Breer on Brady/Manning and rookie QB contracts

[BradyManny]

Interesting angle on the Brady/Manning situation I hadn't thought of before:

Brady, Manning watching a rookie? - Extra Points - Boston.com

Aside from the thought of comparing their deals to whatever deal Bradford gets, the other interesting point I found was:

What's interesting here, in applying those figures, is what the elder Manning and Brady would put on the line by suiting up for the 16-game 2010 season under their current contractual conditions. Manning is set to make $15.8 million in 2010, so absent a deal, the risk seems to be $29.2-34.2 million. Brady will make just $3.5 million, meaning his risk is a whopping $41.5-46.5 million in playing his deal out.

It's a huge risk - but I don't think anyone thinks Brady would ever forego playing football under any circumstances.

On the flip side, I think the team is taking a huge risk, themselves. If Brady has a season like last year, he'll command $20 million annually. But there's the chance - with the weapons they have surrounded him with this offseason - that he has an even more efficient & productive year. What will he command then? If he puts up production even near the record setting 2007, won't his deal have to top Mannings? What is it then? $25 million a year?

I guess I don't get the hold up - even with the uncertainty of the CBA, the most prudent thing to do is lock him up now - before he comes back another year removed from surgery and with improved weapons and raises his stock even more. And I do put most of the blame on Kraft. I highly doubt Brady's demands are outrageous given what we know of him in the past. Just hand the guy a blank check and let him use his discretion in filling it out.

 

[Rob0729]

Apparently Breer thinks the $3 million bonus he got this year is funny money or something. Brady got $6.5 million this year. I think Manning didn't get a bonus, but straight salary this year. Granted his point doesn't change much, but when he doesn't put all the facts in his article his whole article loses credibility. But as Miguel pointed out in another thread, Breer either doesn't realize or forgot that Brady got a $3 million bonus or he chooses to ignore it for some reason like to make Brady's salary look even smaller for 2010 for dramatic effect.

Also, one of the reasons Brady's money is so low this year is because the Pats didn't backload his contract like they did with Manning. Manning took a bigger risk of his skills deteriorating or a career threatening injury with a long term backloaded deal while Brady really didn't. Although Brady's contract was smaller per year.

 

[BradyManny]

Apparently Breer thinks the $3 million bonus he got this year is funny money or something. Brady got $6.5 million this year. I think Manning didn't get a bonus, but straight salary this year. Granted his point doesn't change much, but when he doesn't put all the facts in his article his whole article loses credibility. But as Miguel pointed out in another thread, Breer either doesn't realize or forgot that Brady got a $3 million bonus or he chooses to ignore it for some reason like to make Brady's salary look even smaller for 2010 for dramatic effect.

Also, one of the reasons Brady's money is so low this year is because the Pats didn't backload his contract like they did with Manning. Manning took a bigger risk of his skills deteriorating or a career threatening injury with a long term backloaded deal while Brady really didn't. Although Brady's contract was smaller per year.

True - I don't think the $3 million is much of a factor.

As for backloading or not - the point is, Brady has been underpaid for quite some time now. When he signed his deal, he took less than market value, no doubt - and that market has increased significantly. You can say, tough luck for him - or not, its not like $$ is an issue for him, maybe he could care less.

 

[Rob0729]

True - I don't think the $3 million is much of a factor.

As for backloading or not - the point is, Brady has been underpaid for quite some time now. When he signed his deal, he took less than market value, no doubt - and that market has increased significantly. You can say, tough luck for him - or not, its not like $$ is an issue for him, maybe he could care less.

The $3 million doesn't change the overall point Breer is trying to express, but it is shoddy reporting on his part not to include it.

I agree Brady has been underpaid for some time, but it was his choice. I won't blame him to go after top dollar this time, but he specifically said he wasn't going to take top dollar with his last contract.

 

[BradyManny]

The $3 million doesn't change the overall point Breer is trying to express, but it is shoddy reporting on his part not to include it.

I agree Brady has been underpaid for some time, but it was his choice. I won't blame him to go after top dollar this time, but he specifically said he wasn't going to take top dollar with his last contract.

Right, I agree on both accounts.

If I were running a business, and I had a certain employee out-producing his contract his entire career, I wouldn't nickel and dime him when his contract comes up. I'm not saying Kraft is doing this - merely saying, his mindset needs to take into the account that, whether Brady agreed to it or not, he has been receiving a huge return on his investment in #12 up to this point.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Interesting angle on the Brady/Manning situation I hadn't thought of before:

Brady, Manning watching a rookie? - Extra Points - Boston.com

Aside from the thought of comparing their deals to whatever deal Bradford gets, the other interesting point I found was:



It's a huge risk - but I don't think anyone thinks Brady would ever forego playing football under any circumstances.

