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My Occam’s razor explanation for deflategate.
The Occam’s razor principle is used to identify a likely explanation for an otherwise mysterious outcome that has many other possible explanations. It largely relies upon the idea that a series of events fitting with common sense and consistent with human nature, but also fitting with all of the known facts, is more likely to be true than are significantly more complicated explanations. This is especially true when alternative explanations require highly improbable events to occur, or when they rely upon behavior that is far out of character for the people who are involved in the mystery.
I have applied this sort of logic to the “deflategate” controversy and the following is what I think happened (and yes, this is speculation on my part).
We begin with the playoff game between the Patriots and the Ravens. It is a cold weather game, in fact it is about 20 degrees at kickoff. Shortly before halftime the Ravens defense intercepts a Tom Brady pass. John Harbaugh, or another Ravens coach, asks that the football be kept and “looked at”. Why? We don’t exactly know. Paranoia, perhaps? At an opportune moment, likely at halftime, the Ravens' equipment guy, after being asked to do so, measures the air pressure in the football (even though this act is illegal). The reading is 10 psi. The Ravens are puzzled, not understanding that a football that had been pumped to 12.5 psi at 72 degrees will, BY THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS, drop in pressure about 2.5 psi due to a temperature drop of over 50 degrees on this very cold day. Such a pressure drop happens without any human involvement.
The Ravens equipment guy exclaims “This football is at 10 psi, coach Harbaugh! Wow! It’s supposed to be at 12.5 psi! The Patriots must be cheating!” Harbaugh also doesn’t understand the relevant science, but he has the pressing need to focus on making adjustments for the second half.
So coach Harbaugh says “Well, that’s nice, but we’re in a dogfight here, up 21-14. There’s a lot more football to be played, so let’s control what we can control.” Thus Harbaugh does not act on the low football pressure news.
The second half is marked by two Patriot comebacks and a 35-31 victory. Harbaugh is angered by one particular tactic of the Patriots, the use of offensive formations that employ eligible/ineligible receivers, players adopting field positions that are inconsistent with their jersey numbers, unless they first report to the refs (which they had done). Harbaugh voices his displeasure over the tactic in his pointed postgame remarks. Tom Brady then replies “Well, maybe he should read the rule book!”
Harbaugh is FURIOUS at Brady’s flippant remark.
Now move forward a few days. The Colts are preparing for the Patriots. Their GM Ryan Grigson, their coach Chuck Pagano, and the Ravens coach Joan Harbaugh are friends and former co-workers. Grigson (or Pagano) calls up Harbaugh for any and all helpful advice. Harbaugh goes over game strategy and the Patriots weaknesses, making many helpful game plan suggestions. Then at some point, recalling Brady’s rule book zinger, he says almost as an afterthought “Hey, there’s one other thing, guys. We think that the Patriots do something funny with the footballs, deflating them a little. We picked off a football and checked it out. It was below the pressure specs, by a lot!”
Grigson and Pagano also don’t understand the relevant science. Their hatred for the Patriots even exceeds that of Harbaugh’s, though. Grigson was a Ram in 2001 (they lost in the Super Bowl to the Patriots), an Eagle in 2004 (they lost in the Super Bowl to the Patriots), and a Raven after that, through many fierce playoff and regular season battles with New England. Pagano was on the Ravens staff too. Grigson and Pagano decide that Harbaugh’s claims demand action. They know just what to do: they will contact a high-ranking NFL executive named Matt Kensil. Why Kensil? He is the son of a previous New York Jets president who was jilted by Bill Belichick when the coach resigned after being named the Jets head coach in 2000. Kensil was a Jets employee through much of the 2000s. His dislike for the Patriots was no secret. Better yet, as an NFL game day operations official, he was in a position to not only listen to grigson and Pagano, he might even be able to do something about it!
Kensil assures Grigson and/or Pagano that “I will be ready, if the Patriots try to pull that kind of stunt this week”. He instructs Pagano to hold onto any Patriots footballs whenever possible, and “then we’ll see what they are up to”. This overall plan to catch the Patriots red-handed is Kensil’s. He does not involve the on-field game officials in this plan. This detail explains why the on-field game officials are not meticulous in, for example, logging pregame football pressure measurements. They don’t normally do that, so they also don’t do it for the AFC championship game.
