In your opinion, how good does the #3 pick QB need to be?

[PatsFanInVa]

The 3 overall?

I want "put his ass in Canton after 1 year" good.

I mean, me too. Heck, I want that at every pick, right?

But "want" isn't the metric that makes sense, it's "what usually happens plus some margin that means you demand excellence."

After 1 year? Pro Bowl good. (And that's a ridiculously high bar)

Oh wait that didn't help.

I can't see the sheet, but if the QB isn't a 10yr starter for you, you should have picked the LT.

What if you whiff at the LT? A 10 year starter is nice, it means some success. I guess MJ still has potential to turn it around, and might need to earn his shot to do that now.

That's a pretty legit bar, with the bottom set at "Well, he's not the best, but he was the best we could get over 10 consecutive years, cap implications etc. all playing into the equation."

10 year franchise QB, that you can win Lombardi’s with.

So every year, 3 or more teams have a good chance to get a 10 year franchise QB you can win SBs with?

This is another "I want" metric, and while my heart agrees, my brain says it's aspirational to say the least.

Eli Manning or better.

So the floor is 2 Super Bowl rings.


This is what kills me about the draft. Folks, when you're in a hole, you're in a hole. We can wish for lightning to strike, but karmically speaking, we owe on that electric bill, to mix the metaphor really badly.

By the way, this is what the hole looks like, not losing in the AFCCG. At least now it's legitimate to worry about QB position

Work time!

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I would be happy to trade down from 3 to 5/6/7 and likely still get one of Nabers/Alt/Fashanu/Daniels. You might get an extra 1st if you are lucky.

After stewing on this the past month, and given our #3 position with the top 2 QB's gone, I think our #1 target in this draft should be LT: Alt or Fashanu. I doubt we re-sign Trent Brown, so the cupboard is even more bare at OT and there are no top FA's. There's no reason to think that Lowe or Wheatley are up to the task. It's a very dire situation.

With that as the goal, trade down to 7 or 8, pick Alt or Fashanu, and get a 2nd, 3rd, and probably a 2025 2nd. This gives us the ammo to trade back up to the mid 1st round if someone slips. Otherwise we pick at 34 and say 40, plus 68 and say 75.

WR: can be solved with our high 3rd round picks and/or FA's - the WR draft is deep and there's Higgins and Pittman as FA's.

QB: for FA's there's Cousins and Mayfield, plus Rudolph who's been looking pretty good. In the draft, with our ammo from trading down we could move back up as high as pick 15 if we want. Daniels will likely be gone by then but you never know. Then it boils down to what grades we have on guys like McCarthy, Nix and Penix, but we'd have the capital to get any of them. Let them develop for 1-2 years on the bench (look at Jordan Love), then we're set.

 

[Patriot Missile]

I don't trust evaluations when they use words like "generational." Too much opportunity for groupthink and band wagoning. There are a lot of good WR's in this draft, from what I'm reading. History is pretty clear that one or more of them will have a better career than Harrison.

Generational means will be great. Best prospect in years. It’s not thrown around very often so you have to listen. Means every scout and evaluator concur that the player will be a difference maker.

I’d love to have him but if they think one of these Qbs is the real deal you have to take the shot. We may regret it, but you still got to try. I miss when we had Brady and didn’t have to worry about this ****.

 

[Patriot Missile]

After stewing on this the past month, and given our #3 position with the top 2 QB's gone, I think our #1 target in this draft should be LT: Alt or Fashanu. I doubt we re-sign Trent Brown, so the cupboard is even more bare at OT and there are no top FA's. There's no reason to think that Lowe or Wheatley are up to the task. It's a very dire situation.

With that as the goal, trade down to 7 or 8, pick Alt or Fashanu, and get a 2nd, 3rd, and probably a 2025 2nd. This gives us the ammo to trade back up to the mid 1st round if someone slips. Otherwise we pick at 34 and say 40, plus 68 and say 75.

WR: can be solved with our high 3rd round picks and/or FA's - the WR draft is deep and there's Higgins and Pittman as FA's.