On the flip side, I think the team is taking a huge risk, themselves. If Brady has a season like last year, he'll command $20 million annually. But there's the chance - with the weapons they have surrounded him with this offseason - that he has an even more efficient & productive year. What will he command then? If he puts up production even near the record setting 2007, won't his deal have to top Mannings? What is it then? $25 million a year?

I guess I don't get the hold up - even with the uncertainty of the CBA, the most prudent thing to do is lock him up now - before he comes back another year removed from surgery and with improved weapons and raises his stock even more. And I do put most of the blame on Kraft. I highly doubt Brady's demands are outrageous given what we know of him in the past. Just hand the guy a blank check and let him use his discretion in filling it out.

Thanks for catching that link. Some great comments in this thread!

This whole thing is a complicated, big bucks negotiation with neither side wanting to leave money on the table. Each side has bargaining chips.

Brady obviously brings his HOF talent and attitude plus an enormous amount of New England fan support. He's amply proven that he is "still Tom Brady."

Kraft knows that Brady would likely be reluctant to risk playing this season without a contract and the big guaranteed number that we all feel he will continue to earn. He also has the threat of the Franchise Tag, which I don't think anyone wants to see used but which is in the CBA to give owners some leverage in the age of Free Agency.

None of us are close enough to either party to know them well, if at all (at least I'm not). That doesn't stop any of us (myself included) from thinking we know something about them. The CW is that Brady is unselfish and will take a small haircut to stay with Belichick and his winning ways and that Kraft is a tough negotiator who isn't likely to hand out a "Thanks for the Memories" contract.

A comment was made earlier in this thread that Kraft has realized an excellent return on his investment in Tom Brady, which is clearly the case in terms of Franchise Value and fan engagement. But, I don't think that will, or even should, play much of a part in what he now no doubt sees as a deal about the future and not the past.

The unspoken presence at the negotiating table is the fan support that drives a lot of the value of the Krafts' investment.

Losing Brady, forcing him to risk playing without a new contract this year or, unthinkably, forcing him to play a under the Franchise tag would definitely be a negative for Bob Kraft. In fact, losing him in such a way that Brady is perceived as having been treated badly would define his relationship with the fans for years to come. I don't think that's a path down which he wants to go.

Anyway, lots of moving parts. I have no idea how it will turn out.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Breer is being deliberately obtuse in ignoring Brady's roster bonus as well as failing to dig deeper for the reasons it's so difficult to do an extention under an expiring CBA. Or even acknowledge when he's been corrected for misrepresenting the entire situation as a result.

A long term Brady or Manning extension can't be reasonably constructed because neither had fully guaranteed salaries in 2009 and neither team had sufficient cap space at the close of the 2009 season to accommodate future "fully" guaranteed salaries (another of the pesky rule details in an expiring CBA). Ergo the only way to get extensions done in the present circumstance is to pay them in excess of $40M in signing bonus. Given most teams don't clear that in net profit (operating income) in a given season (Irsay had to sell his personal memorabelia collection in 2004 to fully fund Peyton's $34.5M signing bonus), that would create a cash flow problem that would hamstring them in getting other deals done for deserving players perhaps for a couple of seasons... It would also undercut the leagues collective bargaining position (which is revenue is down). Short of borrowing the money or paying it out of pocket (either of which is generally bad business), not sure what these teams should be expected to do, particularly given the fact that they don't know what the cap will be going forward, although it appears to be a given that contrary to what Gene Upshaw predicted, there will be one...

Signing bonus can only be amortized over 5 years at present, so if these two want 6 year deals as i assume they would, you're tied in to $8-9M against the cap for the next 5 seasons over and above salary. Once bonus is amortized it can never be reallocated, so you lose flexibility. Under normal circumstances these two could ink deals that relied more on guaranteed option or roster bonus and guaranteed salary. Right now they can't.

