Brace yourself for Shock: Could the Patriots go WR in the 1st round?

[Mark Morse]

I would think the free agency period would dictate the possibility of WR in the 1st round. If we lose Edelman and we have tried to unload Amendola, then WR would be a distant possibility.

The only WR that I would consider at #29 is Brandin Cooks. He fits the profile of speed and quickness (3 cone and SS the Patriots are fond of). There is depth at both DL and TE. I could see the Pats waiting to take those later in the draft.

 

[rookBoston]

WR would be a shock to me in the 1st. Not because adding a high ceiling player doesn't make sensee. But by all accounts, depth at WR is epic. And we're already young at the position. So, both value and need are contrary.

If you believe the WR class is crazy-deep, and I do, then I suppose BB would choose to wait until the 4th or 5th round and pick over the leftovers at the position, expecting someone he's interested in has slipped... a guy that in most years would have gone in the 2nd round but got passed over because all the teams with need at WR had already taken someone at the top of their draft and wont have the courage to draft WR-WR in consecutive rounds, given other needs on their board.

Taking a guy like Jason Abbrederis who could be a 2nd/3rd rounder in the 5th... or Tevin Reese in the 6th... that smells more like a Belichickian strategy than landing on Odell Beckham or Mike Evans in the 1st. In a few years, people will wonder "how did the Pats land a WR with that kind of pure talent in the 6th round?"... and the answer is because BB is just damn smart.

My current bet is that BB trades back with Tampa Bay so they can take Derrik Carr at 29, and takes a guy like DT Timmy Jernigan or OG Xavier Sua-Filo at 38... a big body to give the team more heft on the interior. And, for poetic justice, let's just say with the extra pick he gets for trading back, he lands a quality WR who dropped for no real reason except excess Supply.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

- With the exception of Mike Evans or Kelvin Benjamin

Bravo. I agree completely. Every single point, and especially the highlighted ones.

I'm sorry, you two like Kelvin Benjamin? He's nothing but size. He won't separate in the NFL. He's lumbers.


I'm ok with a WR depending on how free agency goes, and if it's the right one.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I would think the free agency period would dictate the possibility of WR in the 1st round. If we lose Edelman and we have tried to unload Amendola, then WR would be a distant possibility.

The only WR that I would consider at #29 is Brandin Cooks. He fits the profile of speed and quickness (3 cone and SS the Patriots are fond of). There is depth at both DL and TE. I could see the Pats waiting to take those later in the draft.

Have you watched the film on Cooks?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Here's the scenario. In free agency, Julian Edelman is signed away for a 7m+ per year contract. We all panic, because we know the Pats have been shopping Amendola around and have gotten no takers. Furthermore, we can't move Mallet. And so that high to mid 2nd rounder never materializes.

We don't actually know that. Saying his name "has been floated" is not the same thing as saying "the Patriots have floated" or "the Patriots have been shopping."

 

[DaBruinz]

It has never happened before in the BB regime, but when you get a feel for the prospects available in this year's draft, the unthinkable might just happen. The Patriots might go WR in Round 1. Yes, I said it. Round 1.

At first blush, it is an unthinkable occurrence. And yet, I remember a time I thought BB would never draft a linebacker in the 1st round, just because it had never been done before. BB shocked us by drafting Mayo high in the 1st round in 2008.

BB also has not been shy about drafting wide receivers, in just about every other draft, BB has taken a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round. However he has not yet ever expended a 1st round pick on a wideout. The most famous incident would be his trade down to bypass Dez Bryant in the 1st. Then again although Dez Bryant had 1st round talent he also had character question marks which might have induced BB to pass.

This year the Patriots have two clear cut needs - DL and TE. However the depth at DL and TE is such that it becomes doubtful that they will drop all the way down to us in the 1st. And might be gone by our pick in the second. So what do we do? If the value is right, IE the right player is there, we might pick a 1st round talent at WR instead of taking a guy who is valued more as a 2nd round DE or DT.

And the reason we'd go for WR in the 1st is to hedge against the risk that there are no viable TE choices available by our 2nd round pick. By going wideout in the 1st, that allows us to take a development prospect at TE later in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round. Because it is quite POSSIBLE that all of Ebron, ASJ, Amaro, Niklas, etc. are gone by pick #62. And after that you have a pretty big dropoff.

There is also the Julian Edelman/Amendola situation. If Edelman prices himself out of our market, ie he signs a big 7m+ per deal with another team - we LOSE our leading receiver in production last season, and our best kick returner last season. ON TOP of that, Amendola is a 50/50 proposition to even play in 75% of the games next season. Which means we COULD BE in huge trouble at the WR position!

Therefore it makes sense to sign a 1st round WR, if the talent, and the draft falls in a certain way. Because a 1st round receiver is more likely to make an impact early, which is what we will need. I'm not saying this is the most attractive scenario, because MOST rookie WRs take around 3 years to blossom into their prime. However, our hand might be forced.

