The Official Rounds 2&3 2013 NFL Draft Thread

[Rob0729]

Absolutely, although the problem drafts were 2006-2009, IMO. Maybe the picks work out to be a pack of HOFers, but this is the worst use of picks I can remember this team doing in the Belichick era. Outside of the WR pick, it's as if they are trying to blow the draft.*



* Disclaimer: This is the poster's opinion of the points being raised specifically in the quoted post, about the general discussion at hand, and he realizes that others may agree or disagree. He considers that understood on a message board.

The problem with the 2006-2009 drafts had little to do with them trading down for value. In fact, the Pats traded up for Chad Jackson in 2006. And the Pats were right to trade down for Mayo in 2008 (the only knock there is that they should have tried to see if they could have traded down a little more).

The problem with the 2006-2009 drafts was that they draft bad picks. Merriweather and Maroney were bad picks in the first where the Pats didn't trade down (don't think they were busts as some say, but definitely not of value). As I stated, the Pats didn't trade down, but traded up in 2006 and it didn't help.

The problem with the 2006-2009 drafts were scouting or, in some cases, Belichick not listening to the scouts and listening to outside people with vested interest in the players over his scouts (Urban Meyer with Jackson and McDaniels' brother with Maroney). It had little to do with trading down.

Caserio and his staff have scouted three solid drafts in a row. I give them the benefit of the doubt that they scouted a fourth one. I think the first three picks are good, but none of know until these players hit the field.

To say the Pats blew the draft is way premature and reactionary.

 

[Blackluck]

Suck at what, exactly? Building a football team? You mean the one that has won the most Super Bowls and has the best regular season record in the entire league since 2001?

Or do you mean drafting? In which case, let me refer you to this article (linked below) which shows that you are utterly and embarrassingly wrong about that. In fact, the Patriots are one of the very best drafting teams in the NFL, and have been during the entire BB era.

2000-2012 Patriots Draft Analysis atriots Coverage With John Vampatella

We got extraordinarily lucky getting Brady. That's not due to any draft acumen on BB's part. Drafting players is an imperfect exercise, as the NFL draft over time proves. On NFLN today, Billich said the reason Aaron Rodgers dropped to 24 was because scouts believed Rodgers couldn't throw accurate passes outside the pocket. Scouts and teams get it wrong. All the time. But our draft history is not about missing talent. It's way more egregious than that.

This is specifically talking about drafting defensive backs. I think we're up to 21 at this point. Any other team that has drafted 21 defensive backs yet STILL need to trade for an oft injured CB from another team has serious issues in evaluating talent. You cannot point to Vollmer or Ahern or Ridley or ANY OTHER POSITION because that's not the question.

You do not get a steal by drafting a player at 48 when every other scouting report has him ranked against his peers as a late round/UFDA (aka Wilson.) If BB has some super secret formula for evaluating DBs - which clearly, he does NOT, else we would not keep drafting them every god damn year - but even if he did, it still makes exactly zero sense taking these DBs when we have.

The problem with these picks is the opportunity costs. Given the excessive amount of draft capital we've expanded for one position, and given what we COULD have had otherwise, it's not a leap to say had we drafted better we would have had at least one more SB ring.

So yes, we SUCK at this.

We won our Super Bowls on the back of a gritty defense. Clutch players making clutch plays. Those guys are gone, the NFL has changed.

All that remains is Brady. And despite the chest beating from the kool-aid crowd, we have clearly been eclipsed. We lost three games to the NFC West last year. If this team played in that conference, are we a SB contender?

Maybe so, but only because of Brady.

 

[RobAllan]

You are assuming to know what each of the 31 teams are going to do. The problem is that you don't. If the Patriots are high on a guy, in all likelihood, there is somebody else who also has the guy on their radar.....Even if the media pundits do not.

