Free Agency and Amendola/Revis Predictions

[DaBruinz]

OK.

We will have Arrington, Butler, Ryan and Dennard coming into camp. There is no reason to cut any of them. It is reasonable to come to Game 1 with six corners on the 53. It makes even more sense to come into camp with 6 solid corners.

Perhaps, Dennard will come back to camp a new player and beat out Arrington, Butler and Ryan for the #3 corner position and be our nickel for 2015. I just don't see that happening. Arrington did very well in certain game plans; Butler at other times. Ryan has been an OK dime back at times.

The #3 Corner position is the Slot corner.. I do not believe that Dennard has the skills for that position.. I think Dennard is strictly an outside corner..

 

[patsfaninpa]

We're 4m over the cap right now. Let's start there. Think about that for a second. We have draft picks to sign. And, BB always likes a little wiggle room. Brady isn't able to re-do his contract again. These guys are ufa's; McCourty, Vereen, Gostkowski, Branch, Ayers, Casillas, Ridley and Connolly.

First order of business is extending Revis. I'm assuming we do that. Then we're under the cap and have enough to keep McCourty too.

Some guys like; Amendola, Browner, Vollmer, Solder and of course Mayo can have their contracts re-worked.

If you released Mayo, with his guarantee and cost of finding a replacement doesn't make sense. You'd have 2 lb's. Collins and Hightower. He's staying.

My not so popular prediction is that we release VW. Traded Richard Seymour. Still painful. He was the man. Let Ty Law walk. Ty "Freakin" Law. Logan Mankins last year. The writing is on the wall.

 

[DaBruinz]

@Miguel - Am I reading your page correctly? If Mayo were to pass his end of the year physical, his cap hit for 2015 would drop by the 4.5M?

 

[DaBruinz]

Wilfork, Ninkovich,Mayo is where you save cap.

The players where you can save large sums of cap space are:
Wilfork, Ninkovich, Browner, Revis, Solder.

Not sure how you think the Pats can save cap space with Ninkovich since his cap hit is relatively small and the savings is small as well..

 

[mgteich]

Mayo, Wilfork, Revis, Vereen, and McCourty are all definitely coming back next year imo.

Do you have a secret source of cap money?

 

[mgteich]

@Miguel - Am I reading your page correctly? If Mayo were to pass his end of the year physical, his cap hit for 2015 would drop by the 4.5M?

His guarantees would go down by $4.5M. Once mayo passes a physical, the patriots have all the cards to "force" a restructure.

 

[DaBruinz]

We're 4m over the cap right now. Let's start there. Think about that for a second. We have draft picks to sign. And, BB always likes a little wiggle room. Brady isn't able to re-do his contract again. These guys are ufa's; McCourty, Vereen, Gostkowski, Branch, Ayers, Casillas, Ridley and Connolly.

How do you figure that the Pats are 4M over the cap when the new cap number hasn't been announced? That is just a PROJECTED number and can change by 20M just by not picking up Revis' current option. It can change by another 4.5M if Mayo passes his end of year physical (if I'm reading Miguel's page correctly).

First order of business is extending Revis. I'm assuming we do that. Then we're under the cap and have enough to keep McCourty too.

Some guys like; Amendola, Browner, Vollmer, Solder and of course Mayo can have their contracts re-worked.

If you released Mayo, with his guarantee and cost of finding a replacement doesn't make sense. You'd have 2 lb's. Collins and Hightower. He's staying.

My not so popular prediction is that we release VW. Traded Richard Seymour. Still painful. He was the man. Let Ty Law walk. Ty "Freakin" Law. Logan Mankins last year. The writing is on the wall.

As some others mentioned there is a good chance that Vince could retire. I actually can see that. He would be going out on top. He would still be relatively healthy.. And he could focus on losing weight to make sure he is around for a long time. I could also see Vince being brought over to the coaching side of things as an Asst. D-Line coach..

 

[mgteich]

I digress, but wasn't Mayo leading the pre-game speech/cheer with the defense at the superbowl?

As I recall, that didn't stop Belichick from firing Milloy.

 

[mgteich]

Siliga is an ERFA.

The Pats free agents are as follows:

Revis - though the Pats hold an option year
McCourty - the Pats and he have supposedly been close to an extension
Akeem Ayers -
Alan Branch -
Sealver Siliga -
Dan Connolly -
Steven Gostkowski - A must re-sign IMHO
Shane Vereen - A must resign IMHO
Steven Ridley
Danny Aiken
Chris White
Jonathan Casillas -
James Develin - Exclusive Restricted Free Agent (ERFA)
Josh Boyce -
Joe Vellano -
Greg Orton - ERFA
James Morris - ERFA
Brian Tyms - ERFA

Below are the 9 players who were on the practice squad at the end of the season. Their contracts are expiring and it remains to be seen which ones will get a contract from the Pats
Jake Bequette -
Chris Barker - Probably will be back
Garrett Gilbert -
Justin Green - Probably will be back
Caylin Hauptmann - Probably will be back
Eric Martin - Probably will be back
Deonte Skinner - Probably will be back
Daxton Swanson - Probably will be back
Jonathan Krause - Probably will be back

 

[JackBauer]

Eh. Haven't we seen how much mileage you can get out of a 3rd or 4th round RB?

Yup, and if they're smart they will go after Ridley and draft a mid-round RB.

 

[VrabelJr]

The #3 Corner position is the Slot corner.. I do not believe that Dennard has the skills for that position.. I think Dennard is strictly an outside corner..

