Right, you can scratch the Ed Reed comment then. They are still 1 OT loss to the Pats away from being the #1 seed.
Selective memory is not applicable. If you say 'if this one play happened they would be X', why wouldn't the opposite be just as applicable? If the following would have just happened:
1) Today they were one 4th and 1 Cincy play from the two yard line with 10 seconds to go from lowly Cincy beating them.
2) A month ago the Ravens were one OT play away from being beaten by the semi lowly Houston Texans (a game they probably should have lost).
3) 2 and a half months ago they were one OT play away from losing to the lowly Bills.
4) 3 and a half months ago they were one less Jet fumble near the red zone from possibly losing 12-10.
** IF the Patriots were the team they are today they would have beaten Baltimore easier (as they have been doing to many of the best the NFL has to offer).
The Ravens are exactly what they should be imho. There a tough football team whose defense is the strength of the team, with a reliance on their run game, a fair passing game, but have demonstrated weakness in the O and occasionally pass D that has made them susceptible to defeat or near defeat. Personally I think Pitt is slightly better though I fear them less because we own them for some reason.
The Patriots have demonstrated -- against many of the best that the NFL has to offer -- that giving Brady time means we will score A LOT and the threat of their run game is mostly done for the evening. Balt or even Pitt, Jets, KC will likely not keep up with our Offense if they don't get to Brady (look at how many times we have scored 34+ and how often those teams have scored 35 or more -- and against weak defenses the few times they have done it). Indy has the best chance to do that simply because of Manning.
Providing the Patriots don't beat themselves with TO's, stupid penalties and missed assignments (something we have done but not often), here is how it plays with Baltimore:
A) We give Brady time but can't stop their run (i.e. GB): We are slightly better than 50% to win. If they are really gashing us with their run we likely lose (i.e. Cleveland)
B) They get to Brady often (Jets Week 2): We will likely lose.
C) We give Brady time and we keep their run game respectably in check: We very likely win - and win easily (Chi, Pitt, Jets2, Miami, Buff2 and more).
1) Chances are very good we give Brady time against anyone. The OL has done a good job of it most all year.
2) Chances are decent to ok that we keep the run in check. We have done it more often than not. However, we have allowed running enough to have concerns about it. This is actually my single biggest concern going into the playoffs....
