Can we put the whining about trading down to bed?

[BradyFTW!]

hah yeah, I kept thinking he was gonna hang up that's why I was tripping over myself. The argument "if it's so smart why isn't X smart guy doing it?" is so specious on it's face anyway. Why do anything you think is correct unless every smart person in the world is doing it?

If drafting guys like Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez are such a good idea, then why didn't everyone else do it?

Clearly, it's just a ******ed line of reasoning for lazy and stupid people. In other words, it's sports talk radio. I still don't understand why anyone here listens to that crap.

 

[jmt57]

Say what?????

Hey Zeus, how are ya'?




I had to re-read it twice myself also, but mg's comment was his disputing a previous opinion that trading down was 'a good strategy 95% of the time'.

When read by itself, mg's comment loses some context and appears to be much more opinionated than it was probably meant to be.

 

[jmt57]

That caller was me btw, was driving home and flicked it on to hear the inevtiable nonsense i knew they'd be running with and decided to call in for the first time (and last time) ever to a radio show. Didn't get to say everything I wanted to but whatever.

And yeah, they shifted the goalposts after but what can you expect.

edit - I did say 2nd round whoops

It's easy to think of these things afterwards, but you could have also added something about the Great and Wonderful Oz drafting Sergio Kindle with his first choice of the 2010 draft, and the 2003 draft pick trade which turned into the Ravens trading Vince Wilfork for Kyle Boller.


Newsome and the Ravens are one of the best in the league in terms of player evaluations, but it is very misleading when certain people imply that every personnel decision they make is perfect, while the opposite is true for the Patriots.

 

[edboc]

Isn't Felger's argument flawed in the sense that the Patriots started with 5 picks and the Ravens started with ~10 picks when the draft started? If the value in the draft was in the middle rounds, wouldn't you want more picks rather than have few picks? Why would the Ravens trade down for more picks this year when they already had a lot of picks? I would imagine the Patriots' strategy may have been slightly different if they had all of their original picks in this draft. It's not an apples to apples comparison in this particular draft if he's going to compare the the draft strategy (where the teams are picking, how many picks, team needs, how many people are currently signed, etc.) of the Ravens and Patriots in this draft.

 

[TyronePoole]

It's easy to think of these things afterwards, but you could have also added something about the Great and Wonderful Oz drafting Sergio Kindle with his first choice of the 2010 draft, and the 2003 draft pick trade which turned into the Ravens trading Vince Wilfork for Kyle Boller.


Newsome and the Ravens are one of the best in the league in terms of player evaluations, but it is very misleading when certain people imply that every personnel decision they make is perfect, while the opposite is true for the Patriots.

Right well that's what they did after i hung up, started looking at what the Ravens got from those trade down picks in a vacuum (results oriented bias) which really means nothing in the context of arguing against trading down.

In a draft trade scenario the draft selections are irrelevant to the statistical likelihood of a good pick before hand in that slot. So it's inaccurate to say "trading down is a poor strategy x% of the time" or "a good strategy x% of the time." Trading down is a good strategy when in nets you a return that is of greater value. That value is measured by the amount of time that a pick turns out to be a hit. As it turns out the % of the time that draft picks hit on the picks we got back from the Vikings outweighs the % of the time pick we gave them hits. ("hit" is given a more nuanced numerical value than this obviously, and it's not just pro bowl player v non-pro bowler but you get the idea)

That is a separate question from whether or not Cordarrelle Patterson is the right pick. In fairness to Felger he's already conceded that he can't very well get on the radio and say "Collins sucks Belichick's an idiot" so he has to find another angle to go at and this is the one he's chosen. This narrative works because "Trading down for 'value'" when most people interpret 'value' to mean "bargain" or cheap and then ranting about how BB thinks he's the smartest guy ever or whatever seems like a passable narrative, but it falls apart when you look at what he's actually doing . So then it gets a little exposed and he reverts to the actual picks the ravens made after I hung up which is shifting to talent evaluation. It's just super obvious that they're looking for something to complain about for the sake of it (Mazz might actually be duped by Felger though).