That is why I would like to see the Patriots sign a veteran WR in free agency. A guy like a Golden Tate or a Hakeem Nicks to a short deal with not too many bonuses to hedge against the loss of either Julian Edelman to free agency or Amendola to injury. I am not sure that Brady could survive with a wideout core comprised entirely of young bucks - Dobson, Thomkins, and Boyce. Not to mention that Dobson's health and availability have now come into question due to a stress fracture in his foot that may/or may not require offseason surgery!!

WOW. So many erroneous assumptions by you.

1) The depth on the DL and at TE in this draft is actually pretty good. I would say you really have been out of touch to think otherwise.

2) The Patriots just spent 2 draft picks and had a UDFA work out pretty well,. That, in and of itself is a reason NOT to draft a WR.

3) Most people weren't shocked when the Pats drafted Mayo in the 1st round. You might have been, but you aren't most people.

4) Edelman isn't signing a $7M a year deal. You clearly have missed that other, more productive WRs just signed for $5M/year.

5) Your correlation of Amendola playing or not to the need of drafting someone makes no sense. Amendola is a SLOT receiver. You don't draft a SLOT receiver in the 1st round.

6) Even if Dobson needs surgery on his foot, he'd be ready by Training Camp.

Closing by suggesting players the Pats won't draft and who are more likely off the board than any TE or DL that people have discussed really doesn't help your case what so ever.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I'm sorry, you two like Kelvin Benjamin? He's nothing but size. He won't separate in the NFL. He's lumbers.


I'm ok with a WR depending on how free agency goes, and if it's the right one.

I'm not a fan of Benjamin, my point was he possesses something we don't currently have, size and physicality on the outside. Evans I would certainly consider at 29 (although he wont be there), but I wouldn't touch Benjamin.

 

[doesntmatter1]

I would love if we go wr, preferably Allen Robinson, at 29. A clear number one guy with stats to back it up. I feel that BB undervalues wr and picks them by combine numbers. How else can I explain Taylor Price and the whole Baldwin=Julio. I feel that Boyce was picked by his combine numbers as well because his film wasn't impressive.

I highly doubt we go this route but I do feel our offense needs to change drastically. Despite how our running game looked against Denver(they shut down Seattle's Lynch also), I was pretty satisfied with the Blount led running game. It is our passing game that consistently fails against physical teams in the playoffs. A healthy Dobson and Thompkins may be the answer but both of them imo can be upgraded in this upcoming draft if we go this direction.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I'm not a fan of Benjamin, my point was he possesses something we don't currently have, size and physicality on the outside. Evans I would certainly consider at 29 (although he wont be there), but I wouldn't touch Benjamin.

Ok.

I would love if we go wr, preferably Allen Robinson, at 29. A clear number one guy with stats to back it up. I feel that BB undervalues wr and picks them by combine numbers. How else can I explain Taylor Price and the whole Baldwin=Julio. I feel that Boyce was picked by his combine numbers as well because his film wasn't impressive.

I highly doubt we go this route but I do feel our offense needs to change drastically. Despite how our running game looked against Denver(they shut down Seattle's Lynch also), I was pretty satisfied with the Blount led running game. It is our passing game that consistently fails against physical teams in the playoffs. A healthy Dobson and Thompkins may be the answer but both of them imo can be upgraded in this upcoming draft if we go this direction.

Amen brother.

Louis Riddick ‏@LRiddickESPN Feb 26
Allen Robinson - very efficient feet at line, and then at break point. Impressive given size.

Louis Riddick ‏@LRiddickESPN Feb 26
His stats should have been MUCH better. Numerous big plays missed due to poor/late throws by QB

Shane P. Hallam ‏@ShanePHallam Feb 23
One thing PSU WR Allen Robinson does real well is track the ball and high point it. If you put him in position to do that, can be real good

 

[upstater1]

I'd be happy if the Patriots went with a WR in rd 2 or 3. This is the kind of year that you'll find 1st round numbers for WRs anywhere from picks 50-90. I think they'll be all gone by the 4th round.

The last 3 to go may be Martavis Bryant, Jeff Janis and Donte Moncrief. After that, you're not going to find any big guys who can run a 4.4.

It's such a deep draft for WRs that the Patriots should rightly be thinking about taking one of the many big guys who can run in the second or third rounds, depending on who they prefer.

If you're really so confident in Dobson, Boyce and Thompkins being the 3 wideouts, then I guess this isn't siuch a good idea. I'm not confident at all. Boyce could be the next Bethel Johnson. Dobson could have injury problems. And Thompkins just doesn't have much experience. In college or the pros. When you can grab a 6'3 220 pounder who flies like the wind in the 2nd or 3rd, you do it, especially if you are full of question marks at the position.

 

[patchick]

There's been a lot of good debate and differing viewpoints in this thread, and you know what? I agree with just about all of them. A summary, as I see it:

ANTI-ROUND 1 WR ARGUMENTS:

1. Leaguewide, WR is the hardest position to project from college to the pros -- and projecting success as a PATRIOTS receiver is even harder. That level of risk and uncertainty makes it an unwise use of your biggest chunk of draft capital.

2. The WR class is quite deep, and there's almost no consensus (here or elsewhere) about how they rank after Watkins, Evans and Lee.

