Brace yourself for Shock: Could the Patriots go WR in the 1st round?

[patfanken]

Sorry but you people are just F'ing NUTS. Don't you get it. Lets suppose BB has a stroke on draft day, and we pick up Odell Beckham at 29 just to make you guys all stain your pants. And lets further suppose that Beckham exceeds our highest expectations as the Pats slot receiver and catches 100 balls and goes over 1100 yds. SOOOOOOO WHATTT!!!!!

While you can all pat yourselves on the back, all Beckham would have done would be to essentially duplicate what EVERY slot receiver the Pats have put out there for the last decade, and all of them came into the league as a 7th round pick or lower. And that's not discounting the fact that the Pats already have THREE guys on the current roster that can fill the job.

Congratulations - You have just reinvented the cell phone. Nice piece of equipment, but, not only do you want me to pay the premium price...duh, I already have one.

 

[everlong]

Could you be putting too much emphasis on the results when you scout Robinson?

No I evaluate receivers on how they do their job. Looking at the notes I took:

Inconsistent route runner. Will round a route one time and cut hard another.

Not physical enough in the passing game or in the running game.

Very good in getting YAC.

Inconsistent hands.

Lacks balance at times and other times shows good balance others.

Understand zone vs man concepts.

Doesn't separate.

The lack of consistency and separation were what stood out.

 

[everlong]

Sorry but you people are just F'ing NUTS. Don't you get it. Lets suppose BB has a stroke on draft day, and we pick up Odell Beckham at 29 just to make you guys all stain your pants. And lets further suppose that Beckham exceeds our highest expectations as the Pats slot receiver and catches 100 balls and goes over 1100 yds. SOOOOOOO WHATTT!!!!!

While you can all pat yourselves on the back, all Beckham would have done would be to essentially duplicate what EVERY slot receiver the Pats have put out there for the last decade, and all of them came into the league as a 7th round pick or lower. And that's not discounting the fact that the Pats already have THREE guys on the current roster that can fill the job.

Congratulations - You have just reinvented the cell phone. Nice piece of equipment, but, not only do you want me to pay the premium price...duh, I already have one.

Ken much respect but your post is a lot of hyperbole. None of us are doing this for the accolades of being right and most of us don't want a receiver this high unless it's the last resort or a value so over the top good that you can't pass it up. So it's still worth talking about. Besides that who's to say one of these guys doesn't slip to the late 40's and we trade up from 62 to get them? What if the Ryan Mallet (pipe) dream became a reality and all the good TEs are already off the board and you've addressed defense twice with say Hageman and Shazier and Beckham is there at 50?

It's a long way to the draft still. Relax. For the most part we try to keep it more civil in the draft forum than the main board.

 

[Luxusdk]

Ken much respect but your post is a lot of hyperbole. None of us are doing this for the accolades of being right and most of us don't want a receiver this high unless it's the last resort or a value so over the top good that you can't pass it up. So it's still worth talking about. Besides that who's to say one of these guys doesn't slip to the late 40's and we trade up from 62 to get them? What if the Ryan Mallet (pipe) dream became a reality and all the good TEs are already off the board and you've addressed defense twice with say Hageman and Shazier and Beckham is there at 50?

It's a long way to the draft still. Relax. For the most part we try to keep it more civil in the draft forum than the main board.

Pretty sure Ken talking about Getting a "small" WR like Cooks or Beckham at 29 would be completely Waste, so if we have to look at wr it has to be a outside big Fellow a true #1 WR.

Atleast thats the way i was reading hes post.

 

[everlong]

Pretty sure Ken talking about Getting a "small" WR like Cooks or Beckham at 29 would be completely Waste, so if we have to look at wr it has to be a outside big Fellow a true #1 WR.

Atleast thats the way i was reading hes post.

Re-reading the post you're probably right. I think Beckham and Cooks are more than slot receivers though. Cooks reminds me of a young Deion Branch only faster. Beckham has the speed to play outside and would add a dimension to kickoffs. I don't want either in the first round but I don't want any of the big WRs for that matter as my first choice.

 

[manxman2601]

Sorry but you people are just F'ing NUTS. Don't you get it. Lets suppose BB has a stroke on draft day, and we pick up Odell Beckham at 29 just to make you guys all stain your pants. And lets further suppose that Beckham exceeds our highest expectations as the Pats slot receiver and catches 100 balls and goes over 1100 yds. SOOOOOOO WHATTT!!!!!

While you can all pat yourselves on the back, all Beckham would have done would be to essentially duplicate what EVERY slot receiver the Pats have put out there for the last decade, and all of them came into the league as a 7th round pick or lower. And that's not discounting the fact that the Pats already have THREE guys on the current roster that can fill the job.

