Another SD breakdown

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by tabzilla, Jan 8, 2007.

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  1. tabzilla

    tabzilla Rookie

    I'm just going to post some stuff I've seen with SD since some of the stuff I've read so far seems very vanilla

    Sand Diego on Offense:

    1. San Diego tends to stretch out the run in both directions (left or right) and is the top in the league at wide runs to both sides. They actually run the ball better the more the play is stretched. Which partly attests to LT's ability/vision to cut up whenever there's a hole and partly because of his and his O-line's speed.

    To beat SD's strength (running the ball) we will have to hold the corner with TBC and Rosie (and possibly Vrabes at times) and force the run up inside. In fact SD is mediocre at best in running the ball inside. Not sure if its because their O-line isn't strong enough or whether they are not technially sound at "fighting in a closet" as is often the description of that kind of work). In terms of personel and stats they will not be able to run up inside on us Our D-line will prevent them. We've already faced the best in the league at the up the gut running and held our own (Jax, Buffalo, Chicago). But can we set the edge or will LT get outside???

    2. In terms of passing the ball Rivers is only good because of play action. If they can't run, Rivers will not pass. Its kinda like Indy's running offense in reverse. When LT's numbers go down, up come River's Int's.

    3. The third thing that stands out to me is when SD is on offense is that they are very poor at third down efficiency. Is it because they become predictable??? If so This could be a long day for SD.

    With the Pat's on Offense:

    1. We have a decent Running game.. which means it comes down to matchups. Lucky for us, SD has problems with a power running O-line (our hallmark this year, we actually run better against strong teams rather than finesse teams). Meaning we line up and try to knock the snot out of you... no silly blocking.

    Case in point SD has given up big yards to the top Power run teams (KC, Buffalo, and Cleveland - yes Cleveland is the #3 power running team) and in each case had a hard time winning, or have los tthe game. On the flip side, scheme running teams like Denver get mauled by SD... can't say exactly why, but I imagine that if SD gets outmuscled, their defense loses most of its advantage. I would have liked to see Jax or Carolina go against SD to test this theory.

    2. With Brady clicking.. we should be able to move the ball well against them without resorting to the run. SD isn't very good at stopping the pass.

    3. I wonder how the screen will work against Merriman. I haven't seen much of this strategy used against him and given our recent success as the screen it will be interesting to see how this matches up.

    I could see this as the typical setting up the run with the pass and when we get within 15 yards... just going back to the power run.

    Just some thoughts and things to watch when the game starts.
  2. kotong

    kotong Banned


    Maybe the Pats can do this at the 1 yd. line but not further back. No team has run straight up the gut against San Diego.
  3. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    The Chargers have allowed 4.2 YPC - I doubt it's all to the outside.
  4. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

    Good analysis tabzilla.
  5. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up Supporter

    Very interesting. Thanks for the post.
    Yes I was thinking about PATs use of the screen. It will probably depend
    on how agressive Chargers want/able to be.

    Is there any chance BB changes things up and uses a lot of 4-3?
    Waren and Green as DE's and Seymour and Wilfork as DTs.
    That alingment may make it more difficult for Charges to stretch out the run especially if Warren and Green can use their
    power and quickness to get off their blocks and penetrate the backfield. Plus on playaction you got the speed of
    Green to get to Rivers.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2007
  6. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    The Chargers' D is not at all what it is cracked up to be. I will do a larger post with offense and defense as well as end of year trends, but here are the breakdowns on the SD defense based on my points for/against style of analysis.

