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Free Agency and Amendola/Revis Predictions


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http://www.patscap.com/

As of January 31 the Patriots have a total of $147,231,728 devoted to projected to be signed or tendered players. The Patriots have $4,616,819 in dead money. $147,231,978 + $4,616,819 = $151,848,547 in total cap commitments. I am projecting that the Patriots will sign all 9 practice squad players and make tender offers to all 5 ERFAs. The 2015 League cap is projected to be $146 million. My current projection for the Patriots 2015 adjusted cap number is $147,879,554. $146,000,000 (Projected League Cap) + $6,442,054 (2014 CarryOver Amount) - $4,562,500 (LTBE/NLTBE adjustment) = $147,879,554. $151,848,547 minus $147,879,554 = $(3,968,993) overage.

$147,231,728 + $4,616,819 - $6,442,054 + $4,562,500 = $149,968,993

I'm not sure where the $146,000,000 projected league salary cap stems from.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2015/01/29/nflpa-salary-cap-projection-2015/22559403/

The NFL management council informed teams last month the 2015 cap is expected to be $138.6 million to $141.8 million. The union disagrees and will issue its own projections before the NFL scouting combine begins Feb. 17, Smith said.
 
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I don't know a whole lot about the CAP but DA cap hit is like 5.7 million and his dead cap number is 3.6 so the pas only save like 2 million by cutting him ? if that's the case I don't see a reason to cut him for only 2 million he was great in the playoffs maybe he can bring some of that into the start of 2015

By cutting him you save about $2M this year and $2.4M bonus still remaining on the contract for a total of $5.4M

How are you getting a total of 5.4m for cutting Amendola? I'm not understanding that.

@Miguel proposed the following options about 6 weeks ago, as it pertains to Amendola, my favorite of which is the bolded, as it actually saves more money to lessen his salary than it would to outright cut him. As always, we need to account for the replacement player as well, which is huge in this situation, particularly when you're the backup to Julian Edelman, a player who has had some concussion issues lately :

  • Lower Danny Amendola’s salary from $4 million to $1.9 million – net cap savings of $2,100,000 which is $510,000 more than what would be achieved by releasing him. Amendola’s 2015 cap number would then be $3.6 million. Releasing Amendola before June 2nd would cause a dead money hit of $3.6 million. For the same amount of cap space as releasing him the Patriots would have on their roster a capable backup for Edelman. I outline other cap scenarios for the Patriots and Danny Amendola in this blog post.
  • Release Danny Amendola for a net cap savings of $1,590,000
  • Lower Danny Amendola’s salary from $4 million to $745,000, the lowest minimum salary for a player with Danny Amendola’s experience for a cap savings of $3,255,000. I just doubt that Amendola would agree to such a paycut.
- See more at: http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1093#sthash.MdjAmnr1.dpuf
 
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Amendola has got to spend some time in the weight room this offseason. His arms look like sticks. He has a kicker's build.

Edleman dedicated himself in the weight room a few years ago and the results are obvious. Amendola has got to do the same; otherwise he is risking another injury.
 
Revis and mccourty signed long term. Mayo restructures. Wilfork traded. Amendola takes a payback to be with his lover edelman

Wilfork traded? Could i ask you reasoning for that move?
 
Why trade Wilfork after paying him a $4 million roster bonus on March 10?
 
While I trust the miguel numbers, period, which probably re-sets the Amendola conversation more accurately... MGT, did you add 2m and 2.4 m to get 5.4m, or did I read wrong?

Amendola indeed made his case in the stretch, but I think we can in all fairness get a restructure out of him. Tim Wright is another keeper, if you ask me, but we'll see. Amendola is a contributor (by the late numbers) but was not one for much of the time of his deal. I think he takes a one-time dip, with another "prove it" round built in that makes a cut or a raise the options (i.e., low dead-money hit in future seasons if cut)... can that be done? Basically build in an early bonus where if he lives up to potential, we pay? I see him capable of earning a bigger role but think there's a million or two to be saved by paying him by what he's proven. (When we get to Revis, I think the logic goes against us, to a much less cap-friendly result... but he proved every dime of it. Unless he wants to do us a favor... I think most of this impact will have to be absorbed.)