And while Brady certainly left money on the table, it wasn't that much. He had two years left on his deal when he extended in 2005. Manning was a franchise tagged due to be UFA when he signed his deal in 2004. Brady wasn't in line for a market deal because he was still two years away from reaching that market. The difference in the AAV of their deals was roughly $10M vs. $14M. The first 4 take home AAV was a lot closer, with Tom only falling behind because an extension couldn't be managed once the CBA opt out took effect in 2008 and his deal wasn't backloaded for bragging rights like Mannings (which was originally 9 years $126M with 2 voidable years in 2011-2012). Brady probably left a million or so on the table because by his own admission after taxes it's not nearly that consequential and he knew the money would be spread over the rest of the roster here because that's they way they roll. Any remaining difference was where they were in the market and who their agent was (Condon uses each QB deal he secures to market himself to the next QB in line to be drafted #1, Yee tends to do what works best for his client).

I sure hope when he shows up on time for TC people can just let him get on with the season and quit fretting for him... He's a big boy and he seems better equipped to manage and balance expectations than his fan base or the media.

And again, for perspective, Eli is the current market record holder at just under $16M per AAV. I don't think in the present circumstance either Brady or Manning will top $20 (which btw was what the media was predicting for Eli...). I think they will both come in somewhere between $16-18MAAV with more than 50% of it guaranteed. The devil is in how to do that short of cripling cash flow (see Irsay's remarks in hindsight about his own growing concern over the need to be able to sign up and coming players in case you think he hasn't had second thoughts about his earlier statement), and the answer may have to be do it next December or January when you have a better handle on where the CBA is going or in the spring when you either have one or you're probably operating under provisional ownership rules to avoid a lockout. Worst case scenario is a lockout, but then again no one is going anywhere during one of those and the owners won't come back after one absent a deal that suits them and includes the franchise tag. In which case they will likely both be exclusive tagged while their deal get hammered out.

 

[Jackson 2]

Breer is being deliberately obtuse in ignoring Brady's roster bonus as well as failing to dig deeper for the reasons it's so difficult to do an extention under an expiring CBA. Or even acknowledge when he's been corrected for misrepresenting the entire situation as a result.

A long term Brady or Manning extension can't be reasonably constructed because neither had fully guaranteed salaries in 2009 and neither team had sufficient cap space at the close of the 2009 season to accommodate future "fully" guaranteed salaries (another of the pesky rule details in an expiring CBA). Ergo the only way to get extensions done in the present circumstance is to pay them in excess of $40M in signing bonus. Given most teams don't clear that in net profit (operating income) in a given season (Irsay had to sell his personal memorabelia collection in 2004 to fully fund Peyton's $34.5M signing bonus), that would create a cash flow problem that would hamstring them in getting other deals done for deserving players perhaps for a couple of seasons... It would also undercut the leagues collective bargaining position (which is revenue is down). Short of borrowing the money or paying it out of pocket (either of which is generally bad business), not sure what these teams should be expected to do, particularly given the fact that they don't know what the cap will be going forward, although it appears to be a given that contrary to what Gene Upshaw predicted, there will be one...

Signing bonus can only be amortized over 5 years at present, so if these two want 6 year deals as i assume they would, you're tied in to $8-9M against the cap for the next 5 seasons over and above salary. Once bonus is amortized it can never be reallocated, so you lose flexibility. Under normal circumstances these two could ink deals that relied more on guaranteed option or roster bonus and guaranteed salary. Right now they can't.

And while Brady certainly left money on the table, it wasn't that much. He had two years left on his deal when he extended in 2005. Manning was a franchise tagged due to be UFA when he signed his deal in 2004. Brady wasn't in line for a market deal because he was still two years away from reaching that market. The difference in the AAV of their deals was roughly $10M vs. $14M. The first 4 take home AAV was a lot closer, with Tom only falling behind because an extension couldn't be managed once the CBA opt out took effect in 2008 and his deal wasn't backloaded for bragging rights like Mannings (which was originally 9 years $126M with 2 voidable years in 2011-2012). Brady probably left a million or so on the table because by his own admission after taxes it's not nearly that consequential and he knew the money would be spread over the rest of the roster here because that's they way they roll. Any remaining difference was where they were in the market and who their agent was (Condon uses each QB deal he secures to market himself to the next QB in line to be drafted #1, Yee tends to do what works best for his client).

I sure hope when he shows up on time for TC people can just let him get on with the season and quit fretting for him... He's a big boy and he seems better equipped to manage and balance expectations than his fan base or the media.

