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Facts. Not junk: No 9-7 team has ever won a Super Bowl.


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Regular season records don't mean sh!t. The only record that matters is the one you have in the playoffs. The Giants are 3-0 and the Pats are 2-0. This game scares the crap out of me because the Giants are the one team who has figured out the Pats and has the parts to do it, but I also believe that Brady won't let his team down in the SB.
 
Regular season records don't mean sh!t. The only record that matters is the one you have in the playoffs. The Giants are 3-0 and the Pats are 2-0. This game scares the crap out of me because the Giants are the one team who has figured out the Pats and has the parts to do it, but I also believe that Brady won't let his team down in the SB.

Be scared. I'm not scared in the least and can't wait for the beat down that's going to take place in the Super Bowl. Broncos-Patriots part 3 coming up:D

Remember when Tampa Bay faced the Oakland Raiders in 2003? This is what this Super Bowl is going to be like.
 
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And you can spew yards stats all day long and it's never going to account for anything other than yards.

Points dude. POINTS. Are you hard headed? The Giants allow more points, both per drive and per game.

Weighted DVOA is not only a yard stat. It takes into account points, turnovers, location of turnovers, etc.
 
And you can spew yards stats all day long and it's never going to account for anything other than yards.

Points dude. POINTS. Are you hard headed? The Giants allow more points, both per drive and per game. They rank the actual defense, not total defense, IF your team had an average offense or defense.

Big difference from the reality. Yards per point is reality. What they do is a vacuum comparison.


Football Outsiders ranked Carolina a 6-9 team top 6 offensively all year long. They couldn't score if the other defense got off the field.

Thank you for demonstrating that you don't know what the hell you're talking about.
 
Weighted DVOA is not only a yard stat. It takes into account points, turnovers, location of turnovers, etc.

Defense value over AVERAGE. They measure something that is IMPOSSIBLE to exist in reality because you cannot take one side of your team and pull it away from its other working parts.

They take your offense and split it away from special teams and defense, and rank it as if it had an average special teams and defense.

They do the same with the defense.

That's why the Giants look better in certain categories. IF the Giants had an average special teams and average offense...their defense would be ranked that. IF the Patriots had an average offense and average special teams that's what their defense would be ranked.

IF. But they don't. They are top of the league in ALL 3 categories. They are not average in any of them.
 
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In real life people realize that being 9-7 doesn't exclude you from winning the Super Bowl.

This is true.

Before the Steelers no wildcard team had ever won the SB.

Up until recently no team that had resorted to kicking an onside kick had ever won a superbowl.

Records are made to be broken.
 
And you can spew yards stats all day long and it's never going to account for anything other than yards.

Points dude. POINTS. Are you hard headed? The Giants allow more points, both per drive and per game. They rank the actual defense, not total defense, IF your team had an average offense or defense.

Big difference from the reality. Yards per point is reality. What they do is a vacuum comparison.


Football Outsiders ranked Carolina a 6-9 team top 6 offensively all year long. They couldn't score if the other defense got off the field.


The Giants have allowed 13.4 ppg in the last 5 games, all against teams ranked in the top 15 in points (GB #1, ATL #7, SF #11, NYJ #13, DAL #15). Including shutting out Atlanta, who were the 7th highest scoring team in the NFL, and holding the NFL's highest scoring offense, Green Bay, to 20 (while dropping 37 on their defense similarly ranked to the Pats). They've also sacked their opponents 20 times and forced 11 turnovers in those 5 games.

Are you a really going to let their season averages dictate how you evaluate their defense?

Get up from the keyboard and watch the games. The Giants are knocking people in the dirt right now.
 
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You can keep spewing the nonsense about that "ranked 2nd" stat all you want. It's not going to make the Patriots defense the second best in the league.

