Draft Weekend thoughts

[Miguel]

1.) The more I read about the NFL draft the more I think that all a person like me (who does not watch one college football game or pay for draft-related information) needs is to read Rich Gosselin's draft-related articles. Once again, his Top 100 list was the most accurate and his mock draft was among the most accurate.
2.) The Steelers, the defending SB champs, helped themselves a great deal. I do not think that anyone had a draft good enough to overtake the Steelers as the #1 team.
3.) I love the trade up for Chad Jackson.
4.) Given the track record of rookie wideouts and Florida wideouts, I do not expect Jackson to perform as a top #2 until the latter half of the 2007 season.
5.) Would anyone trade a 4th round pick in 2006 for a 6th round pick in 2007?? Well, the Pats used a 4th round pick in 2006 to replace Adam. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 6th round compensatory pick for the loss of Adam. Would anyone trade a 3rd round pick in 2006 for a 4th round pick in 2007???Well, the Pats used a 3rd round pick in 2006 to replace Givens. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 4th round compensatory pick for the loss of Givens. My point is that while it is great to receive compensatory picks to help offset the loss of free agents but please do not forget that the loss of free agents forces teams to then fill needs with unproven draft picks.
6.) In a conference with Brady, Manning, Palmer, and Big Ben, the Mario Williams selection makes a lot of sense to me.
7.) This draft makes reading Mrs B's TC reports very necessary.
8.) If Graham wants to be the #1 TE in a team's offense, then this year will be his last as a Patriot.
9.) Bethel Johnson is my choice for the player that will create the most posts in a "Will he make the team" thread.
10.) I am surprised that the secondary was not addressed until the 7th round.
11.) I was very surprised that the Patriots did not select a linebacker.
12.) I am disappointed that I now have to tell my wife that her Greek God, Fauria, was replaced by a Day 1 pick
13.) I think that my wife will say that David Thomas is a downgrade in the looks department.

 

[BelichickFan]

2.) The Steelers, the defending SB champs, helped themselves a great deal. I do not think that anyone had a draft good enough to overtake the Steelers as the #1 team.
4.) Given the track record of rookie wideouts and Florida wideouts, I do not expect Jackson to perform as a top #2 until the latter half of the 2007 season.

I just disagree with these two.

I don't think we have any overtaking to do to pass the Steelers, I think we're already better - we just didn't play a good game in the playoffs.

I don't think this is your father's Florida WR. Belichick seems confident that Urban Meyer WR are well situated to transition to the NFL - probably unlike Spurrier WR.

 

[patchick]

I don't think this is your father's Florida WR. Belichick seems confident that Urban Meyer WR are well situated to transition to the NFL - probably unlike Spurrier WR.

I agree with this. The Flordia WR reputation came from the idea that Spurrier's offense inflated wideouts' numbers, but Meyer's offense had the opposite effect on Jackson's numbers -- his YPC were reduced by running inside routes in a short-passing scheme.

That being said, a rookie is a rookie. Significant 2006 production would be a pleasant surprise.

 

[spacecrime]

5.) Would anyone trade a 4th round pick in 2006 for a 6th round pick in 2007?? Well, the Pats used a 4th round pick in 2006 to replace Adam. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 6th round compensatory pick for the loss of Adam. Would anyone trade a 3rd round pick in 2006 for a 4th round pick in 2007???Well, the Pats used a 3rd round pick in 2006 to replace Givens. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 4th round compensatory pick for the loss of Givens. My point is that while it is great to receive compensatory picks to help offset the loss of free agents but please do not forget that the loss of free agents forces teams to then fill needs with unproven draft picks.

I cannot follow the logic here. I do not see what the compensation pick has to do with how we acquire a specific player. What if we went with Grammitca and hadn't signed a kicker at all? Then we'd get a "free" sixth round draft pick next year? So AV leaving would would be a good thing because it would net us something? But drafting a guy loses us something?