And again, for perspective, Eli is the current market record holder at just under $16M per AAV. I don't think in the present circumstance either Brady or Manning will top $20 (which btw was what the media was predicting for Eli...). I think they will both come in somewhere between $16-18MAAV with more than 50% of it guaranteed. The devil is in how to do that short of cripling cash flow (see Irsay's remarks in hindsight about his own growing concern over the need to be able to sign up and coming players in case you think he hasn't had second thoughts about his earlier statement), and the answer may have to be do it next December or January when you have a better handle on where the CBA is going or in the spring when you either have one or you're probably operating under provisional ownership rules to avoid a lockout. Worst case scenario is a lockout, but then again no one is going anywhere during one of those and the owners won't come back after one absent a deal that suits them and includes the franchise tag. In which case they will likely both be exclusive tagged while their deal get hammered out.

Like a lot of us here, I've become suspicious of lots of media members' motives over the past few years. Breer's a guy I used to have a lot of respct for, even when I happened to be in disagreement with his opinions. There was a time when I thought his credibility was beyond question. Since his return from Dallas, I sense a different type of guy, more of a Borges/Felger, but certainly not as intentionally outrageous. Question: Do you think he ignored the roster bonus piece on purpose or do you think he simply neglected to include it?

 

[Holy Diver]

Does anyone REALLY think Tom Brady give two poops about his salary?


This page should settle that debate: Gisele Bundchen's salary: USD 28,000,000 per year - Salary Income Money


while I typed this, she made about $500.00

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

This page should settle that debate: Gisele Bundchen's salary: USD 28,000,000 per year - Salary Income Money


while I typed this, she made about $500.00

I, for one, am available as a boy toy

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It's been pointed out to him multiple times by those who comment on his articles and by both Miguel and fellow capologist Ian.

Breer is supposed to be the NFL reporter/columnist for the Herald. Lately he talks more about the Pats in the Globe and sports other than football on his twitter. I think he came back from Dallas via TSN thinking he had arrived (while I assumed he had bombed nationally...). Reminds me of players who've had a lot of undeserved smoke blown up their skirts by some blowhard coach. He's still just a young wannabe with a less than solid foundation within his own industry. I think the whole Globe crew is pretty full of themselves (his tweeting from camp was a clear example) and yet so uninformed, naive or just plain out of their league - not to mention operating in a leadership void - that it's just another sad commentary on the coverage this team has received in the last decade by a bunch of wannabe mediots looking for a way to get ahead...Face it, Breer is senior staffer on the football beat these days and two years ago he was blogging for the Metro West...

I didn't have much hope for Rappaport coming directly out of covering college ball, but he's impressed me in his second season with his drive and determination. Not quite Reiss but closer to that than any of the rest of them. He not only gets the stories ahead of the pack, he's thoughtful in his presentation and analysis. I hope he's in it for the long haul, unlike so many of his contemporaries...who either think they've arrived or they're hell bent to. It's all about the benjamins, and those come from TV and Radio and anscillary media gigs.

How pathetic is it that in a major market with a team that's been to 4 superbowls in the last 9 seasons a plagerizer with an agenda - Ron Borges holds the Pro Football HOF ballot and the sad fact is no one else is remotely qualified to...LOL And believe me when the time comes that will cost this team of the decade busts in Canton...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Does anyone REALLY think Tom Brady give two poops about his salary?


This page should settle that debate: Gisele Bundchen's salary: USD 28,000,000 per year - Salary Income Money


while I typed this, she made about $500.00

Why shouldn't he, too, be paid what he is worth? Is the logic that because one person in a couple earns what the market says they deserve that the other shouldn't? I just don't understand that.

They are both entertainers in businesses where their values depreciate significantly with every passing year. Individually, they have extraordinary talents that, together, give them a chance to build generational wealth, creating legacies that will last for decades and enable them to dedicate significant resources to issues and causes that are meaningful to them. Why shouldn't they both get every Dollar or Real that they are worth?

I just don't buy the sentimentality that says that Tom Brady should "take one for the team," beyond a modest (say, five percent) reduction to save cap room, for whatever reason, let alone that his spouse makes a boatload of money.

 

[vyrago]

Why shouldn't he, too, be paid what he is worth? Is the logic that because one person in a couple earns what the market says they deserve that the other shouldn't? I just don't understand that.

They are both entertainers in businesses where their values depreciate significantly with every passing year. Individually, they have extraordinary talents that, together, give them a chance to build generational wealth, creating legacies that will last for decades and enable them to dedicate significant resources to issues and causes that are meaningful to them. Why shouldn't they both get every Dollar or Real that they are worth?

I just don't buy the sentimentality that says that Tom Brady should "take one for the team," beyond a modest (say, five percent) reduction to save cap room, for whatever reason, let alone that his spouse makes a boatload of money.