BTW, if you want to play the formula/stat game, Football Outsiders had the Patriots ranked 30th in weighted defense, and 28th in both pass defense and rush defense.
I don't think in my life I've even seen so many so-called "experts" fawn over one team's defense so much and criticize another team's defense so much when the team with the supposedly "great" defense gave up 58 more points than the team with the supposedly "awful" defense.

/rant
 
I don't think in my life I've even seen so many so-called "experts" fawn over one team's defense so much and criticize another team's defense so much when the team with the supposedly "great" defense gave up 58 more points than the team with the supposedly "awful" defense.

/rant

Where in this thread did I say the Giants have a great defense? Oh, right, I didn't and you're just trolling again.


It's sad how obvious you are.
 
Where in this thread did I say the Giants have a great defense? Oh, right, I didn't and you're just trolling again.


It's sad how obvious you are.
Actually my comment was meant to criticize Football Outsiders, not you. Too bad you're too paranoid and argumentative that you can't realize it.

Deus Irae's mandatory he-can't-live-without-it last word coming in 3.... 2..... 1.........
 
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The Giants have allowed 13.4 ppg in the last 5 games, all against teams ranked in the top 15 in points (GB #1, ATL #7, SF #11, NYJ #13, DAL #15). Including shutting out Atlanta, who were the 7th highest scoring team in the NFL, and holding the NFL's highest scoring offense, Green Bay, to 20 (while dropping 37 on their defense similarly ranked to the Pats). They've also sacked their opponents 20 times and forced 11 turnovers in those 5 games.

Are you a really going to let their season averages dictate how you evaluate their defense?

Get up from the keyboard and watch the games. The Giants are knocking people in the dirt right now.

Aren't you being hypocritical by doing exactly just that? I have watched every game played. It just so happens what I see, is also backed up by numbers. I also posted playoff stats, did you miss them?

The Patriots were more efficient in their 2 wins over their opponents than the Giants were. I think when I stated the more efficient offense is 10-0 in the playoffs, this year, that pretty much settles that argument. I'm not sure what other stat you can find that correlates better than 100% to winning. It's been 100% true!

I don't really care about individual, situational stats. They matter little compared to overall team rankings. I don't care and neither should you if the Giants are better in defensive line, but the Patriots are better in yards gained on 2nd down or some other meaningless comparison.

Who has been more efficient OVERALL? Who has been better in outscoring their opponents?

And the other part ....it's absolutely laughable to actually sit there and say the Giants shut down Atlanta. Atlanta's offensive efficiency rating was of 123.5 ypp for that game. The Rams, worst team in the NFL in efficiency, have an offensive efficiency rating of 23.5. Not even the best defense money can buy can do that to even an average offense. Only the team's own offense can make themselves that inefficient. Atlanta self imploded.

You can take the all the all Pro Bowl NFL defensive players in the NFL, and pit them against the Rams offense as it is, and they will not be able to force the Rams into a 123.5 efficiency rating. Only a team's own offense can do that to itself. The same goes for their two other opponents too. Green Bay and 49ers. They beat those teams, but it also took those teams beating themselves first. None of those teams even remotely resembled themselves. You cannot sit here and tell me what you saw, if you watched those games was the Giants straight up beating their opponents.

Playoffs:
Offense(lower the better):
Patriots offense have a 12.3ypp scoring efficiency rating. (good enough for #2 in the league)
Giants have 14.98ypp scoring efficiency rating. (good enough for 15th)

Defense(higher the better):
New England: 21.7ypp(good enough for #2 in the league)
Giants: 24.7ypp(good enough for #1 in the league)
By comparison in the regular sea7son:

Turnover margin:
Patriots -3
Giants + 5

1 Green Bay 11.8
2 San Francisco 13.2
4 New England 13.2
15 Giants 15.5

NE's gotten better despite a negative turnover margin. I don't think there is a word large enough to explain how absolutely incredible that is. Both teams played great defenses. But the Patriots played two teams that were + in turnover margin.

