I must have read a dozen articles this week describing Adam Vinatieri as "the greatest clutch kicker in the history of the NFL" or something similar. How do you make such a determination? As nearly as I can tell this reputation comes from hitting kicks of: 45 yards to force OT in the snow 23 yards to win in the snow 48 yards to win in a dome 41 yards to win in a dome Its not that I don't appreciate his performance. But what are the odds of an NFL kicker going 4-0 on those kicks? If all Field Goals were 80% likely to be successful, we'd expect this to happen 41% of the time. Is there actually something special about Adam V. ? Or is he a good kicker who happened to have above average luck on the four kicks that mattered most in his career.