Collins

[convertedpatsfan]

You don't want to undersell the value of a 3rd round pick though. I am not saying it is bad just debatable and closer than the others i listed.

However if Rowe makes the 3rd CB spot solid and the Pats win the SB it was of course worth it.

I don't like the idea of trading picks for players with big contracts or who are about to get paid. There's not a lot of value there. I also don't like trading them for older players who are likely to regress.

But this trade is for a solid young big corner on a very cheap 3-year deal. He makes less than $700K this year, then $878K, then $1.1M with no guarantees after this season. You would be thrilled to get similar production out of that draft pick, so I don't really understand the issue here.

I don't like saying but those picks you posted are BB specials. I don't know if any other GM would do as poorly in the second round so consistantly going back 15 years. The second rnd is like a black hole for the pats.

Up until last spring I wanted them to just Trade Completely out of the 3rd. Seems like we have more luck with 4th, 5th and 7th Rounders.

If you only look at Brady's incompletions and interceptions, you'd think he's the worst QB in the league.

You're right, you don't know if any other GM would do as poorly because you didn't spend much time looking at other teams. Lots of teams make lots of misses in the second round. I don't think we're the best team, but we're far from the worst either.

But I think even that misses the whole point. What is the point of the draft? Is the goal to get some meaningful contribution from every single draft pick so fans won't mock your picks? Or is the goal to win games? People always lose sight of that. They think the draft is the game they need to win, and it's not. Some guys get drafted and help. Some guys get drafted and sit until they can prove they're better than the vets already there. Some guys don't ever make it, but that means somebody better did. And I'm okay with that.

From watching and listening to BB, it's clear that he targets high-talent, high-potential guys in the 2nd round usually. These are guys that are often as talented as 1st-rounders, but lack the production that 1st-round picks typically have. He's often swinging for home runs rather than trying to hit singles.

This is a really good article on the strategy.

The 3 types of Bill Belichick 2nd round picks

We've seen him coach up undrafted free agents to become competent starters, so why waste high picks in the 2nd and 3rd round on low ceiling guys he can develop for next to nothing? His goal in rounds 2 and 3 aren't to make sure every single pick contributes, it's to maximize his chances at getting star players that you can't usually find at other times.

He's maximizing the value of those picks by going for rare potential game-changers like Gronk, and when you realize the plan, it makes perfect sense. And once you accept that the draft is just an avenue of getting some players, and not the whole purpose of the NFL, you'll realize we have one of the greatest GMs in football as well.

 

[reflexblue]

Lots of misses, absolutely -- I'm sure BB would be the first to say too many. And yet, since 2009 the Pats have also drafted 2 All-Pros in the second round (Gronkowski, Vollmer) and an apparent starting-quality QB (Garoppolo).

If you actually look around the league at second-round hit rates, you might be surprised how low it is. Baltimore is generally considered a strong drafting team under Ozzie Newsome. Here's their full lineup of second rounders since 2009. How many All-Pros do you see?

Kamalei Correa
Maxx Williams
Timmy Jernigan
Arthur Brown
Kelechi Osemele
Torrey Smith
Sergio Kindle
Terrence Cody
Paul Kruger

I'm referring to defense back picks only. The last time i counted d-back picks that were busts was 2010, and i'm not sure but i believe it was over ten, so that list didn't include tavon wilson or jordan richards.

 

[reflexblue]

In the Belichick era, we've had 21 second round picks, and 10 of them have turned into legit NFL starters: Light, Deion Branch, Eugene Wilson, Chung, Vollmer, Gronk, Spikes, Vereen, Collins and Garoppolo.

There have definitely been misses, but if you subscribe to the conventional wisdom that about 50% of 2nd rounders should turn into NFL starters, we're right in the ballpark of where we should be on batting average. Plus, to stick with the analogy, we're hitting for real power on some of them.

I'm talking defensive backs only, but i could throw in wide receivers

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

52 and counting........... That's the number of days since Collins has been on a winning team. He got traded on Halloween and may likely go 300 days.....

 

[reflexblue]

Gronkowski, Garappolo, Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Pat Chung, Shane Vereen, Jamie Collins, Eugene Wilson?

Defensive backs, thats what we were referring to.

 

[RobertWeathers]

52 and counting........... That's the number of days since Collins has been on a winning team. He got traded on Halloween and may likely go 300 days.....

In 3 years with NE, Collins has experienced losing 10 times. 3 YEARS

He is already 1/2 way there with CLE and hes only been there about 2/5ths of a season.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Defensive backs, thats what we were referring to.

The Pats have picked 7 defensive backs in the second round in Belichick's tenure. Only 2 have been hits (Eugene Wilson, Chung). So sure, that looks bad. But it's also a small sample size, and if you dig a little deeper it becomes clear that Belichick has an unusually high hit rate on third round DBs. Combine second and third round, apply the standard of 'must be a capable, non-detrimental multi-year starter" and you get 5 hits out of 11: E. Wilson, Chung, Hobbs, Harmon and Ryan. That's right in line with the success rate you'd expect out of the second round.

So basically, I just don't see what the point of these claims is. The claim is either a) the sample size is so small on what's essentially a coin flip that no reasonably inference can be drawn, or b) that somehow Belichick forgets how to draft defensive backs in the second round every year, then suddenly remembers how in the third round.

 

[The Gr8est]

The Pats have picked 7 defensive backs in the second round in Belichick's tenure. Only 2 have been hits (Eugene Wilson, Chung). So sure, that looks bad. But it's also a small sample size, and if you dig a little deeper it becomes clear that Belichick has an unusually high hit rate on third round DBs. Combine second and third round, apply the standard of 'must be a capable, non-detrimental multi-year starter" and you get 5 hits out of 11: E. Wilson, Chung, Hobbs, Harmon and Ryan. That's right in line with the success rate you'd expect out of the second round.

So basically, I just don't see what the point of these claims is. The claim is either a) the sample size is so small on what's essentially a coin flip that no reasonably inference can be drawn, or b) that somehow Belichick forgets how to draft defensive backs in the second round every year, then suddenly remembers how in the third round.

While they were not the home run picks we'd like, Darius Butler and Tavon Wilson are starting for other NFL* teams so they don't qualify as busts.

 

[BradyFTW!]

While they were not the home run picks we'd like, Darius Butler and Tavon Wilson are starting for other NFL* teams so they don't qualify as busts.

They fall somewhere in the middle, IMO. I wouldn't call them busts, in that it's hard to call any non-first round pick who earns a second contract and starting role a bust. But I'm not quite ready to call them hits, either, because the Patriots didn't get much from either of them, and I'm still not convinced that either of them are particularly good.

 

[PatsFan2]

BradyFTW! trust your instincts they are not good.