Facts. Not junk: No 9-7 team has ever won a Super Bowl.

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Yards per point is the worst metric ever invented.

No. It is the second.

 

[JJDChE]

You have NO idea what you are talking about.

Team A's ypp would be 20.0
Team B's ypp would be 17.5

For defenses it's reversed. Higher the number, better the defense. You are completely wrong.

YPP says team A is the better defense.

This is why Patriots is the better defense and anyone who's kept up with it would NOT be at all surprised to see the team ranked #2 in defense efficiency do what they did to the Ravens and so many other teams this year. They allow the fewest points and most yards. Which simply means the force they STOP the other teams and force them into needing more possessions, more yards, more drives to score a point against them. This is what makes the appear like a bad defense when in fact they are one of the best in the league.

Yards per point is the #1 best predictor of winning in football and has been for 100 years. Not even point differential does a better job. It's ******ed to argue it because it measures a team's ability to freaking outscore and outexecute.

It's not something that's up for debate. Whoever outscores WINS!!! It has its flaws, nothing is perfect but there is nothing better currently. Not even DVOA.

The fact that the Patriots ranked second in YPP is the smoking gun proving it is an absurd, useless stat.

I bet you could invent a stat, with some digging, that would show that Joe Flacco is 'better' than Tom Brady. It would be just as silly as YPP.

EDIT: Calling yards/point 'defensive efficiency' is an unbelievably bad joke.

 

[PatriotSeven]

The Falcons didn't score an offensive point in that Giant game, so I don't understand your number. They also didn't put the ball on the ground or throw a bad pick. They tried to gain short yardage on 4th down and got dominated physically three times. Yards per point certainly look bad when you dont kick field goals. Doesn't mean that you weren't dominated in the game.

Which is exactly why they were so inefficient. It measures their scoring offense, which includes any score whatsoever but only the offense's yards so in their case it was even worse then it looks. It should be a 0. No NFL team has a scoring ability of 0. They raked up 247 yards and 0 points.

It's the equivalent of you working for a week and not getting paid because you did a bad job but you find 2 dollars on your way home.

Even we could beat Atlanta when Atlanta has an scoring ability rating of 0. In fact you don't need an offense, when their offense has a scoring ability rating of 0. And the Giants didn't.

That's not beating a team. The Giants have done NOTHING to prove they have the type of defense that can regularly hold teams to under 10 points. It should be obvious what happened.

The Patriots have consistently proven they have the type of defense needed in the NFL to blow out NFL teams. They did it regularly. You cannot blow out a football team without your defense stopping them.

To have a blowout you either need a good defense and offense, or teams self imploding. And the Giants allow more points per game than the Patriots.

Since the playoffs began they have gotten worse, and Patriots better. Patriots have now improved to 11th overall for the season in points allowed and Giants have now dropped to 21st.


Right now, the Giants are ranked 21st in freaking points allowed. What exactly is so great about that? And they are 22nd in yards and 14th in efficiency. They suck. Any way you look at them. Their defense sucks.

Sorry, but they are sorry. Nothing to fear.

 

[Ron Sellers]

Actually yards per point is a very valuable tool used extensively by almost all professional handicappers.

The mainstream media doesn't talk about it because they either (a) are unaware of it, or (b) know about it but don't mention it because their bread and butter, the casual fan, would never be able to get a handle on it and understand it.

Just because it is a stat that doesn't get repeated on an hourly basis the way something such as team rankings based on total yardage does, for example, that does not make it a meaningless or useless statistic.

 

[PatriotSeven]

The fact that the Patriots ranked second in YPP is the smoking gun proving it is an absurd, useless stat.

I bet you could invent a stat, with some digging, that would show that Joe Flacco is 'better' than Tom Brady. It would be just as silly as YPP.

EDIT: Calling yards/point 'defensive efficiency' is an unbelievably bad joke.

This is something that's proven by winning. That is better than anything else you can look at. That's actually the point. You can't find a stat that does this better.