Exactly. Dennard also doesn't have long enough arms to play slot. Slot is all about arm length + burst speed. Dennard's arms are 30 inches versus Arrington who has almost 33" arms.

 

[farn]

Solder is an interesting one. (1) he just proved "you can win a SB with Solder at LT" - that is huge (2) yet the signing of Cannon was interesting, though it is probably just a sign that "BB is making sure there is an injury back up plan in place" (3) and Vollmer may very well be the best OL they have, is he a LT (Cannon going RT) and (4) how does Solder see himself ? Does he wanna be a Mankins and stick to a number ? (5) how good IS Solder ? At times, we likey - at times, we no likey....

 

[mgteich]

Your offer is insulting to a player of Revis's intelligence.

A 30 year old football player of Revis's stature is not going to take a back loaded deal especially when Patrick Peterson's contract and Richard Sherman's contract are not back loaded.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/arizona-cardinals/patrick-peterson/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/richard-sherman/

A 3 year, $42 million deal would entail salary cap hits of $14 million per season. The New England Patriots can hammer out the details of the signing bonus, roster bonus, and guarantees as part of the $42 million package.

http://www.patscap.com/revis.html#revis

The $5 million prorated signing bonus amortization associated with Revis's original contract remains on the New England Patriots salary cap for the 2015-16 NFL Season whether Revis is on the roster this season or not.

You have a strange analysis. I suggested that Revis be handed $22M for playing year 1. And you think that this is an insult.

TOTAL - $42M
Signing Bonus - $21M
2015 - $1M
2016 - $10M
2017 - $10M

And yes, some of 2016 and 2017 would be guaranteed.

In what way do you think that this contract is "back-loaded" and unacceptable to Revis. Revis gets $22M up front and is guaranteed more later. Obviously, the total compensation and guarantees are subject to negotiation, and probably can be worked out. You seem to think that the AAV is the most important factor. I suggest that MORE important is the roster bonus and guaranteed money. BTW, in my scenario, the 2015 cap hit does not vary with the AAV, since the variables are 2016/2017 salaries and guarantees.

 

[mgteich]

The patriots has a SB line with Solder, Vollmer and Cannon. The open question is NOT "how good is Solder". The question is how much will the patriots be willing to pay and how much will Solder accept. The default is one year for $7.45M.

Solder is an interesting one. (1) he just proved "you can win a SB with Solder at LT" - that is huge (2) yet the signing of Cannon was interesting, though it is probably just a sign that "BB is making sure there is an injury back up plan in place" (3) and Vollmer may very well be the best OL they have, is he a LT (Cannon going RT) and (4) how does Solder see himself ? Does he wanna be a Mankins and stick to a number ? (5) how good IS Solder ? At times, we likey - at times, we no likey....

 

[patsfaninpa]

How do you figure that the Pats are 4M over the cap when the new cap number hasn't been announced? That is just a PROJECTED number and can change by 20M just by not picking up Revis' current option. It can change by another 4.5M if Mayo passes his end of year physical (if I'm reading Miguel's page correctly).



As some others mentioned there is a good chance that Vince could retire. I actually can see that. He would be going out on top. He would still be relatively healthy.. And he could focus on losing weight to make sure he is around for a long time. I could also see Vince being brought over to the coaching side of things as an Asst. D-Line coach..

Jerry Jones said last week that he expects the cap to be at 146m. Figure he knows more than most of us. I would love for VW to go out on good terms. He can still play though. Just not at our cap figure.

 

[farn]

The patriots has a SB line with Solder, Vollmer and Cannon. The open question is NOT "how good is Solder". The question is how much will the patriots be willing to pay and how much will Solder accept. The default is one year for $7.45M.

You are right, of course. So what do you figure ? I think it's risky to NOT keep Solder even if that salary is high. And from what I understand, starting LTs aren't growing on trees. Nor are they always available at #32 (though Light was a second rounder).

If you had to guess : what does the line look like in September ?

 

[farn]

Jerry Jones said last week that he expects the cap to be at 146m. Figure he knows more than most of us. I would love for VW to go out on good terms. He can still play though. Just not at our cap figure.

Tough call. When Seymour left there were still many vet DLs on the team and leaders in the locker room. This team is very young and there is value VW brings on and off the field. The ideal would be for him to return at a lower number - but Vince doesn't roll that way. And, I'm ok with his stance. But I'm not sure I'm ok with his projected 2015 cap hit.

 

[Marqui]

Do you have a secret source of cap money?

Yes, it's called contract restructuring.

 

[DaBruinz]

Jerry Jones said last week that he expects the cap to be at 146m. Figure he knows more than most of us. I would love for VW to go out on good terms. He can still play though. Just not at our cap figure.

What Jerry Jones expects and what becomes reality are two different things.. With the SB posting the highest number of TV viewers in the history of any TV broadcast (114.4M Avg, with a peak of 120.8M) and revenues reporting to be up across the board, there is a good chance that it's even higher than that.

The NFLPA has already come out and said that it expects it to be higher.. Which is saying something..

Time will tell. And as I pointed out, the Pats have $24.5M that can be "freed up" with two administrative moves.. Declining the Revis option and Mayo passing his physical.

 

[JackBauer]

You are right, of course. So what do you figure ? I think it's risky to NOT keep Solder even if that salary is high. And from what I understand, starting LTs aren't growing on trees. Nor are they always available at #32 (though Light was a second rounder).

If you had to guess : what does the line look like in September ?

Perhaps Solder-Draftee/FA-Stork-Wendell-Vollmer.