Ch3, thanks. I'm going to drop some selected splits here, for what it is worth. This might or might not end up making a difference here.
Tomlinson
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/playerSplits?categoryId=70656
There are a few anomolies in an across-the-board unbelievable profile for LT (of course.) He's consistent home, away, grass, turf, etc. But there are some things that can be game-planned.
Now I'll say right up front, most of them are explained by down and distance, field position, etc., so I've tried not to read too much into these.
However, one that is interesting is that he is especially dangerous on second down and short yardage, obviously a passing situation, so therefore running the ball gets an added element of surprise (yes, even for SD).
Tomlinson, 2nd down, <2 to go:
11 attempts, 88 yards, 8 yards per carry, 6 TDs
On third down, with 3-7 yards to go, he hits a low point:
Tomlinson, 3rd down, 3-7 yards to go:
10 attempts, 14 yards, 1 yard per carry, 0 TDs
This is even though with 0-2 yards to go, he generally converts (4.0 yards per carry.) In fact, this is his stongest distance (most yards per carry) on third down, which is totally counterintuitive. He can get the tough yards, just not the "easy" ones, on 3rd downs.
Another significant tendency is that the Chargers run LT to the left about 4 times for every 3 times they run him to the right, and he gets better results, at least in terms of scoring, running left:
LT to left:
84 att., 414 yards, 5 ypc,
11 TDs
LT to the right:
66 att., 338 yards, 5 ypc,
1 TD
Running up the middle is their favorite way to use him, perhaps surprisingly. He also scores less frequently up the middle than around the left side:
LT up the middle:
117 att., 524 yds, 5 ypc, 5 TD
Down the right and left sidelines, there's a similar asymetry:
Right sideline: 33 att, 175 yds, 5 ypc,
4 td
Left sideline: 48 att, 364 yds,
8 ypc,
7 TD
As a receiver coming out of the backfield, he is slightly more dangerous on the right than left side.
Obviously, he's dangerous everywhere, but keeping him off the left edge on the ground is clearly one priority item for any opposing team.
Also: someone identify what Denver, KC, Seattle, and St. Louis have in common. He went for an average of 10 yards or more per reception against those 4 teams, and scored his three receiving TDs against those teams. Obviously, he sees KC and Denver 2 times per year, so he knows them (they know him too, but he seems to get the better of both team moreson than the average opponent.) But I don't get the Seattle/St. Louis tie-in.
One last item: Although his YPC average is the same, 22 of his 28 rushing TDs have been on grass, 6 on turf. He's had about 2.5 times more attempts on grass than turf, but that should only yield 15 touchdowns, if you scale for the difference in attempts. (Maybe that 1st seed
will be of some value to them.)
Rivers
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/playerSplits?categoryId=200301
I'm not noting any AFC/NFC splits, because I'm pretty certain both teams feasted against the NFC, and by comparison, suffered in relation to AFC teams. Also, I'm not noting minor bumps (better in 1st half than 2nd some ways, vice versa in others,) or easily explained (to my primitive mind) anomolies.
Now then:
Rattle him in the 1st quarter, and make it count:
5 of his 9 interceptions (and only 3 of his 27 touchdowns) this year came in the first quarter. Attempts 1-10 of the game are by far his worst, in terms of interceptions and TDs (although they are average in terms of percentage and yards per attempt) You want to do this all game, obviously, but he's apparently most vulnerable at the start of the game. It's more doable then, so when you get it, realize whatever points you reap aren't that likely to come again later. Cash them in to best advantage -- then keep him off the field. He's best in attempts 21-30 of a given game.
First down is too a passing down
Don't let the presence of the league's best rusher fool you. SD is as likely to throw on 1st down (154 attempts) as 2nd (168 attempts) or 3rd (133 attempts.)
3rd down, 3-7 to go
River has thrown 4 TDs at this down/distance, and 3 interceptions.
2nd down, 8-10 to go
Rivers has thrown 8 TDs at this down/distance, and only 1 interception.
High risk, high reward
Perhaps predictably, over half the sacks of Rivers came in Blitz situations. Also perhaps predictably, 11 TDs came in blitz situations. 3 Interceptions also resulted.
San Diego On Line
Rivers' QB rating against a 4 man front is 86; against 5, it's 93; against 6, it's 111. Against over 6 on the D line, it's 120. Oddly enough, there's a dip for LT's running average with 4 guys on the line, or a spike with 5 guys, however you want to look at it (4 on the line, 5 ypc, 5 on the line, 6 ypc, 6 on the line, 4 ypc.) It seems Rivers can exploit the stacked box, and it seems LT actually isn't stopped until you really load it down. Whatever you do, don't be caught in the middle of the road with the yellow stripes and dead armadillos - 5 guys on the line (in our case, say, the 3 down linemen plus a linebacker and a safety coming up to play the line,) is pretty much the perfect combo pack for Rivers and LT to both excel.
3 is the loneliest number
When you see 3 wides for SD, get out the popcorn. Rivers threw 5 of his 9 interceptions in a 3-wide set (compared to 2 int.s each in 2-wide and 4+-wide sets.)
Across my dead body!
Rivers threw more picks throwing to his left, across his body (11 TDs, 5 int.s, left side of field + left sideline combined,) than to his right (11 TDs, 2 int.s). In the middle, it's 0 TDs, 2 INTs, and the highest yards per attempt.
Make him beat you deep
Rivers has thrown 4 TDs of 21 yards or more, 7 of 11-20 yards, and 11 TDs with the ball thrown behind the line or within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He doesn't throw the deep interception, he just makes his bread and butter with the shorter routes (with LT and Antonio Gates on staff, this is a kind of predictable stat).
I'll let people with a little more savvy further dissect or gainsay these tendencies, or any others suggested by the splits. I thought they'd be interesting to have around.
PFnV
