David Givens

[Brownfan80]

Andy, I believe you are vastly devaluing Givens worth.

I understand the point you're making, but I believe you're assuming that the only WRs that get FA value are guys with 4.3 speed.

Givens does not have 4.3 speed, but he's got enough speed to get deep and beat a corner or S. He won't burn them, but he'll get open.

But Givens true value comes from his other attributes. He's big, muscular and a great blocker. He has great hands and runs very good routes. He's physical and will punish tacklers as often as they punish him. He plays bigger than his 6'0 size would indicate.

I think that teams around the league are not going to simply look at his 40 time and then look away. I think they will see his hands, blocking ability, route running and pysical style as huge incentive to buy him up. I think you are vastly undershooting what teams are going to think of Givens, and in truth from what I'm reading your vastly undervaluing Givens based solely on his straightline speed.

I'm not saying that the other 31 clubs will be battling for him. But I believe that 4 to 5 clubs would be very interested in a Hines Ward type of WR, which is what I believe Givens is. Hines is a little faster, but everything else about his game is just about equal to Ward's game. (minus the durability)

I think that Givens is huge for this offense and that we will suffer for a spell if we don't get him back. Our offense operates so much better with him in there and healthy.

 

[Miguel]

I think WR is somewhat unique in that my feeling is that history has dictated that 'atheltic skills' determine what teams will pay for at the position.

If this version of FA were in place then, it would have taken Steve Largent a lot longer to earn as much as a 'real fast' WR. He would have eventually, but he would have had to prove himself for much longer than the 'potential gamebreaker'.

Could be wrong, but thats my read on the makret.

Please give some recent examples.

Look at the Patriots' interest in Derrick Mason.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Commentary/Spins/2005/spins030305.htm

"The misconception with Mason is that he’s a deep, speed-type receiver. In reality, his straight-line speed is relatively modest. But he runs great routes, a coup for Boller who has inconsistent accuracy, and has quickness and elusiveness after the catch to improve the Ravens’ impotent passing game. Don’t expect a major decline in Mason’s overall production."

Derrick Mason is 5'10, 192.
David Givens is 6'0, 212.

If Mason was the top free agent WR last offseason without having great measurables, then should Givens be treated as a system WR??

 

[PATSNUTme]

Givens is more of a "pocession" reciever rather than a deep threat. His value is getting first downs, which is big.

IMO, his value to the team considering he is young and valuable would be $2mil cap hit over a three year contract. How they structure that between bonus and salary is beyond my pay grade.

 

[Brownfan80]

Givens is more of a "pocession" reciever rather than a deep threat. His value is getting first downs, which is big.

IMO, his value to the team considering he is young and valuable would be $2mil cap hit over a three year contract. How they structure that between bonus and salary is beyond my pay grade.

His value is not just 'getting first downs' though that is a big part of it. He also chews up yardage as seen in our game vs Tampa. He not only picks up that big third down you need. He takes you from your own goal line out to your 40. Changes in field position like that are huge and he consistently converts those third downs into 20-30 yard plays that change a game.

Typical 'possession recievers' are good for the 10 you need to get the first down and that's it. Givens does that, but much more than that as well. He's a special talent.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not devaluing Givens, I am assessing the market.

The market, IMO, pays for speed or size. The market pays for 90 catch guys.

The market doesnt pay for 50-60 catch guys with average speed and average size.

Sure teams will want David Givens, but I just dont see him as a guy teams will pay thorugh the teeth for, simply based on what they have done in the past.

 

[Brownfan80]

I'm not devaluing Givens, I am assessing the market.

The market, IMO, pays for speed or size. The market pays for 90 catch guys.

The market doesnt pay for 50-60 catch guys with average speed and average size.

Sure teams will want David Givens, but I just dont see him as a guy teams will pay thorugh the teeth for, simply based on what they have done in the past.

IMO we let Patten go mainly because of Givens and his production, and a team paid for Patten, so why wouldn't they Pay for Givens?

Patten has great speed, but he's tiny and has no other physical attributes that you'd attribute to a 90 catch guy and in fact has never caught 90 balls in a season, yet he got his big contract. I know it was the Redskins which may debunk this statement, but if a team will pay for Patten, why would they not pay for Givens? I guess we just see it differently.

I think the poster that mentioned Mason is spot on about his measurables and the interest he receieved. I think Givens would get some play.

Hopefully we don't have to find out though. Hopefully we resign him before it gets to that point.

 

[PATSNUTme]

His value is not just 'getting first downs' though that is a big part of it. He also chews up yardage as seen in our game vs Tampa. He not only picks up that big third down you need. He takes you from your own goal line out to your 40. Changes in field position like that are huge and he consistently converts those third downs into 20-30 yard plays that change a game.