This is the one that does that best. Yards create illusions. Points are not always reliable. This correlates best to winning.

But please if you have evidence of anything else that does this job better let me know.

PS: Of course it's efficiency. Efficiency is defined by results/work. That's what yards per point is in football.. Points = results. Work = yards. results/work = efficiency. Scoring ability.

 

[hlywoodjp]

Just change the numbers.

Defense A gives up 10 points and 200 yards.
Defense B gives up 10 points and 300 yards.

Defense B is the "more efficient" defense. Why?

The Patriots give up a ton of long drives that end in turnovers or field goals. (No need to get into a garbage time, trading points for time argument here) You have decided that that means that they are more efficient then a defense that gives up less yards, but not a lot less points. (but still fewer points, as the Patriots are mediocre in points scored but the 2nd most efficient defense in your eyes)

I would argue that all of these yards and long drives allowed by the defense could hurt the patriots offense if they came in non garbage time. The more chances Brady gets with the ball the better. You have somehow turned this into a positive for the Patriots defense, which is strange.

 

[NSPF]

This is something that's proven by winning. That is better than anything else you can look at. That's actually the point. You can't find a stat that does this better.

This is the one that does that best. Yards create illusions. Points are not always reliable. This correlates best to winning.

But please if you have evidence of anything else that does this job better let me know.

Again, the 49ers were the #1 defense and #2 offense in ypp, and Green Bay was #1 offense and #5 defense. The Giants beat both of them. Yes, it's a valuable stat that shows a high correlation with winning, but no, it doesn't change the fact that this game could easily go either way, and is not a reason to think that the Pats will run away with it, as two elite NFC teams learned.

 

[Wolfpack]

IMHO, the only stat along these lines that matters is points per possession. In every game there are going to be either an equal number of possessions or one team would have no more than 1 extra possession (or possibly 2 in an overtime game but that would still be extremely rare). For the sake of statistical consistency, if the receiving team turned the ball over on a kickoff or punt, or if they failed to recover an onside kick, that would still be considered a "possession."

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

If people want to argue stats and numbers, why not look at all the most important one together?

History:
-Two 9-7 teams have made the Super Bowl before. Both lost the Super Bowl.
-Two teams have won the the AFC Championship game with a - turnover margin. They both won the Super Bowl.
Advantage: Patriots

Winning records:
-Patriots are 15-3
-NY Giants are 12-7
Advantage: Patriots

Strength of schedule:
Advantage: Giants(not sure of the ranking but they clearly have it)

Turnovers:
-The Patriots finished the season with a +0.8 turnover margin per game.
-The Giants finished the season with +0.6 turnover margin per game.
Advantage: Patriots

Defensive yards allowed:

Defense:
-NY Giants defense finished 22nd in yards allowed per drive(31.78ypd)
-Patriots Defense finished 32nd in yards allowed per drive(37.49ypd)
Difference: 5.71 yards
Advantage: Giants


Special teams:
-Patriots special teams defense finished 2nd in defending starting field position(24.06 yard line)
-NY Giants special teams defense finished 19th in defending starting field position(28.56 yard line)
Difference: 4.5 yards
Advantage: Patriots

True Total defense(yards):
Giants: 60.34 yards allowed per drive
Patriots: 61.55 yards allowed per drive.
Net Difference: 1.21 yards per drive. THIS is what ******s go crazy over?
Advantage: Giants

Offensive yards allowed:

Offense:
-Patriots offense finished 2nd in yards per drive(39.53 ypd)
-NY Giants offense finished 8th in yards per drive(32.95ypd)
Difference: 6.58 yards per drive
Advantage: Patriots

Special Teams offense:
-Patriots special teams offense finished 9th in starting field position(28.94ypd)
-Ny Giants special teams offense finished 29th in starting field position(25.97ypd)
Difference: 2.97 yards per drive
Advantage: Patriots

True TOTAL offense(yards):
-Patriots: 68.47 yards per drive
-Giants: 58.92 yards per drive
Difference: 9.55 yard per drive.
Advantage: Patriots


Net drive stats rankings(yards)(offense-defense):
-Patriots: 10th
-Giants: 12th
Advantage: Patriots


Points.