Jonas Gray (Grey?) is a weird one for me. One big game, then it was Blount time. I am assuming he is on a rookie deal, and pulled a rookie stunt. Oversleeping must have just been the tip of an iceberg, given his disappearance. Or, he just wasn't showing anything in practice, because he practiced against the Pats' D instead of the Colts. Thinking we keep him because he's cheap, but once again, I'd have to research that opinion. If he doesn't cost much, it's great to have an easily available back-up if Blount goes down. Assuming Blount is locked up. That situation just confuses me. Who am I kidding, it all does.

Ayers might not be gone, with the glut represented on the market by Pierre-Paul, Freeny, Umenyiora, and Arakpo out there... with four proven vets/big names/shiny objects, I'd love to be a fly on the wall where Ayers is being discussed. Played half a season w/Tennessee, nothing happened. Two knees you'd think were gone. Sure on the Pats he showed he can contribute... but can he contribute here? What else is out there on our budget... what is he trying to earn? I think if he tests the waters, we get a decent deal w/him for next season.

The elephant in the room is that I now see Revis as a must-keep. Since the opposite of what I think generally happens, we'll see where that goes. Revis opens up the rest of the defense, and gives Bill all his toys to play with. We'll know by March 10. Of course he too could restructure but I don't know why he would. He was already on a prove-it year, and he proved it. Another ring? Feh. Maybe he'd feel like he could be the piece that puts [name of competitive team here] over the hump, if the Pats won't pay. I think if it comes to it we pay... restructuring can push that into future years but I think for the most part we still bite most of that bullet this year.

This was a season of Brady evolution, if you ask me - back to how he can "beat you so many ways." I see investments on both lines, still... but I am wondering whether the next strategic move is toward the 2.5-second QB. It certainly fits in with the future direction, if we assume that Grapes is the future. It makes upgrades along the O-line desirable but less all-or-nothing. It also cuts down on demands for additional "downfield threats..." That's so 2007. I think they try to save money and not shoot for a flashy free-agent wide-out - maybe a middle class guy w/potential. So Amendola made a case for himself when it counted, which counts more than disappearing earlier on... but probably they chisel some off that cap hit, given the length of his non-performance. Wilfork...? Restructure. They want him, he wants to be here, do the magical cap-friendly deal.

"They all need to restructure" isn't an option... we'll have to lose somebody, and with Brady and Revis taking something like $39M in cap room this coming season, I expect the unexpected (unless the unexpected is a much more friendly Revis deal... which I just don't know that Revis wants to do... come on Darrell, we <3 you so much....)

Anyway, just idle musings after reading Miguel & some of the other articles (Balistieri) and some other musings here. I'm quite happy to be proven wrong, but just as it was "unthinkable" to lose the Ginger Beard Man a couple days before this season, I'm expecting unthinkable offseason moves this year too to get to the best team of 53, not the best 53 men, next September.

So much goes into it, between the money side, the evaluation side, and the BB chess-playing side. But I just don't see him trying to play the chess game he's played for so long, trying to get production out of the front 7 w/a weak secondary. This D only gets better, but at the cost of long-ball production, unless Tyms or Boyce truly emerges. Or Dobson, but he's drifting into Chad Jackson territory for me.

Now watch us trade away our whole draft to get a #1 receiver :)
 
Wilfork traded? Could i ask you reasoning for that move?
Wilfork has a 9 mil cap hit. There are plenty of teams in need of a NT. Why cut him outright? Unless Wilfork restructures, I think he is a goner. We are currently 4 mil OVER the cap. Lets hope they figure out Revis long term and lock up mccourty. Then ghost, then vereen, then ayers.
 
Wilfork has a 9 mil cap hit. There are plenty of teams in need of a NT. Why cut him outright? Unless Wilfork restructures, I think he is a goner. We are currently 4 mil OVER the cap. Lets hope they figure out Revis long term and lock up mccourty. Then ghost, then vereen, then ayers.
So would you trade him after paying him a $4 million roster bonus?
 
