Cap Update

[ctpatsfan77]

Koutouvides will cost something.

Koutouvides probably has a vet-minimum contract, which will have a negligible effect on the cap (<$100K).

 

[mgteich]

I was confused because your listing shows both the dead money and Lloyd's compensation as a player.

Yes, his release was the reason why the Patriots' dead money jumped from $4.6 million to $6.6 million.

 

[Miguel]

I was confused because your listing shows both the dead money and Lloyd's compensation as a player.

Good catch. Fixed.

 

[The Scrizz]

Holy crap, it's Miguel! Hallelujah! I assume that the Pats salary page is back? Welcome back. Unless you've been here and I have it noticed in which case...

welcome back belatedly.

 

[mgteich]

Two more minor edits

(A) The year at the top of the page has a typo.

(B) You now have 50 players, and need to add one to replace Lloyd.

Good catch. Fixed.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Miguel's in training camp. Just getting adjusted to two a days. I'm not worried

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

For what it's worth, Spotrac has Svitek's contract as 1 year/$1,000,000. Miguel looks already to have it.

I'm really surprised we don't have any hard info on Wilson and Arrington yet.

 

[yopats]

Good catch. Fixed.

Miguel a question regarding the Jonathan Fanene cap hit..

From this article by Greg Bedard last year..

"But it's not the end of the world. The Patriots will take a $2.025 million cap hit this year, and another $1.925 million next."

When they appeal this.. is it possible they get the full amount back close to $4mill?

 

[JMC00]

Jeff Howe's educated guess is $9 million is left.Most of cap room gone, but Patriots have other holes to fill | Boston Herald

 

[supafly]

Jeff Howe's educated guess is $9 million is left.Most of cap room gone, but Patriots have other holes to fill | Boston Herald

I'd have a hard time believing that myself. I'd be interested in hearing Miguel's take on it.

I'd have to guess that we'd have about 11-12 million or so, which would still be almost 1/2 of what they started with.

It was about 17 prior to Wilson, Arrington, and Svitek's hits. I think that Howe is off by at least 2-3 million personally.

 

[supafly]

this is pretty much in the realm of nitpicking , and it may just confuse things further, but 15m would be my current guesstimate --- so, yes.




this is how the popular peoples' party interprets the writings:
I could see arrington at 3m - 500k for replacing the 51st guy = 2.5m
that puts us at around 15m
wilson is an older guy, so I suspect the 3 yr deal is to hide cap in the form of a roster bonus(?), which leads me to believe the cap figure might only be 2-3 m (-500k for replacing 51st guy).
I thought I had read somewhere around here that we still have 2.5m coming from fanene, which cancels out wilson's figure, but maybe fanene is already cooked in.

bottomline - just wait and see what happens

Thanks AZ. So we are likely at $13.5 (plus or minus $1MM) AND still have the possibility of getting as much as another $2MM from the Fenene arbitration, and still significantly more from possible restructures to Mankins and Wilfolk if needed.

Good. That's a lot of room, but there is still a lot to do. Adding Volmer, Edelman, and Abraham should not break that bank, and keep us from drafting for any immediate need.

Just a note on the impact of an improved secondary that I wonder if people get. An improved and effective secondary allows the rest of the defense to play more aggressively. ie blitz and stunt more. Any defense that blitzes and stunts more will produce more pressure on the QB. If the secondary holds up, its effective, if they don't it won't be. The past few years BB knew that the secondary wouldn't hold up and only blitzed around 10-15%, about half the league average, while some teams do it as much as 50%

I think that by just being aggressive at just the league average, this team, with the same personnel up front would create more pressure. NOW if you finally add a DB who can effectively blitz, and other proven rusher, and a 2nd year bounce from Hightower and Jones, and it gets better still.

I'm getting very excited about this group, so here's a conservative prediction in the short run. A top 12 defense in total yds. A top 15 defense in passing yds. A top 10 defense in scoring. And if we have some good luck health-wise, I'd bet it will be better

If it has to be yes or no, then no.

We do not need to estimate Jones. We have the information. The three signings that, to my understanding, we have to estimate are Arrington, Wilson, and Koutouvides.