    PA - 18.9 vs. 19 ~ +.1

    Season minus the first two games
    (I exclude this not because they were the best two games of the year by SD, but because it was the Raider's first game of the year and it was the Kerry Collins led Titans. We all know that those are not indicative at all of what will happen on Sunday)
    PA - 21.1 vs. 19.6 ~ -1.5

    Season excluding the games Merriman missed
    PA - 16.3 vs. 19.8 ~ +3.5

    Games Merriman played minus the first two
    PA - 18.9 vs. 20.6 ~ +1.7

    This is a nice group that contains some very talented players. But there is no way that anyone could objectively look at these numbers and come away thinking that SD is a defensive force. Even the best of the above numbers (+3.5) more than two points away from what the Jets had been doing since their bye week. As I said before, if NE stops SD's pass rush, most will be surprised at how well NE moves on them.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2007
  7. boltssbbound

    boltssbbound On the Roster

    I'd love to know where you get your running inside versus running outside stats, since the rest of your stats are so inaccurate.

    The Chargers are 5th in the league in 3rd down conversion at 43.8%. How does this translate as "poor?"

    Rivers 9 Ints came in 7 games where the Bolts averaged 141 yards per game rushing, so your play action comment is totally bogus. Rivers actually had his worst games when LT's numbers were their highest. In Rivers' worst game of the year, versus KC, the Bolts rushed for 265 yards.

    I really don't know if you were just lying about the stats, or if you were looking at the wrong year, but you just got it almost all wrong. The Bolts thrive against power running teams and struggle against zone running teams. The Donks averaged 160 yards rushing in two games against us. The Bills rushed for 68 yards against us and the Browns rushed for 89. The last time we played KC, we gave up 90 yards rushing.

    The Bolts Pass D relinquished only .6 yards more per game than the Pats this year. Our completion percentage against was also within just a few percentage points of the Pats.

    Screens and draws have been fairly effective against the Bolts this year, but they seem to have gotten better at defending those the last few weeks.

    Again, thanks for the inaccurate analysis.
  8. boltssbbound

    boltssbbound On the Roster

    Does your analysis factor in "garbage time" points? Because in their last five games, the Bolts have allowed a total of 13 points in the first half, while jumping out to leads of 17-0, 28-3, 14-3, 10-0 and 27-7.
  9. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    No because it would require a lot more time than I have to do everything.

    The quick and dirty of it is if you look at how many total points better than the opposition allowed/scored the two teams are, the one that nets out the best average usually wins playoff matchups. So far I have not factored garbage time into things, but the stat has been 10-1 in games that I looked into.

    I am sure that SDs offense will certainly help their total score, but the points allwed figure is surprisingly mediocre.
  10. boltssbbound

    boltssbbound On the Roster

    So do you know the total score yet?
  11. Oswlek

    Oswlek Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Probably Thursday.
  12. FloridaPatsFan

    FloridaPatsFan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    There are a lot of posters here who love to digest the stats to come up with reasoning for why/why not a team will win. I look at the stats occasionally but I think stats can be useless when looking at the Pats on offense and defense. We are niether a primary passing or running team. We are both. Defensively, we will take away what you are trying to accomplish and make you go to plan B, or Plan C, if you have one.

    You San Diegoans have plenty of good reasons to be confident that you will win the game sunday. If my team went 14-2 and was playing at home, I would feel great about our chances.

    But instead of getting some wanna-be championship team, the Chargers reward is facing the Pats.....In a nutshell, its worst case scenario for Marty Schottenhiemer and Phillip Rivers.

    The Chargers might win, but honestly son, your great season is probably going to end Sunday. If there is one thing I know, one thing that Pats fans know, its this: The Chargers are a good team, but they are going to play a team that has won the biggest games of the year on the road when few would pick them to win. They are Champions with a burning hunger for more. And you guys are on the menu.......good luck.
  13. The Dude

    The Dude Banned

    you were favored by 12 over oakland and almost lost :singing:
  14. FloridaPatsFan

    FloridaPatsFan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Exactly. This is exactly what the Pats will feed on this week during practice.

