5 starters and 3 captains set to hit the free agent market

[RayClay]

I know the team is coming off a Super Bowl win so the level of concern is diminished by that recent success. That said there is legitimate reason for concern.

Ridley - starting RB
Vereen - starting 3DRB
Connolly - starting LG and offensive captain
Wilfork - starting NT and defensive captain

McCourty - starting FS and defensive captain

Baring some last minute contract these players are all going to hit the UFA market on Tuesday. I am truly shocked that we have gotten this point with McCourty and Revis, Devin should have been extended last offseason, his brother accepted an extension from the Titans so I do not believe this was a case where he was determined to hit the open market. Revis I do not understand, why put a $25M number on year 2 and let it get to this point? Now we will have $5M in dead money against the cap even if we sign him later in the offseason. Wilfork, I shocked we couldn't get him to take a pay cut, on top of that Siliga is RFA and Branch is a UFA so unless you have 2 smaller DT in Chris Jones and Easley on the roster.

I think it is interesting how many of us talked about the Broncos going all last season, but their cap situation is significantly better than us, and they still have their star CB under contract (Talib).

I know a segment of posters will read this OP and hit the dislike/disagree button, having been an active participant of this board for years I expect that there will be some who are for some odd reason fueled by anger for my recognition of what could easily be viewed as mistakes, mismanaged cap space, etc. For those of you who are able to see the reality of the situation, you are likely concerned, I know I am, so to you who are concerned the big question, how does this get fixed? We may lose 1A and 1B of our running game, the key to our run defense and the 2 key players in our secondary.

The Pats realize there's a market for the players, so the only thing they can do now is let them find the market then see who they can afford. I don't think they wanted to tie up any money before Revis. They won SB, player become more valuable. I hope they sign them all, but you can't force players to sign long term contracts ahead and those can backfire on you (or gun fire on you).

 

[RayClay]

We weren't the best team in the NFL by a big variance and it's not about signing other FAs it's about signing our own. I don't see us brining McCourty back for $9M and he will likely get that type of offer. Vereen is going to see Donald Brown type money, don't see that happening here. Oh and Revis, I mean the Jets could be willing to give him the stadium. How are you not concerned.

Keep calm and keep BB on.

 

[patfanken]

What did he gamble? He had a QB who if was healthy would have beaten Indy and most likely had home field vs the Pats? His TE got hurt.

...and as I understand it are $17m under the cap w/ the PM coupon of $4m.

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/denver-broncos/

You have to be careful with how you read cap room numbers, Bob. In a vacuum they can become distorted. That $17MM becomes less appealing if the Broncos only have 35 guys currently under contract. That's not a lot of money if you have to sign 16 more guys

It's one of my minor pet peeves is that the media never reports how much cap room teams have, PLUS how many players they have under contract. You really can't determine how much teams really have to spend on high end FA's without knowing how many players they have to sign to get to the 51 limit.

 

[mgteich]

You have to be careful with how you read cap room numbers, Bob. In a vacuum they can become distorted. That $17MM becomes less appealing if the Broncos only have 35 guys currently under contract. That's not a lot of money if you have to sign 16 more guys

It's one of my minor pet peeves is that the media never reports how much cap room teams have, PLUS how many players they have under contract. You really can't determine how much teams really have to spend on high end FA's without knowing how many players they have to sign to get to the 51 limit.

I believe that everyone has 51 players under contract at this point.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

Only three teams are over the cap: KC, NE and NO.

If we consider Revis an unsigned free agent, then we are more then $15M under, a bit less than DEN.

 

[RobertWeathers]

You have to be careful with how you read cap room numbers, Bob. In a vacuum they can become distorted. That $17MM becomes less appealing if the Broncos only have 35 guys currently under contract. That's not a lot of money if you have to sign 16 more guys

It's one of my minor pet peeves is that the media never reports how much cap room teams have, PLUS how many players they have under contract. You really can't determine how much teams really have to spend on high end FA's without knowing how many players they have to sign to get to the 51 limit.

I agree in principal but the Broncos have ~60 players under contract for 2015.
http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/denver-broncos

 

[RobertWeathers]

I believe that everyone has 51 players under contract at this point.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

Only three teams are over the cap: KC, NE and NO.

If we consider Revis an unsigned free agent, then we are more then $15M under, a bit less than DEN.