The grand opportunity for Kensil, Grigson, and/or Pagano arises with a Colts interception late in the first half. The Colts player collects the souvenir and gives it to their equipment guy for safe keeping. Grigson or Pagano sends word to the equipment guy: “Hey, you need to check the pressure in that football, because the Patriots may be up to something!”
The Colts equipment guy pulls out a needle and pressure gauge. He measures the pressure as 11.4 psi! He thinks “Yes, we are onto something! It should be 12.5-13.5, right?” He runs to Grigson and says “this ball is deflated!”
Grigson wants to see it for himself. The Colts equipment guy measures the pressure as 11.3 psi. Note: every time that you test the pressure, some air escapes the football to pressurize the gauge itself, so the drop from 11.4 to 11.3 is normal. However, the drop from 12.5 psi to 11.4 psi is also normal, given the temperature of 48 degrees at halftime, 20-25 degrees warmer than the temperature at which the footballs were inflated indoors. But again, Grigson slept through the “PV=nRT” lecture in high school and is oblivious to that. He thinks “if the pressure dropped, any, then somebody—THE PATRIOTS! — must have let air out of this football!
Grigson finds Matt Kensil and passes on the word “WE’VE GOT THEM!” Kensil also wants to see it for himself. He measures the pressure as 11.2 psi! “Yes, we have them dead to rights! The footballs are supposed to be 13 psi, plus/minus 0.5. This one is almost 2 psi lower than 13!”
Kensil takes the news to the head on-field game official at halftime, who is very upset that Kensil has measured the pressure of a football, which is something that is simply not allowed. He snaps “We are the only ones who are supposed to do that!”
Still, Kensil presses the main point, that in his opinion a partially deflated football was used in the game. He insists “We need to check the pressure of all of the game footballs!”
Kensil (or more probably the official) checks the other Patriots footballs. They are all in the range of 11.3-11.5 psi, except one that is at about 12 psi. Kensil (or the official) exclaims “Wow… we do have them! All of these footballs are supposed to be 13 psi, plus/minus 0.5. They are all low, and all but one is at least 1 psi lower than the minimum!”
Kensil and/or the official do not realize that BY THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS the footballs will have dropped in pressure over 1 psi by the 20-25 degree temperature drop, without any human involvement. 12.5 psi becomes 11.4 psi, without a single molecule of gas taken out!
Kensil (or the official) then inflates the Patriots footballs up to 13 psi, thinking that he is doing the right thing. “After all, we can’t let them cheat in the second half!”
Kensil (or the official) then checks the Colts footballs. They are all 12.4-12.5 psi, right at the minimum specs. “Aha, LEGAL! Wow… the Colts are clean!” Kensil (or the official) does not know that these footballs had originally been inflated to 13.5 psi by another game day official, per the Colts' instructions. They just knew that they had been approved to start with. BY THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS all of the footballs would have dropped in pressure by over 1 psi due to the 20-25 degree temperature drop, without any human involvement. Over the first half, in other words, for the Colts footballs 13.5 psi becomes 12.4 psi, without a single molecule taken out! Yes, Mother Nature treated all of the footballs, on both sidelines, exactly the same way. They did not start out at the same pressure, however. The Colts footballs began at 13.5 psi, the Patriots footballs began at 12.5 psi (except for one outlier, one that was at 13 psi or so, the one that was still close to specs at halftime). Both sets of footballs had been legal, but they began at opposite ends of the legal pressure range.
All of the footballs are now 100% legal for play, to everyone's satisfaction. The head referee reminds Kensil that measuring football pressure is to be left to the on-field game officials. Still, it was time for the second half kickoff, with no time for an argument. Having in-spec footballs, the head ref decides “Let’s go!”
The Patriots run roughshod over the Colts and the game becomes a blowout. Kensil, Grigson, and owner Jim Irsay (whom Grigson had informed about the news, after halftime) are dejected. But… they are NOT going to let the Patriots “get away with it” even in a blowout win. They were still not aware that Mother Nature was the only football depressurizer that day, other than the people who illegally checked the pressure in the footballs, especially the intercepted ball, and multiple times.
