FO Film Study from December 2013: Brady in decline.

[Archeryaddict12]

Brady missed Dobson on a lot of deep throws.

But is it him overthrowing to avoid an int and where he thinks only Dobson can get it or is it a missed pass? Tom has int phobia, and that might play into his deep throw placement.

 

[All22PatsFan]

But is it him overthrowing to avoid an int and where he thinks only Dobson can get it or is it a missed pass? Tom has int phobia, and that might play into his deep throw placement.

he is wide open downfield on a bunch of throws:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYkoKgX2Zz0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MYu3CUQlMQ&list=UUSy2yfJBTkv-k1NK6toF91Q

 

[mmasterkillah]

Brady still throws as beautiful a ball as just about anybody in the league; and he isn't all of a sudden a dumbass. He's not declined, but the team around him has.

The talk of Brady's "decline" should embarrass anybody who watches the NFL. Hmm, before Moss and Welker he put up comparable stats to what he is now.

He may have had the worst cast of pass-catchers last season... certainly among

Peyton "Pancake" Manning can barely out-throw Colt McCoy's sister, yet he put up (what was it??) 56 TDs. QB play.

Brady is the best QB in the NFL, and I don't think it's that close. You can have Stafford, Rodgers, Manning, Luck... I'd take their respective receiving cores, but at QB, I'll take the best in the business... Mark Sanch, errr. TB12.

 

[Joker]

I remember Elway was in decline his last two seasons....how'd THAT work out for the Broncos...?

 

[Archeryaddict12]

he is wide open downfield on a bunch of throws:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYkoKgX2Zz0



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MYu3CUQlMQ&list=UUSy2yfJBTkv-k1NK6toF91Q

Yes he has missed Dobson sometimes. Not every QB is 100% accurate 100% of the time. And he is open sometimes, but this guy was still getting chemistry with Tom and honestly film only tells so much. But Brady in decline, yeah he declined as he had a new receiving corp each week and still put up very good numbers. This was one of the worst olines in the Brady era and let him get sacked 41 times, 2nd most of his tenure in New England. You have to add context and details, you can't look at stats without knowing what else was going on. Stats and film are only part of the equation in determining decline.

 

[Guts]

IDGAF What anyone else says we have the best quarterback in the NFL he proved it last year despite those un Brady like stats and throws his will to win brought us to the third AFCCG here's hoping with more help given to him he can get that 4th ring

 

[Jangles]

wish I could read the article

the stupid side bar thing ruined this thread

 

[Nikolai]

Given what he had to work with, I thought last year was one of his finer years. He didn't blow up the world circa 2007, and I don't expect that ever again, but I could see another year or two like 2010, and that's fine with me.

As for evaluating his decline, there is simply not enough data to compare his recent work against the body of work he did in the past.

 

[RayClay]

One of his best years, he carried the team on his back. Numbers have their place, but they don't replace watching and using your brain.

Where were the receivers? Gronk down, jailbird gone, Amendola down, two rooks schooled, then both injured. So he made his punt returner into a 100 catch star.

I bet most teams wish they had a qb in decline who could still take his team to the conference championship with that.

 

[JPsPats]

My only concern with Brady last year was missing completely open receivers on occasion. His short game is still methodical but as far as deep balls he was throwing them out of bounds and such.

With the rookies now entering year 2 maybe the chemistry will be better.

Brady at 80% is still one of the best in the game today.

 

[Sticky Caulk]

The interior OL sucked. It sucked worse than it has in a very long time. The run blocking was excellent. The Pass blocking was an absolute embarrassment. The injuries the Patriots suffered paled in comparison to Ryan Wendell, Dan Connelly and to a lesser extent Logan Mankins consistently bad play on obvious passing downs. If the OL is the same this season, Brady will continue to 'decline' as well as every other player on offense no matter their age. If the OL is improved, Brady is going to be exactly as we have come to expect him to be. He will decline. He isn't doing it yet.

 

[patsfan-1982]

is Brady in decline I don't know maybe but he was 5th in the NFL in pass att with 628 and out of the 6 QB's with over 600 att only Peyton had less INT's and that's with a whole new receiving core.

so if 37 year old Brady is not as good as 32 year old Brady it still makes him a top five QB

 

[Kontradiction]

I remember Elway was in decline his last two seasons....how'd THAT work out for the Broncos...?

Are you suggesting that the Pats should cheat the salary cap?