Same as Givens. We already signed Reche. Maybe he replaced Givens. Maybe we got a "free" pick by letting him walk. What if we had drafted Mike Hass late. Could he replace Givens?

I just don't think it is this simple.

9.) Bethel Johnson is my choice for the player that will create the most posts in a "Will he make the team" thread.

I think you are right, but it will never replace the David Patten thread.

13.) I think that my wife will say that David Thomas is a downgrade in the looks department.

This is the understatement of the year. And don't try to pawn off Garrett Mills to youir wife instead of David Thomas, either.

 

[mcbee]

I cannot follow the logic here. I do not see what the compensation pick has to do with how we acquire a specific player. What if we went with Grammitca and hadn't signed a kicker at all? Then we'd get a "free" sixth round draft pick next year? So AV leaving would would be a good thing because it would net us something? But drafting a guy loses us something?

Same as Givens. We already signed Reche. Maybe he replaced Givens. Maybe we got a "free" pick by letting him walk. What if we had drafted Mike Hass late. Could he replace Givens?

I just don't think it is this simple.

I think you are right, but it will never replace the David Patten thread.

This is the understatement of the year. And don't try to pawn off Garrett Mills to youir wife instead of David Thomas, either.

Yeah there's some crazy logic in there. We traded a 4th for a 6th, what? Using a 4th when we only get a 6th round pick? What if we got no pick, they had no compensatory picks. Then, using that logic, we should always sign our FAs no matter what the cost. Does that make sense? AFter all, you don't want to trade a 4th round pick for NOTHING. Do you?

4th round picks free up cap money which means you can use it on other players. Adam wanted 2M cap hit. This guy's will prob. be 350K or something.

Adam was old anyway.

If you had unlimited money then draft picks would be worthless..you could just hire whomeever you wanted in the FA market.

 

[Miguel]

I cannot follow the logic here. I do not see what the compensation pick has to do with how we acquire a specific player. What if we went with Grammitca and hadn't signed a kicker at all? Then we'd get a "free" sixth round draft pick next year? So AV leaving would would be a good thing because it would net us something?

That has been the logic used by some on this board.

If the Pats had retained Adam, there is no doubt in my mind that the Pats would have not used a 4th round pick on a kicker.

If the Pats had retained Givens, I seriously doubt that they would have used a 2nd round and a 3rd round pick to obtain Chad Jackson.

My point is that some people are looking forward to receiving 2007 compensatory picks without maybe realizing that the Patriots used 2006 draft picks to replace the lost players.

 

[JJDChE]

6.) In a conference with Brady, Manning, Palmer, and Big Ben, the Mario Williams selection makes a lot of sense to me.

IF Williams is a prospect on the same level as Bush, it would make sense to me. That's my problem with people who argue for the defensive player. All things being equal, yes, I would take the DLineman. But, IMO, all things aren't equal. Bush is the better prospect and I would have taken him.

10.) I am surprised that the secondary was not addressed until the 7th round.

I'm not necessarily surprised. We have a lot of players in our secondary.

CB: Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Warfield, CScott, Poteat
S: Harrison, Wilson, Sanders, Tebucky, Mitchell, GScott, Ventrone

I just don't see a lot of room for rookies in there. Of course, everyone wants to see us draft some young stud safety to take over for Harrison when he's done, but I just don't see that as a necessity. I like the secondary we have.

Warfield did a pretty respectable job filling in at safety last year, and Chad Scott can step into that role too. I just think we have a lot of versatile talent in our DBackfield. It's not the youngest out there, which is one reason why you could knock them for not getting a DB earlier, but they may think they have a young guy on the roster now that will be able to take over for Harrison. Ventrone? I've heard good things about him.

11.) I was very surprised that the Patriots did not select a linebacker.

