Brace yourself for Shock: Could the Patriots go WR in the 1st round?

[VJCPatriot]

It has never happened before in the BB regime, but when you get a feel for the prospects available in this year's draft, the unthinkable might just happen. The Patriots might go WR in Round 1. Yes, I said it. Round 1.

At first blush, it is an unthinkable occurrence. And yet, I remember a time I thought BB would never draft a linebacker in the 1st round, just because it had never been done before. BB shocked us by drafting Mayo high in the 1st round in 2008.

BB also has not been shy about drafting wide receivers, in just about every other draft, BB has taken a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round. However he has not yet ever expended a 1st round pick on a wideout. The most famous incident would be his trade down to bypass Dez Bryant in the 1st. Then again although Dez Bryant had 1st round talent he also had character question marks which might have induced BB to pass.

This year the Patriots have two clear cut needs - DL and TE. However the depth at DL and TE is such that it becomes doubtful that they will drop all the way down to us in the 1st. And might be gone by our pick in the second. So what do we do? If the value is right, IE the right player is there, we might pick a 1st round talent at WR instead of taking a guy who is valued more as a 2nd round DE or DT.

And the reason we'd go for WR in the 1st is to hedge against the risk that there are no viable TE choices available by our 2nd round pick. By going wideout in the 1st, that allows us to take a development prospect at TE later in the 3rd, 4th, or 5th round. Because it is quite POSSIBLE that all of Ebron, ASJ, Amaro, Niklas, etc. are gone by pick #62. And after that you have a pretty big dropoff.

There is also the Julian Edelman/Amendola situation. If Edelman prices himself out of our market, ie he signs a big 7m+ per deal with another team - we LOSE our leading receiver in production last season, and our best kick returner last season. ON TOP of that, Amendola is a 50/50 proposition to even play in 75% of the games next season. Which means we COULD BE in huge trouble at the WR position!

Therefore it makes sense to sign a 1st round WR, if the talent, and the draft falls in a certain way. Because a 1st round receiver is more likely to make an impact early, which is what we will need. I'm not saying this is the most attractive scenario, because MOST rookie WRs take around 3 years to blossom into their prime. However, our hand might be forced.

That is why I would like to see the Patriots sign a veteran WR in free agency. A guy like a Golden Tate or a Hakeem Nicks to a short deal with not too many bonuses to hedge against the loss of either Julian Edelman to free agency or Amendola to injury. I am not sure that Brady could survive with a wideout core comprised entirely of young bucks - Dobson, Thomkins, and Boyce. Not to mention that Dobson's health and availability have now come into question due to a stress fracture in his foot that may/or may not require offseason surgery!!

I will close by discussing 3 possible suitable WR candidates for the Pats at pick #29. Your discussion and feedback as always are valued.

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Candidate A. Marquise Lee, USC

6'0 192 lbs, 4.52 40, 38" VJ, 127" BJ

Collegiate productivity: 57 receptions 791 yards 4 TDs in junior season. Biletnikoff award winner in 2012.

Pros: Long strider with 'game speed' who made big plays in the collegiate game. An explosive playmaker in the deep game and adds versatility with his return game. Has good 'explosion' numbers in terms of vertical jump and broad jump. Played in a big program with USC so the level of competition is high. Came from a tough background and is a 'survivor' type. Earned a starting job at WR as a true freshman when he teamed up with Robert Woods to form one of the most productive WR tandems in college football. Considered a natural hands catcher and a good route runner. NFL comparison is Keenan Allen.

Cons: Timed 40 speed is not impressive for a deep threat receiver. Height is not impressive compared to 'new generation' of 6'3 and up receivers. Struggled with injuries in his junior season. He's a USC wide receiver, and fair or unfair that does carry some stigma.

Summary: The best part about Marquise Lee going to the Patriots is that he is a natural outside receiver and could be counted on to stretch the defense more than the receivers we currently have. However he has good but not 'great' size for the position and his 40 time is good but not impressive. But that's why he could slip to us. Injury in his final season is a concern for me as well as any teams that will be looking to pick him. He had a much better sophomore season when he was fully healthy.