Defense:
-Ny Giants defense finished 24th in points per drive allowed.
-Patriots defense finished 21st in points per drive allowed
Advantage: Patriots

Offense:
-Patriots offense finished 3rd in points per drive
-Ny Giants offense finished 9th in points per drive
Advantage: Patriots

Total Point differential:
-The Patriots finished the season with a + 171 point differential.
-The Giants finished the season with a -6 point differential.
Difference: (LOL)
Advantage: Patriots


QB's NFL passer rating:
-Tom Brady has a 105.8 QB passer rating, including playoffs in 2011.
-Eli Manning has 1031. QB passer rating, including playoffs in 2011.
Advantage: Patriots


Efficiency: "Yards per point is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL"
-Patriots offense finished 4th in OVERALL scoring ability(yards per point)
-NY Giants finished 16th in OVERALL scoring ability(yards per point)
Advantage: Patriots

-Patriots defense finished 2nd in OVERALL defense stopping ability(yards per point)
-Ny Giants defense finished 15th in OVERALL defense stopping ability(ypp allowed)
Advantage: Patriots

LOL Patriots defense owns you! You just don't know it.

The Patriots defense is more efficient in stopping opponents and has been all year compared to the Patriots offense is in scoring on opponents.

Let me repeat this because people just read this and it kind of goes in one ear and out the other: After 16 regular season games, the Patriots defense is more efficient in doing their job than the Patriots offense is in doing theirs.

Ask yourself, how efficient and how good at executing are the Patriots offensively? Well...whatever you think or imagine, realize that defensively they are BETTER than that. Ok? These are the facts after 16 regular season games and it continued into the playoffs.

If you want to worry about something, the Patriots defense isn't even the part of the team you should worry about. The Patriots weakest link is ironically the offense, as hard as that might be to believe, and the Giants aren't nowhere near the same level.

Playoffs-Offensive Efficiency and Win/Loss correlations for 2011:
7-3 Based on regular season rankings.
10-0 Based on playoff records rankings.
Advantage: Patriots.

There are only two category the Giants have the upper hand:

-Their actual defense allow 6 less yards per drive(not even a first down) but not their real total defense(you know the full freaking thing) because their special teams defense sucks and give up almost 5 extra yards per drive compared to the Patriots special teams defense. They have a [B net 1 yard[/b] advantage when it's all said and done. This is also the least important category out of everything I listed when it comes to winning a football game.

-the other is strength of opponents. They faced better competition. This is a second is a valid argument.

There is only one category the Giants really match up: Quarterbacks. Eli Manning proved he is an elite quarterback and deserves much respect. But other than that, the rest of the parts of the teams, they are not even close in the categories that actually freaking matter like points and scoring ability.

sources:
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opp Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com
NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com
2011 NFL Regular Season Divisional Standings - National Football League - ESPN
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 DRIVE STATS

Have fun!

PS: Giants fans...Start Tebowing!

So you are saying we have a chance?

 

[PatriotSeven]

Just change the numbers.

Defense A gives up 10 points and 200 yards.
Defense B gives up 10 points and 300 yards.

Defense B is the "more efficient" defense. Why?

The Patriots give up a ton of long drives that end in turnovers or field goals. (No need to get into a garbage time, trading points for time argument here) You have decided that that means that they are more efficient then a defense that gives up less yards, but not a lot less points. (but still fewer points, as the Patriots are mediocre in points scored but the 2nd most efficient defense in your eyes)

I would argue that all of these yards and long drives allowed by the defense could hurt the patriots offense if they came in non garbage time. The more chances Brady gets with the ball the better. You have somehow turned this into a positive for the Patriots defense, which is strange.

Here's why.

What is worse to an offense?