Typical 'possession recievers' are good for the 10 you need to get the first down and that's it. Givens does that, but much more than that as well. He's a special talent.

He is primarily a pocession reciever compared to Branch. I agree that he is even more than that.

I would be interested in your thoughts, AJ's, and others if the 2mil cap that I suggested is too little, too much, or just right?

 

[kptmorgan04]

I am glad that others view my opinion on givens value to not only this team, but what he will be worth in the FA market after this year (hopefully in a double edged sword kind of way he will have a nice playoff run to further market himself and drive his price up).
I have drunk plenty of kool aid though and am sure that the right decescion will be made in the offseason with him, although I sure hope he will be back and flexing his muscles in next years super bowl!

 

[Ring 6]

IMO we let Patten go mainly because of Givens and his production, and a team paid for Patten, so why wouldn't they Pay for Givens?

Patten has great speed, but he's tiny and has no other physical attributes that you'd attribute to a 90 catch guy and in fact has never caught 90 balls in a season, yet he got his big contract. I know it was the Redskins which may debunk this statement, but if a team will pay for Patten, why would they not pay for Givens? I guess we just see it differently.

I think the poster that mentioned Mason is spot on about his measurables and the interest he receieved. I think Givens would get some play.

Hopefully we don't have to find out though. Hopefully we resign him before it gets to that point.

No Patten isnt a 90 catch guy, you misread what I said.

Look, I could bve wrong. Im just saying that what I have seen is GMs drool over speed and/or size at WR. Patten was signed FOR his speed, and ability to 'stretch the field'. Its very likely Washington would have chosen him over Givens, because that is what some teams do.

I have just seen a lack of big money interest in solid all around produicers like Givens, and teams overpaying for fast guy who havent produced.
Mason IMO doesnt fit the example because he is a 90 catch guy.

 

[Brownfan80]

No Patten isnt a 90 catch guy, you misread what I said.

Look, I could bve wrong. Im just saying that what I have seen is GMs drool over speed and/or size at WR. Patten was signed FOR his speed, and ability to 'stretch the field'. Its very likely Washington would have chosen him over Givens, because that is what some teams do.

I have just seen a lack of big money interest in solid all around produicers like Givens, and teams overpaying for fast guy who havent produced.
Mason IMO doesnt fit the example because he is a 90 catch guy.

I certainly hope you're right, but I think when looking at our system you have to say that Givens has the potential to be an 80 or 90 catch guy in a system that doesnt' spread it around so much. I think other teams would see that.

But honestly I'm hoping you are right though as it would make resigning Givens much easier. I just have a feeling that he will draw more interest. As we know I'm keen to think of the negative, so I'm just thinking of some team swooping and luring him away with big money when I really really hope he'll stay.

But I do think his skillset would draw interest. I guess we'll see what happens.

 

[Miguel]

I have just seen a lack of big money interest in solid all around produicers like Givens,

Please name them.

Solid all-around producers like Givens typically do not reach the free agent market. They are resigned by their teams. It is players with the measurables (Burress, Patten,Muhammad) who do reach the free agent market.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Features/Free+Agency/2005/top100.htm

Last year Givens was considered one of the top free agents as a RFA. This offseason he might be the 2nd best WR (after Wayne) who is an UFA. IMO, there is no way that Givens will be treated just a system WR. How many teams need to improve at WR?? How many good WRs will be available in free agency?? The law of supply and demand tells me that Givens will be highly sought after.

 

[Brownfan80]

He is primarily a pocession reciever compared to Branch. I agree that he is even more than that.

I would be interested in your thoughts, AJ's, and others if the 2mil cap that I suggested is too little, too much, or just right?

I feel like all of our recievers run all the routes actually. Branch probably gets a few more posts thrown his way but Givens runs many of the same routes as Branch and vise versa.

Anywho.. As for the 2 mil.. I think that would be about what the Patriots would max out at as far as value for that player. But it all depends on how Givens sees himself. Does he see himself as a #1 guy rather than a top 5 #2? He may want to bank more coin than that and test FA.

Givens has proven that he's a very valuable commodity, so I feel that if the Pats could sign him for 5 or 6 years at an average of 2 mil a year they'd have to go for that, they'd probably jump all over it. Givens may not go for that though, in fact I think he'd probably balk big time and look for more money.

 

[BelichickFan]

I expect the Patriots to make Givens their best offer and let him go out and see if he can do better. If he can't, they would welcome him back. The thought of Givens being gone is a little scary but that's with the current group of WR, if he leaves we'll still have free agency and the draft to find an adequate replacement.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Please name them.

Solid all-around producers like Givens typically do not reach the free agent market. They are resigned by their teams. It is players with the measurables (Burress, Patten,Muhammad) who do reach the free agent market.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Features/Free+Agency/2005/top100.htm

Last year Givens was considered one of the top free agents as a RFA. This offseason he might be the 2nd best WR (after Wayne) who is an UFA. IMO, there is no way that Givens will be treated just a system WR. How many teams need to improve at WR?? How many good WRs will be available in free agency?? The law of supply and demand tells me that Givens will be highly sought after.