Awww, c'mon, man! I started a whole separate thread to address this issue. Jeremy Mincey is a 3-4 OLB.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

1.) The more I read about the NFL draft the more I think that all a person like me (who does not watch one college football game or pay for draft-related information) needs is to read Rich Gosselin's draft-related articles. Once again, his Top 100 list was the most accurate and his mock draft was among the most accurate.
2.) The Steelers, the defending SB champs, helped themselves a great deal. I do not think that anyone had a draft good enough to overtake the Steelers as the #1 team.
5.) Would anyone trade a 4th round pick in 2006 for a 6th round pick in 2007?? Well, the Pats used a 4th round pick in 2006 to replace Adam. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 6th round compensatory pick for the loss of Adam. Would anyone trade a 3rd round pick in 2006 for a 4th round pick in 2007???Well, the Pats used a 3rd round pick in 2006 to replace Givens. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 4th round compensatory pick for the loss of Givens. My point is that while it is great to receive compensatory picks to help offset the loss of free agents but please do not forget that the loss of free agents forces teams to then fill needs with unproven draft picks.
10.) I am surprised that the secondary was not addressed until the 7th round.
11.) I was very surprised that the Patriots did not select a linebacker.

I agree with most of your points. I have kept those that I disagree with.

2) Every year, so little seperates the top few teams, that injuries and bad luck have as much to do with the SB winner as does talent. I am not worried about "catching up to" the Steelers.


5) If your point was that compensatory picks do not really make up for losing a good player, then I agree. If your point was that we should have paid those players whatever it took to keep them, then I simply disagree. A team cannot realistically sign all of its FAs all the time. Some are going to be offered above value contracts that would be dumb to match. In those cases, it is best to let them go and replace them with undervalued FAs or through the draft.

10) I am not supprised at all. We have had 2-3 consecutive years of stupid bad luck when it comes to injuries. This just cannot continue. Last year, the greatest toll (other than Bruschi) was on our secondary. Having all those guys back this year plus warfield and Jones (and possibly Law) means that the secondary is a lot stronger than most people think. I don't feel it needed to be addressed.

11) They did select a LB (Mincey). We all know he is projected to play that position. Still, seeing how he is a 6th round long shot, I get your point.

 

[PatsFan37]

If the Pats had retained Givens, I seriously doubt that they would have used a 2nd round and a 3rd round pick to obtain Chad Jackson.

For a number of the Antowain Smith years, many of use were sure they'd use a first round pick on a RB, they never did. Now with clock killin' Dillon, they take one in the first round.

There were years we were sure they'd pony up a first rounder on a big WR. Last year they offered good money to Derrick Mason, took David Terrell and traded a sixth for Andre Davis, all while they had Givens.

Point is, you shouldn't assume that losing Givens forced the trade up for Chad Jackson. They might have done that even if Givens was still here, as evidenced by the tremendous effort they put into finding a WR last year.

 

[mgteich]

A) I agree with regard to Gosselin
B) I believe that we are one of the four teams fighting it out to win the AFC. We have gained significantly compared to the roster that was in place for the playoffs, a point that we will analyze in some detail in the next few months.
C) For me, comp picks are just a couple extra picks for next year. The logic you are responding made little sense; your response doen't help much.
D) Graham will have little chance of getting more money from the pats than from other teams. Other teams will give him more reps as the #1 TE. So, I expect Graham to be gone.
E) I agree with regard to Bethel Johnson, with the same results expected as in the past.
F) The secondary is fine. Not counting Spann and Ventrone, we have 14 solid NFL DB/ST players. I wanted an upgrade, but for me, it was in the first 40 picks or not at all. I'm fine with Warfield, Scott and Gay fighting it out for two spots. Of course, I'd prefer Ty (or Tye).
G) If bb says we need a running abck, then we need a running back. Other than Lawson, it seemed that it was a crapshoot. We ended up with Mincey and Roach, both of whom graded out as 4th/5th quality where many of us expected to get the ILB projects. I still expect us to sign a free agent linebacker or two, maybe even taking Chad Brown back.
(H) It is amazing how high the ratings are. We have 11 potential roster players, with plenty of room to accomodate them all.

