Gostkowski? Re-sign? Franchise? Let-go?

Ross12 said:

Would anyone be surprised if the team drafted a kicker this year and let Gost walk?

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You mean like we did to the greatest kicker in NFL history?

Worth every penny. I think it will all depend on how the DMC/ revis situations pan out. Hope there's room for him and connolly

patsfaninpa said:

You mean like we did to the greatest kicker in NFL history?

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The Patriots have consistently shown that they value kickers highly. They certainly didn't "let Vinatieri walk" -- they franchised him TWICE and wanted to retain him, but he was determined to play in a dome.

I'd be surprised if they didn't work out a deal with Gostkowski.

patsfaninpa said:

You mean like we did to the greatest kicker in NFL history?

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Good point, but I would be surprised. In my defense, I'll say I don't know the "going rate" of kickers and what Ghost is due, and how BB timed the Vinatieri deal in relation to the money-ask. ... Ghost's value is not On-The-Wane at all, which puts him in good position for BB's standard script of Moving On before everyone realizes the player is a has-been. But, again, Ghost's ability should be stable for quite a few years, yeah? Why pass up that stability too early?

patchick said:

The Patriots have consistently shown that they value kickers highly. They certainly didn't "let Vinatieri walk" -- they franchised him TWICE and wanted to retain him, but he was determined to play in a dome.

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@patchick: do you have a source for that? I'm not saying you're wrong, merely that I don't remember hearing that.

OTOH, I know that the Patriots were reluctant to give him what he wanted because while his FGs were obviously awesome, his KOs were . . . well, not awesome. Compare that to Gostkowski, who put a KO in the stands earlier this year.

Franchise mccourty?

ctpatsfan77 said:

@patchick: do you have a source for that? I'm not saying you're wrong, merely that I don't remember hearing that.

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Vinatieri shunned Patriots (Boston Globe, 2006)
Some excerpts:

``When the Colts called, I told my agent, `Let's not screw around,' " said Vinatieri, in his first extensive comments regarding his departure from New England. ``I told him, `If Indy is interested, let's get this done.' "....Vinatieri confirmed he did not give the Patriots the chance to match Indianapolis's offer...Vinatieri had grown increasingly excited about the possibility of playing for a contender like the Colts, particularly because he'd be kicking inside the RCA Dome, which Polian estimates will add ``three years to his career -- at least."

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Part of the issue was that he was pissed off about being franchised, but that's a far cry from "letting him walk."

Yeah, to reiterate, AV left. Pats made every effort to retain (for reasonable $). Ghost has been better % wise I believe than AV was here. They chose wisely with Steve.

As someone asked, can you see them letting Ghost walk? Tough to see but there are many tough decisions this year. I think that Ghost, Vareern and Wilfork are the toughest.

As one of the most vocal posters against letting #4 go, I would argue just as strongly that they really have to pay Gostkowski and keep him. Unless, of course, BB has an alternative in mind who has his confidence. Otherwise, I don't see how we let him go.

Gostkowski needs to be resigned, he's not just a great FG kicker he's an important part of their field position game. There's a big difference between teams starting on the 20 or the 30 plus....no way they don't get this done.

Prediction:

Gost will be re-signed.

patchick said:

Vinatieri shunned Patriots (Boston Globe, 2006)
Some excerpts:


Part of the issue was that he was pissed off about being franchised, but that's a far cry from "letting him walk."

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Hard to tell with everything that was flying around at the time, but, without taking anything away from the other perspectives that have been offered (money, franchise tag, etc), I think that #4 wanted to go to a team where he was guaranteed to play at least nine games every season (Home plus HOU) in a dome vs. the Pats, where he'd play at least 11 games (and almost certainly more) outdoors every year (Home plus BUF, NYJ, MIA).

I think he knew that the only thing that could keep him out of Canton, after the kicks to win the snow bowl and two SB's at the end of the game, would be a drop off in his stats, which he has padded these last several years and which he will continue to build.

ctpatsfan77 said:

You'd be trading cap space for confidence.

.

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They did it when they let Adam V. walk rather than overpay after they franchised him twice. The team puts value on a position and doesn't overpay. If this were a non salary cap era,I say pay the man. I don't think they can give him $5 million per year---, $4 million yes. If they can get a deal similar to his present one or even a little above, great. (5 yr $15.7 mill or $3.2 /yr current) If not, they have to look for the next Robbie Gould. They had Gould in TC as pseudo-competiton for AV in 1006 and he was cut and went on to a great career in Chicago...

If Aguayo declared for the draft, it would be such a BB move to let Gost walk and use a 3rd-4th rounder on the best kicking prospect in awhile.

That said, I can't see Gost leaving because any rookie would be a sizeable downgrade.

Ross12 said:

Would anyone be surprised if the team drafted a kicker this year and let Gost walk?

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Not I, although if I had to make an even money bet I'd think they keep him.

Gost had a stratospherically good season for FG%. Putting that aside, looking at career stats, and WITHOUT allowing for weather, I'd guess a JAG kicker might have a 10% lower completion rate than Gost. With weather -- 15%, maybe? Call it 5 extra misses or so per season. Besides missing 15 points or whatever, that's also a bit of field position relinquished.

Does anybody have an idea of what 1 point per game better than one would get with a JAG is worth as a salary differential? That would be a great way to view roster decisions. I'm guess that value is on the side of keeping him -- unless the Pats are confident they can replace him with an above-average cheaper player.

ctpatsfan77 said:

You'd be trading cap space for confidence.

Think about this: since Gostkowski won the job as a rookie, he has had no meaningful competition for his roster spot. Even keeping Shayne Graham in 2011 was merely insurance in case Gostkowski's injury had affected him (it didn't).

Letting Gostkowski walk would be at least as bad a mistake, and I would argue a worse mistake, than letting Welker go last year.

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You had me with the whole post until that last few words.

Letting Welker go wasn't a mistake at all. Edelman is cheaper AND better. That was a good move by BB.

Fencer said:

Not I, although if I had to make an even money bet I'd think they keep him.

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I think that's more likely too, just throwing it out there. Could happen.

patsfan06 said:

You had me with the whole post until that last few words.

Letting Welker go wasn't a mistake at all. Edelman is cheaper AND better. That was a good move by BB.

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Given that Amendola, not Edelman was the Welker replacement, your post qualifies as an epic fail.

Deus Irae said:

Given that Amendola, not Edelman was the Welker replacement, your post qualifies as an epic fail.

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Except he wasn't.

Welker was our #1 WR. Edelman was absolutely slotted into that role when he left.

Amedola was signed to give us more depth at that position because we lost one of our top WRs.

So your response was an epic fail.