Got myself a nice mug of coffee to finally read through this. Judging by the length, it looks like you put forth a good effort. That's always appreciated.
AndyJohnson said:
RB. I'm OK with Dillon for 06, a bit concerend for 07, and wouldnt count on him beyond that. I see 2 choices here. First, bring in the 'RB of the future" now. That doesnt have to be a round 1 pick (would need to be day 1) and let him fit anywhere within those top 3 he is capable of today, and get ready to start by sometime in 07 or 08. Or stay the course, and find the replacement in FA, in 07 if Dillon isnt back to normal in 06 or later.
Good analysis. I agree that we should either draft a RB day one, or sign a low cost free agent, like LaBrandon Toefield or Jonathan Wells. These guys have been sitting behind starters for a few years, and I'd like to see what they could do with an opportunity to start. Personally, I'd do both, sign one of these guys and draft one, although if we sign a FA, the draft pick could be day 2. My guy is Joseph Addai out of LSU, in case you don't get to the draft forum.
FB. I am increasingly interested in a REAL FB. I dont think the one we need has to be expensive, possibly even a late round rookie. The only role he needs to play is a sledge hammer blocker. He will probably only be on the field 30% of the plays or so, because we want to use 2 TEs, but for those 30% of the plays a strong lead blocker would make a big difference. It seems BB values athleticism and pass catching out of FBs more than blocking, but with Pass, and Watson as really an Hback, we get that. A roster spot for a "Darryl Johnston type" seems warranted to me.
These guys can be drafted in the last round or signed as an undrafted free agent for peanuts. I'm not opposed to doing that. A guy, for example like Shawn Willis, 6-1, 260 , out of Oklahoma State. But I think it's an unnecessary use of a roster spot. I don't think he'll be on the field for 15% of the plays, let alone 30.
I assume we lock up either Branch or Givens long term, but not both. In house Davis or Bethel could be (3) long term and possibly (4). Troy Brown is the 2nd half of 3, but for 1 yr at best. Maybe its just wishful thinking but I believe if Bethel Johnson can have a healthy off-season, camp and season, he can break out in 06.We need a major move at this position in one way or another. A Dwight or similar is fine as 5 for me.
Resign Givens or replace him retain 2 of Johnson, Davis and Brown, bring back Dwight or a similar guy. I would not object to a high draft pick plus Branch, Johnson, Davis, Dwight/replacement.
Obviously everything hinges on Givens' fate.
If he stays, then we really only need some youth, provided Andre Davis signs. I'll admit I'm higher on Davis than most. I watched a lot of Browns games his first two years in the league, and he was a very good young receiver. Then got hurt, then got into the Butch Davis doghouse. If he's healthy, and if he's bright enough to get the playbook, then I believe he could replace Givens at number two, which means we have to sign a #3 in free agency. Derek Armstrong in Houston is an intriguing and affordable possibility. He caught everything thrown his way last year. How about Fred Mitchell? I'd do that for the comedy. The draft offers good value in the second and third round for #2/3 types. Hagen, Hass, Baskett, Stovall. The only first round guy that I think will fit in here is Chad Jackson. And if we draft him while keeping Givens, it might not look so good for Branch next off-season. I expect Troy to stick around for another year. He quietly had a very good 2005. If Davis re-signs, I think Bethel leaves. We'll have Hobbs and Davis plus any rookies, possibly Zuriel Smith, as KRs, and Bethel just doesn't seem to "get" playing WR. QBs, OLs, ILBs, CBs often take years to develop. WRs should not. If Johnson comes back, I'm not counting him towards the WR contingent. There should be a spot available if Bam Childress, Mike McGrew, or some other project merits it. I don't see Dwight returning unless we lose Davis and Givens. So, for the WR position, I see four scenarios, pending the outcomes of Givens and Davis:
1. Branch 2. Givens 3. Davis 4. Brown 5. Rook/PS/NFLE
1. Branch 2. Givens 3. FA/Brown 4. Rook/Brown 5. Rook/PS/NFLE
1. Branch 2. Davis/FA 3. Davis/FA 4. Brown 5. Rook/PS/NFLE
1. Branch 2. FA 3. Brown 4. Dwight 5. Rook/PS/NFLE
OL. Light is a SB caliber LT. Hell, we have won it 3 of the 4 years he played. Mankins is going to be good for a long time, and could play RG, LG, or RT and is an option to slide to LT if needed. Kaczur has a future, I'd forget all else we have today and make a decision on the best postions long term for these guys, potentially that being the right side of the OL for the next 10 years. I'm OK with Koppen but dont see him here long term, first because he may choose to leave as a FA, but second because I see him as a pretty good player, not exceptional, and those guys don't stay Pats in their FA year. There are blocks here for an outstanding OL. I would use a #1, or at least #2 or a big FA signing to round out this group. A 'pro-bowl quality' OL added to what we have would give us one of the best OLs in the NFL. Neal isnt the guy IMO. For depth we have the 'graduates of the developmetal program'. Bottom line, find a stud to start at LG, RG, or RT and we have one of the best, and deepest OLs in the NFL.