(edit: I cleaned up a few things)
My Occam’s razor explanation for deflategate.
The Occam’s razor principle is used to identify a likely explanation for an otherwise mysterious outcome that has many other possible explanations. It largely relies upon the idea that a series of events fitting with common sense and consistent with human nature, but also fitting with all of the known facts, is more likely to be true than are significantly more complicated explanations. This is especially true when alternative explanations require highly improbable events to occur, or when they rely upon behavior that is far out of character for the people who are involved in the mystery.
I have applied this sort of logic to the “deflategate” controversy and the following is what I think happened (and yes, this is speculation on my part).
We begin with the playoff game between the Patriots and the Ravens. It is a cold weather game, in fact it is about 20 degrees at kickoff. Shortly before halftime the Ravens defense intercepts a Tom Brady pass. John Harbaugh, or another Ravens coach, asks that the football be kept and “looked at”. Why? We don’t exactly know. Paranoia, perhaps? At an opportune moment, likely at halftime, the Ravens' equipment guy, after being asked to do so, measures the air pressure in the football (even though this act is illegal). The reading is 10 psi. The Ravens are puzzled, not understanding that a football that had been pumped to 12.5 psi at 72 degrees will, BY THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS, drop in pressure about 2.5 psi due to a temperature drop of over 50 degrees on this very cold day. Such a pressure drop happens without any human involvement.
The Ravens equipment guy exclaims “This football is at 10 psi, coach Harbaugh! Wow! It’s supposed to be at 12.5 psi! The Patriots must be cheating!” Harbaugh also doesn’t understand the relevant science, but he has the pressing need to focus on making adjustments for the second half.
So coach Harbaugh says “Well, that’s nice, but we’re in a dogfight here, up 21-14. There’s a lot more football to be played, so let’s control what we can control.” Thus Harbaugh does not act on the low football pressure news.
The second half is marked by two Patriot comebacks and a 35-31 victory. Harbaugh is angered by one particular tactic of the Patriots, the use of offensive formations that employ eligible/ineligible receivers, players adopting field positions that are inconsistent with their jersey numbers, unless they first report to the refs (which they had done). Harbaugh voices his displeasure over the tactic in his pointed postgame remarks. Tom Brady then replies “Well, maybe he should read the rule book!”
Harbaugh is FURIOUS at Brady’s flippant remark.
Now move forward a few days. The Colts are preparing for the Patriots. Their GM Ryan Grigson, their coach Chuck Pagano, and the Ravens coach Joan Harbaugh are friends and former co-workers. Grigson (or Pagano) calls up Harbaugh for any and all helpful advice. Harbaugh goes over game strategy and the Patriots weaknesses, making many helpful game plan suggestions. Then at some point, recalling Brady’s rule book zinger, he says almost as an afterthought “Hey, there’s one other thing, guys. We think that the Patriots do something funny with the footballs, deflating them a little. We picked off a football and checked it out. It was below the pressure specs, by a lot!”
Grigson and Pagano also don’t understand the relevant science. Their hatred for the Patriots even exceeds that of Harbaugh’s, though. Grigson was a Ram in 2001 (they lost in the Super Bowl to the Patriots), an Eagle in 2004 (they lost in the Super Bowl to the Patriots), and a Raven after that, through many fierce playoff and regular season battles with New England. Pagano was on the Ravens staff too. Grigson and Pagano decide that Harbaugh’s claims demand action. They know just what to do: they will contact a high-ranking NFL executive named Matt Kensil. Why Kensil? He is the son of a previous New York Jets president who was jilted by Bill Belichick when the coach resigned after being named the Jets head coach in 2000. Kensil was a Jets employee through much of the 2000s. His dislike for the Patriots was no secret. Better yet, as an NFL game day operations official, he was in a position to not only listen to grigson and Pagano, he might even be able to do something about it!
Kensil assures Grigson and/or Pagano that “I will be ready, if the Patriots try to pull that kind of stunt this week”. He instructs Pagano to hold onto any Patriots footballs whenever possible, and “then we’ll see what they are up to”. This overall plan to catch the Patriots red-handed is Kensil’s. He does not involve the on-field game officials in this plan. This detail explains why the on-field game officials are not meticulous in, for example, logging pregame football pressure measurements. They don’t normally do that, so they also don’t do it for the AFC championship game.