Prospect Videos:
Marquise lee - Bing Videos
Marquise lee - Bing Videos
NFL Draft 365: USC WR Marqise Lee - NFL Videos

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Candidate B. Brandin Cooks, Oregon St

5'10 189 lbs

Combine:
4.33 40 yard dash*
36" VJ
120" BJ
6.76 3 cone
3.81 20 yd shuttle*
10.72 60 yd shuttle*

College productivity: 128 receptins 1,730 yards 16tds his junior season. Biletnikoff award winner in 2013.

Pros: Brandin Cooks exploded at the combine. His speed and athleticism is freakish. Cooks set a new combine record in the 60 yard shuttle, his agility is beyond elite, it's at another level. He is a versatile weapon offensively who projects to the slot at the pro level. But Cooks can simply run away from people, on top of that he is elusive and is a dangerous player on screens and WR handoffs where he gets the ball in open space. Some compare his game to Steve Smith and Desean Jackson. Which means he would be more than just a slot guy, he could play deep and take the lids off defenses. Was a durable player who did not miss many games. There's a lot to like about Cooks game.

Cons: Sometimes Cooks gets too lateral in his game, and by trying to make something out of nothing will occasionally create negative plays. Size. If Cooks were 2 inches taller, he'd probably be a top 10 pick and way out of our reach. Even then his explosive showing at the combine means, he might not last all the way to 29. But if he does last that long, the Patriots are a team famous for making super smurfs into productive offensive machines. Imagine a supercharged Deion Branch or Wes Welker. That's what Cooks could turn into for us. Tom Brady could be very happy with that kind of passing outlet.

Videos:
brandin cooks - Bing Videos

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Candidate C. Odell Beckham Jr, LSU

5'11 198 lbs

4.43 40
38.5" VJ
122" BJ
6.69 3 cone
3.94 20 yard shuttle*
10.93 60 yard shuttle*

College productivity: 59 receptions for 1,152 yards and 8 touchdowns. School record 2,315 all purpose yards including kick and punt returns.

Pros: Odell Beckham exhibits impressive fluidity in his route running. He also shows exceptional ability to track the ball on the fly and pull it down. His ability to highpoint the ball and bring it in safely even against contested coverage is what really impresses. Beckham's leaping ability isn't just a gaudy combine metric, he incorporates it into his game. Beckham is a big play receiver who averaged nearly 20 yards per catch in his last collegiate season. Beckham's extraordinary agility is also reflected in his combine numbers, the kid shows the ability to cut on a dime and change direction without losing much speed or fluidity. Finally he is an experienced kick/punt returner who I could envision stepping in right away and taking over special teams duties amd that could be a big need for us if Edelman leaves.

Cons: Odell's height is not exceptional. His 40 time could be a touch quicker but is still in the top echelon of receivers tested in the combine, just not elite. Like most college receivers he needs to improve his blocking ability and strength. He also needs to improve his consistency in offensive performance. Over 30% of Odell's production, 11 catches and 340 yards, in 2013 came against 2 teams.

Summary: Odell Beckham is a versatile deep play threat who impresses with his fluidity, route running, and ability to snatch the ball away from defenders using his leaping ability. He needs to improve on his overall consistency and the number of different routes he can run, but a big play threat is always welcome for an offense that needs an added threat to 'take the lid off' a defense. Beckham's return ability is a real strength that enhances his value for a team looking for a 'swiss army' knife of a player. Just get the ball in Beckham's hands and watch him make things happen with his elusiveness and speed in the open field. Beckham's NFL comparison is Percy Harvin.

Videos:
odell beckham - Bing Videos

 

[JerseyShore99]

To me TE is our biggest need, but if BB does go WR, Beckham is the most-BB type WR available, Lee also spent a long time with Pats staff, my personal favorite WRs supposed to go early are Watkins, Benjamin, Lee, and Robinson

 

[manxman2601]

I'm a big fan of Cooks and Beckham and would be fine drafting either in the first. But are we giving up on Josh Boyce too early? He doesn't have the elite athleticism of Cooks or Beckham but he's not that far behind. I would like them to see what they can get out of Boyce and Harrison first. After all, next years receiver class at the top is potentially strong too.