I think I can safely assume on a pick like this that another team won't take the player remotely that early even if they are high oh him. Why? Because it does, at least to me, appear that other teams make a reasonable assumption on where a player will be drafted. (We know they do- this is why people move up and down in the draft.) When a player has no draft rating, or is projected to go in the 7th round, there should be no reason to take them in the 3rd unless you're out of picks. Except BB apparently exists outside of this continuum of thinking.

Look if other teams were doing this and creating risk, I wouldn't have a problem. But other teams aren't doing this to the degree we are. Even the Bills taking Manuel where they did- that's not a discrepancy of 4 rounds. And people thinking Smith was the first QB out was probably more mediot than scout opinion.

The BB "reaches" are all like 3, 4 round reaches. That's more than necessary even for someone trying to mitigate risk of a pick being taken. And the worst of it is, we're mitigating risk of players being taken who are statistically less likely to succeed than some of the players we pass on. (That's why they're rated to go so low.)

 

[Brady2Moss]

I told you guys last night they would trade back and fill out the back up roles on this team and draft players with minimal impact. I like Dobson and maybe the linebacker does something, but damn the team isn't better than last year. It is worse.

 

[Deus Irae]

The problem with the 2006-2009 drafts had little to do with them trading down for value. In fact, the Pats traded up for Chad Jackson in 2006. And the Pats were right to trade down for Mayo in 2008 (the only knock there is that they should have tried to see if they could have traded down a little more).

The problems with the 2006-2009 drafts were varied, and including screwing up by trading down.

The problem with the 2006-2009 drafts was that they draft bad picks. Merriweather and Maroney were bad picks in the first where the Pats didn't trade down (don't think they were busts as some say, but definitely not of value). As I stated, the Pats didn't trade down, but traded up in 2006 and it didn't help.

The problem with the 2006-2009 drafts were scouting or, in some cases, Belichick not listening to the scouts and listening to outside people with vested interest in the players over his scouts (Urban Meyer with Jackson and McDaniels' brother with Maroney). It had little to do with trading down.

Caserio and his staff have scouted three solid drafts in a row. I give them the benefit of the doubt that they scouted a fourth one. I think the first three picks are good, but none of know until these players hit the field.

To say the Pats blew the draft is way premature and reactionary.

See above, and the Pats blew the draft in the sense that you know I'm talking about. There's no need to wait. If the Jets had pulled this crap, you'd have wet your pants from laughter.*



* Disclaimer: This is the poster's opinion of the points being raised specifically in the quoted post, about the general discussion at hand, and he realizes that others may agree or disagree. He considers that understood on a message board.

 

[RobAllan]

Well in the case of Meriweather he went to the probowl and then regressed, that doesn't indict the draft/scouting process at all.

That statement would imply that player longevity isn't a scouting consideration. Were that true, we probably wouldn't even have Gronk on our team because he'd have been drafted higher. We always talk about drafting "intangibles." A guy prone to that kind of regression, of fulfilling a need to freelance on the field the better he gets, etc. would be something teams would try to isolate when they assess player personality.

So yes it does indict the draft/scouting process. It would be wildly inconsistent to say it doesn't.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Vollmer and Ridley are good examples. What people don't seem to get is that BB isn't trying to be 'cute' or 'outsmart' people. This is where the Pats scouts have these players on the big 'draft board' or they wouldn't pick them where they did. Apparently they felt that both Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon were 3rd round talents.

Do you honestly believe the Patriots scouts are behind this pick? I think this is purely BB getting his guy against the advice of scouts. I don't think there is any way he was at the top of their board.

Edit: I mean the Harmon pick not the Ryan pick, I think that was solid

 

[DaBruinz]

Mayock was saying he's got him rated as a 4th round selection.

NFLDraftscout.com had him rated as a 3rd round selection. I'm sure that Kiper had Ryan rated differently as well.

Who cares what the Draft Sites rate these players at? The only one who I'd take their evaluation of the kid over the Patriots Scouting department is Joel Buschbaum. And, unfortunately, he died a few years back.

DraftCountdown.com had him listed as a Rd 2 or Rd 3 prospect. I mean, it sure looks like the Pats took Logan Ryan right about where he was expected.

