistic role in college and has to learn schemes. I just do not trust taking a guy high that is so far behind in basic football knowledge.

Finally, as a guy who admitted that his only job was to rush the QB, to have a career high of 8 his sophomore year is concerning to me as well. For a guy who is going to have to transition to another position and learn from scratch new responsibilities, how many sacks can we expect from him in the NFL?

Reed just doesn't seem like a BB type pick unless that pick is made in the 3rd round or later. I cannot get on board with people wanting him at 28 or 33.
What am I missing here? am I wrong?

Reed's lack of experience and inability to set the edge is the main reason I bet we won't draft him. If I had to bet on the OLB we take in this draft I still think it will be Jabaal Sheard from Pitt at 60 or 74. Based on BB drafting history he hates taking OLBs high in the draft. I don't blame him because of the high bust rate. Even Cunningham was a late 2nd rd pick. ESPN's Todd McShay has Sheard listed as a mid to late 2nd round pick and I think hes BB's guy at this position. He has the same issues as Kerrigan (dropping into coverage) but we take him about 40-50 spots later. Sheard has two years starting experience with proven production. He has shown he is a good run defender and that he can set the edge as well as rush the passer. He also has the height, weight, 40 time, 10 yard split, and big hands (10 inches) that we look for at that position.

Does anyone have Sheards three cone, 20 yard shuttle, and bench press reps at the combine?

 

[BPF]

Reed's lack of experience and inability to set the edge is the main reason I bet we won't draft him. If I had to bet on the OLB we take in this draft I still think it will be Jabaal Sheard from Pitt at 60 or 74. Based on BB drafting history he hates taking OLBs high in the draft. I don't blame him because of the high bust rate. Even Cunningham was a late 2nd rd pick. ESPN's Todd McShay has Sheard listed as a mid to late 2nd round pick and I think hes BB's guy at this position. He has the same issues as Kerrigan (dropping into coverage) but we take him about 40-50 spots later. Sheard has two years starting experience with proven production. He has shown he is a good run defender and that he can set the edge as well as rush the passer. He also has the height, weight, 40 time, 10 yard split, and big hands (10 inches) that we look for at that position.

Does anyone have Sheards three cone, 20 yard shuttle, and bench press reps at the combine?

Did not bench and no 3-cone at combine: Jabaal Sheard | Pittsburgh, DE : 2011 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

 

[BPF]

With projections it's always a difficult task. The issues with Reed are that he did not fare all that well vs better competition and he wasn't overly effective as a DL vs the run because he could be overpowered. He also doesn't have experience in pass coverage. The first two can be overlooked when studying his game film and the fact he won't be playing 4-3 DE. The other issue seems to be partially answered from his workout as OLB at the combine, he seemed like a very fluid athlete and totally comfortable in the drills. He 1.54 10-yd split as mentioned is elite.

From his college work we know the following:
3 yr starter;
always plays hard, hustles and is super quick off the snap;
seems well suited for rush OLB in a 3-4;
plays low, is athletic, runs well and is relentless;
is not a one trick pony, has a bull and speed rush;
good form tackler who delivers the big hits;
plays on special teams;
smart in the classroom;
fiery leader on and off the field, great intangibles.

Seems like he could fit in Pats 3-4.

 

[cstjohn17]

I am in the usual cycle of spinning myself round and round, flip flopping like crazy. My latest thinking is that the cost of investment is too high for a part time player. I think they focus on offensive line at 17 and then front seven with the next two picks.

Of the two I prefer Sheard over Brooks and would actually pass on Brooks and look for a Elmore type player in rounds 5 or 6.

 

[patchick]

I am in the usual cycle of spinning myself round and round, flip flopping like crazy. My latest thinking is that the cost of investment is too high for a part time player. I think they focus on offensive line at 17 and then front seven with the next two picks.

Of the two I prefer Sheard over Brooks and would actually pass on Brooks and look for a Elmore type player in rounds 5 or 6.

I'm flipping & flopping right with you. I'm leaning Sheard right now, too...but no thanks on Elmore, who made most of his plays courtesy of double teams on Reed, and who doesn't look agile enough for OLB. I actually prefer the 3rd DE in Arizona's rotation, D. Reed.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Because Reed gave Iowa fits and knew Stanzi well. Yes, I watched the game, he and DT Lolomana Mikaele stood out to me as disruptive forces who allowed Elmore to step up on the other side.

