The simple story behind the entire "deflategate" controversy

[Gumby]

Not to nitpick, but I think you went a bit NON-Occam on a couple points.

1. Having so many air pressure checks is not a necessary explanation and adds potential issues.
A. From my tv viewing, they tend to keep reusing the same ball most of the time in games (they just toss back to ref), so maybe some of air loss was just rbs and big-ugly DL landing on top of it for 20 min of game time.
B. Using 0.1 as a pressure loss for testing is a nice round guess, but sounds like exactly that --an unscientific WAG!
C. Having to depend on a chain of three guys doing the same thing seems like an opportunity to allow them to create doubt. If the can prove one of the three had no opportunity to check air unobserved, it makes your whole argument look bad. Air comes out by testing, just leave it at that.

2. Dolts footballs:
A. Where did you come up with the dolts balls at 13.5? That is the first time I ever heard a number associated with dolts starting air pressure.
B. Assuming them that high isn't neccessary either. I prefer these paler explanation that the balls were in the team bus overnight and therefore checked/pumped up at ambient outdoor temp and not pure indoor temp like the pats .

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Patricia before Fleming. First, it's closer to being his job. Second, he has a lot more experience with cold-weather footballs than Fleming does.

But Fleming was more recently taking classes where PV=nRT was actually used.

 

[VectorPrime]

Get rid of this subforum and put this thread back in the main forum. The entire point of this subforum was so people could talk about the Super Bowl in the main forum leading up to the game without all the distractions. It's outlived its purpose.

 

[Jlaff]

It's a solid post. My only disagreement with it is the Kensil hates BB angle. While Kensil was with the NYJ in 2000, do we really think that he was scorned by BB for dissing the NYJ? Also keep in mind that Kensil was canned by Mangini in 06- not 07 as you say. I just don't see tangible proof for the vendetta angle - yet.

Maybe he thinks Mangina was just following Belichick's advice in canning him? Or just saw some Patriots guy coming in and showing the door to a true Jet like himself? Might just be Patriots hatred and not necessarily BB hatred.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Maybe he thinks Mangina was just following Belichick's advice in canning him? Or just saw some Patriots guy coming in and showing the door to a true Jet like himself? Might just be Patriots hatred and not necessarily BB hatred.

NFL team offices are just like corporate america. Power plays, politics and organizational pee-pee measuring.

I heard a rumor from 1997 to 2000 as fellow NYJ employees, Kensil and BB clashed often. When I asked why, I was educated on the organizational landscape of the NYJ at the time. Back then, BB was the #2 behind Tuna so he carried a significant amount of authority during game day. For a long time, Mike Kensil reported to his dad- Jim who was team president who died in Jan of 1997 then pinhead Steve Gutman (another useless troll) took over and reported to Hess. With Hess at the top, you had Parcells and Gutman reporting to Hess. In essence, Mike Kensil and BB were peers.

We all know BB's attitude of, "If you aren't helping us win, what exactly do you do here?" and can be pretty demanding and brusque in his approach. Do we think that BB would not have an opinion on game day operations? LOL. It would not surprise me that BB was providing Kensil with direction on how to do his job and Kensil told BB to stick it. With that said, BB made Kensil's life a living hell. Maybe BB Kensil thought BB was incompetent and wanted him marginalized as well?

It all fits and makes a nice story but its also just a theory and rumors. Vengeance and vendettas seem so petty almost 20 years later. As a vice president in the NFL office and part of a multi-billion dollar corporation, I'd like to think Kensil is above that BS.

 

[Mack Herron]

Being Commish means never having to say you're sorry.

 

[Buchanty]

...and just when I was beginning to feel comfortable that all ground must have been covered by Wells, Goodell opens his mouth and removes all such confidence.

according to the Globe

"Goodell said one of the issues Wells likely explored was whether the deflated ball issue happened only in the AFC Championship Game, or whether it occurred more often."

...which means either the Wells Report

1. does not include the effect of the THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS
2. dismisses the effect of the THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS
3. acknowledges but Goodell dismisses the effect of the THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS
4. acknowledges but Goodell doesn't understand the effect of the THE NATURAL LAWS OF PHYSICS
5. has not been read by Goodell

and if it is any of the first 4 then the Pats will never be exonerated.

Ye gods and little fishes, so much money for so little wisdom!

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Wells simply cannot ignore PV=nRT.

This isn't quantum mechanics. This is more like confirming that the Earth is not flat.

If the refs testimony has established that the footballs (Patriots & Colts) were depressurized by nearly the amount predicted by the ideal gas law (based on their memory, apparently, since nothing was recorded), then any removal of air on top of that BY ANYONE is, was, and will always be IMPOSSIBLE.