3. The Patriots already have a stable of athletically talented but unproven young WRs in Dobson, Boyce, Thompinks and Harrison. It would be better to balance them with some more experienced UFAs and use your draft picks elsewhere.

PRO-ROUND 1 WR ARGUMENT:

1. We would all rather see other positions like TE or DT taken at #29. What we're talking about is a scenario where the first-round talent at those positions is gone, and there is no attractive trade offer on the table. You can't simply trade down at will to the point where you want to pick next; the right team has to want to trade up.

In that situation, WR is likely to be a position with strong talent available, and a starting job ready to be claimed. If you say "no way" on WR, what would you do instead?

 

[50-yard-line]

The last 3 to go may be Martavis Bryant, Jeff Janis and Donte Moncrief. After that, you're not going to find any big guys who can run a 4.4.

How about 6'3", 235 and runs a 4.46 40?

 

[upstater1]

How about 6'3", 235 and runs a 4.46 40?

Who is that? Sounds good to me. Who is it?

 

[VrabelJr]

Anything other than a DL in the first round would be a mistake, especially with how deep this year's WR class is.

 

[50-yard-line]

Who is that? Sounds good to me. Who is it?

Mark Harrison - we already have him.

 

[50-yard-line]

Anything other than a DL in the first round would be a mistake, especially with how deep this year's WR class is.

Unless there's a TE they really want (Ebron will be gone, but Amaro or ASJ), I agree.

DL/TE/OG-C

 

[upstater1]

Mark Harrison - we already have him.

As a Conn. resident who saw him in high school, then watched a lot of him at RU, I'm not high on him. A straight line stiff who never ran routes and he dropped a ton of balls.

I watched Martavis Bryant at the combine and Harrison could never move like that and snag balls like that. Nowhere near as fluid. Then you look at a kid like Moncrief who is the same size as Harrison but not only is he faster than Harrison, he was 3x more productive in college, catching 3x as many balls, 3x as many yards and TDs. And Moncrief did it in the SEC rather than the BE.

 

[Ivan]

Anything other than a DL in the first round would be a mistake, especially with how deep this year's WR class is.

You can't approach the draft in this way, if you do you end up with lesser player's across your roster because you placed need over the individual player's. That doesn't mean you ignore need but that you are flexible and address your needs with the best player's you can get at each point in the draft. If your first round board is gone, and it could be, then you try to trade back and get good value while staying true to your prospect rankings but if no deal is available then you take the BPA at a position you need.

 

[Ivan]

Unless there's a TE they really want (Ebron will be gone, but Amaro or ASJ), I agree.

DL/TE/OG-C

I was high on Amaro until I watched him at the combine and saw how stiff he looked as an athlete, at which point he dropped well out of the first round in terms of the Patriots and I probably wouldn't take him until the 3rd or 4th round if at all. Sefarian-Jenkins moved past him and I would seriously consider him if he is still on the board when they pick but if not i would start looking at Niklas or the TE from Iowa whose name i can't spell right now in the 2nd. Unfortunately the way the draft is shaping up in terms of the player's i like the most for them they are going to be looking at the bottom of the barrel as guys like Donald have shot past their choice and into territory that puts him out of reach, and I don't want Hagemann at all. Tuitt may be available and it would depend upon the grade they have on him. I am hoping a player drops as teams go for need and take the QB's or some RB's move up, but right now the prospects i want the most are pretty much out of reach and unless things change a WR may be the highest rated prospect on the board and I wouldn't be surprised if Cooks is available when they choose, and he should merit serious consideration.

 

[Ivan]

There's been a lot of good debate and differing viewpoints in this thread, and you know what? I agree with just about all of them. A summary, as I see it:

ANTI-ROUND 1 WR ARGUMENTS:

1. Leaguewide, WR is the hardest position to project from college to the pros -- and projecting success as a PATRIOTS receiver is even harder. That level of risk and uncertainty makes it an unwise use of your biggest chunk of draft capital.

2. The WR class is quite deep, and there's almost no consensus (here or elsewhere) about how they rank after Watkins, Evans and Lee.

3. The Patriots already have a stable of athletically talented but unproven young WRs in Dobson, Boyce, Thompinks and Harrison. It would be better to balance them with some more experienced UFAs and use your draft picks elsewhere.

PRO-ROUND 1 WR ARGUMENT:

1. We would all rather see other positions like TE or DT taken at #29. What we're talking about is a scenario where the first-round talent at those positions is gone, and there is no attractive trade offer on the table. You can't simply trade down at will to the point where you want to pick next; the right team has to want to trade up.

In that situation, WR is likely to be a position with strong talent available, and a starting job ready to be claimed. If you say "no way" on WR, what would you do instead?

Agree completely. While I would rather see them address a different need in the first I can see a scenario where the top prospects at need positions that they want are gone and a WR with a first round grade remains, and at that point they would have to make a decision on which WR would fit the best, and if it came down to Beckham vs. Cooks and being able to understand the offense was the issue then Cooks would get the nod, but if versatility is the priority then Beckham would get it. How the Patriots see it is anyones guess but that's how i would look at it. And if Lee fell then he would enter into the debate and could well end up being the pick.