Agreed. This is the kind of reasoning that kept women in a salary ghetto for years. Employers used the husband's salary as an excuse to not pay the wife what she deserved because, after all, she had someone to support her, whereas the men who were her salary peers were supporting a family and so needed to make more money.
This was an egregious wrong that has to some extent been corrected after much protest and campaigning. It shouldn't be repeated with the sexes reversed.

 

[Miguel]

AdamJT13: Matthew Stafford's contract

should be mandatory reading for anyone who thinks that Brady and Manning will be comparing their next contracts to Bradford's.

 

[patfanken]

Breer is being deliberately obtuse in ignoring Brady's roster bonus as well as failing to dig deeper for the reasons it's so difficult to do an extention under an expiring CBA. Or even acknowledge when he's been corrected for misrepresenting the entire situation as a result.

A long term Brady or Manning extension can't be reasonably constructed because neither had fully guaranteed salaries in 2009 and neither team had sufficient cap space at the close of the 2009 season to accommodate future "fully" guaranteed salaries (another of the pesky rule details in an expiring CBA). Ergo the only way to get extensions done in the present circumstance is to pay them in excess of $40M in signing bonus. Given most teams don't clear that in net profit (operating income) in a given season (Irsay had to sell his personal memorabelia collection in 2004 to fully fund Peyton's $34.5M signing bonus), that would create a cash flow problem that would hamstring them in getting other deals done for deserving players perhaps for a couple of seasons... It would also undercut the leagues collective bargaining position (which is revenue is down). Short of borrowing the money or paying it out of pocket (either of which is generally bad business), not sure what these teams should be expected to do, particularly given the fact that they don't know what the cap will be going forward, although it appears to be a given that contrary to what Gene Upshaw predicted, there will be one...

Signing bonus can only be amortized over 5 years at present, so if these two want 6 year deals as i assume they would, you're tied in to $8-9M against the cap for the next 5 seasons over and above salary. Once bonus is amortized it can never be reallocated, so you lose flexibility. Under normal circumstances these two could ink deals that relied more on guaranteed option or roster bonus and guaranteed salary. Right now they can't.

And while Brady certainly left money on the table, it wasn't that much. He had two years left on his deal when he extended in 2005. Manning was a franchise tagged due to be UFA when he signed his deal in 2004. Brady wasn't in line for a market deal because he was still two years away from reaching that market. The difference in the AAV of their deals was roughly $10M vs. $14M. The first 4 take home AAV was a lot closer, with Tom only falling behind because an extension couldn't be managed once the CBA opt out took effect in 2008 and his deal wasn't backloaded for bragging rights like Mannings (which was originally 9 years $126M with 2 voidable years in 2011-2012). Brady probably left a million or so on the table because by his own admission after taxes it's not nearly that consequential and he knew the money would be spread over the rest of the roster here because that's they way they roll. Any remaining difference was where they were in the market and who their agent was (Condon uses each QB deal he secures to market himself to the next QB in line to be drafted #1, Yee tends to do what works best for his client).

I sure hope when he shows up on time for TC people can just let him get on with the season and quit fretting for him... He's a big boy and he seems better equipped to manage and balance expectations than his fan base or the media.

And again, for perspective, Eli is the current market record holder at just under $16M per AAV. I don't think in the present circumstance either Brady or Manning will top $20 (which btw was what the media was predicting for Eli...). I think they will both come in somewhere between $16-18MAAV with more than 50% of it guaranteed. The devil is in how to do that short of cripling cash flow (see Irsay's remarks in hindsight about his own growing concern over the need to be able to sign up and coming players in case you think he hasn't had second thoughts about his earlier statement), and the answer may have to be do it next December or January when you have a better handle on where the CBA is going or in the spring when you either have one or you're probably operating under provisional ownership rules to avoid a lockout. Worst case scenario is a lockout, but then again no one is going anywhere during one of those and the owners won't come back after one absent a deal that suits them and includes the franchise tag. In which case they will likely both be exclusive tagged while their deal get hammered out.

Great response MO. Right on the money.

 

[patfanken]

It's been pointed out to him multiple times by those who comment on his articles and by both Miguel and fellow capologist Ian.