The grand opportunity for Kensil, Grigson, and/or Pagano arises with a Colts interception late in the first half. The Colts player collects the souvenir and gives it to their equipment guy for safe keeping. Grigson or Pagano sends word to the equipment guy: “Hey, you need to check the pressure in that football, because the Patriots may be up to something!”
The Colts equipment guy pulls out a needle and pressure gauge. He measures the pressure as 11.4 psi! He thinks “Yes, we are onto something! It should be 12.5-13.5, right?” He runs to Grigson and says “this ball is deflated!”
Grigson wants to see it for himself. The Colts equipment guy measures the pressure as 11.3 psi. Note: every time that you test the pressure, some air escapes the football to pressurize the gauge itself, so the drop from 11.4 to 11.3 is normal. However, the drop from 12.5 psi to 11.4 psi is also normal, given the temperature of 48 degrees at halftime, 20-25 degrees warmer than the temperature at which the footballs were inflated indoors. But again, Grigson slept through the “PV=nRT” lecture in high school and is oblivious to that. He thinks “if the pressure dropped, any, then somebody—THE PATRIOTS! — must have let air out of this football!
Grigson finds Matt Kensil and passes on the word “WE’VE GOT THEM!” Kensil also wants to see it for himself. He measures the pressure as 11.2 psi! “Yes, we have them dead to rights! The footballs are supposed to be 13 psi, plus/minus 0.5. This one is almost 2 psi lower than 13!”
Kensil takes the news to the head on-field game official at halftime, who is very upset that Kensil has measured the pressure of a football, which is something that is simply not allowed. He snaps “We are the only ones who are supposed to do that!”
Still, Kensil presses the main point, that in his opinion a partially deflated football was used in the game. He insists “We need to check the pressure of all of the game footballs!”
Kensil (or more probably the official) checks the other Patriots footballs. They are all in the range of 11.3-11.5 psi, except one that is at about 12 psi. Kensil (or the official) exclaims “Wow… we do have them! All of these footballs are supposed to be 13 psi, plus/minus 0.5. They are all low, and all but one is at least 1 psi lower than the minimum!”
Kensil and/or the official do not realize that BY THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS the footballs will have dropped in pressure over 1 psi by the 20-25 degree temperature drop, without any human involvement. 12.5 psi becomes 11.4 psi, without a single molecule of gas taken out!
Kensil (or the official) then inflates the Patriots footballs up to 13 psi, thinking that he is doing the right thing. “After all, we can’t let them cheat in the second half!”
Kensil (or the official) then checks the Colts footballs. They are all 12.4-12.5 psi, right at the minimum specs. “Aha, LEGAL! Wow… the Colts are clean!” Kensil (or the official) does not know that these footballs had originally been inflated to 13.5 psi by another game day official, per the Colts' instructions. They just knew that they had been approved to start with. BY THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS all of the footballs would have dropped in pressure by over 1 psi due to the 20-25 degree temperature drop, without any human involvement. Over the first half, in other words, for the Colts footballs 13.5 psi becomes 12.4 psi, without a single molecule taken out! Yes, Mother Nature treated all of the footballs, on both sidelines, exactly the same way. They did not start out at the same pressure, however. The Colts footballs began at 13.5 psi, the Patriots footballs began at 12.5 psi (except for one outlier, one that was at 13 psi or so, the one that was still close to specs at halftime). Both sets of footballs had been legal, but they began at opposite ends of the legal pressure range.
All of the footballs are now 100% legal for play, to everyone's satisfaction. The head referee reminds Kensil that measuring football pressure is to be left to the on-field game officials. Still, it was time for the second half kickoff, with no time for an argument. Having in-spec footballs, the head ref decides “Let’s go!”
The Patriots run roughshod over the Colts and the game becomes a blowout. Kensil, Grigson, and owner Jim Irsay (whom Grigson had informed about the news, after halftime) are dejected. But… they are NOT going to let the Patriots “get away with it” even in a blowout win. They were still not aware that Mother Nature was the only football depressurizer that day, other than the people who illegally checked the pressure in the footballs, especially the intercepted ball, and multiple times.
(edit: I cleaned up a few things)
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