When you say “the fix is in” what do you mean?

YOUGOTMOSSED said:

This is what inevitably happens when corporations/big money get its way in handling any competitive sport. It's naturally going to do whatever it can get away with to maximize profits and any notions of "competitive integrity" are, at best, just for show.

Sometimes a whistleblower will come forward like Tim Donaghy did in the NBA to confirm what we already suspected all along but what good does that do? Did the NBA stop making money as a result of that revelation?

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Don't know but since that Kings Laker series in 02 I've watched only 1 game and that was the closing game for Boston in 08.

If there ever is a whistleblower ref for the NFL I'll burn my gear and say goodbye to the entire sport for good. I'm already on the edge as it with suspicion of the Patriots treatment over the last 8 years.

aluminum seats said:

The officiating on Sunday night was atrocious, and one-sided. Unless you’re a rabid Broncos fan, this is something everyone agrees on. (And even on their boards, there’s this gritted-teeth thing going on where they accept that several calls were bad, but throw in the reflexive, “yeah, but they didn’t call holds against us!” whining.)

So, it sucked. And the league has shown a very real hostility towards the Pats.

But when I see posts here saying “the fix was in” on Sunday…apparently not used as hyperbole or just as an expression….well. Hmmm.

I think you can make the argument that the league (and league-wide, meaning other teams, fans, and as we heard about Sunday, press) has such a fixation on the Pats, and in many ways it’s a negative fixation, that the refs marinade in this stew and it shows up as bias against the Pats. We’re seeing Gronk agree with that one today... @JMC00 posting the SI cover with a hold…But as for a “fix” beyond that? A “ok refs, here’s what you’re gonna do….?” No.

But do others feel differently? That there is an actual fix going on? Not in the mood for a poll, just a question.

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They are fixing games and they've been influencing the outcome of games for years, it just wasn't as obvious until several seasons ago. The NFL's and the other sports leagues goals are too make cash. The players may not be aware of the fix, but the coaches know. Check out the play calling in the 4th quarter of the SEA/GB playoff game last season. Wilson gets smoked all game but GB decides to try something new in the 4th that led to Wilson's comeback. Hype machine back in full effect. The play calling in the NE/DEN game was awful, it was almost as if Belichick and McDaniels wanted to keep Denver in the game.

The league wanted Denver to win that game. They knew they would need assistance from the officials because Osweiler would suck due to inexperience and so they screwed up some other lesser/irrelevant games to distract people from what's really going on. They want to call it a referee problem or "there's too many rules!!!" That's the narrative the NFL and its affiliates in the media wants you to believe. Anybody who isn't blinded by their love for the NFL can see this as plain as day.

It's the WWE and I have no problem with that, until it loses its starpower. Call me crazy but I see what I see. Stuff on TV is only as real as we make it.

I am not claiming to believe this is true, but this is what I think it means to say "the fix is in". It has to mean something beyond calls against this team because of some grudge. By fixing I mean intentionally calling certain judgment calls and penalties more strict or more lenient based on how the course of the game is going. I think there could be of a number of different reasons why a ref might "fix" in this way:

1. To keep nationally televised games close for increased viewership.
2. To promote or hinder particular teams to keep the playoff race competitive, or generally maintain parity.
3. To help vegas lose less money against the spread if the vast majority of bets were for one team.
4. To make games more close for the home crowd.

Again, I am not saying I believe that the games are fixed in these ways, but sometimes it sure seems like it is. I have trouble believing that the coaching staff or the players are in on it however. Belichick and Brady seem genuinely angry when there is a bad call.

The number of bad calls against the Pats on Sunday was far enough outside any reasonably derived standard deviation around the Normal Distribution of what we might call "The Expected (Mean) Number of Bad Calls against one team in a game" that there are only two possible explanations:

One, the game was the kind of "Outlier" that creates the Normal Distribution in the first place.
Two, there was an external agency that skewed the curve in this case.

If the Pats hadn't had the history they had this offseason with Owners and the League Office, I'd certainly go with explanation "One" above.

However, given what happened this offseason, I'm going with "Two."

In other words, the number of calls that disadvantaged the Patriots was so significant, that I am going to conclude that somehow, someway, by some manner of means, "The fix was in."

Officials either acted in a biased manner without any inducement.