 

[VrabelJr]

In other news: The Pittsburgh Steelers have really ****ed us twice now. First, they matched Emmanuel Sanders' tender. Then they go ahead and take Markus Wheaton. What a bunch of dirt bags.

 

[DaBruinz]

Let me know which WTF pick Bill's had that has EVER worked out.

Matthew Slater. Julian Edelman. Just to name two off the top of my head..

 

[Wilfork#75]

Hmmm.... Our drafts actually improved dramatically after Pioli left.

I really don't understand the idiocy on this board? There are very few sure things when it comes to drafting players. BB's recent and long term history of selecting players is as good as any.

All teams miss on players from time to time.

The fact that you or other media sources aren't high on a prospect means nothing. Getting worked up about this stuff before we've ever seen the guys play is foolish.

Failing to learn all of the above and repeating the same process year after year is both boring and annoying.

But lets look at the types of players who have been successful from those drafts. I'll leave out 2012 because its too early to tell still and won't count late round guys.

2011
Nate Solder- 1st round pick, highly regarded but raw. About right for value
Ras-I Dowling- Talented but injury prone in college, most people considered it a reach because of his injury history
Shane Vereen- Highly regarded and proper value in the 2nd round
Stevan Ridley- Mixed views on him, some 'experts' really liked him, some thought it was a reach. Very good pick
Ryan Mallett- Very highly regarded, fell due to character concerns, 1st round talent
Marcus Cannon- Very talented, fell due to medical concerns

2010
Devin McCourty- Projected as a late 1st rounder, proper value, good pick
Rob Gronkowski- Highly talented, fell out of 1st round due to injury
Jermaine Cunningham- Seen as a late 2nd/3rd rounder but more highly regarded pass rushers on the board when he was drafted.
Brandon Spikes- was very highly regarded, fell due to questions over athleticism
Taylor Price- very raw, small school guy from a running offense. Still don't understand this one.
Aaron Hernandez- Rated by most as a 2nd rounder, fell due to character reasons (drugs)

2009
Pat Chung- rated as a 2nd rounder, reasonable value
Ron Brace- late riser, seen as a 2nd rounder, reasonable value
Darius Butler- late riser, most had him as a late 1st rounder, considered a steal at the time
Sebastian Vollmer- Seen by most as an under the radar 3rd round. Some had him higher, some lower.
Brandon Tate- once considered a 1st round talent, fell to 3rd due to injury, sleeper
Tyrone McKenzie- Solid player, reasonable value in the late 3rd round

2008
Jerod Mayo- late riser, considered a mid 1st rounder, good value
Terrence Wheately- reach in the 2nd round with injury history (projected as a 5-6th rounder)
Shawn Crable- seen as a 3rd/4th rounder, decent value
Kevin O'Connell- seen as one of the better 3rd tier QB's
Jonathan Wilhite- seen as a mid/late round guy, proper value

Bold= Hits
Italics = Misses
Others are in between or too early to tell

Of the guys listed I think you have to give BB huge credit for the Vollmer and Ridley picks. Some people thought they were reaches but both were very good picks.

However, when I look at the guys I would consider the most successful, its the guys that were just good football players. They didn't get cute, they just took the best guys. Cannon, Spikes, Gronk and Hernandez all fell due to different issues and we took advantage. Mayo, Solder and McCourty all went around where they were suppose to go. All 3 of those guys I genuinely believe were on the top of the board at the time. This is the kind of drafting we need to do, more like what Baltimore and the Steelers do.

Obviously some picks will always bust, and with the Pats generally having extra picks there is a chance more guys will buts. I can live with the Tyrone McKenzie, Darius Butler, Shawn Crable and Ron Brace busts. But I think there is a lot more the Pats can do to reduce those busts. Its the Taylor Price, Terrence Wheately and Kevin O'Connell picks we need to learn from. Just draft the best football players.

 

[DaBruinz]

BB drafted Harmon over them, he doesn't want them.