QB: for FA's there's Cousins and Mayfield, plus Rudolph who's been looking pretty good. In the draft, with our ammo from trading down we could move back up as high as pick 15 if we want. Daniels will likely be gone by then but you never know. Then it boils down to what grades we have on guys like McCarthy, Nix and Penix, but we'd have the capital to get any of them. Let them develop for 1-2 years on the bench (look at Jordan Love), then we're set.

They’ve been trying to solve wr for years with 3rd round picks, hasn’t got them anywhere. At this point if they don’t think one of the 3 qbs are going to pan out then yeah, you go with Harrison, Alt or Fashanu and hope Nix or whoever pan out. They could also easily outbid for Cousins if they needed a stop gap.
Problem with this draft is there are only (possible) 2 LT that can plug in right away. Last years LT class was abysmal producing only 2 in the entire draft which weren’t first rounders.

Still hoping they believe in one of the big 3 QBs though. Trading back for picks and watching that QB light it up and produce big time for another team would be hard to watch.

 

[venecol]

In the long run? Which of these guys would be a good enough return on the #3 pick, for you?

1st RD QBs in 2023 Playoffs: 10 out of 14

2023 DIV from your list: 7 out of 8
2016 (1), 2017 (1), 2018 (3), 2020 (1), 2023 (1)

Losing WC QBs: 3 out of 12
2008 (1), 2009 (1), 2020 (1)

In order to win it all, you've got to make it to the dance. Pick a QB at #3

 

[zimmy]

3rd overall isn't a bad place to be at all. Teams will want Harrison. Could see us flipping with Arizona at 4 but New York at 6 and Tennessee at 7 are options too for Harrison.

We need to ideally come away from the draft with a future QB, a starting OT and a dynamic weapon on offense. As much as I would love Harrison it sounds like another really deep WR draft and that need could easily be filled at 34 or 67. Unless Daniels nails the pre-draft process, it might be we need to look at the McCarthy/Nix/Penix tier of QBs in that 20-50 range. So trading down to 6/7, taking Alt/Fashanu, getting the next QB at 34 and maybe using the picks from the first trade to get back up from 67 for a WR might be the best play. This is all before I've really started looking at the prospects - just from a strategy perspective.

 

[pctronics0072]

Want: undebatable first ballot HOFer that spent whole career with the Pats, ideally at QB.

Reality: I am not that impressed with any of the QBs in the draft and am not sure any of them are at that level.

 

[Headcase]

.... Unless Daniels nails the pre-draft process, it might be we need to look at the McCarthy/Nix/Penix tier of QBs in that 20-50 range. So trading down to 6/7, taking Alt/Fashanu, getting the next QB at 34 and maybe using the picks from the first trade to get back up from 67 for a WR might be the best play. This is all before I've really started looking at the prospects - just from a strategy perspective.

From 3 to 6/7, require one of the additional picks to be a '24 2nd, have pick 34 and 40ish in the 2nd for QB and WR(or whatever other position).

 

[Uncle Rico]

Dupe post from above. Carry on.

 

[PatsFan2]

Let’s say this. Out of all the QBs in the nfl which ones would you be happy if this guy turned into.

10. No
Allen. Yes
Tua. No
Rodgers. Yes

Pickett. No
Lamar. No
Burrow yes
Watson. No

Lawrence. TBD
Richardson. No
Stroud. TBD so far yes
Levis. No but tbd still

Jimmy g. No
Mahomie yes
Herbert. ??? So far no but potentially yes
Wilson. Yes

D Jones no
Hurts. No
Dak. No
Howell. No

Cousins no
Fields no
Love. No
Goff. No

Mayfield no
Carr. No
Young. No
Ridder. No

Stafford. No
Murrray. No
Geno no
Purdy. So far yes.

That’s not a lot of yesses.

Staffford and Lamar?? No.

 

[Ring 6]

Staffford and Lamar?? No.

For the #3 pick? Stanford didn’t win a playoff game until he went to a different team 10(?) years later, Lamar has what? 1 in 5 years?
You would be happy drafting a qb at #3 and getting those results?

