Curran: Pats' reliance on the run may not be a good thing

[JMC00]

CISGS, Meet Rob Gronkowski. He is probably the most dominant non-QB in the NFL, and he played against the Texans, Broncos and Panthers, and half of the Browns game. He is out for the year.

Brady really struggled against the Saints and Browns and I don't think those are the games you want to be highlighting to for the point that the Patriots passing game should be feared or that Brady "shredded" anybody.

Brady started to play better in that browns game after Gronkowski went out.

 

[letekro]

No. He is saying that it so so very typical in Pats Nation to have a great win by the team and then quickly turn around and discuss how we are in trouble next week. Not even a day can pass before the negative talk and concerns come along.

Yes it is true that the lack of weapons in the passing game may be detrimental if the run game cant get it done. That is an obvious statement. And it's not as if the Pats coaching staff isn't aware of it.

It is an "analysis" piece. Maybe you think the analysis is stupid or self-evident, but at least it is analysis and not some stupid puff piece written by Dan Shaughnessy about how the Pats are destined to go to the SB just because he has so decided while researching some baseball "hot stove" story.

 

[letekro]

Brady started to play better in that browns game after Gronkowski went out.

No, he stated playing better after the Browns got way ahead and played prevent, which is a strategy that would have worked had they simply recovered the onside kick.

 

[letekro]

Brady started to play better in that browns game after Gronkowski went out.

Btw, it has nothing to do with how Brady is playing. It's just that the guys they have can't consistently get open down the field or in the end zone. That's a problem. Hopefully, we will shut Denver down early so the running game can be established. Curran is just pointing out the problems that will likely ensue if we can't do that.

 

[Ivan]

The running game is a problem if the defense is giving up points.

This is really what it comes down to. If they can continue to control games with it then it is an exceptional weapon, if they fall behind by 14 then this team will be in trouble because they no longer have the weapons at TE and WR to dominate other teams with them. Hopefully Dobson and Thompkins return and contribute but even then this is not a receiving corps that will scare opposing coordinators.


On the other hand I think Curran is overstating the case because he is presuming all goes wrong. If the Patriots can do to the Denver front 7 what they have been doing to better defenses lately then they can completely control the pace of the game, limit drive opportunities for manning and keep the game in the 20's and take one in Denver. It's better for time of possession, better for their OL and pass protection, better for their defense, and they have shown the ability to score over 30 relying upon it. Winning in Denver will be a tall order but imo this is the best way to achieve it, but the key will be keeping the game within a score defensively throughout it.

 

[letekro]

On the other hand I think Curran is overstating the case because he is presuming all goes wrong. If the Patriots can do to the Denver front 7 what they have been doing to better defenses lately then they can completely control the pace of the game, limit drive opportunities for manning and keep the game in the 20's and take one in Denver. It's better for time of possession, better for their OL and pass protection, better for their defense, and they have shown the ability to score over 30 relying upon it. Winning in Denver will be a tall order but imo this is the best way to achieve it, but the key will be keeping the game within a score defensively throughout it.

I hear what you're saying and I do think the Pats can keep it close and steal one, but Denver (7th) is much better than Buffalo (23rd) and Indy (24th) when it comes to run defense (YPC).

 

[farn]

"May not be a good thing".... It's very relative. Without the running game, there is a good chance NE doesn't get to the next game. In Denver (most likely) they'll need to see what they're being given. But to get to the AFCCG is important. By any means.

 

[RobertWeathers]

This is really what it comes down to. If they can continue to control games with it then it is an exceptional weapon, if they fall behind by 14 then this team will be in trouble because they no longer have the weapons at TE and WR to dominate other teams with them. Hopefully Dobson and Thompkins return and contribute but even then this is not a receiving corps that will scare opposing coordinators.


On the other hand I think Curran is overstating the case because he is presuming all goes wrong. If the Patriots can do to the Denver front 7 what they have been doing to better defenses lately then they can completely control the pace of the game, limit drive opportunities for manning and keep the game in the 20's and take one in Denver. It's better for time of possession, better for their OL and pass protection, better for their defense, and they have shown the ability to score over 30 relying upon it. Winning in Denver will be a tall order but imo this is the best way to achieve it, but the key will be keeping the game within a score defensively throughout it.

Exactly. Its all predicated on the defense. If the opposing offense is being contained, you can run all day long and be content with 3rd and 3s or 2nd and 7s. and run it in those D&Ds. If you are down 24-3 in the 3rd qtr, well start throwing.

 

[TruthSeeker]

He had Dobson and/or Boyce and/or Gronk and/or a useful KT for most of the above.

Pats are down to three slot receivers.

If Dobson can't go, time for him to go on the IR and bring in a practice player WR who can contribute. Same with Thompkins. There is no tomorrow, have to play for the now.

 

[JMC00]

I hear what you're saying and I do think the Pats can keep it close and steal one, but Denver (7th) is much better than Buffalo (23rd) and Indy (24th) when it comes to run defense (YPC).

Why did you leave out Carolina, Cleveland, Baltimore? Pats ran for 4.3 YPC against Carolina (12th in YPC/A), 4.1 YPC against Cleveland (8th), and 4.2 against Baltimore (5th).

