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Facts. Not junk: No 9-7 team has ever won a Super Bowl.

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PatriotSeven, Jan 23, 2012.

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  1. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

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    If people want to argue stats and numbers, why not look at all the most important one together?

    History:
    -Two 9-7 teams have made the Super Bowl before. Both lost the Super Bowl.
    -Two teams have won the the AFC Championship game with a - turnover margin. They both won the Super Bowl.
    Advantage: Patriots

    Winning records:
    -Patriots are 15-3
    -NY Giants are 12-7
    Advantage: Patriots

    Strength of schedule:
    Advantage: Giants(not sure of the ranking but they clearly have it)

    Turnovers:
    -The Patriots finished the season with a +0.8 turnover margin per game.
    -The Giants finished the season with +0.6 turnover margin per game.
    Advantage: Patriots

    Defensive yards allowed:

    Defense:
    -NY Giants defense finished 22nd in yards allowed per drive(31.78ypd)
    -Patriots Defense finished 32nd in yards allowed per drive(37.49ypd)
    Difference: 5.71 yards
    Advantage: Giants


    Special teams:
    -Patriots special teams defense finished 2nd in defending starting field position(24.06 yard line)
    -NY Giants special teams defense finished 19th in defending starting field position(28.56 yard line)
    Difference: 4.5 yards
    Advantage: Patriots

    True Total defense(yards):
    Giants: 60.34 yards allowed per drive
    Patriots: 61.55 yards allowed per drive.
    Net Difference: 1.21 yards per drive. THIS is what retards go crazy over?
    Advantage: Giants

    Offensive yards allowed:

    Offense:
    -Patriots offense finished 2nd in yards per drive(39.53 ypd)
    -NY Giants offense finished 8th in yards per drive(32.95ypd)
    Difference: 6.58 yards per drive
    Advantage: Patriots

    Special Teams offense:
    -Patriots special teams offense finished 9th in starting field position(28.94ypd)
    -Ny Giants special teams offense finished 29th in starting field position(25.97ypd)
    Difference: 2.97 yards per drive
    Advantage: Patriots

    True TOTAL offense(yards):
    -Patriots: 68.47 yards per drive
    -Giants: 58.92 yards per drive
    Difference: 9.55 yard per drive.
    Advantage: Patriots


    Net drive stats rankings(yards)(offense-defense):
    -Patriots: 10th
    -Giants: 12th
    Advantage: Patriots


    Points.

    Defense:
    -Ny Giants defense finished 24th in points per drive allowed.
    -Patriots defense finished 21st in points per drive allowed
    Advantage: Patriots

    Offense:
    -Patriots offense finished 3rd in points per drive
    -Ny Giants offense finished 9th in points per drive
    Advantage: Patriots

    Total Point differential:
    -The Patriots finished the season with a + 171 point differential.
    -The Giants finished the season with a -6 point differential.
    Difference: (LOL:D)
    Advantage: Patriots


    QB's NFL passer rating:
    -Tom Brady has a 105.8 QB passer rating, including playoffs in 2011.
    -Eli Manning has 1031. QB passer rating, including playoffs in 2011.
    Advantage: Patriots


    Efficiency: "Yards per point is the single biggest predictor of victory in the NFL"
    -Patriots offense finished 4th in OVERALL scoring ability(yards per point)
    -NY Giants finished 16th in OVERALL scoring ability(yards per point)
    Advantage: Patriots

    -Patriots defense finished 2nd in OVERALL defense stopping ability(yards per point)
    -Ny Giants defense finished 15th in OVERALL defense stopping ability(ypp allowed)
    Advantage: Patriots

    LOL:D Patriots defense owns you! You just don't know it.

    The Patriots defense is more efficient in stopping opponents and has been all year compared to the Patriots offense is in scoring on opponents.

    Let me repeat this because people just read this and it kind of goes in one ear and out the other: After 16 regular season games, the Patriots defense is more efficient in doing their job than the Patriots offense is in doing theirs.

    Ask yourself, how efficient and how good at executing are the Patriots offensively? Well...whatever you think or imagine, realize that defensively they are BETTER than that. Ok? These are the facts after 16 regular season games and it continued into the playoffs.

    If you want to worry about something, the Patriots defense isn't even the part of the team you should worry about. The Patriots weakest link is ironically the offense, as hard as that might be to believe, and the Giants aren't nowhere near the same level.

    Playoffs-Offensive Efficiency and Win/Loss correlations for 2011:
    7-3 Based on regular season rankings.
    10-0 Based on playoff records rankings.
    Advantage: Patriots.

    There are only two category the Giants have the upper hand:

    -Their actual defense allow 6 less yards per drive(not even a first down) but not their real total defense(you know the full freaking thing) because their special teams defense sucks and give up almost 5 extra yards per drive compared to the Patriots special teams defense. They have a [B net 1 yard[/b] advantage when it's all said and done. This is also the least important category out of everything I listed when it comes to winning a football game.

    -the other is strength of opponents. They faced better competition. This is a second is a valid argument.

    There is only one category the Giants really match up: Quarterbacks. Eli Manning proved he is an elite quarterback and deserves much respect. But other than that, the rest of the parts of the teams, they are not even close in the categories that actually freaking matter like points and scoring ability.

    sources:
    NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opp Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com
    NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Yards per Point on TeamRankings.com
    2011 NFL Regular Season Divisional Standings - National Football League - ESPN
    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2011 DRIVE STATS

    Have fun! :D

    PS: Giants fans...Start Tebowing!
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2012
  2. PatsFan24

    PatsFan24 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Hopefully it stays that way. I think though that few if any 9-7 teams had the talent this Giants team does.
     