Or there was some form of inducement to influence their behavior. That inducement could range from "I know the League Office has it in for the Patriots, so it will help me get in their good graces if I make a call that plays to how they feel about the team" to "Somebody paid me."

Ice_Ice_Brady said:

I generally don't believe in big conspiracies because people can't keep their mouths shut. This would involve key people in the NFL front office directing the officials to essentially fix a game. Between the NFL suits and officiating crew, that's over five people. Even if it is just the lead official, that's too many people. People talk, blackmail, want to sell their stories eventually. Things almost always come up to the surface. Do you really think Goodell/owners/NFL suits would really open them up to lawsuits, major losses of revenue, and one of the largest scandals in sports history, just because they have a grudge against the Patriots? Many would lose their job and reputation immediately and would be investigated as criminals. I'm sure these people have families are big celebrities around their friends in being associated with the league...all that down the drain, for what again? And in addition to that, it's not like the Patriots have gotten jobbed in other games this season. Yes, they have been flagged for a disproportionate amount of OPIs, but nowhere near the level of screwjob they got in Denver. It's much more likely this wasn't a coordinated conspiracy but rather than emotional bias of one of several refs in that game.

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It's not about the Patriots, its about "what's best for business." An old Tom Brady continuing to win SBs at his age, slows down the hype of younger, up and coming stars, who could've won championships and captured all the glory and become the next Tom Brady for the next generation, at this point. As long as Brady and Belichick stays together, there ain't no happening for these "young studs."

Why do you think they paid that girl extra to reveal Favre's infamous photo? He wouldn't go away and they were anxious to hype up Rodgers. Favre finally cracked from humiliation. Deflategate was created to attack Brady, that's why they exonerated the rest of the team and coaches in the report. You can't suspend Brady for not cooperating but ignore Gostkowski, who also refused to hand over his cell and emails. What's worse is the way the media twisted this story. They only stopped attacking Brady because Goodell instructed them to. It's clear Kraft has agreed to lose the SB this year, the same way he did in 2007.

How does Gronk go from writhing in pain and possibly missing the season to being fine? Was it all for show or was he instructed to miss the rest of the game, in order to have Denver win.

We need to discuss this and expose the league for what it is. I think I'll write a book about it.

Just in case you're curious here is a link to the NFL penalty tracker.

NFL Penalties - 2015 League Penalty Stats - View by Total - NFL Penalty Stats Tracker - List/Statistics/Data of NFL Penalties - 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

"The fix is in"......... More commonly referred to publicly as "league parity". This league's source of POWER ($$$$$), is predicated on having untold thousands (millions actually) fans of each franchise fervently believing that their team has a chance to win it all every year. Nothing is better for the league than to have 26 mediocre teams duking it out for the "big prize" every year. It fills the seats, it fills the merchandise shopping carts. When 1-2, or even 3-4 team stands out too much, it can begin to "erode" support slowly from the rest of the fanbases, who may begin to become more passionate about supporting other local sporting franchises that are "more successful" (other sports, college, etc). Doubt this phenomenon, look at the "bandwagon effects" of recent teams like Seattle, Carolina.... Where were those fans 5-10 years ago. Watching other stuff.

The first step is creating parity is to "tilt" the scales towards teams that "suck" by penalizing better teams by making them "pick last" at the draft. Make them all only able to spend XX amount of $$ on there roster. When that is only marginally successful, you can manipulate the rules from year to year to help keep those stubborn "winning teams" in check (you never see rule changes that effect crappy teams, do you?). With this as the primary goal, it's not too far of a stretch to see the league taking drastic measures when 1 team has consistently thwarted every attempt to make them "average" like everyone else.

I've always viewed Spygate, deflategate as primarily just extensions of this "league parity" policy crap. Contrived "scandals that allows the powers to be hamstring the Patriots future (using draft picks mostly) to somehow level the playing field by hurting their ability to sustain success. It absolutely does not surprise me that the Broncos were "allowed" to win against the mighty Patriots. Look at the hype right now in Denver. The mighty Brock O era has begun , giving MILLIONS of fans hope to hang in there (keep spending $$) and that there will be "life after Peyton". Coming soon... Brock O jerseys flying out the door.