Turnover margin kills your efficiency rating. So when you are +5 and you rank average versus a team who is -3 and ranks 2nd in the league...use common sense.

NE's should have been ranked terrible in efficiency. No teams survives -3 and ranks good in efficiency. Not even GB. Nobody has done this this entire 2011 season. Not even Pittsburgh's defense can do this.

Plenty of teams have looked good against teams who beat themselves when they are +5. That's not shocking. The biggest accomplishment is what Patriots being able to play like they did against the Ravens and still come out efficient.

When they first met:
Giants: 15.0
Patriots: 21.9
Giants: +2 turnover margin.

See? That's expected. That's normal. They were +2, their offense was more efficient, thus they WON! Likewise, Patriots efficiency took a nose dive because of them being -2. 21.9 is about the equivalent of the Cleveland Browns offense. So nothing unusual about what the Giants did in their first game or in the playoffs. Teams who turnover usually end up inefficient and lose.

But what the Patriots just accomplished? That's is freaking HUGE! They have no answer for that if the Patriots played like they did against the Ravens. They are simply outclassed at this point in the season. And if things go in the Patriots favor, they will get blown out.

Statistically this tells me they cannot beat the Patriots unless the Patriots turn over the ball and they play perfect....but after what I saw yesterday...not even that might be enough to beat the Patriots anymore. That's what it comes down to.
 
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I appreciate the optimism, but face it, stats can only tell you who is more likely to win a game. Late in close game, the sample size gets very small very quick, and it hardly matters that over thousands of plays the Patriots are a little bit better, or even a lot better than the Giants. The most lopsided match-ups are usually only estimated to be a win for the better team around 80% of the time.

Also, two stats of the stats you were focusing on were yards/point and opponent yards/point. They may reveal something about a team, but I have some bad news. The 49ers were the #1 defense and #2 offense by those measures, and the Giants beat them. Green Bay was #1 and #5, and the Giants beat them. Convincingly. Even if yards/point is the most important stat in the game (which I wouldn't agree with), it's clearly not going to win the SB for us.

This game is a fairly even match, as I see it. All NFL games are. The Patriots can win. If the Patriots and Giants both operate at their normal efficiency, the Patriots WILL win. However, they were not anywhere close to being good enough over the course of the season to say that we shouldn't be scared. I think we have the advantage, but trust me, if the Pats lose this game, we'll never, ever hear the end of it, and that's why I'm nervous.
 
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Yards per point is the worst metric ever invented.
If team A allows 200 yards and 10 points and team B allows 350 yards and 20 points, by this metric team B played better defense.
It would only be valid when comparing teams that allowed similar amounts of points or yards, and thereby makes itself useless.
 
Aren't you being hypocritical by doing exactly just that? I have watched every game played. It just so happens what I see, is also backed up by numbers. I also posted playoff stats, did you miss them?

The Patriots were more efficient in their 2 wins over their opponents than the Giants were. I think when I stated the more efficient offense is 10-0 in the playoffs, this year, that pretty much settles that argument. I'm not sure what other stat you can find that correlates better than 100% to winning. It's been 100% true!

I don't really care about individual, situational stats. They matter little compared to overall team rankings. I don't care and neither should you if the Giants are better in defensive line, but the Patriots are better in yards gained on 2nd down or some other meaningless comparison.

Who has been more efficient OVERALL? Who has been better in outscoring their opponents?

And the other part ....it's absolutely laughable to actually sit there and say the Giants shut down Atlanta. Atlanta's offensive efficiency rating was of 123.5 ypp for that game. The Rams, worst team in the NFL in efficiency, have an offensive efficiency rating of 23.5. Not even the best defense money can buy can do that to even an average offense. Only the team's own offense can make themselves that inefficient. Atlanta self imploded.

