Mystery Solved........Pats get Seattle's 4th round pick in 2017 plus pick 225
Seattle got 147 plus Pats pick 243 in 7th.........Pats have no 7th rounder ......whew
That is a solid deal. In essence, the Patriots traded:
2016: 196, 204, 243, and 250
Patriots receive:
2016: 225
2017: 4th round pick (valued at 130 for now, see note below)
We don't know what exact pick that will be in 2017, but even if we counted it as the last pick in the 4th round this year, that would be 130 let's say.
Using Chase Stuart's draft chart which uses average AV per draft pick, we traded 1.9 in value for at least 3.7.
The Jimmy Johnson old-school book still has it as around 22.8 plus whatever you value those late 7ths vs. 42 for pick 130 plus whatever you value that late 7th. Either way, it was almost doubling the value of those picks.
The caveat is that you have to wait a year. I don't know why teams discount for a year in the future. Or rather, I don't know why they so heavily discount. For example, if we exclude comp picks for now, let's say somebody trades a top of 5th pick for a top of 4th pick next year.
That's 160 this year for 128 next. There's a difference from 2.3 to 3.7 in AV, about 60% more. BB was able to extract 95% value jump, so even beyond normal means, this is a big increase. That value difference is the equivalent of a free 5th round pick.
I know some people are just shrugging or shaking their heads over this. But BB consistently finds a way to make these types of deals, and over the long haul, that puts the franchise in a much better position.