Given our draft position, I wouldn't draft an OL in the first two rounds. It's hard for me to imagine any rookie besides Ferguson to come in and improve our OT situation next year. Saying Light is a SB quality OT to me is like saying Ken Walter is a SB quality Punter. He's good enough to win with, but hardly elite. I think Neal and Koppen are much better at their positions than Light is at his. I like the method of drafting OL in the middle rounds and coach them up. If a big ticket FA wants to sign here, great. Of course, if Belichick thinks a guy (Mankins, for example) can walk in and start from day one, then I hope he drafts him early.
DT- Wilfork is becoming a stud, there is no one behind him. Wright is a jag, his ability to also play DE says he probably gets a roster spot.
I agree. I can see one being drafted on day one, but would prefer a FA vet.
OLB- Colvin had a GREAT year. McGinest gets another year, but should be splitting time so the next in line is ready for 07. That could mean Vrabel back outside, or a new player brought in who may get 30% of Willies snaps and 10-20 of Colvins, preparing to start in 07. Whether Vrabel is outside or inside determines IMO whether we need an immediate impact guy, or someone who can start getting some real reps in 07.
Agreed. This could be the first round pick this year (Lawson?).
ILB- Bruschi appears to have 2-3 good years left and his replacement can be back-burnered. The Vrable decision to me indicate whether we need an immediate impact guy at ILB or at OLB, but we need one. Beisel works for me as a backup. Jags and s/ters work behind the top 3 at ILB just as OLB.
I think we need to draft one in the mid-rounds and have him play STs right now. The better of he or Claridge will be counted on to contribute in '07.
CB- I like Samuel and think he is a long term fixture. Hobbs may or may not be, but for 2007, I wouldnt want to count on him starting. Gay is the same category. I am of the belief we didnt see the real Starks this year, and also of the belief he killed our season. I'd like to see a starting caliber FA corner brought in. Not a super-stud, but a guy we are good with as a starter. I think we keep Chad Scott for depth, and if Hawkins stays he can also play corner if the injuries mount ONCE AGAIN.
I'm ok with your analysis. I think, as someone already mentioned, that it's almost always worth taking a CB early. It seems to be a position that, unless your top 3 are the 1978 Michael Haynes, the 1995 Deion Sanders, and the 2000 Charles Woodson, you should always be striving to improve. "You can never have enough guys who can cover," Belichick after signing Terrell Buckley for his first tour of duty.
S- I think Wilson is a fixture. Hawkins works for me as a 3rd/4th safety. Harrison will be back. It seems the time to bring in a stud in the making safety, in the 2nd or 3rd round. A similar pick is hedged by having Hawkins still here, and gives us the potnetial Harrison replacement, as well as the ability to shift Wilson to corner.
I think we're going to see a tandem of Wilson/Sanders until Harrison is healthy. Good SS types can always be gotten late in the draft. I think we need to keep Hawkins as well.
ST- I love AV, but his cap number is too much. I will be fine if he returns and fine if he doesnt. Miller is fine, as is Paxton.
I agree. It seems to me BB is pretty good at finding kickers. Three guys he brought in to challenge Vinatieri ended up as kickers for other teams (Dawson, Pochman, Gould). AV would be an idiot not to work something out, being a local hero and getting some pretty big endorsements in New England. But I think we've reached our limit on what we should be paying a kicker. There's no way he should be franchised again.
Draft
1) Stud OL -
2) Safety
3) RB LB
4) WR DT
5) FB
6) K
7) OL (you can never have enough young guys on the OL)
In theory I'm cool with the OL in round one. In practice, I don't see the value being there. Good work.