 

[PScottman]

Going back 25 years in the history of top draft picks, top QB picks and those immediately after.

1999
1.1 QB Tim Couch
1.2 QB Donovan McNabb
1.3 Qb Akili Smith
Next picks: Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, David Boston, Chris Claiborne, Chris McAlister and Daunte Culpepper.
The draft choices obviously went horribly wrong for the Browns and Bengals.

2000
First QB was Chad Pennington at #18. That QB class has previously been researched quite extensively.

2001
1.1 QB Michael Vick
Three QBs were drafted in the 2nd round: 2.32 Drew Brees, 2.53 Quincy Carter, 2.59 Marques Tuiasosopo

2002
1.1 QB David Carr
1.3 QB Joey Harrinton
DE Julius Peppers was the right pick at #2. Several good players from #5 to #11.
The next QBs were 1.32 Patrick Ramsey, 3.81 Josh McCown, 4.108 David Garrard and 4.117 Rohan Davey

2003
1.1 QB Carson Palmer was the right pick.
The next QBs were 1.7 Byron Leftwich, 1.19 Kyle Boller and 1.22 Rex Grossman. Brian Billick wanted Boller so badly Baltimore traded picks with the Pats that turned into Vince Wilfork and Eugene Wilson.

2004
1.1 Eli Manning
1.3 Philip Rivers
1.11 Ben Roethlisberger
The big gaffe in this draft was OT Robert Gallery by the Raiders with the 2nd pick.

2005
1.1 QB Alex Smith
1.24 QB Aaron Rodgers
1.25 QB Jason Campbell
The bad picks in this draft were at other offensive skill positions, not QB. Tampa Bay (RB Cadillac Williams, 1.5), Minnesota (WR Troy Williamson, 1.7), and Detroit (WR Mike Williams, 1.10) were selected just prior to LBs DeMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Thomas Davis and Derrick Johnson.

2006
1.3 QB Vince Young
1.10 QB Matt Leinart
1.11 QB Jay Cutler
The top two picks were DE Mario Williams and RB Reggie Bush.

2007
1.1 QB JaMarcus Russell
1.22 QB Brady Quinn
2.36 QB Kevin Kolb
Another mistake by the Raiders, as Al Davis had lost some zip off his fastball by this point. The 2nd and 3rd picks were Hall of Famers: WR Calvin Johnson and OT Joe Thomas.

2008
1.3 QB Matt Ryan
1.18 QB Joe Flacco
2.57 QB Chad Henne
The top two picks were OT Jake Long and DE Chris Long. The Jets had the worst pick, Vernon Gholston at #6. This was the draft that the Pats used an early pick, 3.94 on QB Kevin O'Connell - which I never understood.

2009
1.1 QB Matt Stafford
1.5 QB Mark Sanchez
1.17 QB Josh Freeman
The #2 pick was a bust (OT Jason Smith), the #3 (DE Tyson Jackson) was okay but below expectations of a #3.
Obviously the 2nd and 3rd QBs of this draft did not pan out. The Jets could have had WR Michael Crabtree, LB Brian Orakpo or S Malcolm Jenkins; the Bucs missed on C Alex Mack, WR Percy Harvin, CB Vontae Davis and LB Clay Matthews, all selected a few spots later.

2010
1.1 QB Sam Bradford
1.25 QB Tim Tebow
2.48 QB Jimmy Clausen
Picks #2 through #7 were all Pro Bowlers: DT Ndamukong Suh, DT Gerald McCoy, OT Trent Williams, S Eric Berry, OT Russell Okung and CB Joe Haden. The decision to trade a 2nd, 3rd and 4th to move up to select Tebow has to be one of the worst draft trades in NFL history.

2011
1.1 QB Cam Newton
1.8 QB Jake Locker
1.10 QB Blaine Gabbert
Newton was a very good player before he arrived in New England; Locker and Gabbert never lived up to their draft status. The players selected #2 through #7 were all Pro Bowlwers, as was the one at #9 between Locker and Gabbert. The player taken after Gabbert was DE JJ Watt.