1.) The more I read about the NFL draft the more I think that all a person like me (who does not watch one college football game or pay for draft-related information) needs is to read Rich Gosselin's draft-related articles. Once again, his Top 100 list was the most accurate and his mock draft was among the most accurate.
2.) The Steelers, the defending SB champs, helped themselves a great deal. I do not think that anyone had a draft good enough to overtake the Steelers as the #1 team.
3.) I love the trade up for Chad Jackson.
4.) Given the track record of rookie wideouts and Florida wideouts, I do not expect Jackson to perform as a top #2 until the latter half of the 2007 season.
5.) Would anyone trade a 4th round pick in 2006 for a 6th round pick in 2007?? Well, the Pats used a 4th round pick in 2006 to replace Adam. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 6th round compensatory pick for the loss of Adam. Would anyone trade a 3rd round pick in 2006 for a 4th round pick in 2007???Well, the Pats used a 3rd round pick in 2006 to replace Givens. It is likely that in 2007 that the Pats will receive a 4th round compensatory pick for the loss of Givens. My point is that while it is great to receive compensatory picks to help offset the loss of free agents but please do not forget that the loss of free agents forces teams to then fill needs with unproven draft picks.
6.) In a conference with Brady, Manning, Palmer, and Big Ben, the Mario Williams selection makes a lot of sense to me.
7.) This draft makes reading Mrs B's TC reports very necessary.
8.) If Graham wants to be the #1 TE in a team's offense, then this year will be his last as a Patriot.
9.) Bethel Johnson is my choice for the player that will create the most posts in a "Will he make the team" thread.
10.) I am surprised that the secondary was not addressed until the 7th round.
11.) I was very surprised that the Patriots did not select a linebacker.
12.) I am disappointed that I now have to tell my wife that her Greek God, Fauria, was replaced by a Day 1 pick
13.) I think that my wife will say that David Thomas is a downgrade in the looks department.

 

[patsox23]

Jeremy Mincey, OLB. Belichick even said so - with a degree of certainty that he seems NEVER to use when it comes to draft picks. "Mincey will be a OLB for us."

 

[Miguel]

5) If your point was that compensatory picks do not really make up for losing a good player, then I agree.

I think that you said my point better than I did.

 

[cubedoggy]

We have a lot of players in our secondary.

CB: Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Warfield, CScott, Poteat
S: Harrison, Wilson, Sanders, Tebucky, Mitchell, GScott, Ventrone

I just don't see a lot of room for rookies in there. Of course, everyone wants to see us draft some young stud safety to take over for Harrison when he's done, but I just don't see that as a necessity. I like the secondary we have.

Warfield did a pretty respectable job filling in at safety last year, and Chad Scott can step into that role too. I just think we have a lot of versatile talent in our DBackfield. It's not the youngest out there, which is one reason why you could knock them for not getting a DB earlier, but they may think they have a young guy on the roster now that will be able to take over for Harrison. Ventrone? I've heard good things about him.

Just to be accurate, I think you mean Hawkins when you talk about Warfield, who wasn't on the Pats last year.

Also, you omitted Hawkins from your DB list.

 

[Mooch]

I think that you said my point better than I did.

The point is well-taken but you've eliminated the third variable: Cap implications.

While using a 4th round pick to replace AV and a 3rd round pick to replace Givens, you do take a step backwards in terms of draft pick value when factoring the compensitory picks. However, you've also presumably freed up a ton of cap space at the same time. So the equation is really the salary difference between Jackson and Gotkowski vs. AV and Givens, as well as the opportunity to address other positions at those picks.

Given the high cap numbers that we would have incurred at Kicker and #2 WR, I still think that this was the wisest course of action.