Seriously, why not draft Lattimore and put him on IR immediately, no one can argue that's worse than drafting Harmon.

Saying that he doesn't want them is inaccurate. He just had Harmon rated higher than he had those players.

 

[Rob0729]

The problems with the 2006-2009 drafts were varied, and including screwing up by trading down.



See above, and the Pats blew the draft in the sense that you know I'm talking about. There's no need to wait. If the Jets had pulled this crap, you'd have wet your pants from laughter.*



* Disclaimer: This is the poster's opinion of the points being raised specifically in the quoted post, about the general discussion at hand, and he realizes that others may agree or disagree. He considers that understood on a message board.

I laugh at the Jets because it is fun to laugh at the Jets. When they do weird things like drafting for positions that they are set in while the rest of their roster is a mess with two high first round picks is just fun to laugh at, but Idzik could be the one laughing three years from now.

Also, the Jets haven't had even a draft good enough to be mediocre since 2008. So it is easy to assume they blew their draft.

As far as how well the Pats drafted tonight, none of us know if the Pats blew this draft or had one of the best drafts of the Belichick era. It is a complete unknown at this point. I personally like the first three picks, you obviously don't. In a few years, we will find out who is right.

I mean virtually every year the Bengals come away from the draft with an A grade by most of the analysts and media. Three years later when the media regrades the same draft with the knowledge of how the picks pan out, they usually get a failing grade for the same draft they got an A for three years earlier.

I feel that Caserio has put together a solid scouting department and he and Belichick have the same synergy that Belichick had with Pioli. I trust them to make the right picks because they put together three solid drafts in a row.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Matthew Slater. Julian Edelman. Just to name two off the top of my head..

If Harmon was taken where these guys were I would be fine with the pick.

 

[DaBruinz]

I just went back and looked, the only guy in the last 5 years or so that worked out was Vollmer. I would much rather go with the Steelers/Ravens approach and just take the best guys available instead of getting cute. I don't mind the trade downs but you still need to take the best players.

Matthew Slater and Julian Edelman both say "HI". And yes, they were WTF picks. I can remember distinctly the reaction of the board to both of them.

 

[DaBruinz]

Vollmer was not a WTF pick....he was first round talent easily.

Like hell he wasn't a "WTF" pick. Vollmer did not have a 1st round ground or even a 2nd. Most places had him as a 3rd or 4th round pick. And this board was all over the place on it.

 

[WhiZa]

I told you guys last night they would trade back and fill out the back up roles on this team and draft players with minimal impact. I like Dobson and maybe the linebacker does something, but damn the team isn't better than last year. It is worse.

I can't agree with this. The only position we are weaker in is WR. On defense we are stacked now that we have Talib/Denard at fulltime and McCourtry moving to safety. Collins is going to make an impact this year imo. It may not look like the same old Patriots, but I feel we will become reliant more on the defense this year than we were use to. We will need them to step up if we plan on getting anywhere in the playoffs. Brady will play better without having to carry the team on his shoulders. He can focus on winning games and not just putting up big numbers.

 

[condon84]

You do realize 2010 is arguably the best draft of Belichick's career?

My bad, I meant 06-09. And yes, 2010 was one of BB's best.

 

[PATRlOT]

Matthew Slater. Julian Edelman. Just to name two off the top of my head..

A 7th rounder (Edelman) as a "WTF Pick"??? No...

 

[Deus Irae]

I laugh at the Jets because it is fun to laugh at the Jets. When they do weird things like drafting for positions that they are set in while the rest of their roster is a mess with two high first round picks is just fun to laugh at, but Idzik could be the one laughing three years from now.

Meet the Patriots first pick of the draft. It's every bit as laughable as the Jets defensive picks. It's more so, really, because they took a guy with a motor problem in the process.

They screwed the pooch. This is a 2006-2009 style draft.*

* Disclaimer: This is the poster's opinion of the points being raised specifically in the quoted post, about the general discussion at hand, and he realizes that others may agree or disagree. He considers that understood on a message board.