I don't see how they can ignore that. Ted Wells cannot declare the laws of the Universe to be null and void, no matter what he thinks his mandate might be.

 

[Buchanty]

Wells simply cannot ignore PV=nRT.

This isn't quantum mechanics. This is more like confirming that the Earth is not flat.

If the refs testimony has established that the footballs (Patriots & Colts) were depressurized by nearly the amount predicted by the ideal gas law (based on their memory, apparently, since nothing was recorded), then any removal of air on top of that BY ANYONE is, was, and will always be IMPOSSIBLE.

I don't see how they can ignore that. Ted Wells cannot declare the laws of the Universe to be null and void, no matter what he thinks his mandate might be.

Seems it was just the way the Globe reported the Commissioner..... CBS has a slightly different report which indicates that the question of whether ball deflation happened in more than one game was asked. There was no indication of how the report answered that question.

The Globe's spin infers that the report "likely" provides an answer which possibly ignores PV=nRT.

Maybe it's just me reading more into media output than I should.

 

[Dr Pain]

Seems it was just the way the Globe reported the Commissioner..... CBS has a slightly different report which indicates that the question of whether ball deflation happened in more than one game was asked. There was no indication of how the report answered that question.

The Globe's spin infers that the report "likely" provides an answer which possibly ignores PV=nRT.

Maybe it's just me reading more into media output than I should.

Per science it must occur. I think this may go back to the Ravens game where the ball would drop to around 9.8 PSI based on the temp at that game. If this is where this all started, it makes sense.

 

[hambone1818]

...and just when I was beginning to feel comfortable that all ground must have been covered by Wells, Goodell opens his mouth and removes all such confidence.

according to the Globe
*snip*

I really think people are misreading Goodell's quotes here, and in the main forum thread. Here's the ESPN report with direct quotes:

Rose asked Goodell when Ted Wells will be releasing his report on underinflated footballs.
"He has not been given a timeframe. I expect it will not be long," Goodell answered.

A bit more of the Q&A:
Rose: Why is this hard?
Goodell: Well, I think it's hard because you wanna make sure you have all the information. It's not just...

Rose: It's one game, one ball.
Goodell: The question is, one of the things that he would be asked to look for is, was it just one game?

Rose: Is there any suspicion that it wasn't one game?
Goodell: There's no suspicion of anything. What we're trying to do is just make sure we're thorough. The most important thing here is, was there a violation of the rules? And if so, how did that occur?

Rose: When do you expect his report?
Goodell: I don't expect it other than I do think it'll be soon. We have a responsibility to the 32 teams -- not just to one team, to 32 teams -- and our fans, and the general public here to make sure that things were done fairly.

That reads like--to me--Goodell is showing he's given Wells full control of the investigation (thus Goodell has no inside knowledge of the findings), and Goodell himself is speculating on why the investigation has taken so long, and what specific avenues Wells has likely taken to come to a conclusion. Goodell is speaking in very general, vague terms--precisely because he DOESN'T have any knowledge because Wells is independently investigating (or at least he's trying to establish it as fact, even if he's been informed throughout).

As to the OP, I agree and I think most on here have been saying the same thing (well, in a lot fewer words )...if, in fact, the Wells investigation comes to that conclusion the real question, to me, is how the league handles the considerable egg on their face. That's not something Goodell likes, certainly not after the Ray Rice fiasco. How much does the NFL try to shield the, well, the Shield and does that result in any misleading or vague wording that allows people to say the Patriots weren't fully exonerated? That'll be the big question if, in fact, the OP's timeline is what actually happened.

 

[VectorPrime]

People are reading way WAY too much into what Goodell said in that interview. He spoke in the most vague generalities possible and gave the impression that he isn't really in the loop with the investigation in the first place.

 

[tom.kordis]

PBPF,

I think you need to add one additional point of speculation that explains "Why the Colts' balls were not 'under-inflated'."

Either:

1. Their pressures were not measured at half time, because nobody had squawked the pressure in their balls, or
   
   
2. The Colts' ball boys take their job just as seriously as the Pats' ball boys do. So they keep a close watch on the balls chosen for the game. They bring the balls into their room for the night. They will do a last pressure check / set when they get to the stadium.
   
   Hotel check-out time on Sunday was 11 AM. Their equipment, including their footballs, were loaded into the bus luggage compartment at, or before, that time.
   
   The luggage compartment is un-heated. The balls sit in that compartment for around 4 hours (11 am to ~3 pm), which is long enough for the air inside to thermally equilibrate to outside air temperature (~50°F).
   
   When the Colts arrive at Gillette stadium (around 3 pm for the 6 pm kickoff), the ball boys have 45 minutes to get their pressures set & the balls delivered to the refs for inspection. No problem. In about 10 minutes, they pump them all up to Luck's preferred pressure (we'll guess 13.0 psi, but the results here will not change, no matter what his preferece might be), & deliver them to the refs.
   