I need a break, will get to 2012-2023 later...

What to take out of this painstaking extensive research?

Those expecting a "home run"...hell even a wall double to make huge fixes to the Patriots via this year's draft are setting their expectations way too high (but will scream the loudest when they're almost inevitably dashed).

Now sprinkle in some FAs as well and those expectations amongst some may be nigh close to "the vapors", but the "not what was expected" percentage of those FAs meeting those expectations is also not a one for one proposition.

This is a massively complex scenario...with new faces and power structures somewhat in place (but not entirely). Simply figuring THAT out such that they put a competitive product on the field may be the BEST outcome fans can hope for. Anything beyond that? Gravy.

 

[Ivan]

I mean, me too. Heck, I want that at every pick, right?

But "want" isn't the metric that makes sense, it's "what usually happens plus some margin that means you demand excellence."

After 1 year? Pro Bowl good. (And that's a ridiculously high bar)

Oh wait that didn't help.

What if you whiff at the LT? A 10 year starter is nice, it means some success. I guess MJ still has potential to turn it around, and might need to earn his shot to do that now.

That's a pretty legit bar, with the bottom set at "Well, he's not the best, but he was the best we could get over 10 consecutive years, cap implications etc. all playing into the equation."

So every year, 3 or more teams have a good chance to get a 10 year franchise QB you can win SBs with?

This is another "I want" metric, and while my heart agrees, my brain says it's aspirational to say the least.

So the floor is 2 Super Bowl rings.


This is what kills me about the draft. Folks, when you're in a hole, you're in a hole. We can wish for lightning to strike, but karmically speaking, we owe on that electric bill, to mix the metaphor really badly.

By the way, this is what the hole looks like, not losing in the AFCCG. At least now it's legitimate to worry about QB position

Work time!

That’s what I want out of the pick, I’m not sugggesting it’s a guarantee be any means. And regardless of the position you should want a Joe Thomas career out of any top 5 pick.

 

[Ivan]

1st RD QBs in 2023 Playoffs: 10 out of 14

2023 DIV from your list: 7 out of 8
2016 (1), 2017 (1), 2018 (3), 2020 (1), 2023 (1)

Losing WC QBs: 3 out of 12
2008 (1), 2009 (1), 2020 (1)

In order to win it all, you've got to make it to the dance. Pick a QB at #3

Agree completely.

 

[Ivan]

What to take out of this painstaking extensive research?

Those expecting a "home run"...hell even a wall double to make huge fixes to the Patriots via this year's draft are setting their expectations way too high (but will scream the loudest when they're almost inevitably dashed).

Now sprinkle in some FAs as well and those expectations amongst some may be nigh close to "the vapors", but the "not what was expected" percentage of those FAs meeting those expectations is also not a one for one proposition.

This is a massively complex scenario...with new faces and power structures somewhat in place (but not entirely). Simply figuring THAT out such that they put a competitive product on the field may be the BEST outcome fans can hope for. Anything beyond that? Gravy.

I don’t think it’s about “expecting a home run,” I think it’s that the opportunity is there to maximize their opportunities this offseason. There is never any guarantee of great success, whether it’s a draft pick, or a free agent, but hoping they can take advantage of the opportunities to fix their biggest problems is what every sports fan does every offseason.

I don’t think this is massively complex. Like any transition they have work to do to put everything in place, but as a team we got a lot of clarity at the end of the season. This is not a total rebuild because their defense showed just how good they were, especially given the way the offense thing them out to dry.. So they need to fix the offense, and they can fill their two biggest needs (QB/LT) on the first day of the draft. They also have over 70 million in cap space, and can address many other issues with that. And if they make the right decisions they can turn this around next season, and possibly make a playoff run.

They could also screw all of it up, and we could end up in in the **** again next season.

 

[stardawg]

Hope for a Jared Goff or Jordan Love. If it's going to be less than that, might as well just trade for Justin Fields

 

[PatsFanInVa]

You want your 7th rounder to just be Purdy good.