 

[letekro]

The interior OL sucked. It sucked worse than it has in a very long time. The run blocking was excellent. The Pass blocking was an absolute embarrassment. The injuries the Patriots suffered paled in comparison to Ryan Wendell, Dan Connelly and to a lesser extent Logan Mankins consistently bad play on obvious passing downs. If the OL is the same this season, Brady will continue to 'decline' as well as every other player on offense no matter their age. If the OL is improved, Brady is going to be exactly as we have come to expect him to be. He will decline. He isn't doing it yet.

Most Qbs don't have a perfect pocket on every down. It is a weakness of BRADY that he cannot move out of the way of an inside rush and that he needs to take a full lunge forward to be accurate. He does many things very well, but he is not perfect. It is OK to say that, rather than complain constantly that he is not surrounded by All-Pros at every position.

 

[patsfan13]

Brady injured his throwing hand early last season, in pics after the season he had his hand wrapped, and injured throwing hand will affect accuracy.

He will of course decline at some point. But he still has the arm strength to throw the ling ball we will see this year presuming he is healthy whether he is in serious decline or still plateauing at a high level.

 

[upstater1]

Brady missed Dobson on a lot of deep throws.

Couldn't disagree more with this.

Dobson has poor tracking abilities. Lots of balls to him are perfectly thrown. But Dobson doesn't sprint to the ball, he goes into high gear when it's too late. Does not do a good job getting under the ball. You could see this constantly when he's running at not quite full speed then turns it on in the final 5-10 yards only to miss the ball on the end of his fingertips.

 

[Joker]

Are you suggesting that the Pats should cheat the salary cap?

why not? it's not like our image could get any worse in the eyes of troglodytic fanbases like the Rats anyway...I say take the red hot poker and stick it right in their eyes...

 

[All22PatsFan]

Couldn't disagree more with this.

Dobson has poor tracking abilities. Lots of balls to him are perfectly thrown. But Dobson doesn't sprint to the ball, he goes into high gear when it's too late. Does not do a good job getting under the ball. You could see this constantly when he's running at not quite full speed then turns it on in the final 5-10 yards only to miss the ball on the end of his fingertips.

I'm not saying Brady is declining, but watch the videos Dobson is wide open deep and Brady couldn't hit him him. On the top of my head he had Dobson wide open deep in both Jets games, in the Bucs game Dobson had a good yard of separation and Brady underthrew him still forcing a DPI though . It has nothing to do with what you are saying.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYkoKgX2Zz0
2:22, 4:33

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0MYu3CUQlMQ&list=UUSy2yfJBTkv-k1NK6toF91Q
0:10

 

[Mike the Brit]

Interesting thread. Corresponds to the eye test. Deep ball accuracy and touch passes curled over the defender have never been TB's great strength and last year that was a notable weakness.

But ... his decision making and power on relatively short throws/seam routes are still outstanding. As witness how well he connected with JE and (when he was available) the Gronk.

Moreover ... as a quarterback gets older, he can't move around so well. That's apparent. But he CAN be a coach on the field. And that loads things in favour of the no-huddle/hurry-up. Clearly, his inexperienced receivers didn't let the Patriots make use of that as much as they had in previous years. With an extra year in the system and (let's hope) a healthy Amendola and Gronk, who knows ...

Bottom line. Yes, the weaknesses pointed out in the article are there. But are they sufficient not to be confident that TB can take the team all the way in '14? No, no and NO!

 

[Danger Zone]

As an enthusiast of football but just a fan, this is how I judge things.

1. When I see a receiver slow down, speed up and otherwise change speeds before missing a pass, I blame the receiver, not the quarterback (most of the time).

2. If a receiver seems to be running consistently at one speed and the pass misses, I tend to blame the quarterback unless he was being hit.

3. Any indecision about either, and I tend to blame the rookie receiver more than I do the GOAT quarterback -even if that GOAT quarterback is fallible and logic dictates he should be getting longer in the tooth.


On throws like to the one that Welker dropped in the Superbowl, I'm at a bit of a loss. If Welker had looked for the ball over the other shoulder, it would have been a thing of beauty.. as it was, it still hit him in the hands and for that I ultimately blame him. But maybe Brady made the mistake of which shoulder he threw to.

I'm just not experienced enough to dissect the nuances of which shoulder Welker should have expected the ball. It makes "logical" sense it would have been the shoulder opposite the defender.

But what do I know?