Congratulations - You have just reinvented the cell phone. Nice piece of equipment, but, not only do you want me to pay the premium price...duh, I already have one.

Guess what. We're not the ones inviting all the top receivers in for visits. We're just discussing the consequences of such. I think you should be directing your anger elsewhere.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

No I evaluate receivers on how they do their job. Looking at the notes I took:

That's good. It can be hard to isolate the player sometimes.

Inconsistent route runner. Will round a route one time and cut hard another.

I've seen this at times, but it doesn't worry me. While not being consistently good (who is) the route running talent he flashes is enough from a WR like him. The consistency isn't abnormal and will develop with age. He's one of the youngest players in the draft and by all account is very bright and coachable. I put more emphasis on the amount of routes he's running and the complexity of the offense. He runs a diverse route tree with a heavy emphasis on options and concepts, unlike some of his peers. Cooks and Watkins come to mind.

Not physical enough in the passing game or in the running game.

His physicality is very deceptive. Like it or not, pushing off is a big part of playing WR and creating separation, but to do it without being flagged. Robinson does that. Using the back of the hand rather than the palm, and not using the elbows too much is the key. I will take that over Evans and his technique. Evans will need to adjust or he'll be a penalty machine in the NFL. I'm sure he can adjust, but if he can remain as effective is a question. I don't have that question with Robinson.

It didn't take me long to find an example. Watch the first play. That's OPI more often than not. Mike Evans vs LSU (2013) | Draft Breakdown

Very good in getting YAC.

Yes, his quickness and vision are outstanding. I think sometimes he gets criticized for a lack of physicality for trying to gain YAC by going around tacklers rather than through them. If he has the foot speed to go around them, then I'd rather he do that. Same goes for anyone. Demaryius Thomas does the same thing and he isn't criticized.

Inconsistent hands.

I don't see that. I see very good and strong hands. He catches out in front of his body and far away from the defender.

Bob McGinn - Packers draft outlook

second scout said. "Very good hands. Should be a starter in a short amount of time."

Breaking Down the Metrics of Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson

Not much to worry about with hands or drops here. The biggest concern is Beckham who is right on the cusp of drops being a problem. The full list is as follows:
Beckham: 7.41%
Landry: 3.03%
Evans: 3.51%
Robinson: 4.55%

4.55% is a very good rate and well below anything problematic.

Lacks balance at times and other times shows good balance others.

The way the balls are thrown he has more adjusting to do than others. I've seen him slip, but nothing abnormal.

Understand zone vs man concepts.

Agreed.

Doesn't separate.

I don't see that, I see that with Benjamin.

The lack of consistency and separation were what stood out.

I don't see the separation issue and addressed the consistency. He's also a great kid and a great fit for other reasons. He grew up paying in the cold and the snow in Michigan, he's graduating Penn State early, he knows our offense already, he speaks well, he had the best answers on NFL Network's Game Changers. Mariucchi said Robinson reminded him of AJ Green. Robinson admitted to watching Green a lot, and praised his work ethic and "will to be great." He said he prides himself on his will to be great. He talked about how he learned to focus and block everything during the scandal at Penn State. By all accounts he gets it between the ears, and doesn't show any diva behavior. I think he's the total package.

 

[everlong]

His physicality is very deceptive. Like it or not, pushing off is a big part of playing WR and creating separation, but to do it without being flagged.

Yes, his quickness and vision are outstanding. I think sometimes he gets criticized for a lack of physicality for trying to gain YAC by going around tacklers rather than through them. If he has the foot speed to go around them, then I'd rather he do that. Same goes for anyone. Demaryius Thomas does the same thing and he isn't criticized.

I was more looking at physicality off the line. It wasn't a knock on his YAC which as I noted was very good.

I don't see that. I see very good and strong hands. He catches out in front of his body and far away from the defender.

Maybe it's the games I watched but he had two bad drops with nobody touching him. I do agree the rate is very good.

The way the balls are thrown he has more adjusting to do than others. I've seen him slip, but nothing abnormal.

Perhaps. I'll pay closer attention to that when I rewatch him.

I don't see that, I see that with Benjamin.

I'm not big on Benjamin and think he'll struggle at the next level. More Mike Williams (USC not 'Cuse) than Boldin.

I don't see the separation issue and addressed the consistency. He's also a great kid and a great fit for other reasons. He grew up paying in the cold and the snow in Michigan, he's graduating Penn State early, he knows our offense already, he speaks well, he had the best answers on NFL Network's Game Changers. Mariucchi said Robinson reminded him of AJ Green. Robinson admitted to watching Green a lot, and praised his work ethic and "will to be great." He said he prides himself on his will to be great. He talked about how he learned to focus and block everything during the scandal at Penn State. By all accounts he gets it between the ears, and doesn't show any diva behavior. I think he's the total package.

