2009 Franchise Tag Number for QBs

[JoeSixPat]

There in a nutshell is the conundrum the Pats org finds itself in. Over $15M tied up for a potential 1st or couple 2nd round picks used on untried college players with an opportunity cost of possibly not extending key KNOWN contributors and possibly not signing a top rank known quantity FA quickly enough. That's why Belioli gets the big bucks. 5 stars.

But there is no "conundrum" for anyone who rejects the idea that salary makes any difference at all. There's a long list of football "experts" on this board who laughed off any such consideration just one week ago.

Schefter said last week he's looking at Aaron Rogers type money which was 6/$65M with $20M guaranteed. Derek Anderson started for 15/16ths of a season and I believe got $13M guaranteed on just a 3 year $24M deal...designed to retain him in the interim on a team where he had a shot at remaining the starter - so again, apples and oranges.

Couple of other things to keep in mind. The tag is salary and as such paid out over the course of the 17 week season. Signing bonus is paid up front, so even a $12M signing bonus is effectively worth more than the tag because you have the capacity to invest it in March-April as opposed to receiving it in $859K increments between September and December 2009. And when a player signs a new long term deal the investment in cash, cap and even picks usually guarantees him (implicitly) he will see the first 3 years of his deal. For Cassel that could be closer to $25-30M...

But the most significant concern Cassel will have regarding his future guarantees is that he be starting for a team potentially long term. Here he's not going to get that. When Brady is ready to go, and that projects to be as early as pre season 2009, he's out of any realistic shot at starting here. And in the NFL, out of sight is out of mind. He can't compete with the next great starting prospect who emerges from the bench. And there is no way this value oriented HC will want him to. O'Connell is next up off the bench, and if he doesn't develop sufficiently they will have guys in to compete with him, including Gutierrez, to cover contingincies. I know some here struggle to accept that, but they struggled to accept the last untested backup here too just 10 weeks ago...

If we have barely double digit millions in available cap entering FA we won't be constrained over the first few weeks when we are seldom active anyway. And there are lots of ways to insure we do that won't impact us down the road because that tag will come off the cap once he's traded.

A few things - while there might be some apples to oranges comparisons, at the end of the day we're still talking about starting QB guranteed money. Derek Anderson signs a multi year deal and gets $13 million guaranteed. Cassel can sign the franchise tender and get more than that guranteed for a one year contract - and be able to go out on the market in a potential uncapped year to get much much more than that guranteed one year later.

Also - please correct me if I'm wrong - but the $14 million IS guranteed, correct? If he signs the tender and then is injured, he still gets the full amount - though simply gets it doled out throughout the season - correct?

It doesn't strike me as a major hardship to actually wait 16 weeks to collect a cool $14 million for one year.

I recognize that Cassel wants to start - and I recognize that he wants to maximize guranteed money in case of injury. But I'm just trying to play Devil's advocate here and pose the following notion:

From what I'm gathering from all of you, Cassel could expect to see $21 million guranteed as part of a long term contract. Typically such a contract would have a pretty low salary for the first few years, meaning that the guranteed money is the vast majority of the "real" money in such a contract. But let's be generous and tack on another $4 million for year 2

That's $25 million over 2 years.

Conversly, if Cassel signed the tender, took $14 million for one year, and was a free agent again in 2010 - a potential uncapped year.

Let's say inflation pushes that $21 million to $25 million guranteed in 2010. Add that to the $14 million in 2009 and we're nearing $40 million over 2 years.

$40 million vs. $25 million. Which would you take?

I'm just thinking out loud here - though many refuse to believe it there's a TON of variables at play here that I don't think any of us can fully compute at this time - such as questions about Brady's health, an actual interest in holding onto Cassel for a season, or use of Cassel for part of a season, or Cassel's interest in maximizing guranteed money even if it means waiting until a potential uncapped year to realize a long term contract and starting position.

And while its not rocket science, I still think its a bit more complicated than those who laughed off any notion of complications for a tag and trade just a few days ago.