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Bay worth 100 M?

Discussion in 'Red Sox Fan Forum' started by JAYHAWKS34, Nov 9, 2009.

  1. JAYHAWKS34

    JAYHAWKS34 Rookie

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  2. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    Absolutely not.
    With the economy, these 16M+ contracts will be extremely rare, for only future hall of fame caliber players.

    Look at what we paid to resign Youk or Pedroia. Bargains.

    Look at what Abreu made this past year, or what Ichiro makes.

    If Bay wants more than 15M+ per year, then he can see if the Yankees will pay him because no one else will.
  3. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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  4. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    Both players were multiple years away from Free agency, so they're not really relevant.

    Abreu just signed a 10M a year deal, OPS 100 points below Bay, and plays even worse defense, so I'm not sure hes a good comparison.

    Ichiro OPS 200 points below Bay, and makes $20M a year. He is a MUCH better defender though. Again, neither one of these guys point to Bay not getting lots of money.
    The red sox wont, but the yankees, mets, and a handful of other teams probably will.
  5. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ------------- PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    Yup ........................ :yeahthat:
  6. HarkDawg

    HarkDawg Banned

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    100M

    No way....... Get your TYPE A SUPPLEMENTAL Picks for Bay and Wagner.


    Trading is the way to go.

    -Adrian Gonzalez looks mighty nice.:)
    -get Chapman the Cuban


    and we are set...... OF will find its own way. I rather sacrifice a bad season than hand out a 100 million to Jason Bay.
  7. rbh24

    rbh24 Rookie

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    Would like the Jays to get him rather him at 100 million then Vernon Wells.
  8. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    What you said. I'm shocked that MMav had no clue what he was talking about. Just shocked.

    Bay is going to get paid. Economy or not, the premier players on the market will get a fat deal. Bay shouldn't get $100 million, but who thought AJ Burnett, or Derek Lowe would get the monster deals they recieved? GRanted, those guys are pitchers, but the top guy usually get their money, and especially so when it's a sellers market like it is this year. There are few high end names out there. Bay should easily be in the 4 years, $60 million range. The question is, will someone, or a couple of teams, want him so badly that they'll offer more? I really think the SF Giants could be a player for Bay. Seattle too, since they are close to his home, and a bat is something they need. Look for one of those west coast teams to go after him. My guess is he gets a JD Drew type deal. Something in the 5 year, $70-75 million range. At least 4 years though. I'd be more inclined to sign Bay than Holliday, simply because of how bad his time in the AL was. Obviously NL teams might feel more comfortable with him.

    The Yankees won't be players for any significany free agents this year. They have something like $160+ million allocated to 12 players. They 2009 free agent signing was the 2008 signing of Mark Textiera. I think they'll look to bring back a some mix from the MAtsui/Damon/Nady trio, and see what happens next year. Short term commitment and money, while Austin Jackson has a full season at AAA to show if he's ready. If he isn't, Carl Crawford will be the guy they'll likely go after in 2010.
  9. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    Using JD Drew is a laughably bad benchmark. Drew is not even close to being worth $14M a year. This guy is a #7 hitter who you can't count on to drive in runs if he was higher up in the batting order. He has never hit 70 RBI since he's been here.

    Put JD Drew on the open market right now, the guy would be lucky to get 9M. The only reason he's paid 14M now is he has the best negotiating agent in baseball.

    If you're trying to say that Jason Bay is less valuable than JD Drew, then you're saying Bay isn't even worth 10M.
  10. JAYHAWKS34

    JAYHAWKS34 Rookie

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    indeed, 13M a year sounds about right
  11. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    While I agree with you that JD Drew is overpaid at $14 million per, Theo, and sabermetric sites like Fangraphs, disagree. Fangraphs feels that Drew's numbers offensively, and defensively, were worth $20+ million per ($21.6 million to be specific :confused:). Theo verbally stated in an interview that Drew was worth "a tick over" the $14 million he earned this season. I'm a fan of sabermetrics and all, but this is where I part with them, and refer to the old school method, of what my eyes tell me. My eyes tell me that Bay>Drew. I do think that Drew is a good player though. I just think Bay is more valuable. Preventing runs is critical, but scoring them is too. In today's pedless league, 35 bombs and 120 RBI are hard to find. Bay will get paid handsomely from someone.
  12. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    JD Drew:
    .279/.392/.522 OPS .914

    Jason Bay:
    .267/.384/.537 OPS .921


    As offensive players, Jason Bay was good for 33.7 Runs above a replacement player. JD Drew was good for about 25 runs above a replacement level with the bat.

    Yes, Bay is a little better with the bat, but not a huge amount.


    As far as defense, Drew was worth 10 runs above replacement in Right Field. Hes a good outfielder. Bay? He cost us 15 runs in the field.

    So total? Bay is 20 Runs above replacement. Drew is 35 runs above replacement.