    Not sure whats so funny about that...but go ahead and laugh.
  15. Mainefan

    Mainefan Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    The one thing I like best about fans of other teams. You rarely hear from them after the game.
  16. FloridaPatsFan

    FloridaPatsFan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Yup. losing will do that to ya.
  17. boltssbbound

    boltssbbound On the Roster

    So where is the guy that started this whacked out thread? All of the stats he cited were wrong. Is he just not going to respond?
  18. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa Supporter Supporter

    This probably is pretty much just an expansion of Tabz' comments... rip me a new one at will, if it seems "off". This is just how I see it:

    Been thinking about the D side of this, and I'm no guru, but here's where I'm going with it thus far -

    Base 3-4 D (vs. LT)
    The Pats' 2-gap 3-4 is made to stop the run first and foremost, and I think that's order #1 of the day. I know LT is as good outside as in, so the edge is obviously as important as the gaps - so this is where we get to see Rosey Colvin earn his way into his cap-stomping contract for next year, and we get to see just how good TBC has gotten. A lot of people forget that, as good as the SD running game is, we're within a hair of the best in the league at stopping the run, and are the best in the red zone.

    Other stuff
    The problem is, SD is not going to obligingly run the same play over and over, and there need to be answers for Gates and (somewhat less threateningly) Jackson. Both are oversized targets, and giving both "special attention" on every play is impossible. LT coming out of the backfield creates a mismatch as well.

    Defense on the offensive (getting to Rivers)
    A potential area of exploitation is Rivers as a new QB; as identified by other posters, rattling him early and often would be a sweet "wannahave," if it is not at odds with the "gottahaves" of defending the primary playmakers. To blitz or not to blitz? It is a huge gamble, especially against SD, especially coming from the "control the gaps" philosophy NE has, to feature a Pittsburgh-esque blitz attack. If NE comes out blitzing, I'd say early and often, until it does not work. Otherwise, you're building SD's confidence rather than detracting from it.

    Let's get physical
    Every time LT gets the ball, gets near the ball, or even smells like he's near the ball, he needs to be punished. I'm not talking about cheap shots, going for injuries, or any of that crap. I mean nasty, mean, solid hits, legal hits. Every time. This was a big part of the Super Bowl 36 game vis a vis Faulk, and if the Pats win, they'll have a tape of the SD game they should play after season, with different guys taking turns yelling "You got FAULKED UP!"

    Play the corners up in man coverage and keep away from soft zones. SD's receivers aren't scary fast (and Rivers, good as he has gotten, is no Manning,) so you don't need a cushion. It also gives you that bump moment, and you could pass over a guy to a safety, and let Samuel (especially) come back to support a run play or help in the middle. Seems to me Samuel is physical enough to handle that -- and of course if Rodney is 100%, you want to alternate bringing him in for run support/blitz, and putting him in coverage. You need these guys from the secondary coming at the line of scrimmage in turns, and in turns throw additional coverage at outlet receivers (Gates/Tomlinson.) Predictability will = death in that regard... if SD knows who is coming, and there will be open field underneath for Gates, it's over... ditto outlet passes to LT. But one thing is certain, letting the safeties consistently cover deep and keeping the CBs in coverage, will put the Pats back on their heels, having to eventually pit our red zone D against their red zone O, even if it comes a little at a time. We're going to have to gamble that we won't lose this game on the big aerial play, and go from there.

    Having that flexibility underneath will hinge on getting bumps on every receiver coming off the line, then herding the bastids to the outside (knocking them off their routes...) You have to pick your poison, and I would pick setting these guys comparatively free, man coverage... and see if Rivers can beat us deep.

    Gates, Gates, Gates... Gates is a read/react concern (or nightmare, whichever the case may be.) Both Gates and Tomlinson deserve instant reaction when the play does not unfold into a run play, but both need to be whacked off the line of scrimmage - that's a pretty quick read/react, but that is the one aspect of the game I trust the Pats with more than the Bolts. They've been there before, they're very sharp, and they're incredibly good as a team (i.e., being the right place each play, even if they're not the most athletic linebackers in the league.) We're definitely going to lose some of those mis-matches (LBs against Gates or Tomlinson...) and in those situations, it's still important that SD is punished even for success. Fundamentals first, make sure the guy's getting down... but punish the ballcarrier at all times (again cribbing from the SB 36 notes.)