Right on the Pats and in doing some fuzzy math they can get to ~$25m under in a New York minute (Amendola, Mayo, Solder extension)

 

[RayClay]

BY DEFINITION, if Belichick chose to lose a player, then the player wasn't worth keeping.

Isn't this argument a bit circular?

I don't think so. we've cut older players and players at positions we thought we could replace. If we messed up by cutting a relatively affordable player that did great elsewhere and we couldn't replace it would stick out. I can't think of one.

 

[mgteich]

Right on the Pats and in doing some fuzzy math they can get to ~$25m under in a New York minute (Amendola, Mayo, Solder extension)

Amendola - $2M
Mayo - $4M (but unlikely until he passes a physical
Solder - $3M

So, yes, I agree.

We could also restructure the following for another $13M bringing us to a potential $38M
Brady - $4.6M
Gronk - 3.5
Gost - 2.0
Browner 1.9
Arrington 1.0

ISSUES
1) Who out there would really help the defense? Clearly, we will add a NT and likely a CB if both McCourty and Revis are gone.

2) The offense will need to add a 3rd down RB, an OG and a WR.

CONCLUSION
We have enough cap room to do a lot, if McCourty or Revis are gone. $25M would probably be plenty to deal add what is listed above and still have the $6M needed for later. A mayo restructure could be saved for that purpose.

Also, I don't see us as an improved team if we replace Wilfork, Amendola, Connolly and Vereen.
It seems like we would get a minor improvement over at best 2014 at best.

And then we need to account for the major losses of McCourty and Revis.

BOTTOM LINE
I just don't see us losing Revis and getting better. However, Belichick could always surprise by signing Ngata and Murray.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't think so. we've cut older players and players at positions we thought we could replace. If we messed up by cutting a relatively affordable player that did great elsewhere and we couldn't replace it would stick out. I can't think of one.

Maybe not a "cut" but things got hostile with Deion Branch in 06 and they traded him.

They wanted Deion but did not want to pay the $13m signing bonus and $23 over the 1st 3 years he received in SEA.

With all that said, they went to the AFCCG in 06 and the #1 pick turned into Merriweather.

Not sure about that one still.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Amendola - $2M
Mayo - $4M (but unlikely until he passes a physical
Solder - $3M

So, yes, I agree.

We could also restructure the following for another $13M bringing us to a potential $38M
Brady - $4.6M
Gronk - 3.5
Gost - 2.0
Browner 1.9
Arrington 1.0

ISSUES
1) Who out there would really help the defense? Clearly, we will add a NT and likely a CB if both McCourty and Revis are gone.

2) The offense will need to add a 3rd down RB, an OG and a WR.

CONCLUSION
We have enough cap room to do a lot, if McCourty or Revis are gone. $25M would probably be plenty to deal add what is listed above and still have the $6M needed for later. A mayo restructure could be saved for that purpose.

Also, I don't see us as an improved team if we replace Wilfork, Amendola, Connolly and Vereen.
It seems like we would get a minor improvement over at best 2014 at best.

And then we need to account for the major losses of McCourty and Revis.

BOTTOM LINE
I just don't see us losing Revis and getting better. However, Belichick could always surprise by signing Ngata and Murray.

Maybe or pay out extensions to Jones, HT and Collins so they hit 2015 and 2016. I don't think anyone would complain about that thought process -unless the team goes 8-8 in 2015

 

[RayClay]

Maybe not a "cut" but things got hostile with Deion Branch in 06 and they traded him.

They wanted Deion but did not want to pay the $13m signing bonus and $23 over the 1st 3 years he received in SEA.

With all that said, they went to the AFCCG in 06 and the #1 pick turned into Merriweather.

Not sure about that one still.

Branch was under contract for the next year, he was not a free agent. Had they let him screw the team at the last minute,it would have opened the floodgate for every player to decide the week before the season they wanted a new contract or else.

Matching a signing bonus for a player who is already signed?

 

[supafly]

Maybe or pay out extensions to Jones, HT and Collins so they hit 2015 and 2016. I don't think anyone would complain about that thought process -unless the team goes 8-8 in 2015

Miguel notes that Jamie Collins cannot be extended this year, per the CBA. I'm rather surprised that people are already bringing him up only 2 years into his rookie deal. Pretty soon we'll start worrying about rookies who have solid years, and what we're going to do 3-4 years down the road (sarcasm).