A 3 and out that only required 3 tries and you get 0 points?
A 95 yard drive that require 15 plays and you still get 0 points?

Think about it.

Not only does it require more energy. Not only does it carry a higher risk of injury. Not only did you give away your playbook. But what is more deflating to a football team than driving down 95 yards and getting 0 points?

That's why Team B's defense is better. Team A stops you from scoring. Team B forces you to expend all your energy, and STILL stops you from scoring.

This is what the Patriots do. They have done it all year long. They did it against Baltimore last night. Baltimore drove .Aaaaall the way down field, Joe hit his receiver in the endzone...and the Patriots defender slapped the ball right out of his hands.

It just doesn't really get much worse than that. It goes above and beyond a defense who simply stops you. This is a defense who also TORTURES you. They are like a cat with a mouse.

I'd rather get shot in the head then get cut up into pieces by a butter knife, wouldn't you?

 

[PatsGator]

Everyone is throwing around Patriots defensive stats but they are irrelevant. The current defense is a much different defense than the one we fielded most of the year.

All I'm interested in "stats-wise" are the playoff stats, and by that measure the Pats' defense is a different defense.

They looked pretty sharp against that "pathetic" Denver offense that had just beat the "incredible" Pittsburgh defense a week earlier.

And they didn't look all that bad yesterday against a QB who was threading the needle like he's never done before. Just the fact that he HAD TO thread the needle all day shows how tight the coverage was. And we also did pretty well against their "all-world" running back.

If Eli and the Giants are expecting to face the "regular season" New England defense, they are going to be in for an epic surprise.

 

[PatriotSeven]

So you are saying we have a chance?

Just a slim shot Unfortunately it seems the general public are CONVINCED the 1 extra yard our defense gives up per drive will wipe out all those other advantages because the Giants are "hot". And who can argue with that?

I wish the Patriots would stop winning in the regular season so we can "get hot" in the playoffs too and be on TV all the time!

Shoot for 8-8 next year? What do you think?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Like I said in another thread, they were 9-7 for a reason. Not taking anything from the Giants because they are hot but overall I think we're playing better ball right now, and have a higher ceiling than them.

In these playoffs we are -3 in the turnover differential (forced 2 turnovers, committed 5 turnovers). We lost the turnover battle in each game on the way to the SB yet still won both games, one game was over before halftime. No gamebreaking plays from the ST return teams. I think that puts into perspective just how well the team is performing right now to overcome that differential, even though the last one was a bit shaky. During the season we were 3rd best in TO differential at +17 so we're obviously far below our average.

In these playoffs the Giants are +5 in turnover differential (6 forced, 1 committed). Over the entire regular season they were +7 so they are way above their average coming into this game. They did beat the Packers who are probably better than anybody we've beaten, but again alot of unforced drops/misfires by Rodgers and co. in that game.

I doubt this turnover trend continues in the next game given how well we have been in that department since 3 games into the 2010 season. Another reason to feel confident. Also as I alluded to earlier, Edelman is due to bust one loose and I believe he will. The guy is very dangerous and underrated as a PR.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Not only that but even if you actually watch and analyze the biggest mistakes of each team you will see a huge difference.

-Did the Giants defense do anything incredible on the play where the ball scraped the punt returner's knee or was that fluke play? Was that a SOLID play by the defense?
-Did the Giants defense do anything incredible to force the second fumble by the same shaky punt returner in over time?
-Did Eli throw an amazingly well placed ball and avoided the interception when the 49ers defenders collided when they BOTH went for the first interception, knocking the other out of the game?
-What about the second time the exact same thing happened?

Is that what happened in the Pats-Ravens game?
-Was Brady's pass that bad or did that defensive player make a huge play knocking it back in the air to his own man?
-Was Sterling Moore's play a fluke play and was that a dropped pass or was it GOOD defense by the Patriots?

That's what I look at. There is NOTHING impressive about that ball scraping the knee of the 49ers player to give the Giants the ball. That's what kept the Giants in the game. Luck. This Patriots defense don't knock each other out in the same game going for the interception...TWICE! They don't play that silly.