So, what do you think his value would be on the open market and to the Patriots?

 

[PatsRI]

Michael Smith is on EEI today (for Arnold) and he said he thinks Givens is a 75 catch guy in somebody else's system and will probably get that money somewhere else. Smith said he didn't see Givens getting it here because they wouldn't pay him more than Branch and that other teams probably would and that would leave it up to Givens to say what he wanted. Smith also said that the fact that they went after Mason last offseason could work against them with Givens and his agents, he could ask for what they were trying to offer Mason.

Personally I can see a team like Philly trying to get him if they unload TO. I'd like see him stay but for some reason I feel he and Seymour will be gone in the next year/2.

 

[Brady#12]

he'a one of the best clutch WR's in the NFL

 

[bigsid05]

Ugh, that's not what I want to hear. This team needs to hold onto its younger talent, not let go of Seymour and Givens.

 

[ilduce06410]

givens is the new beast

I really hope you are right (so that we can resign him for a cost effective price), but I personally think (of course I am a pats fan and watch them more than any other team) that givens has great physical skills (he was compared to hines ward by a tampa bay player after the game which I think is a very good analysis of what givens will become in the league).

i remember reading that patriots told him to model himself after hines ward--big posession receiver, speed that has to be respected, ferocious blocker, smart route-runner. i read somewhere thata last year when givens told patriots he wanted "hines ward money", they laughed at him.
miguel's page shows 2005 is givens' walk year. his cap number this year is $1.4 million, more than i expected. troy brown gets $700K. ben watson ($1.3m) & christian fauria ($900K) get less, as does deion ($660K). graham makes more, with a 2005 cap hit at $1.5m.
according to a steelers fansite, ward's 05 cap # is $2.44m. i'm not sure where the patriots will go on this one.

 

[Harrison37]

I think that Givens can command a big pay day because of how he's figured into the big picture of the Patriots' winning ways in the last two Super Bowls.

Teams covet that, more than the measurables IMO.

Teams like Cleveland, for example- who have their measurable stud in Braylon Edwards, would no doubt love to add someone like Givens to go along with their deep threat receiver and Kellen Winslow, if he ever actually plays a full season. You RAC will probably push hard for the Browns to sign Givens...

Also- I recall that the Pats contacted Givens' agent before the 2002 draft and asked about signing him as a free agent. He told them that they'd better draft him, otherwise he was going to advise him to sign with another team where he might get more of an opportunity.

He's worked out much better than we figured- but, I don't doubt for a second that if he has the chance to play elsewhere for more $$$ and possibly more of a chance to be featured, he'll jump. He's gotten a pair of championships here, and unless he adopts the same philosophy as Tedy Bru, I just see him being a guy who says, "Thanks for the memories, but I'm going to go get mine."

I hope they can sign him and he stays...he does so much for this team. But, I'm steeling myself for the disappointment of him being wooed away by another club who recognizes his value and is prepared to break the bank to sign him.

 

[Ring 6]

Please name them.

Solid all-around producers like Givens typically do not reach the free agent market. They are resigned by their teams. It is players with the measurables (Burress, Patten,Muhammad) who do reach the free agent market.

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Features/Free+Agency/2005/top100.htm

Last year Givens was considered one of the top free agents as a RFA. This offseason he might be the 2nd best WR (after Wayne) who is an UFA. IMO, there is no way that Givens will be treated just a system WR. How many teams need to improve at WR?? How many good WRs will be available in free agency?? The law of supply and demand tells me that Givens will be highly sought after.

Hey, Im just giving an opinion. I dont know if it is 100% correct or not, I did not research it, and never presented it as fact.

My IMPRESSION is that teams overpay for physical skills at WR (esp burners). I dont remember Givens-type players being highly sought after for big money. Maybe I am wrong.

Do you have examples of guys who arent speed merchants or very big WRs, or in the 90 catch class who have gotten big deals?
They may be out there, I just dont remember any.

My point has simply been that NFL teams have a tendancy to overvalue speed and size compared to football ability at this position. It happens every year in the draft also.

I think Givens can be described as a solid all-around WR, who isnt head and shoulders above the crowd in any particular aspect. I think his career thus far would tell teams he is not:
A) A field stretching speed demon
B) A very large target
C) A guy capable of catching 90-100 passes, and being among the top 5-10 WRs in the NFL in production.

My opinion is solely that teams look for A,B and/or C when doling out big FA contracts to WRs. IMO, other teams will see Givens as a nice player, but not a difference maker.

It is pertinent though, that if the supply is low his price tag will rise.