I just don't see him having the burst or athletic ability Green does or the body control in the air. He's got a bigger frame to work with and I see him as a different type of receiver.

Great discussion. I'll watch the videos you gave tonight.....pesky firewall.

 

[EwanSellars]

robinson is my favorite realistic WR for us but I dont see a big enough need to get him at 29 or early 2nd latimer is another prospect i love and would love him in the third but it seems he could rise too high hopefully he drops and we can scoop him up at some point in the draft

 

[Patriot Missile]

Ken much respect but your post is a lot of hyperbole. None of us are doing this for the accolades of being right and most of us don't want a receiver this high unless it's the last resort or a value so over the top good that you can't pass it up. So it's still worth talking about. Besides that who's to say one of these guys doesn't slip to the late 40's and we trade up from 62 to get them? What if the Ryan Mallet (pipe) dream became a reality and all the good TEs are already off the board and you've addressed defense twice with say Hageman and Shazier and Beckham is there at 50?

It's a long way to the draft still. Relax. For the most part we try to keep it more civil in the draft forum than the main board.

Yep, pretty safe to say the board is split between DT and TE with the first 2 picks. This is a random forum and sometimes hypothetical ideas are brought into play.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Thanks for the very interesting article breaking down and comparing Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson.

If I may, I'd like to compare the stats between Beckham vs Robinson as those are two players realistically in our pick range. I don't believe we have any real shot at Evans.

My first concern for Beckham is his 7.41% drop rate vs Robinson's excellent 3.03% drop rate.

However a breakdown of where these receivers caught the ball reveals a possible explanation as to the discrepancy.

Namely, Beckham has the highest rate of total deep completions of the receivers charted. That is an astonishing 66% of Beckhams catches are caught in the 11-20 yard and 20+ yard range. When you consider that deep balls have a higher chance of interruption and higher degree of difficulty, the 7.41% drop rate becomes understandable and less concerning.

To contrast, a whopping 69.85% of Robinson's catches came from screens, 1-5 yards, and 6-10 yard range. This might explain his very low drop rate as he is handling a significantly larger volume of shorter range passes.

I will briefly acknowledge here that Robinson exhibited a higher YAC average of 8.54 whilst Beckham managed a lower 5.98 YAC. That's a nice bonus. But now if you add the average yards from LOS position with the YAC, you get 8.7+ 8.54 for 17.24 yards for Robinson and 14.52 + 5.98 for 20.5 yards for Beckham.

Finally the most surprising chart for me is how many throws to the receiver resulted in a 1st down. Beckham's 78% 1st down conversion rate is head and shoulders above the other receivers. Now that is a 'move the chains' wideout! The other wideouts charted, ranged from Robinson's 52% to Evan's 56% 1st down rate. You will also notice that Beckham got stopped short of the 1st down marker only 12% of the time vs Robinson's 28.57%.

What this suggests to me is that Beckham is finding ways to get open for 1st downs at a significantly higher rate than the other receivers examined in this group. When you add in Beckham's explosive return abilities into the equation as well, you get a 4-down player who is adept at moving the chains and catching the intermediate to deep ball to 'take the lid off' defenses.

Just from a pure stats perspective, I'd rather take the guy who gives a 78% chance at a 1st down on each reception.

Caveat - these are college numbers and may not translate completely to the pros, however when you compare their production at each part of the field, you get a feel for where each player may be most productive. Out of this group, Mike Evans is the biggest pure deep threat, catching 25% of his passes beyond the 20 yard mark. However overall, Beckham catches the highest rate of combined passes in the 11-20 yard and 20 yard+ range. Robinson meanwhile caught only 30.16% of his catches in that 11-20 yard and 20 yard+ range.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Pretty sure Ken talking about Getting a "small" WR like Cooks or Beckham at 29 would be completely Waste, so if we have to look at wr it has to be a outside big Fellow a true #1 WR.

Atleast thats the way i was reading hes post.

Odell Beckham and Brandon Cooks are #1 receivers. There is no height requirement as to who can be a true #1 and who can't. I like Dobson as our Big body receiver and I'd love to have an Antonio Brown/Percy Harvin type opposite of him with Edleman/Dola in the slot and Lafell getting snaps as well. WR is not the #1 need IMO but If there isn't a trade back and Donald/Shazier/the other front 7 players I want are off the board. Im going Xavier Su'a Filo or Beckham if he's still there (assuming no Ebron as well). Both players can come in and really impact our offense week 1.