Any potential extension of Hightower or Chandler Jones would also likely increase their 2015 cap hits, so that's unlikely to free up any money as well. None of these 3 players are going to help the 2015 cause.

 

[mgteich]

Pretty soon we'll start worrying about rookies who have solid years, and what we're going to do 3-4 years down the road (sarcasm).

Hence the reason for the NFL rule to wait at least two years on a rookie contract.

 

[mayoclinic]

Now there are apparently only 4 starters and 2 captains who are FAs.

 

[meatface]

Connolly will probably be back too, so the only captain we will likely lose wilfork.

 

[mgteich]

Connolly will probably be back too, so the only captain we will likely lose wilfork.

Do you mean to say that the patriots will likely have re-signed free agent captains of the offense (Connolly), defense (McCourty) and special teams (Slater)? Is Gostkowski also a captain?

So, yes, we might lose one captain, or perhaps he will re-sign and we will lose him next year.

 

[meatface]

Do you mean to say that the patriots will likely have re-signed free agent captains of the offense (Connolly), defense (McCourty) and special teams (Slater)? Is Gostkowski also a captain?

So, yes, we might lose one captain, or perhaps he will re-sign and we will lose him next year.

I mean that McCourty is a captain and he re-signed and I also expect that Dan Connolly will re-sign, I however do not expect Vince wilfork to return. This would mean that we would only lose 1 captain from last year's team

 

[Fencer]

Reacting late to the OP, I'd say:

• McCourty is staying.
• Revis is probably staying.
• Connolly is probably staying.
• Ridley is probably not staying only because he's not sure he's the starter.
• Wilfork could yet go either way.
• Gost was of a status to be on the list, but anyhow he's staying.
• If Wilfork goes, Ninkovich will probably be elected as a captain.
• The obvious candidates for offensive captain after Brady and Connolly are goofballs or German. I'd lay the odds in favor of Edelman first, the more sober (literally) but less vocal Vollmer second, and Gronk a distant third. I do think Brady won't be the only offensive captain, even if Connolly goes; the guys will want somebody who's more of a peer as well.

I know the team is coming off a Super Bowl win so the level of concern is diminished by that recent success. That said there is legitimate reason for concern.

Ridley - starting RB
Vereen - starting 3DRB
Connolly - starting LG and offensive captain
Wilfork - starting NT and defensive captain

McCourty - starting FS and defensive captain

Baring some last minute contract these players are all going to hit the UFA market on Tuesday. I am truly shocked that we have gotten this point with McCourty and Revis, Devin should have been extended last offseason, his brother accepted an extension from the Titans so I do not believe this was a case where he was determined to hit the open market. Revis I do not understand, why put a $25M number on year 2 and let it get to this point? Now we will have $5M in dead money against the cap even if we sign him later in the offseason. Wilfork, I shocked we couldn't get him to take a pay cut, on top of that Siliga is RFA and Branch is a UFA so unless you have 2 smaller DT in Chris Jones and Easley on the roster.

I think it is interesting how many of us talked about the Broncos going all last season, but their cap situation is significantly better than us, and they still have their star CB under contract (Talib).

I know a segment of posters will read this OP and hit the dislike/disagree button, having been an active participant of this board for years I expect that there will be some who are for some odd reason fueled by anger for my recognition of what could easily be viewed as mistakes, mismanaged cap space, etc. For those of you who are able to see the reality of the situation, you are likely concerned, I know I am, so to you who are concerned the big question, how does this get fixed? We may lose 1A and 1B of our running game, the key to our run defense and the 2 key players in our secondary.

 

[Ivan]

WE'RE DOOMED!

Why didn't they give Harbaugh 70 million when they had the chance??????

 

[RobertWeathers]

Branch was under contract for the next year, he was not a free agent. Had they let him screw the team at the last minute,it would have opened the floodgate for every player to decide the week before the season they wanted a new contract or else.

Matching a signing bonus for a player who is already signed?

Your post was around cutting a relatively affordable player that did great elsewhere that they couldn't replace.

Certainly Branch was not a cut but was traded b/c the team could not agree to terms on an extension and they thought that they could replace him. While they did have success in 06, they did not backfill the position with the same level of talent.

The Branch situation was brewing all offseason and all TC. It was not a week before the season issue.