Non-homer analysis
1. Brady = Poised, but can be pressured and is immobile except within the pocket. Not prone to poor decisions or responding poorly to game pressure. Led his team to 12-4 with a good O-line but with a cast of nobodies as weapons (Julian Edelman a 100 catch, 1000 yard #1 receiver?). He had a remarkable turnaround in productivity from the first half of the season to the 2nd as he adjusted to a new corp of receivers and tight ends. Seems to be weatherproof in his passing performances, at least moreso than most. The burden of carrying the team may wear on him if facing a stellar defense, particular one with an interior pass rush. Can lead any comeback.
2. Manning = He has so many more weapons than Brady, and the ability to pass it to them provided that gametime conditions are not too adverse. Cold and (especially) wind are a problem because he does not throw a tight spiral. Can lead any comeback and create a shootout vs. even good defenses. Tends to force passes much more often than Brady and his defense seems prone to collapse, making him carry the weight to win shootout games played in the 40s. Would be further down with a lesser arsenal of receivers.
3. Luck = Scary talented, with mobility well ahead of both 1A and 1B, and also better arm strength (albeit with lesser accuracy). Seems unflappable so far. Largely untested in playoff settings, though (not his fault). Can be erratic and even error-prone at times, mostly due to a subpar O-line that forces him to make decisions much more quickly than is desirable, without the time to wait on receivers to find soft spots or make a second move. The O-line play makes him more prone to sacks and blitzes than most other playoff QBs, even though he moves amazingly well.
4. Brees = On his home field he would clearly be 1C or at worst 3, rather than 4. He can put up good stats on the road but the W/L column does not follow and the turnovers can also mount. Surrounded by capable weapons, a good line, and has an amazing coach and smart play-calling. Can get incredibly hot and pick apart a defense with amazing accuracy, but can also get flustered into making errors and throwing it up for grabs when he should instead take a sack. When hot, he can throw virtually in-defensible passes into the tightest of tight spots better than anyone. Small and can get passes knocked down more than most.
5A. Rivers = He’s as talented as any QB but is more erratic, more Favre-like than Brady-like. Takes more chances than most and seems to want to be “the guy” and carry the team even if he doesn’t have to, because he has a good running game and solid D. Can be lethal if he gets up on you in a game because as a frontrunner his rah-rah personality is an asset. When things are going bad, though, that same personality shows itself as pouty and immature. He is much less likely to lead a significant late comeback than are QBs 1-4.
5B. Wilson = A younger Brees plus athleticism, though not as accurate and even smaller in stature, probably 5’10”. He can have on and off days, maybe due to an inconsistent release point. He has the luxury to play conservatively because he rarely has to carry a team. His defense does that regularly, and so does his beastly running back. Good scrambler and improviser. Too young to know how playoff pressure will affect him, but his personality type suggests poise under pressure.
(I would put the biggest gap here)
7. Newton = He can throw like Brady on some days and throw like Jamarcus Russell on other days (though not as often). On the Brady-like days he can seem unbeatable because he runs well too and is about as hard to sack as Big Ben (very strong). He can be error-prone, indecisive, and get flustered, though. He's very unlikely to be poised enough to overcome any large deficit. He is supported by a very good defense and O-line that theoretically can allow him to not take many risks, but he seems to not understand that just yet.
8. Kaepernick = He’s the hardest to get a good read on. Sometimes he looks like a superb pocket QB and would be at worst #5C on this list if he learned to do that even most of the time. He has the arm strength but can misread defenses. Sometimes he seems lost in the pocket despite having arguably the best offensive line there is in the game today in front of him. He too often depends on making spectacular runs on his own, though it can be a great bailout because he can rip off even a 50 yard run. He’s also too young to know exactly how playoff pressure will affect him, but last year and last week he seemed mostly undaunted. Like Wilson, he has the luxury of not having to really carry the load. He has clearly done less with more this year, with the team earning a 5th seed despite having an amazing O-line, a stifling defense, an above average array of offensive weapons that includes a punishing running game, and very good coaching. They did win 12 games, but the team is even more talented than that and his inconsistency showed in the 4 losses. Brady or Manning would have made a run at 16-0 with talent like that.