 

[zimmy]

I've been saying for well over a month that we could go WR in round 1 because of the value. I think in the 1st round you don't draft for need. You take the best player there is because you never know what will become a need as the season progresses. Who would have thought this time last year that TE would have been an issue for the Pats? Similarly, I remember everyone saying last year that Collins was a luxury pick as we already had linebackers. We're not saying that now.

I'd suggested Beckham and Cooks as options.

I don't see us now drafting a WR because both of their stock has risen well above where we are picking. I'd be surprised if either were there at our pick and I don't see any value left. Watkins, Evans, Lee, Beckham and Cooks will all be gone by 29. They are the only Wrs I have a 1st round grade on. I don't like Benjamin at all.

 

[ashley]

Hopefully we don't draft one until the later rounds. If there is no value at tight end or the defensive line when we pick at 29, I would hope we trade back.

 

[patchick]

I have always been opposed to round-1 WRs on principle, because it's the hardest position to project from college to the NFL.

BUT...I have to admit that this year, it looks like a real possibility that the WR talent available at the Pats' pick will be far more attractive than other "need" positions. I could live with it.

 

[patfanken]

Shock? It would be more than a shock if the Pats picked a WR in the first round. I would pass out right there on the floor, and here's why.

1. It takes a lot more that mere athletic ability (size, speed, quickness, and acceleration) to be able to play in this system. Even guys who have been quality NFL WR's have struggled, and some never got it.

2. We don't really know what he have with the 3 rookies we had last season.

3. Any rookie we pick, regardless of skill level is going to have a steep learning curve with the Pats. Don't forget that historically rookie WR's have NOT been very productive for us. And even though BOTH Dobson and Thompkins both surpassed Branch (the previous top guy) in total yards, the bar was not set very high, nor was it surpassed by much

4. This is one of the deepest drafts for WR's in several years, and next year's is supposed to be just as good. So we see again that the most easily replaceable position in the NFL is WR. That's one of the reasons there are going to be over 50 experienced WR available NFL WR's come March. And the best part is that 95% of them aren't going to cost much (over $5MM)

5. You also have to consider that more than half of the WR's taken in the first round never have careers that merit the value of where they are picked, and even fewer still, make a big impact in their rookie years.

6. I think that as more an more college and HS teams run passing offenses, the stream of quality WR's is only going to continually grow and flood the market further. I think more and more teams will come to the realization that the first round is really too early to pick a player who is playing a position that is has been proven to be more hype than substance as far as winning games goes.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

One would have to ask why, but if Evans fell I'd consider him. Otherwise I'd like Allen Robinson at 29 and would deal with Beckham. I'm against all others.

I watched some Cooks last night and I can't say I liked what I saw. He's too dainty and gadgety. I compared him to Desean Jackson, but he's not that good. He's more like Tavon Austin and I didn't want him either.

 

[patfanken]

duplicate post

 

[upstater1]

Some of the combine numbers for players like Donte Moncrief, Martavis Bryant and Jeff Janis were through the roof. These are very big players with big bodies all running like the wind.

I'd be very tempted to wait for the 2nd/3rd/4th round for one of them rather than jump on Lee/Beckham/the Vanderbilt kid whose name escapes me.

 

[manxman2601]

Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU (CI)
Michael Campanaro, WR, Wake Forest (CI, U)
Brandon Coleman, WR, Rutgers (CI)
Marqise Lee, WR, USC (CI)
Donte Moncrief (Caserio attended PD)

It's early yet and this doesn't necessarily mean anything but I think an early round WR is, at the very least, on the radar.

 

[sircole]

I like all the receivers mentioned in the post but I don't know if we should draft one in the first round.

I am mainly worried about injury. All our receivers missed playing time last season and even Edelman looked rocked in a couple of games.