They also ran it at 4.5 YPC against the Jets in the game in NY. Jets were #1 in the league this year in YPC/A with 3.7.

 

[Ivan]

I hear what you're saying and I do think the Pats can keep it close and steal one, but Denver (7th) is much better than Buffalo (23rd) and Indy (24th) when it comes to run defense (YPC).

I understand what you are saying but I really don't put that much stock in yardage stats, and this Denver team is a good example of why. Much like the really high scoring Patriot teams they are always ahead of teams and often by 2-3 scores, so teams are always throwing on them to catch up, which is also a reason the highest scoring teams usually give up big passing yards. I have more respect for Buffalo's front 7 than I do Denver's, and i think their run defense is every bit as good even though the numbers don't reflect that.


People will disagree but to me the overall yardage stats are not important but the situational ones are. How teams fare against the run on running downs or against the pass on obvious passing downs is a much better reflection of how good they are at it, but like everything else in football they too are contextual.

I like the Patriots run game against the Bronco's if they face them next week but it is still going to be a tough win for them. The Bronco's have great weapons at their skill positions and Manning, so keeping it close will be the imperative, however if they can then i think they will win. The patriots run game can dominate a 4th quarter and if it is within 7 in the fourth i really like NE to win it.



If they win the toss next week i expect Belichick to break from tradition and take the ball so they can go out and chew up as much of the first quarter as possible and put the Bronco's under stress.

 

[letekro]

I understand what you are saying but I really don't put that much stock in yardage stats, and this Denver team is a good example of why. Much like the really high scoring Patriot teams they are always ahead of teams and often by 2-3 scores, so teams are always throwing on them to catch up, which is also a reason the highest scoring teams usually give up big passing yards. I have more respect for Buffalo's front 7 than I do Denver's, and i think their run defense is every bit as good even though the numbers don't reflect that.


People will disagree but to me the overall yardage stats are not important but the situational ones are. How teams fare against the run on running downs or against the pass on obvious passing downs is a much better reflection of how good they are at it, but like everything else in football they too are contextual.

I like the Patriots run game against the Bronco's if they face them next week but it is still going to be a tough win for them. The Bronco's have great weapons at their skill positions and Manning, so keeping it close will be the imperative, however if they can then i think they will win. The patriots run game can dominate a 4th quarter and if it is within 7 in the fourth i really like NE to win it.



If they win the toss next week i expect Belichick to break from tradition and take the ball so they can go out and chew up as much of the first quarter as possible and put the Bronco's under stress.

....that's why I gave you the YPC ranking and not total yards.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

right now it will be hard to come from behind 14+ points with their commitment to the run and injuries to dobson and KT

Isn't it always difficult to come back from 14 down in the playoffs?

 

[sb1]

The Broncos run defense isn't the matchup the Pats will try to exploit, nor should they.

They'll throw on them. That's where that defense can be had.

 

[Ivan]

....that's why I gave you the YPC ranking and not total yards.

I'm not sure how that changes anything. The patriots, for example, will give up aspects of the game to meet their overall goals every week. Points matter, yards really don't.

 

[Ivan]

The Broncos run defense isn't the matchup the Pats will try to exploit, nor should they.

They'll throw on them. That's where that defense can be had.

Getting into a scoring competition with the Bronco's is foolish, they are going to try and run the clock and limit Manning's drives. How the game develops might dictate their gameplan but if they can they will do exactly what they have been doing for the last month, run it down their throats and control the game. That doesn't mean they won't throw it but this isn't going to be a game of spreading them out with empty backfields for the Patriots.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The Broncos run defense isn't the matchup the Pats will try to exploit, nor should they.

They'll throw on them. That's where that defense can be had.

Yes and no. If your strength is running the football because that is your strength and the best way for your passing game - which is limited can be most successful, and keep Manning off the field, then you run the ball.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Our passing offensive players are not the same even from 3 weeks ago. No TE threat, dobson,KT,boyce all out so no real deep threat. Pats passing offense is amendola and edelman with vereen as a pass catcher. So if we have to throw 50 passes between these 3 , not going to be easy.If the pats had gronk and dobson yesterday they certainly wouldve aired it out more on first down. Right now in the last 3 weeks most of the passing is done of play action which most of the times needs a running game.
Its easier right now to lean on the running game and there is nothing wrong with the observation.

His observation isn't that they are relying on the run game because the run game is good. He's saying they can't pass so they went to the run game, backs that up with an incorrect interpretation of statistics. And KT played, none of those guys are true deep threats because none can catch a deep ball more than 1 in 10 times.

The offensive weapons are average, if the run game was average that would be bad. But the spin saying that a good ground game is a bad thing is stupid analysis.

 

[I am party]

"They will ask Brady to beat them"

Curran. Get off the pipe.

Here's the complete quote.

"They will ask Brady to beat them. Demand that he make pinpoint throws to small receivers against aggressive defensive backs. If it works, demand that he do it again."

He's 100% right.

Brady started to play better in that browns game after Gronkowski went out.

Vereen had the game of his life. But then the next week, Vereen was completely erased from the offense by Miami.

 

[JMC00]

Vereen had the game of his life. But then the next week, Vereen was completely erased from the offense by Miami.

And those small receivers against those aggressive Miami corners combined for 23 catches and 270 yards