  3. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

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    This means nothing.

    Correlation and causation are different things.

    No team with the 31st ranked defense (or lower than 25th) has won the Super Bowl. No team with a 5000 yards passer has won the Super Bowl. You could go on and on and on.

    The only thing you can take from this is figuring out how the Giants lost seven games and finding a flaw.

    I'm pretty sure that in Super Bowl 42, we just may have a few slight statistical advantages in many categories.

    The one thing that stands out: I know this Patriots is very tough mentally. They've come back from a lot of deficits. I think the Giants are mentally tough, too, but 9-7 suggests problems when the going gets tough. We'll see.
     
  4. robbomango

    robbomango In the Starting Line-Up

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    #12 Jersey

    That kind of sucks, plays up the underdog card even more. I'll stick with this number 11-7.;)
     
  5. SVN

    SVN Hall of Fame Poster

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    Agree it means nothing .But you will constantly hear only how pats have beaten just 1 team (barely) with a record above 500 and 31st rank defense .This stat wont be brought up.
     
  6. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    And no team that gave up more points in the regular season than they scored has ever made it to a Super Bowl.

    Until yesterday.
     
  7. robbomango

    robbomango In the Starting Line-Up

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    #12 Jersey

    good point,

    lol at the 5000 passer analogy
     
  8. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

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    Well good think the Patriots defense is not ranked 32nd.

    I know you don't want to accept it because you have been brainwashed, likely beyond repair, but you see in real life....defenses are not ranked by one portion of their defense in yards category.

    In the real world the better defense is the one that's better in their ability to stop opponent from scoring points. And the Patriots are ranked 2nd in the NFL. Not 32nd. So don't worry. The 32nd worst defense won't win the Super Bowl. It will be the 2nd best defense in the NFL that will win it, the Patriots;)

    Certainly NOT the 15th, which is what the Giants are.

    PS: That's why you should probably read the post before responding to it, or you would know this.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2012
  9. robbomango

    robbomango In the Starting Line-Up

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    #12 Jersey

    While were on it no QB after 2 playoffs game's with 48 completions 70 attempts 68.6% 6TDS 3INTs QBR of 105.8 has gone on to win the Super Bowl. :cool:
     
  10. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    In real life people realize that being 9-7 doesn't exclude you from winning the Super Bowl.
     
  11. PatsFan24

    PatsFan24 In the Starting Line-Up

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    This is all a bunch to do about nothing. The team that plays better will win and it will have nothing to do with how good the stats were during the season. Sometimes fans put way to much focus on stats.
     
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    You can keep spewing the nonsense about that "ranked 2nd" stat all you want. It's not going to make the Patriots defense the second best in the league.

    BTW, if you want to play the formula/stat game, Football Outsiders had the Patriots ranked 30th in weighted defense, and 28th in both pass defense and rush defense.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2012
  13. Fball

    Fball Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    It doesn't really matter; that same 9-7 team already beat the Pats, in a pretty even game.

    The Giants schedule was brutal.

    That said, they did suffer a couple of pretty bad blowouts, which is something the Patriots avoided.
     
  14. JJDChE

    JJDChE 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    What the hell are they ranked 2nd in?
     
  15. BadMoFo

    BadMoFo Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Well I guess we shouldn't even play the game then.
     
  16. MSU

    MSU Banned

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    Who cares? Worthless stat. No 18-0 team has ever won the Superbowl either. It's on par with the, "Patriots haven't beat a winning team all season" crap we heard last weak.
     
  17. Ivan

    Ivan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #75 Jersey


    I agree, although team stats can show strengths and weaknesses it all goes out the window come gametime. Both these teams have shown real weaknesses during the season but they have also showed alot of character and resilience. This is going to be a great SB match-up and we'll probably all be on our feet pacing right up until the final gun. can't wait.
     
  18. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #12 Jersey

    Peter King listed a bunch of useless stats as well. Like this is the third rematch of QBs in the SB. Bradshaw beat Starbuch twice and Aikman beat Kelly twice. The Giants won 5 straight elimination games just like 07 coming into the SB. The Giants last lost came in week 15 to the Redskins both years by the same score.

    All these things are interesting by eventually meaningless. As Bill preaches the team that executes best will win.
     
  19. goheels22002

    goheels22002 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Giants' season statistics are reassuring. But the Giants improved and grew together somehow.

    The team most similar to the NE Patriots was the Green Bay Packers - high powered offensive combined with porous defense. The Giants went into Lambeau and beat them, then came back the next week to out-slug the best defense in the league in one of the most physical games I remember..

    The Giants are very familiar with and not intimidated by the Patriots. In fact they are 2-0 in their last two meetings with the Patriots. Eli has never lost a Super Bowl and his coach was there as an assistant sharing an office with Belichick with the NY football Giants.

    Intangibles outweigh data with these Giants.

    The Giants scare the crap out of me.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2012
  20. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

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    And you can spew yards stats all day long and it's never going to account for anything other than yards.

    Points dude. POINTS. Are you hard headed? The Giants allow more points, both per drive and per game. They rank the actual defense, not total defense, IF your team had an average offense or defense.

    Big difference from the reality. Yards per point is reality. What they do is a vacuum comparison.


    Football Outsiders ranked Carolina a 6-9 team top 6 offensively all year long. They couldn't score if the other defense got off the field.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2012
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