Krafty is a willing participant too, which allows him to bend over and let the team to take in the keister with the Deflate-gate fines/draft loses, yet still vigorously defend Tom and maintain his insistence that we "did nothing wrong". Everyone knows that at this point, but hey...... you are still to good, so we will take some draft picks away in order make it harder for you to stay good in the future. It's all s f@@king sham.......

So yeah........ The fix is in. Until we once again "suck" don't expect anything to change for our franchise.

I think its as simple as this, there is no anti patriots bias inherent in officials.

what exists are a bunch of rules meant to legislate inherently natural acts in football that are left up to the discretion of officials. I think thats as far as it goes. The officials have room to call what they want when they want and it's horrible for football. You can't tell me there isn't contact past 5 yards on almost every single passing play. Holding goes on during every play and to less of an extent, hands to the face and pass interference. Officials generally let them play but they can extend or end a drive whenever they chose.

TriplecHamp said:

I think its as simple as this, there is no anti patriots bias inherent in officials.

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I think there's no conscious anti-NE bias inherent in the officials. And I don't think officials in a vacuum give a rat's kiester who wins and who doesn't. However, I think the League Office is putting a thumb on the scales and is intentionally promoting subconscious anti-NE bias in the officials when it can.

Angelpats said:

The simplest explanation is usually the correct one and nothing is simpler than the league or that referee (who was never a ref) boss telling the refs to, "call it a little tighter for the patriots."

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"Call it a little tighter for the Patriots" would get leaked and the whole thing would blow up. People overstate bias in this sort of stuff, a big news story is a big news story and the biggest league in the US conspiring against one of its teams would be Black Sox levels of news.

"We've seen a lot of OPI by New England tight ends so make that a point of emphasis" isn't the sort of thing that your average ref would view as a conspiracy and that's what I think has happened.

Again - it comes down to the league's intentions being questionable given the baldfaced hatchet job of the Wells report. But refs? Refs are just gonna do what they're told and they'll make some mistakes here and there which I think is what happened Sunday. A combination of ref mistakes and league directives specifically being quick to flag Gronk.

Tony2046 said:

Just in case you're curious here is a link to the NFL penalty tracker.

NFL Penalties - 2015 League Penalty Stats - View by Total - NFL Penalty Stats Tracker - List/Statistics/Data of NFL Penalties - 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

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Appreciate the info. But although the Pats are in the middle of the pack it doesn't stack up the situational penalties that were assessed during that Denver game. It really bothers me that someone from the league office could go to that chart and say "we don't know what they are talking about. Look there are 12 other teams that have more than them. It's just sour grapes." Not saying that you are in any way implying that tony. Thanks for the info though.

Patriot Missile said:

Appreciate the info. But although the Pats are in the middle of the pack it doesn't stack up the situational penalties that were assessed during that Denver game. It really bothers me that someone from the league office could go to that chart and say "we don't know what they are talking about. Look there are 12 other teams that have more than them. It's just sour grapes." Not saying that you are in any way implying that tony. Thanks for the info though.

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That site actually breaks the game down play by play including the penalties highlighted in red. Obviously it does not show the no calls.

Here is a link to the Pat/Den game page. Scroll down to see the play by play by Qtr/down/time etc...

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos - 11/29/2015 - NFL Penalty Stats Tracker - List/Statistics/Data of NFL Penalties - 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

Tony2046 said:

That site actually breaks the game down play by play including the penalties highlighted in red. Obviously it does not show the no calls.

Here is a link to the Pat/Den game page. Scroll down to see the play by play by Qtr/down/time etc...

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos - 11/29/2015 - NFL Penalty Stats Tracker - List/Statistics/Data of NFL Penalties - 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015

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When I have more time, I will do a statistical analysis to look for bias. That data is super helpful. Thanks!

fnordcircle said:

"We've seen a lot of OPI by New England tight ends so make that a point of emphasis" isn't the sort of thing that your average ref would view as a conspiracy and that's what I think has happened.

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Not a conspiracy, for sure. I think other teams complained about it and now refs are on the look out for it. NE went to the NFL to find out why OPI is being called so much against 87 and did their best to avoid it and it still gets called in a huge spot in the game. So, another team, or teams, go to the NFL and get their way, while NE twists in the wind. Just like with NE wanting the NFL to sweep the visiting locker room at Gillette before another team gets in there to verify it's "clean" and they won't. A visiting team, NYJ, wants it swept and the NFL practically trips over themselves getting in to do it. I really don't care about this crap. I'm just enjoying the tail end of Brady's career. I hope the NFL goes bottoms up after he's done.