Marquis Lee already has an injury history. And to me, receivers with high agility skills (Beckham and Cook) tend to play reckless and become injury prone (Desean Jackson, Percy Harvin, Edelman--except for this past season).

 

[VJCPatriot]

Let me respond to some of your concerns by giving you a scenario. Because drafts aren't made just by picking on pure talent alone. They are based on circumstances, scouting, and needs.

When I heard that the Patriots called WR Marquise Lee in for further interviews, at first I thought they were just doing due diligence. And then I reflected further on the draft and the talent available. And then I considered our uncertainty at the WR position.

Given the caveat that I DO believe that usually you build from the lines on out, there are times when you make exceptions. When need and available talent conspire for BB to make an unprecedented selection.

Here's the scenario. In free agency, Julian Edelman is signed away for a 7m+ per year contract. We all panic, because we know the Pats have been shopping Amendola around and have gotten no takers. Furthermore, we can't move Mallet. And so that high to mid 2nd rounder never materializes.

Next more bad news, Dobson turns out to need that offseason surgery after all. But we have good news, Gronk looks well on his way to recovery. Our depth at TE still sucks, but if we have Gronk, we're good right? Only who ELSE will Brady throw the ball to? And oh yeah we need a kick returner now with JE gone.

Now it's draft day. Ebron goes early as expected. Because the draft is thinner at DL, the stud defensive tackles and ends are snapped up early. Jace Amaro is taken before the Pats pick. This is HUGE!

Oh and KC DOES take a receiver as expected, but that still leaves TWO out of the THREE of the above discussed trio of wideouts available. The top corners are all taken before pick 29, because well everybody knows corners are expensive in free agency, and what did the Seahawks just do? Ha-sean Clinton-Dix and Calvin Pryor are taken before us because everyone's also looking for the next Kam Chancellor.

Now it's our turn at pick 29. We are staring at possibly two first round talent WR prospects, Louis Nix, and tight ends we should really only take in rounds 2-3. BB works the phones. He tries to get a big trade down. Ala the Saints trade where we got multiple picks and still got a decent second rounder in return. Unfortunately too many teams have been burned by trader Bill. He's only offered an 2nd and a 4th and they aren't even early picks. What to do?

In that moment in time, BB comes to this realization. He can either take a 2nd round defensive/offensive line talent in the 1st round or he can take a poor trade down. It is also possible that the 2nd round DL or TE he wants to target might not even last to pick #62. ASJ and Niklas could be well gone by pick #62 even if they don't merit pick #29. Tuitt and Hageman might fall out of round 1 but probably won't last to #62. And Nix is a huge questionmark as purely an NT, he's probably not worth a 1st but will he last to #62?

So, instead of dealing with those uncertainties BB opts for a 1st round grade wide receiver. The football world is shocked. Patsfans.com is shocked. Certain posters here are not shocked. And somewhere, Tom Brady smiles.

Is this entirely far fetched? Not really, no, not when you consider the entirety of our situation and how the draft might fall. Of course we could end up drafting an OL in the 1st or a DL, or Jace Amaro might slide to us and we snap him up.

BUT if the circumstances aren't right, we might well have to pick the 1st round talent at WR to maximize the value of our pick. To land at least ONE impact player for the offense this year. Would I love to see this pick supplemented with a veteran WR? Sure, but how much will he cost? $$-wise We are dealing in a cap world, and draft picks still remain the most economic method of acquiring talent for an NFL roster.

 

[Ivan]

The only thing I care about is that the first rounder is an impact player and turns out to be one of the best player's in the league at their position.If the first round doesn't leave them a better option then I would be fine with it as long as they get the right player. I think Cooks and Lee are the most pro ready but Beckham the highest ceiling. I expect Watkins and Evans will be long gone and I don't think Benjamin is anywhere near ready for the Pro's.