I'm looking in the quality of the playmaking. I see quality play making when the Patriots play. I see them executing the plays as they are supposed to execute when they get their opportunities. I see Brady coming up short on that TD and then doing it AGAIN and getting it right by putting in the extra effort and executing. Didn't Brady in fact score the winning points?

-Would the FG have won the Ravens the game?
-At any point in the game did the Patriots offense ever have a chance to put the game away with a FG and failed on 5 consecutive offensive possessions?

The Patriots could only put the game away by scoring another touchdown or preserve the 3. That was it. Scoring another FG would have done nothing in the 4th quarter. They still had to prevent a touchdown from being scored. That was the #1 goal. Prevent a touchdown. FG meant they go to OT in worse case scenario.

Giants - 49ers game was clearly a big mess while Pats-Ravens game was two teams playing high level NFL football and making huge plays on both sides of the ball. There was nothing impressive about the Giants win last night. Was it exciting? yeah. Was it heart pumping? Sure. But it wasn't a definitive win. It didn't prove anything other than the fact Eli Manning is a damn good QB with a lot of guts.

But their weakest links are much worse than the Patriots weakest links and that much was obvious last night. I saw Cruz missing routes. I saw Eli making terrible passes that would be blown the game wide open for them. I saw the 49ers able to gash them for huge plays. I saw both special teams sucking.

If the Giants don't clean up their game, they're in trouble. I hope to God the game is tied and all the Pats need to win it is a FG and they get 5 offensive possessions to try to put up a FG...please let that happen Because if we can't get 3 points to put the game away on 5 offensive possessions we don't deserve to win the Super Bowl.

They needed 5 freaking possessions to kick a freaking FG!

Let's ask Vince...Vince...are you scared of that offense and master Eli?

 

[hlywoodjp]

I would take a three and out with the punt returned to the 40 over the ball turned over at the 15, 10 out of 10 times. I think you need to account for how valuable field position is for most teams that aren't as freakishly good on offense as the Patriots.

I suppose the issue also revolves around how you view turnovers, since they greatly alter YPP in some situations. I know that turnovers created can fluctuate pretty wildly from year to year for defenses. How can this number fluctuate so wildly if the team itself remains relatively intact (I believe the 2009 vs 2010 Saints were a good example) Did the Saints just forget how to create turnovers in 2010? Did they stop practicing it? I for one, have no idea how that will go in the Super Bowl. The Patriots have been relatively sloppy with the ball the last two weeks.

Even if we take YPP at face value, in the last five games the Giants have a huge 23 YPP on defense, playing against good offenses. You can try to explain it away by saying those teams just stunk when they played them, but I don't think you are being fair. The Patriots have a 18.5 YPP and that is playing Tebow twice, the Dolphins and the Bills. Seems like the Giants have been superior on defense in the recent past. Certainly doesn't mean the game isn't a 50/50 pick em, but I don't think you can keep calling the Giants defense below average based on the recent past of your own statistic.

BTW Football Outsider is well aware of YPP and has an old write up of DVOA vs Yards Per point if you are really bored.
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | DVOA vs. Yards Per Point

 

[VrabelJr]

Two teams with 9-7 records making the Super Bowl and losing isn't a very convincing sample size. As cliche as it is, it's true: Once you make it to the big dance all the records go out the window. That stuff is just to give the mediots a job for two weeks.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Ok, this YPP is kind of cool:

So I was intrigued by this Yards Per Point stat/ranking and decided to look at the YPP team ranking for the Superbowl Matchups since '95. Winning team is on the left with the YPP team ranking following.