 

[bucky]

The reality of the situation is that all the top 3-4 OLB type players have a wart or two.

Quinn - Might be the best suited to our defense, but has health and character issues.

Kerrigan - Best at setting the edge and is relentless as a pass rusher, but too stiff for coverage duties.

Smith - Pure 4-3 DE who happens to have the right measurables.

Reed - Projects well as a pass rusher and might become adequate in coverage, but is horrible at setting the edge.

Of these guys, only Smith is a 1st rounder in my book. And even that is probably irrational, I just happen to think he's by far and away the best pass rusher of the bunch and will immediately be our best pass rusher (Quinn is good too, but is not a "clean" prospect).

Kerrigan is comparable to Anthony Spencer - the only other Purdue DE drafted in the 1st round. Spencer played in Wade Phillips' 1-gap zone blitz-happy defense, and opposite DeMarcus Ware. So arguably, he should have had an easier adjustment. Still, Spencer didn't make much of in impact in his first 2 years. Personally, I'm not that high on Kerrigan.

Reed, in theory, is in the same boat as Kerrigan. While he was less productive in college, it's doubtful that it will make his conversion more difficult.

With Cunningham already on the roster, the question is whether BB is willing to spend 2 high (1st 2 rounds) picks OLB conversion projects and play both of them. A better solution would be an experienced OLB, but that may not be in the cards this year. Another option is Akeem Ayers - he's a complete OLB, though probably won't help the pass rush on 3rd down.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Because Reed gave Iowa fits and knew Stanzi well. Yes, I watched the game, he and DT Lolomana Mikaele stood out to me as disruptive forces who allowed Elmore to step up on the other side.

Has anybody watched the Zona USC game?

 

[MaineMan]

Also posted this in the "DE Priority" thread. Just a listing of DE/OLB prospect college production stats, sorted by TT. The (number) indicates seasons as a "starter". QBH = hurries.

Kerrigan (3) ----- 191 TT - 54 TFL - 30.6 sk -- 2 QBH -- 7 PD - 13 FF
Ayers (3) ------- 181 TT - 27 TFL - 13.0 sk -- 0 QBH - 10 PD -- 5 FF
Clayborn (3) ---- 172 TT - 35 TFL - 17.0 sk - 17 QBH -- 7 PD -- 6 FF
Cunningham (3) - 147 TT - 32 TFL - 17.5 sk - 11 QBH -- 7 PD -- 5 FF
Sheard (3) ------ 139 TT - 35 TFL - 19.5 sk - 38 QBH - 14 PD -- 5 FF
Romeus (3)* ---- 135 TT - 38 TFL - 19.5 sk - 17 QBH - 11 PD -- 4 FF
Reed (3) -------- 107 TT - 24 TFL - 16.5 sk -- 1 QBH -- 5 PD -- 5 FF
-
Acho (2) -------- 131 TT - 31 TFL - 18.0 sk - 20 QBH -- 6 PD -- 8 FF
Karl Klug (2) ----- 121 TT - 26 TFL -- 9.5 sk -- 9 QBH -- 8 PD -- 3 FF
Smith (2) -------- 112 TT - 29 TFL - 16.0 sk -- 1 QBH -- 7 PD -- 2 FF
Houston (2) ------ 105 TT - 34 TFL - 18.5 sk -- 3 QBH -- 3 PD -- 3 FF
-
Quinn (1) --------- 52 TT - 19 TFL - 11.0 sk - 12 QBH -- 3 PD -- 6 FF
-
* Romeus' stats are 2007-09 only (inj 2010)

I'm beginning to like Acho. The report that he's been getting private tutoring in FLA on his own for making the switch to 3-4 OLB, in combination with his stats has me now liking him more than Reed, in spite of Reed's athleticism. I'm beginning to wonder if Reed isn't a player more like Guyton but in a bigger package.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Has anybody watched the Zona USC game?

I don't recall seeing that one - I know I did watch USC to check out Tyron Smith and came away liking the Kalil kid on the left side. Damned lying eyes always trying to confuse me!

 

[Patriot Missile]

Also posted this in the "DE Priority" thread. Just a listing of DE/OLB prospect college production stats, sorted by TT. The (number) indicates seasons as a "starter". QBH = hurries.