   The refs check the pressure in the balls, & adjust slightly as needed, then bag them for the game.
   
   The main point is that, unlike the Pats' balls, which have been in the heated facility all night, the Colts' balls have been in an unheated luggage compartment for the 4 - 6 hours before referee inspection, and only brought into the building about an hour or so before inspection.
   
   One hour, in dry conditions, is NOT enough time for the air inside the balls to equilibrate to room temp air. During the 45 minutes the Colts balls have been in the facility (@ 75°F), the air inside them has risen from 50°F to (my best guess) around 54°F.
   
   Let's assume that the balls had been previously set to 13.0 psi at room temp. After cooling down, they'll now read low. About 1.1 to 1.3 psi lower than the 13.0 psi to which they had been set.
   
   Adding 1.3 psi to a 11.7 psi ball means that [(11.7+14.7)/(13.0+14.7) =] 95% of the air inside the ball is cold (54°F), and only 5% is room temp (75°F). This produces a mixed temperature of [(.95*54) + (.05*75)] = 55.0°F. The result is 13.0 psi @ 55°F.
   
   In contrast, since the Pats' balls have been stored in the facility, the proper setting of their pressures produces 12.5 psi @ 75°F.
   
   When both sets of balls are taken outdoors into rainy weather, they equilibrate much faster (20 - 45 minutes) due to the cold rain water than they did in dry conditions.
   
   The pressure in the Colts balls drops from 13.0 psig to P2 = (13.0 + 14.7) psia * (49 + 460)°R/(55 + 55)°R = 27.4 psig = 12.7 psig.
   Barely any pressure drop at all (∆p = 0.3 psi), and still within specs.
   
   In contrast, the pressure in the Pats' balls drops from 12.5 psig to P2 = (12.5 + 14.7) psia * (49+460)°R / (75+460)°R = 25.9 psia = 11.2 psig.
   A significant pressure drop (∆p = 1.3 psi), and clearly "out of specs".
   
   THIS is the likeliest cause of the different behavior of the balls for the two teams: the temperature environment of the balls in the 4 to 6 hours prior to their pressure setting & inspection, which result in the air inside the Colts' balls to be "near outside temp", but the air inside the Pats' ball to be room temperature, during final pressure inspection & setting.

Contrary to when I first came to this board, I believe that option 2) above is more likely than 1).

 

[tom.kordis]

"Goodell said one of the issues Wells likely explored was whether the deflated ball issue happened only in the AFC Championship Game, or whether it occurred more often."

...which means ...

I read this very positively.
It makes it clear that Wells is asking the right questions.
Asking the right questions is 90% of the way to getting the right answers.

And Wells is doing the analysis, not Goodell.

Coming from one who has spent his career in the techn0logical trenches, the fact that the right answers haven't yet percolated up to "Plush Carpet Row" (i.e., CEO, Prez & VPs) is not the slightest bit surprising.

** ETA: with one caveat:
As long as Wells (not Goodell) means:
"... occurred more often in all NFL games".
Not "... occurred more often in Patriots' games only."

The first interpretation produces the right question.
The second interpretation produces the wrong question.

 

[VectorPrime]

It also seems like he was talking in the past tense of how he felt when the investigation started. That Wells should look into if this had happened before.

 

[obgod3]

I find it entirely possible that wells ignores the science. I find even more possible the pats are not exonerated.

I dont think for one minute that Kensil or Grigson get any negative actions on them at all. They will lie and no one is going to rat them out.

I don't want all that to happen this way but it is how it will most likely happen that the science doesn't matter and the pats are fined and nothing else happens.

 

[VectorPrime]

You can't ignore the basic fundamental laws of physics after SO MUCH has been discussed about them. Don't forget Wells brought in Colombia to do tests, so that must be in the report at the very least.

Optimism isn't an awful thing people!

 

[obgod3]

You can't ignore the basic fundamental laws of physics after SO MUCH has been discussed about them. Don't forget Wells brought in Colombia to do tests, so that must be in the report at the very least.

Optimism isn't an awful thing people!

Sure they can, the NFL has proved they can ignore facts on a regular basis. I'm optimistic that I'll win the lottery but that doesn't mean it will happen.

I don't see the Pats escaping some responsibility, and no way any NFL official gets in any trouble for it.

I don't want it that way but the NFL has proved that is how they operate, ignoring history is ..well whatever.

I'll disagree here by writing my reasoning.......l

 

[VectorPrime]

I, and an increasingly high number of media member, disagree.

 

[supafly]

I, and an increasingly high number of media member, disagree.

The problem with that thinking is that an "increasingly high number of media members" thought that the Pats were definitely guilty in the beginning too.