2010: GB 5.8, Pitts 4.4
2009: NO 4.1, IND 3.7
2008: Pitts 2.6, ARI -1.2
2007: NYG -0.3, NEP 5.6
2006: IND: 0.56, 6.25
2005: Pitt 4.4, SEA 3.7
2004: NEP 5, PHI 5
2003: NEP 5.1, CAR 0.7
2002: TAM 5.9, OAK 1.47
2001: NEP 6.5, STL 3.1
2000: BAL 8.9, NYG 3.1
1999: STL 5.2, TEN 1.69
1998: DEN 3.8, ALT 4.0
1997: DEN 3.9, GB 3.8
1996: GB 7.7, NEP 4.1
1995: DAL 3.9, PITT -0.3

YPP Team Rating is 12-3-1 when predicting the Superbowl matchup winner based on regular season stats.

Note: Yards per point team rating is calculated by subtracting the offensive PPG from the defensive PPG.

I was skeptical about this stat, but 12-3-1 on predictions is pretty damned impressive....

This year the Pats are a 5.9 while the Giants are a -0.5. 12-3-1. Come on odds!

 

[Satchboogie3]

Here's why.

What is worse to an offense?

A 3 and out that only required 3 tries and you get 0 points?
A 95 yard drive that require 15 plays and you still get 0 points?

Think about it.

Not only does it require more energy. Not only does it carry a higher risk of injury. Not only did you give away your playbook. But what is more deflating to a football team than driving down 95 yards and getting 0 points?

That's why Team B's defense is better. Team A stops you from scoring. Team B forces you to expend all your energy, and STILL stops you from scoring.

This is what the Patriots do. They have done it all year long. They did it against Baltimore last night. Baltimore drove .Aaaaall the way down field, Joe hit his receiver in the endzone...and the Patriots defender slapped the ball right out of his hands.

It just doesn't really get much worse than that. It goes above and beyond a defense who simply stops you. This is a defense who also TORTURES you. They are like a cat with a mouse.

I'd rather get shot in the head then get cut up into pieces by a butter knife, wouldn't you?

It can be even simpler than that. The more plays needed to score, the more time is consumed. Thus, the more plays you force your opponent to take to score, the less time they have to accumulate points. Combine that with a quick strike offense and you simply can't keep up. It's simple yet brilliant.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Ok, this YPP is kind of cool:

So I was intrigued by this Yards Per Point stat/ranking and decided to look at the YPP team ranking for the Superbowl Matchups since '95. Winning team is on the left with the YPP team ranking following.

2010: GB 5.8, Pitts 4.4
2009: NO 4.1, IND 3.7
2008: Pitts 2.6, ARI -1.2
2007: NYG -0.3, NEP 5.6
2006: IND: 0.56, 6.25
2005: Pitt 4.4, SEA 3.7
2004: NEP 5, PHI 5
2003: NEP 5.1, CAR 0.7
2002: TAM 5.9, OAK 1.47
2001: NEP 6.5, STL 3.1
2000: BAL 8.9, NYG 3.1
1999: STL 5.2, TEN 1.69
1998: DEN 3.8, ALT 4.0
1997: DEN 3.9, GB 3.8
1996: GB 7.7, NEP 4.1
1995: DAL 3.9, PITT -0.3

YPP Team Rating is 12-3-1 when predicting the Superbowl matchup winner based on regular season stats.

Note: Yards per point team rating is calculated by subtracting the offensive PPG from the defensive PPG.

I was skeptical about this stat, but 12-3-1 on predictions is pretty damned impressive....

This year the Pats are a 5.9 while the Giants are a -0.5. 12-3-1. Come on odds!

Welcome to the club Defense wins Championships Vegas is laughing.

 

[tobias funke]

The Giants played badly when a number of their key players were injured/being lazy/collecting a paycheck.

The Giants played well when a number of their key players were healthy/motivated/hungry.

Considering they're at 100% health (besides the deep bone bruises that will take a week to heal courtesy of Justin Smith and Donte Whitner), I don't know if I would necessarily bet against them at this point.

All I'm saying is that two of the best teams in the NFL are going to leave it all on the field in 2 weeks. They both have experience and motivation. I swear I don't believe in God, but **** if I wasn't invoking the name of MHK last night when the ball went wide.

Facts, not junk.