You can take the all the all Pro Bowl NFL defensive players in the NFL, and pit them against the Rams offense as it is, and they will not be able to force the Rams into a 123.5 efficiency rating. Only a team's own offense can do that to itself. The same goes for their two other opponents too. Green Bay and 49ers. They beat those teams, but it also took those teams beating themselves first. None of those teams even remotely resembled themselves. You cannot sit here and tell me what you saw, if you watched those games was the Giants straight up beating their opponents.

Playoffs:
Offense(lower the better):
Patriots offense have a 12.3ypp scoring efficiency rating. (good enough for #2 in the league)
Giants have 14.98ypp scoring efficiency rating. (good enough for 15th)

Defense(higher the better):
New England: 21.7ypp(good enough for #2 in the league)
Giants: 24.7ypp(good enough for #1 in the league)
By comparison in the regular sea7son:

Turnover margin:
Patriots -3
Giants + 5

1 Green Bay 11.8
2 San Francisco 13.2
4 New England 13.2
15 Giants 15.5

NE's gotten better despite a negative turnover margin. I don't think there is a word large enough to explain how absolutely incredible that is. Both teams played great defenses. But the Patriots played two teams that were + in turnover margin.

Turnover margin kills your efficiency rating. So when you are +5 and you rank average versus a team who is -3 and ranks 2nd in the league...use common sense.

NE's should have been ranked terrible in efficiency. No teams survives -3 and ranks good in efficiency. Not even GB. Nobody has done this this entire 2011 season. Not even Pittsburgh's defense can do this.

Plenty of teams have looked good against teams who beat themselves when they are +5. That's not shocking. The biggest accomplishment is what Patriots being able to play like they did against the Ravens and still come out efficient.

When they first met:
Giants: 15.0
Patriots: 21.9
Giants: +2 turnover margin.

See? That's expected. That's normal. They were +2, their offense was more efficient, thus they WON! Likewise, Patriots efficiency took a nose dive because of them being -2. 21.9 is about the equivalent of the Cleveland Browns offense. So nothing unusual about what the Giants did in their first game or in the playoffs. Teams who turnover usually end up inefficient and lose.

But what the Patriots just accomplished? That's is freaking HUGE! They have no answer for that if the Patriots played like they did against the Ravens. They are simply outclassed at this point in the season. And if things go in the Patriots favor, they will get blown out.

Statistically this tells me they cannot beat the Patriots unless the Patriots turn over the ball and they play perfect....but after what I saw yesterday...not even that might be enough to beat the Patriots anymore. That's what it comes down to.

The Falcons didn't score an offensive point in that Giant game, so I don't understand your number. They also didn't put the ball on the ground or throw a bad pick. They tried to gain short yardage on 4th down and got dominated physically three times. Yards per point certainly look bad when you dont kick field goals. Doesn't mean that you weren't dominated in the game.
 
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Yards per point is the worst metric ever invented.
If team A allows 200 yards and 10 points and team B allows 350 yards and 20 points, by this metric team B played better defense.
It would only be valid when comparing teams that allowed similar amounts of points or yards, and thereby makes itself useless.

You have NO idea what you are talking about.

Team A's ypp would be 20.0
Team B's ypp would be 17.5

For defenses it's reversed. Higher the number, better the defense. You are completely wrong.

YPP says team A is the better defense.

This is why Patriots is the better defense and anyone who's kept up with it would NOT be at all surprised to see the team ranked #2 in defense efficiency do what they did to the Ravens and so many other teams this year. They allow the fewest points and most yards. Which simply means the force they STOP the other teams and force them into needing more possessions, more yards, more drives to score a point against them. This is what makes the appear like a bad defense when in fact they are one of the best in the league.

Yards per point is the #1 best predictor of winning in football and has been for 100 years. Not even point differential does a better job. It's ******ed to argue it because it measures a team's ability to freaking outscore and outexecute.

It's not something that's up for debate. Whoever outscores WINS!!! It has its flaws, nothing is perfect but there is nothing better currently. Not even DVOA.
 
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