NE-VT said:

When I have more time, I will do a statistical analysis to look for bias. That data is super helpful. Thanks!

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That would be interesting to see.

Not sure how yet but I am going to dig in a bit as well.

fnordcircle said:

"We've seen a lot of OPI by New England tight ends so make that a point of emphasis" isn't the sort of thing that your average ref would view as a conspiracy and that's what I think has happened.

.

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"Call it a little tighter" and "make a point of emphasis" is basically the same thing. The league has already stated that opi will be a point of emphasis (called tighter) this year but we are the only ones being hit with it continually. The thing is they took out,"for the patriots", with your quote, but it's definitely "for the patriots" during the game. I not a conspiracy theorists, I just see what my eyes tell me.

Angelpats said:

"Call it a little tighter" and "make a point of emphasis" is basically the same thing. The league has already stated that opi will be a point of emphasis (called tighter) this year but we are the only ones being hit with it continually. The thing is they took out,"for the patriots", with your quote, but it's definitely "for the patriots" during the game. I not a conspiracy theorists, I just see what my eyes tell me.

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I'm really not trying to be pedantic here but I think there is a big difference as to how 'call it tighter for the Patriots' would be received by your average ref vs. 'we've seen player X from team Y doing this so make sure to make it a point of emphasis.'

One implies a different set of standards for a team the other implies that a player is getting away with breaking the rules and needs to be brought inline.

If I'm a ref I'm ok with being told someone is breaking the rules so keep an eye on them but not being given a blanket order to call everything tighter for one team.

I also think that a lot of the outrage is being shaded by our experience at the hands of a corrupt league office. Bad calls have been a thing for decades, I don't think it's truly any worse than it was when Ben Dreith called blow to the head against us. There's just a lot more scrutiny and discussion about it.

I look forward to the inevitable use of replay for penalties.

bobbutts said:

I feel like we're getting too much credit here. Yes, it's been an amazing run, but note that there were 10 years between the Superbowl win in '04 and 14'. I'm not complaining, I'm just saying "broke football" is taking it too far when describing the Patriots' success.

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But consider how we fare against the average (the NFL Parity Goal).

In the last 16 years (1999-2014) we are:

4 time Superbowl Champions. The average is 0.5 (Eight times as good).
6 time AFC Champions. The average is 1.0 (Six times as good).
12 time Winner of Division. The average is 4.0 (Three times as good).
12 time Playoff Team. The average is 6.0 (Twice as good).
21-8 Playoff record ~ 72.4% . Average is 50%. (Amazing!).
183-73 Regular season record ~71.5%. Average is %50. (Incredible!).

For my money, I really think that it can be said that the the Patriots "Broke Football".

Tony2046 said:

If the NFL can create a **** storm from 0.2 psi (their number not mine) then I would not doubt that they would manipulate the schedule, officiating or whatever to achieve results they wish to see.

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The thing is, though, the piss-poor execution of the AFCCG sting operation showed their utter incompetence. They didn't write down numbers, didn't make sure that a specific gauge was used, and so on. They were, however, VERY motivated to after-the-fact ramrod through their ridiculous interpretations & conclusions, so while they are powerful and devious, they are not particularly thoughtful or well-organized.

I think that actually FIXING NFL games, while minimizing the risk of a fix be exposed to near-zero, would be well beyond their level of competence.

But somewhat more subtle nudging of the outcomes of games in their desired direction is very likely to be going on, by, as examples,

-choosing ref crews that have certain tendencies that go against us
-asking the refs to "emphasize" offensive pass interference when large men go out for a pass (especially when they are wearing uniform #87)
-asking the refs to "emphasize" tight calling of so-called pick plays when teams that are not wearing orange uniforms use them

That type of stuff is not beyond them, can achieve their desired results, and is unlikely to throw up enough bright red flags for their shenanigans to be exposed to everyone

I don't think it is anything conscious, but when everybody on TV and in the league office - including your own bosses - are telling you "the Patriots are cheaters, the Patriots are cheaters, the Patriots are cheaters" then it sort of seeps through into your subconscious.

Add in a dash of opponent coach whining about Gronkowski, and you have another situation which is completely unfair to New England.