    Beyond that, coverages will (as always) need to be mixed up, to catch Rivers off balance and keep him that way. But Rivers still needs to be second billing - take LT out of the game (or more realistically, contain LT,) and the Bolts become pedestrian. Confuse the issue vis a vis Gates, and they become frustrated. Throw in a zone blitz or two (scary as it sounds,) and you may rattle Rivers from the get-go -- assuming you pick the right side to zone-blitz (study that tape! Study them tendencies! rah rah sis boom bah.) Oh yeah, and when a guy catches a pass? Beat the crap out of him.


    I left this for last, because the Pats have the advantage the Bolts don't -- you can not take away one or two players and cripple the Pats' attack. Protecting Brady is job 1, of course, and using Maroney out of the backfield a lot would be an excellent wrinkle (as would an aerial attack to Gaffney/Caldwell/YourNameHere.) There's no particular receiver the Bolts can shut down and knock us off our game plan, because the NE offensive game plan is unusually resilient to the "great man" theory of football.

    The preference, of course, will be to keep the pace of the game brutal and grinding, using Corey to grind out the clock, and Maroney for explosive bursts, until and unless it's shown that SD can shut down our run game. I do not see that happening, ultimately. We may not do the job as well as LT will for the Bolts, attention or no attention, but we will be able to do the job four yards, five yards, three yards at a time, keeping the D fresh -- which they'll have to be, because they have their work cut out for them.

    But that's how I see this one -- won or lost in the trenches. We need to think about the secondary as being 3 or 4 guys pretty much on islands, to be able to handle the job underneath and in the trenches (barring any wizardry I fully expect to see from BB.)

    Okay, this post is long enough to contain about 50 basic football knowledge mistakes... have at it!

  19. tomlinson21

    tomlinson21 Rookie

    Good take, P. I think if that works out as you planned it: you win. I'm not so much worried about your running game. I'm more worried about your brady's passing ability and accuracy.

    The only problem Brady will have however is:
    1. Caldwell coughing up the "big one". He's notorious for that.
    2. Pass protection against 2 SD OLB's that have over 10 sacks each for the season.
    3. No huddle offense will be almost nearly impossible to do with a crowd that is hungry for it's 1st playoff win in over 10 years. Not like Brady's never been in those situations....but the Q's going to be rockin. Interesting to see how he audibles out there on Sunday.
    4. 2 ILB's in Godfrey and Edwards who play pass coverage like DB's.

    You guys can get us good if:
    1. Brady takes advantage of the middle of the field. For some reason that area is always left open.
    2. Run to Edwards side of the ball. He can't defend the run better than how he defends the pass.
    3. Get the ball out of Brady's hands as quickly as possible. Tough feat to do when Merriman's running down his throat all game long. Double team, triple team 56...there's another guy to worry about and that's Philipps. But if Brady can use the short, slant may pull it off.
  20. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! Supporter

    So the entire 2nd half is garbage time in your opinion?

    The Bills were down 17-0 at halftime scored two TD's in the first 7 minutes of the third quarter to make it 17-14 and then no one scored until LT scored with just over 3 minutes left in the game. Then Losman threw a TD with 30 seconds left to get within 3 and chance for an onside kick. How is that garbage time?

    The Broncos were down 28-3 at the Half then scored 17 points to make it 28-20 in the third quarter only to have your Chargers score 20 garbage time points in the 4th quarter to pull away. :rolleyes:

    The seachickens were down 7-0 at the half and then 13-7 after the third. They went up 17-13 in the 4th quarter, only to lose the game on a Jackson TD reception in garbage time (30 seconds left in the game) ;)

    You make it seem as if all the points were scored late in the 4th quarter when the game was out of hand and that the Chargers were in cruise control for the entire second half. That wasn't even close to being the case, as I have shown, every one of those games were down to a single posession during the second half.

    The KC game was low scoring for the most part. The only game that your premise holds true in is the Arizona game.
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2007
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