    If Drew isn't worth 14, then Bay isn't worth 8.
  13. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    Jason Bay is very similar to Adam Dunn: He's a great hitter, but hes so bad in the field that it eats up most of his value.
  14. HarkDawg

    HarkDawg Banned

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    I wouldn't say he is "Bad" in LF..... Just not good/ a standout.


    Dunn comparison is brutal btw..... Dunn is a strikeout king w/ a much worse defensive pedigree.
  15. HarkDawg

    HarkDawg Banned

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    Jay Bay is not worth 100 MILLION.



    No one in this FA class is worth that kind of $$$$.
  16. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    To me, this is where sabermetrics start to enter the realm of BS. There is no proven standard for defensive scoring. The UZR, RF, ARM and assorted other defensive metrics are an unproven science that can't be compared to factual standards like batting average, home runs, OBP, etc. So whenever I see these defensive ratings thrown out there, a heavy dose of salt has to be applied.


    For example, Raul Ibanez has a UZR of 8.0. Jaun Rivera has a UZR of 11.9! These are two guys that are known to be bad outfielders. When the Philliessigned Ibanez there was a question about how he'd field in that park, in the NL, where there is no DH. Here are some others:

    Negative fielders
    Tori Hunter -1.6
    Shane Victorino -4.1
    Nick Markakis -5.8
    Jacoby Ellsbury -18.6!

    I won't even go near the Ellsbury rating, cuz of how ridiculous it is, so let's look at Tori Hunter specifically. He's long been considered to be in the upper echelon of defensive CF'ers. Yet, since UZR came into play, in the last 8 years (the only 8 for such stats) they have him rated negatively in 6 of those 8 years. Last year they listed him as a -10.6 UZR. The point is, apply lots of salt.
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2009
  17. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    Look at the UZR for SS's. Orlando Cabrera is the second worst in the league according to their metrics, at -15.3 UZR. Jason Bartlett a negative player at SS with his -5.5 UZR?

    How about first base. People can pretty much tell who's a hacker with a glove at first, and who can field the position. Ryan Howard is a hacker with a glove, yet he's a positive fielder at 1B according to the sabermetrics people, with his 1.3 UZR. Miggy Cabrera who sucks anywhere with a glove, is 4th best with +2.8 UZR rating. Now lets look at the bottom 5 in the league according to UZR. Two of them are gold glove winning first baseman, while the other is certainly GG caliber. They are:

    Mark Textiera -3.7
    Carlos Pena -4.6
    Nick Johnson -5.6

    Anyone who watched the playoffs could see how good Mark Textiera is at first base. To list him as a negative player defensively diminishes the formula's credibility to me.
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2009
  18. Synovia

    Synovia Rookie

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    Bay isn't as bad as Dunn, but he is BAD. (nobody is as bad as Dunn).

    He makes terrible jumps, is slow to the ball, and doesn't throw well. Drew, on the other hand, is very good in the outfield.


    Ellsbury, who you mentioned below, is kind of a question mark. You have to consider that hes being compared against much better players (other centerfielders). He's good, but he tends to read the ball poorly (but often makes up for it with his speed), and is a mess near the wall.


    As to the poster who mentioned Teixera, hes similar to Jeter: hes very steady handed, and has a fantastic glove. He just has no range.

    Cabrera is the same, his range has completely eroded the last couple years.


    Also, the Gold Glove is voted on by a bunch of sportswriters. Its not really proof of anything.
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2009
  19. Double G

    Double G Rookie

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    Where Bay lands and how much he makes all depends on what the Yankees want; if they cut ties with Damon, they'll need a left fielder and if nothing else, they will drive up Bays price so even if they don't sign him, they'll make the Red Sox pay more for him.

    Bottom line is this; if the Yankees want him, they'll get him, just like last year with horseface. That accomplished two things; made them stronger and the Red
    Sox weaker. If we signed horseface, we win the division and the world series too, end of story.

    They signed the ballbag, so they won it, just ask Payfraud, even that douchebag told Gammons had the Red Sox signed horseface, they would have won the division by 10 games.

    Then the Yankees will get Joe Mauer and be all set at catcher and picklenose can retire, then Hanley Ramirez and be all set at shortstop and then Captain Intagibles can retire, on and fvcking on it goes.

    The past nine years were so wonderful, peaceful really. Now the Yankees are back to their winning ways so it's a giant sh!t sandwhich and we all have to take a bite............
  20. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    I disagree. You're looking at the metrics and making an observation, as opposed to observing the actual player. Did you see Text play first during the playoffs? He was sensational. Also, Bay is in no way a "bad" LF'er. He's more than adequate out there. He's certainly better than Rivera and Ibanez. Worst case, he's on there level, which is the opposite of what the UZR sabermetrics will have you believe. The point is, defensive metrics are an unproven science. Any metric that puts a butcher like Howard ahead of Textiera defensively, has to be questioned.

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