Breer is supposed to be the NFL reporter/columnist for the Herald. Lately he talks more about the Pats in the Globe and sports other than football on his twitter. I think he came back from Dallas via TSN thinking he had arrived (while I assumed he had bombed nationally...). Reminds me of players who've had a lot of undeserved smoke blown up their skirts by some blowhard coach. He's still just a young wannabe with a less than solid foundation within his own industry. I think the whole Globe crew is pretty full of themselves (his tweeting from camp was a clear example) and yet so uninformed, naive or just plain out of their league - not to mention operating in a leadership void - that it's just another sad commentary on the coverage this team has received in the last decade by a bunch of wannabe mediots looking for a way to get ahead...Face it, Breer is senior staffer on the football beat these days and two years ago he was blogging for the Metro West...

I didn't have much hope for Rappaport coming directly out of covering college ball, but he's impressed me in his second season with his drive and determination. Not quite Reiss but closer to that than any of the rest of them. He not only gets the stories ahead of the pack, he's thoughtful in his presentation and analysis. I hope he's in it for the long haul, unlike so many of his contemporaries...who either think they've arrived or they're hell bent to. It's all about the benjamins, and those come from TV and Radio and anscillary media gigs.

How pathetic is it that in a major market with a team that's been to 4 superbowls in the last 9 seasons a plagerizer with an agenda - Ron Borges holds the Pro Football HOF ballot and the sad fact is no one else is remotely qualified to...LOL And believe me when the time comes that will cost this team of the decade busts in Canton...

Unfortunately Breer is symptomatic of the current crop of so called reporters in the media. These are guys who grade their stories by counting how many people they piss off and how many times they called to be on TV or radio. We are living in a time where every time a reader comments calling the reporter an uninformed idiot is a positive.

The fact is whether the story is accurate or not, isn't the goal. The true goal is to illicit a reaction. Does anyone REALLY think Breer just forgot to mention the $3MM roster bonus????.

Mo has clearly pointed out that Brady, though he's made less than Manning over the years, it hasn't been a whole lot less. This "poor underpaid Tom Brady" thing is much more mirage than reality. Yet I'm sure we will see or hear somewhere else how Brady is only making $3.5MM this season as if it were the unvarnished truth.

 

[A.C Vegas]

That is one thing that cracks me up about the media, agent and owners they all use what ever numbers they want to make there point. anti pats bias "brady is only making 3 million". Want to seem big tell everyone you got you client 41 million guarenteed but it's really closer to 30. need to make a big score for a client then you show off the real numbers the ones you ignored in the first place.

I know most deserve the money they make but am I the only one that wish all that crap didn't matter and they just played the games

 

[jmt57]

That is one thing that cracks me up about the media, agent and owners they all use what ever numbers they want to make there point. anti pats bias "brady is only making 3 million".

Another part of that is that regardless of whether the $3 miilion or $6.5 million figure is used, all the stories completely disregard the fact he averaged $10 million per year over his last contract - which at the time it was signed though it was indeed less than Manning's contract, was still one of the biggest contracts in the NFL.

In other words though they don't go so far as to outright lie, the figures are twisted in order to create a story. Rather than using facts, figures and statistics to reach a conclusion, they take a point that will create controversy, and then look for numbers and partial quotes to support that theory.

 

[seidenberg3]

inclusive with his endorsements Tom earn $20 million per year

 

[PatsFanSince74]

That is one thing that cracks me up about the media, agent and owners they all use what ever numbers they want to make there point. anti pats bias "brady is only making 3 million". Want to seem big tell everyone you got you client 41 million guarenteed but it's really closer to 30. need to make a big score for a client then you show off the real numbers the ones you ignored in the first place.
...

Yes. And all the more so because what TB or anyone was paid in the past is irrelevant to the contract he is negotiating for the future. Brady should seek and receive market value for his skills, based on a reasonable perception of their value over the next five or so seasons. Brady has no obligation to take a hometown discount because he may have taken one in the past and the Krafts have no obligation to pay him more because he may have taken less than he was worth before or because he performed better than expected.

What does Bob Kraft, out of whose pocket nearly all of this money ultimately comes, think that Tom Brady is worth given the quality of his work and the role he will play in improving the value of Kraft's Franchise? What, in terms of (real) Guarantees and Upside does Brady think he is worth for the final years of his career? Ultimately it comes down to two numbers that are presumably close enough to a meeting point that negotiations can proceed.

Some extraneous factors will figure in at the margins of the discussion, pushing the "meeting point" a few dollars in one direction or another. For Brady, it's probably staying with a system and an organization he knows well and in which he knows how to succeed. For Kraft, it's probably not wanting to have to risk the damage to his relations with the fans and community, who drive a lot of his Franchise value, by losing as beloved and popular a player as Brady. But, in the end, I don't think either of those will outweigh two perceptions of fair value and whether they can converge.