Kerrigan (3) ----- 191 TT - 54 TFL - 30.6 sk -- 2 QBH -- 7 PD - 13 FF
Ayers (3) ------- 181 TT - 27 TFL - 13.0 sk -- 0 QBH - 10 PD -- 5 FF
Clayborn (3) ---- 172 TT - 35 TFL - 17.0 sk - 17 QBH -- 7 PD -- 6 FF
Cunningham (3) - 147 TT - 32 TFL - 17.5 sk - 11 QBH -- 7 PD -- 5 FF
Sheard (3) ------ 139 TT - 35 TFL - 19.5 sk - 38 QBH - 14 PD -- 5 FF
Romeus (3)* ---- 135 TT - 38 TFL - 19.5 sk - 17 QBH - 11 PD -- 4 FF
Reed (3) -------- 107 TT - 24 TFL - 16.5 sk -- 1 QBH -- 5 PD -- 5 FF
-
Acho (2) -------- 131 TT - 31 TFL - 18.0 sk - 20 QBH -- 6 PD -- 8 FF
Karl Klug (2) ----- 121 TT - 26 TFL -- 9.5 sk -- 9 QBH -- 8 PD -- 3 FF
Smith (2) -------- 112 TT - 29 TFL - 16.0 sk -- 1 QBH -- 7 PD -- 2 FF
Houston (2) ------ 105 TT - 34 TFL - 18.5 sk -- 3 QBH -- 3 PD -- 3 FF
-
Quinn (1) --------- 52 TT - 19 TFL - 11.0 sk - 12 QBH -- 3 PD -- 6 FF
-
* Romeus' stats are 2007-09 only (inj 2010)
.

Nice chart. Funny how certain players project out at certain things. Sheard sticks out like a sore thumb with his 38 QBH. Get his hands up too. I'm going to look into the buzz with that guy. His stats show disruption.

Acho had nice numbers for a 2 year player. Should of stayed for 1 more year. What he'd get with a rookie salary next year will probably more than what he get this year as a late 2nd early 3rd pick. Like him.

Romeus had good production for a guy that missed his last year. I have no problem taking a late flyer on him if he checks out medically.

Kerrigan #s don't add up. When you look at his sack total it is spectacular 30.5 very nice. But only 2 qbh's? Maybe Box or someone can expain? Either he is dead on, wraps up well and never misses or the scheme somehow makes the numbers pan out that way. Or the chart is just wrong and they don't know how to take stats at Purdue. 14 ff's means he has a knack of taking the ball away. Looks good. Wish I watched more Purdue games this year.

 

[BPF]

The Scouts Notebook

* Now let’s talk about Arizona DE Brooks Reed. If you go by the numbers, you’ll think he’s okay, but nothing special. For the year he had 26 solo tackles, 6.5 sacks, and 1 FF. Those are pedestrian numbers. Put on the 1st half of the Oregon State game and you’ll swear Clay Matthews is back in college. Reed dominated when he was single-blocked. I actually started to feel bad for the OSU LT. He got beat outside and inside. Then Reed did the ultimate humiliation. He exploded off the ball and went right into the LT and threw him to the ground like a rag doll. Reed pounded the QB just as the ball left his hand. Reed only had 2 tackles and 1 sack in the game, but his impact was tremendous. He hit the OSU QB over and over. OSU had to start doubling him and then rolling the QB to the other side. I watched parts of a few other games (UCLA, Iowa). Reed wasn’t as good, which tells you the OSU blocking was part of the problem. Reed still played at a high level in those games and impacted them. He is a really impressive prospect and a lot of fun to watch. He showed up big time at the Senior Bowl, which boosts his value.

Reed can explode off the ball. He uses a great shoulder dip to get low and around blockers. He has excellent body control. He’s got good feet. I think he projects to 3-4 OLB. Reed dropped into coverage on some zone blitzes and looked natural in space. He’s smart. He has a good motor. There is a lot to like about him. He can absolutely play RDE in a 4-3 scheme. You wouldn’t want him on the left side, having to set the edge on run plays headed right at him.

I now think Reed will go in the 1st round. It won’t shock me to see him go above Akeem Ayers or Justin Houston. The success of Clay Matthews will really benefit Reed. Teams will see a very similar guy and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. I don’t know that Reed will be that good in the NFL, but he can thrive in the right situation. Really good player.