 

[EddieBlake]

All I gotta say is this.....If we draft a WR first round he better bump his head coming through the door...and NOT on the Door Knob like usual

 

[Gronkandez]

All I gotta say is this.....If we draft a WR first round he better bump his head coming through the door...and NOT on the Door Knob like usual

Hmmm...interesting choice of words...but yeah, if they take a WR in the first round he better be tall with freakishly long arm and a great vertical. Then again that's what Dobson is supposed to be. I just have no idea what type of player he'll end being.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not advocating this by any means, but if you take the position that the Pats are already adept at moving the chains but need better red zone conversion, then the guy to consider would be Kelvin Benjamin. Then again, Donte Moncrief at 6' 2 3/8" and 219# (221# at the Combine) with a 39.5" VJ and much better speed and mobility (4.40 40, 7.02 3-cone) would probably come a round cheaper, or possibly more.

 

[Wilfork#75]

I am 100% against drafting a WR in the first round. We already have so much youth at the position that I don't think adding another rookie is going to help all that much. As Ashley said, if the TE and DL talent are gone I would trade back, especially in the deepest draft in a decade.

The reasons I wouldn't touch a WR in round 1 are:
- History shows us WR is the position least likely to help early given the system and difficulty getting on the same page with Brady
- With the exception of Mike Evans or Kelvin Benjamin, none of these 1st round WR's would give us something we don't already have with our young guys. They might do some things better, but I don't see that upgrade being worth a 1st round pick
- This is the deepest draft in a decade and WR is the deepest position in the draft, it makes more sense waiting and getting better value later.
- I don't see any of the guys that could be available at 29 (Cooks, Beckham, etc) being #1 WRs in the NFL. I wouldn't spend a 1st round pick on a guy who I think is a #2 WR.
- We already have 3 young guys, a vet and we could potentially re-sign a 100 catch, 1,000 yard WR. I don't see WR as our biggest need

I just don't see drafting a WR at 29 being a smart move. I would look to go DL (because Ebron will likely be gone) or trade down. I would much rather grab a WR in the 3rd/4th/5th round than the 1st. Ideally we would re-sign Edelman and maybe grab a vet on a 1 year deal like Sidney Rice to compete with our young guys.

 

[mayoclinic]

I am 100% against drafting a WR in the first round. We already have so much youth at the position that I don't think adding another rookie is going to help all that much. As Ashley said, if the TE and DL talent are gone I would trade back, especially in the deepest draft in a decade.

The reasons I wouldn't touch a WR in round 1 are:
- History shows us WR is the position least likely to help early given the system and difficulty getting on the same page with Brady
- With the exception of Mike Evans or Kelvin Benjamin, none of these 1st round WR's would give us something we don't already have with our young guys. They might do some things better, but I don't see that upgrade being worth a 1st round pick
- This is the deepest draft in a decade and WR is the deepest position in the draft, it makes more sense waiting and getting better value later.
- I don't see any of the guys that could be available at 29 (Cooks, Beckham, etc) being #1 WRs in the NFL. I wouldn't spend a 1st round pick on a guy who I think is a #2 WR.
- We already have 3 young guys, a vet and we could potentially re-sign a 100 catch, 1,000 yard WR. I don't see WR as our biggest need

I just don't see drafting a WR at 29 being a smart move. I would look to go DL (because Ebron will likely be gone) or trade down. I would much rather grab a WR in the 3rd/4th/5th round than the 1st. Ideally we would re-sign Edelman and maybe grab a vet on a 1 year deal like Sidney Rice to compete with our young guys.

Bravo. I agree completely. Every single point, and especially the highlighted ones.

 

[BobDigital]

Though I am not FOR taking a WR in the first round I am not against it either depending on what we do later.

In this draft we need to accomplish 2 things offensively. We need an offensive play maker and a redzone target. It would be nice to accomplish both at once with a TE but this might not be possible (I still think ASJ is our best bet and an underrated prospect who will fall lower than he should due to his injury).

However if we go WR in the first round and TE in the 3rd or 4th... say

1st round - Beckham - WR
4th round - C.J. Fiedorowicz - TE

I would be okay with this outcome though IMO it is not optimal but still effective.

However I think WR is so deep this draft it is almost a pity to take one with our first pick when we can probably get better value later. But if you believe you can draft a stud player you get the stud player period.