So would you trade him after paying him a $4 million roster bonus?
I dont want to trade him. We need him, but 9 mil cap hit is high for a 2 down player. I hope he restructures
 
WV has all the leverage now. The team just did this to him and the "we all want to win a ring" thing dosent really work as well as it used to. WV has 2 rings now. Its going to be about principle first, money second.
 
KDP, where did SB49 go on your sig? I thought you updated!
 
KDP, where did SB49 go on your sig? I thought you updated!
Idk, im on tapatalk right now. Will check it out later. Also ther is another kdp on here as well.
 
Wilfork has a 9 mil cap hit. There are plenty of teams in need of a NT. Why cut him outright? Unless Wilfork restructures, I think he is a goner. We are currently 4 mil OVER the cap. Lets hope they figure out Revis long term and lock up mccourty. Then ghost, then vereen, then ayers.

Why wouldn't he restructure?
 
So would you trade him after paying him a $4 million roster bonus?

I don't understand these things, but how would a restructure with vince go if he was amenable to it? Mostly salary cap mitigation?
 
I dont want to trade him. We need him, but 9 mil cap hit is high for a 2 down player. I hope he restructures

You think his contribution to the line, defense and team is just a "2 down player"?
 
Why wouldn't he restructure?
Posters use "restructure" to mean two very different things.

Some us the term to mean pushing compensation to future years, usually by moving salary and/or a roster bonus into a signing bonus. Players only rarely have an issue with this since they have no reduction in compensation. Sometimes the team throws in an extra $1M because they need to the cap money so badly. Yes, I think that Wilfork would move most of his roster bonus and salary into a new signing bonus.

Others use "restructure" to mean that the player should take a pay cut. This is entirely different. Some folks are suggesting this for Wilfork, Mayo, Amendola, Arrington and Browner.
The team and Wilfork spent a lot of time re-negotiating before the 2014 season. Wilfork has done his job. I don't see him taking a pay cut. I think he'd rather pay for the same money for someone else than take a voluntary pay cut before free agency starts.
 
Before consider all of Miguel's new contracts for Amendola, let us for a moment consider that Amendola might not want a new contract and wants to see what he is worth if the patriots have no interest in fulfilling his contract. So the team would need to decide whether to cut him or let him play for a year UNDER THE CURRENT contract. If the cost is TRULY only $2.1M, wouldn't we all want to keep Danny? But I don't think that it is.

KEEP DA AND CUT HIM NEXT SPRING
2015 cost - $5.7M plus incentives (this includes one year of bonus)
2016/2017 cost - $2.4 of unamortized bonuses.
Total Cost - $8.1M

CUT DA NOW
2015 cost - $3.6M
2016/2017 cost - $0M

I must have something wrong. My calculations show that it would cost the patriots $8.1M if he played the year under his contract (presuming that he is cut after the year is over) and $3.6M if he is cut now. That is a savings to the patriots of $4.5M.

How are you getting a total of 5.4m for cutting Amendola? I'm not understanding that.

@Miguel proposed the following options about 6 weeks ago, as it pertains to Amendola, my favorite of which is the bolded, as it actually saves more money to lessen his salary than it would to outright cut him. As always, we need to account for the replacement player as well, which is huge in this situation, particularly when you're the backup to Julian Edelman, a player who has had some concussion issues lately :

  • Lower Danny Amendola’s salary from $4 million to $1.9 million – net cap savings of $2,100,000 which is $510,000 more than what would be achieved by releasing him. Amendola’s 2015 cap number would then be $3.6 million. Releasing Amendola before June 2nd would cause a dead money hit of $3.6 million. For the same amount of cap space as releasing him the Patriots would have on their roster a capable backup for Edelman. I outline other cap scenarios for the Patriots and Danny Amendola in this blog post.
  • Release Danny Amendola for a net cap savings of $1,590,000
  • Lower Danny Amendola’s salary from $4 million to $745,000, the lowest minimum salary for a player with Danny Amendola’s experience for a cap savings of $3,255,000. I just doubt that Amendola would agree to such a paycut.
- See more at: http://www.patsfans.com/salary-cap/?p=1093#sthash.MdjAmnr1.dpuf
 
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