Re: Michael Holley believes Patriots will draft Ellis or Dorsey
And anyone who remembers Seymour playing NT as a rookie knows that its was a failed experiment that the Pats have refrained from revisiting.
Okay. First of all, Seymour was a Pro-Bowl NT. And as a young player, it's not like he coasted on name recognition. Failed experiment? No. Best fit? No. But Belichick took the gamble of moving a successful NT to DE.
Okay, back to the argument...
I started to read through this thread, but by post 50, my eyes started to hurt, so apologies if I am unwittingly plagiarizing someone(s). No apologies for the random nature.
When is the next time the Patriots are going to get the opportunity to draft a guy like Ellis or Dorsey? Not anytime soon. Those big, agile, smart football players tend to go in the first dozen picks. We can't rely on a Wilfork-type slide. So if Belichick really likes Dorsey or Ellis, and he feels they are the best value at #7, he will, and should draft them.
As said previously, Seymour's contract expires after the 2009 season. After the 2008 season, one of three things will happen:
A) Seymour will sign an extention designed to keep him a Patriot for a few more years.
B) Belichick will ask him for an extention and Rich will decline and be cut.
C) Seymour will play out his contract and leave as UFA.
A and B are the most likely scenarios. Even though the Patriots might have the Cap room to let Seymour play out his contract, it doesn't mean they'll let him take it up. Belichick had the cap room to keep Rosey this year. He had the cap room to let Rodney play for his original deal last season. In both cases BB felt that the player's value was
no longer worth the cap hit their contracts called for. Seymour is due for a $11 million+ Cap hit next season. If he declines to renegotiate (and likely will to get one more Free Agent contract), he will either be cut, or if BB isn't sure of a replacement, he'll suck it up and allow Rich to play out the deal and take the Comp pick. Drafting D or E will allow Belichick to control that situation.
Why is Graham brought up as an example of drafting by need? Since Belichick traded up a dozen spots to get him, I'd say it was a player who had fallen past his value to BB. Ditto Chad Jackson. Now, these certainly were positions of perceived need, don't get me wrong. But if Belichick had stayed at his original draft position, it is unlikely he would have drafted whatever the top TE or WR remaining on his board was. That is drafting from need. Belichick gets the players he wants at the intersection of need and value. Which sometimes requires a trade up, sometimes a trade down. If he stands pat, he'll draft the best value available as opposed to the best player at a perceived position of need. Interestingly enough, Graham and Jackson were likely very different cases. It is likely Belichick targeted Graham with his combo of blocking and athleticism and knew he'd likely have to move up to get him. It is likely that Belichick never expected to get Jackson, and said
Jeebus, I have this guy as a mid-1st rounder, and he's fallen to the mid-30s????? Let's grab him.
In conclusion, my first impulse was this report was a smoke screen to attempt to influence other players' sliding, but the more thought put into it, the more it wouldn't surprise me in the least for Belichick to draft D or E if they were available. At some point they're going to need youth at the physically demanding position of DE, and they might never be in a better position to land an elite talent and control that player for the next six years.