 

[Pats0204]

That caller was me btw, was driving home and flicked it on to hear the inevtiable nonsense i knew they'd be running with and decided to call in for the first time (and last time) ever to a radio show. Didn't get to say everything I wanted to but whatever.

And yeah, they shifted the goalposts after but what can you expect.

edit - I did say 2nd round whoops

I heard the call (first time I flipped on Felger and Mazz in months as I usually listen to SIRIUS). I thought you did a great job! took them to task. Well done.

 

[Zeus]

Right well that's what they did after i hung up, started looking at what the Ravens got from those trade down picks in a vacuum (results oriented bias) which really means nothing in the context of arguing against trading down.

In a draft trade scenario the draft selections are irrelevant to the statistical likelihood of a good pick before hand in that slot. So it's inaccurate to say "trading down is a poor strategy x% of the time" or "a good strategy x% of the time." Trading down is a good strategy when in nets you a return that is of greater value. That value is measured by the amount of time that a pick turns out to be a hit. As it turns out the % of the time that draft picks hit on the picks we got back from the Vikings outweighs the % of the time pick we gave them hits. ("hit" is given a more nuanced numerical value than this obviously, and it's not just pro bowl player v non-pro bowler but you get the idea)

That is a separate question from whether or not Cordarrelle Patterson is the right pick. In fairness to Felger he's already conceded that he can't very well get on the radio and say "Collins sucks Belichick's an idiot" so he has to find another angle to go at and this is the one he's chosen. This narrative works because "Trading down for 'value'" when most people interpret 'value' to mean "bargain" or cheap and then ranting about how BB thinks he's the smartest guy ever or whatever seems like a passable narrative, but it falls apart when you look at what he's actually doing . So then it gets a little exposed and he reverts to the actual picks the ravens made after I hung up which is shifting to talent evaluation. It's just super obvious that they're looking for something to complain about for the sake of it (Mazz might actually be duped by Felger though).

I heard the call - thought you did fine. And I agree that the probablitistic approach you describe above is the right way to think about the problem.

I don't usually mind Felger (Mazz is another matter - wienie) but thought that he was either willfully stupid or intellectually dishonest. No doubt this part of the show gets tiresome.

 

[Froob]

what did felger and mazz say last year? "What the hell are the pats doing? They can't be giving up key draft picks to move up the board?" "You're absolutely right Mike. and how about Josh Beckett? What a douche does he not care about his team? I know he's not on the red sox but.."

 

[FCB02062]

I was hoping you were gonna bottom line it with something like and for all this Ozzie being so great at drafting talk Belichick has owned him the last three years in the draft.

But isn't the playoff record 2-1 in favor of baltimore? Isn't that what really matters? they've managed to draft/sign a defense that puts fear into Brady's eyes while the pats defense can't stop joe flacco when it has to stop him?????

 

[makoute]

what did felger and mazz say last year? "What the hell are the pats doing? They can't be giving up key draft picks to move up the board?" "You're absolutely right Mike. and how about Josh Beckett? What a douche does he not care about his team? I know he's not on the red sox but.."

In all fairness to them, I think they really liked the Pats trading up last year.

 

[JMC00]

In all fairness to them, I think they really liked the Pats trading up last year.

massarotti despises the Hightower trade up. He doesn't think Hightower is any good.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I originally didn't like the move, but with the new information on Collins I'm fine with it they got 2 WRs, pass rush and lb coverage help, and a CB4 to push Cole and Ras-IR further down the depth chart which is only a good thing (Boldin on Cole nightmares can stop).

Overall they filled needs and made the usual wtf pick. Can't argue with it at this point.

They only really missed out on Hunter, Patterson, and Woods. Probably only wanted Woods out of this group since Hunter is raw as hell and Patterson isn't smart enough.

If Hunter, Patterson or Woods wind up as the next WR superstars, then it's a loss. If Boyce winds up as good as them (or better), as well as Collins and Ryan, it's a win. I like the Pats chances though I think Patterson will wind up being very special in the Vikings offense. Perfect replacement for Percy Harvin.

 

[DarrylS]

The more credibility/attention that we give these two assclowns, the longer shelf life they have..

This is just like Borges, the more contrarian he became the more attention he got.. which is how success is often measured.

Change the station..