Adam vs. Ryan Longwell

[stcjones]

great point

I chuckle that so many here presume we could get Longwell, let alone for less.

Ryan is far more vocal than Adam, and a lot less loyal. He wants to be the highest paid kicker in the league. He also prefers to move indoors as a means of extending his career and padding his stats. He is quite open about his feeling that the deal Rackers got in Arizona is proof positive that one man's junk (Cincy cut him loose as an outdoor kicker) is another teams treasure (Az gave him a $3M signing bonus last year).

Longwell isn't coming here for a contract that keeps him the highest paid (whatever that really means in Belioli speak - and we don't know) but PAYS HIM NO GUARANTEED MONEY OR SIGNING BONUS either. He will have pretty much the same suitors as Adam and probably a very similar pricetag. Thing about comparing apples and apples when the apples are kickers is we're talking the difference of a few hundred thousand as opposed to a few million difference.

Felger, who was born and raised a cheese head, says this guy is a good outdoor kicker relatively speaking but not nearly in Adam's league. And that's kicking without any real pressure since the Pack has been in also ran status for most of his time there - and when a Packers game is on the line in or out of Lambeau they usually sink or swim on Brett's arm and judgement. Some here also question Adam's KO capacity, but Longwell's leg is a lot shorter both last season and over his career.

I tend to agree with Felger that if Adam goes over what amounts to a few hundred thousand a year, whether in salary or amortized signing bonus, the next guy will do fine - until he misses his first game winning or clinching kick. Then a lot of folks will be singing another tune.

good post on longwell

 

[smg93]

That photo was just a little humor that you didn't get.

Well, it was an attempt at humor that obviously didn't come across that way to me the first time. When your first line in this whole thread is "I really don't need to look at the stats", that's already pretty adversarial considering this thread started with stats. But anyway, it's almost as if we are arguing while on similar sides, so you're right, enough already. There's no point to this anymore.

This thread was meant to allay the fears of so many patriot fans who feel that AV is irreplaceable. I just wanted to say we have options just in case AV decides to leave.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

This thread was meant to allay the fears of so many patriot fans who feel that AV is irreplaceable. I just wanted to say we have options just in case AV decides to leave.

Here s a thread discussing Ryan Longwell and whether or not the Packers should have franchise or transition tagged him. Seems a number of Packer fans aren't all that high on Longwell. Issues like whining and pointing fingers at his holder, his questionable KO ability, and apparently he had some game losing misses this season.

BTW - in 2001 when Adam was kicking us into a Superbowl victory the highest paid kicker in the league by virtue of the $7.5M contract he had just signed was apparently.....Ryan Longwell.

FWIW

http://timesfour.com/groupee/forums/a/tpc/f/938109321/m/4741041011

 

[SoonerPatriot]

I did some research through nfl.com and found these 2005 and career stats for both these kickers.

A.V.- 6' 0", 202 lbs.
R.L. - 6'0", 200 lbs.

Kicking:

both are perfect from inside 19 yards throughout their careers

from 20 -29 AV is 96%, RL is 92%

from 30 -39 AV is 83%, RL is 87%

from 40 - 49 AV is 71%, RL is 72%

from 50+ AV is 47%, RL is 59%

Total kicks in career AV is 81.9%, RL is 81.6% ( if you multiplied the percentage difference by RL's number of total kicks of 277 in his career, that only equates to about one more kick made by AV,

Kickoffs

In 2005 AV's avg is 61.7 Yards, Net is 39.8 Yards
In 2005 RL's avg is 60.9 Yards, Net is 39.3 Yards

Career AV's avg is 62.4 Yards, Net is 40.9 Yards
Career RL's avg is 61.1 Yards, Net is 39.7 Yards

The POINT of this exercise is not to say who is better than whom. AV obviously has the edge in terms of being Mr. Clutch in Playoffs, no question about that. But in terms of 2005 and Career stats, they match up quite favorably. I'd love to have Adam back but if he goes somewhere else, like GB for example, Ryan Longwell might be a good fit for us. Plus, he'll probably come here for less money which means more cap space for us.

Here's what it comes down to for me. Would Ryan Longwell have made both the kicks against the Raiders? Would he have made both the kicks against St. Louis and Carolina?

I say no.

If Adam goes that's too bad. It's business. But I find it hard to reduce his contributions to this team over the years as just some guy who could be replaced by Ryan Longwell. If he goes, we take a pretty big hit at the position regardless of who they bring in.

 

[Alk]

Here's what it comes down to for me. Would Ryan Longwell have made both the kicks against the Raiders? Would he have made both the kicks against St. Louis and Carolina?

I say no.

If Adam goes that's too bad. It's business. But I find it hard to reduce his contributions to this team over the years as just some guy who could be replaced by Ryan Longwell. If he goes, we take a pretty big hit at the position regardless of who they bring in.

He probably couldn't have made that big kick in the Raiders game but hell, I bet Vinatieri only makes that kick once, maybe twice in 10 tries. As for the rest? I have no doubt that Longwell could have made those kicks in both Super Bowls.

 

[SoonerPatriot]

He probably couldn't have made that big kick in the Raiders game but hell, I bet Vinatieri only makes that kick once, maybe twice in 10 tries. As for the rest? I have no doubt that Longwell could have made those kicks in both Super Bowls.

I don't know. It's hard to say. A lot of things can go wrong executing a kick, not the least of which is the pucker factor a player might have working against them. Adam has little to no pucker factor. It's proven. We really don't know about Longwell. He's a nice kicker, but until you've actually done it...

If Longwell couldnt have made the kick against the raiders we'd have one less SB.

 

[smg93]

The judgements on whether Longwell could have mad this kick or that kick is unfortunately something that none of us will ever be able to determine. Those types of water cooler debates will always strike up emotional reactions. Adam is one of the faces of the team after all. The reason why I chose to put down statistics is because they are an unemotional method of studying player performances. I'm sure that if you asked our front office, much of their evaluations are based on factual representation through video tape and statistics. If this is a business then that is the only way one can make consistent decision making throughout the years. I am in no way reducing Adam's contributions to the team and you will never see me post anything like that because I appreciate everything he has done for the team. I think it's unfair to say that my posts were in any way disparaging to Adam Vinatieri. I reiterate, I would like Adam back but just because so many of us want him back, doesn't necessarily mean that he will be.

There are too many on this board who are so passionate about Adam that it pains them to read about the possibility of AV's replacements if he decided to leave. If he does, we'll still need a kicker wont we? All I know is this, you can bet the farm that BB and Pioli are prepared for a scenario that sees AV choosing to play in a different uniform next year. They must have alternatives in their mind. Whether that's Longwell, a draft choice or a street free agent, I do not know. But from a measurable statistical analysis, I put Longwell up as an example that there are others in the Kicker position who we could look at if AV decides to leave. The feedback I see sometimes on this board is that it's Adam or nothing. Great, if he leaves we'll just have Flutie drop kick all the time then. One thing I do agree with is that it would be very painful for me to see Adam V. leave.