 

[patsfan13]

There seems to be a consensus developing that D Graham will be gone. IMO BB regards him a a 'core' player like a Bruschi or Seymour. I don't think he will be going to another team. He is as well rounded a TE as I have seen. Some TE are used as receivers, Graham can fill that role but he is also an outstanding blocker, who sacrifices stats to give the team a better chance to win. I have never heard word one from this guy about not getting enough balls thrown his way. He works hard every play does his assignments well. IMO BB is not letting this guy go, till he is past his prime a la AV and Willie this year.

 

[kolbitr]

...read Rich Gosselin's draft-related articles...2.) The Steelers, the defending SB champs, helped themselves a great deal. ...4.) Given the track record of rookie wideouts and Florida wideouts, I do not expect Jackson to perform as a top #2 until the latter half of the 2007 season. ...8.) If Graham wants to be the #1 TE in a team's offense, then this year will be his last as a Patriot...

Indeed, Gosselin is a real font of information. I agree with the posters who have suggested that the Meyer-regime has struck Belichick as different enough from previous ones at UF to take a chance on this kid, despite the very poor record of the receivers from UF in the past. The fact that he has shown versatility in his position is very encouraging. And the timeline sounds pretty good, although I hallucinate that he will show real flashes this year, and be #2 in training camp next year...a bit ahead of schedule.

Does anyone think that Graham has the ability to be a #1 receiving tight end, a la Sharpe, Gates, or even Shockey? He seems to bring numerous skills but has yet to shine...I wonder if anyone would see him as the answer. Interesting line of thought, though.

 

[spacecrime]

There seems to be a consensus developing that D Graham will be gone. IMO BB regards him a a 'core' player like a Bruschi or Seymour. I don't think he will be going to another team. He is as well rounded a TE as I have seen. Some TE are used as receivers, Graham can fill that role but he is also an outstanding blocker, who sacrifices stats to give the team a better chance to win. I have never heard word one from this guy about not getting enough balls thrown his way. He works hard every play does his assignments well. IMO BB is not letting this guy go, till he is past his prime a la AV and Willie this year.

I'm not sure you can say BB won't let him go. First, he could simply not sign with the Pats. Second, he could get a marginally better offer and not give the Pats a chance to match, like the Vinitraitor, Third, he could want more money that the Pats were willing to spend on that position, no matter how much they wanted him (like Givens)

 

[chowder]

Indeed, Gosselin is a real font of information. I agree with the posters who have suggested that the Meyer-regime has struck Belichick as different enough from previous ones at UF to take a chance on this kid, despite the very poor record of the receivers from UF in the past. The fact that he has shown versatility in his position is very encouraging. And the timeline sounds pretty good, although I hallucinate that he will show real flashes this year, and be #2 in training camp next year...a bit ahead of schedule.

Does anyone think that Graham has the ability to be a #1 receiving tight end, a la Sharpe, Gates, or even Shockey? He seems to bring numerous skills but has yet to shine...I wonder if anyone would see him as the answer. Interesting line of thought, though.

It's been mentioned in previous posts that the entire offense was designed around Graham in college, so there's no doubt in my mind that he has the potential to be a #1 receiving tight end.

 

[spacecrime]

5) If your point was that compensatory picks do not really make up for losing a good player, then I agree.

Me, too. The pick helps a little, and takes some of the sting away, but if you could do better by losing your FAs than by signing then, no one would sign their FAs

 

[patchick]

Me, too. The pick helps a little, and takes some of the sting away, but if you could do better by losing your FAs than by signing then, no one would sign their FAs

I agree, and what's more I think everyone agrees -- this seems like something of a straw-man argument. Does anybody think the Pats intentionally let valuable players walk because they're champing at the bit for an extra 6th rounder? Comp picks don't even start until the end of day 1, so they obviously don't "make up for" the loss of a top contributor.

A question: do FA signings count in the comp offset equation if they don't make the team? The only time I could see comp picks tilting the decision would be in signing a JAG vet as camp fodder. If you really didn't expect the guy to make the team and his signing could cost you a low-round pick, you might pass.