Miguel has us as 17.9 million under without those three. Accordingly, the answer to your question would be yes only if we estimated the cap hit in 2013 for those three players to be 2.9 million. It will be more than that. The annual amount of Arrington's contract is reported to be $4 million. Even if he gets a large bonus, it's going to be a cap hit of at least 2.5 million I think. Wilson will probably also be in the 2 million range. Koutouvides will cost something. Even if you figure these players net cap hits because of cuts, it's going to be more than 2.9 million. I'm going to guess, unless the Arrington contract comes in with severely deferred cap hits due to a bonus, that the Patriots are around $13.5 million or so.

It's interesting we don't have details yet on the Wilson or Arrington contacts. The others came to light within a day or so.

I'd be interested in hearing your takes on Howe's article stating that most of the money has been spent, and that we're currently only 9 million under with 4-5 needing to be tied up for rookies (I thought it was about 3.75 for us this year), leaving us only approximately 4.5 left to sign a laundry list full of players that he breaks down.

At least 2-3 sources had us at approximately 17 today prior to the A.Wilson, Koutevides, Arrington, and Svitek pacts--which I honestly can't see taking up more than about 5.5 to 6 myself.

 

[eom]

I'd be interested in hearing your takes on Howe's article stating that most of the money has been spent, and that we're currently only 9 million under with 4-5 needing to be tied up for rookies (I thought it was about 3.75 for us this year), leaving us only approximately 4.5 left to sign a laundry list full of players that he breaks down.

At least 2-3 sources had us at approximately 17 today prior to the A.Wilson, Koutevides, Arrington, and Svitek pacts--which I honestly can't see taking up more than about 5.5 to 6 myself.

my take would be if miguel says 17m wtf is jeff howe?

I'd also like to see how he comes up with 5m for rookies.

another thing to bear in mind is that we're talking about cap figs as of today -- we don't know what future cuts or trades may happen, or who will make the final 53, so cap situation may change before we even get into mankins or wilfork restructures.

 

[supafly]

my take would be if miguel says 17m wtf is jeff howe?

I'd also like to see how he comes up with 5m for rookies.

another thing to bear in mind is that we're talking about cap figs as of today -- we don't know what future cuts or trades may happen, or who will make the final 53, so cap situation may change before we even get into mankins or wilfork restructures.

I guess that Howe is taking into account the 3 signings that haven't gone on the books yet in Arrington, Wilson, and Koutevides. I just think he's entirely overestimating them, at least by 2-3 million.

I'll be interested in seeing what they do with Vollmer. I would rather see a pass rusher like Abraham brought in, along with a WR. I don't think there'd be money for all 3 unless they freed some additional funds up like you say.

 

[yopats]

At least 2-3 sources had us at approximately 17 today prior to the A.Wilson, Koutevides, Arrington, and Svitek pacts--which I honestly can't see taking up more than about 5.5 to 6 myself.

I would not be shocked if it's around 4mill for them combined as I don't think Koutevides counts agains the cap at this time.

Bedard posted something yesterday
https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/313102666748289025

Kyle Arrington received a $6.5 million signing bonus. Should have $2.625 million cap number this year.

I'm banking on Wilson being under 1.4 too..

 

[eom]

I guess that Howe is taking into account the 3 signings that haven't gone on the books yet in Arrington, Wilson, and Koutevides. I just think he's entirely overestimating them, at least by 2-3 million.

I'll be interested in seeing what they do with Vollmer. I would rather see a pass rusher like Abraham brought in, along with a WR. I don't think there'd be money for all 3 unless they freed some additional funds up like you say.

i think they absolutely could afford all 3

 

[supafly]

I would not be shocked if it's around 4mill for them combined as I don't think Koutevides counts agains the cap at this time.

Bedard posted something yesterday
https://twitter.com/GregABedard/status/313102666748289025

Kyle Arrington received a $6.5 million signing bonus. Should have $2.625 million cap number this year.

I'm banking on Wilson being under 1.4 too..

Thanks for the info. That would be ideal, and would still leave them at about 12.5 left, or roughly 1/2 of what they started with (minus about 4 for rookies).

 

[supafly]

i think they absolutely could afford all 3

It would depend on how you viewed their upcoming possibilities.

Vollmer would undoubtably be their most expensive signing, not just to date in the FA period, but possibly in the entire offseason. Long just signed for 8.5 aav and Cherilus signed for 7.1 aav. I'm assuming that Vollmer is anywhere from 5.5 to 6.5. Either way he'd be our most expensive signing.

That isn't even taking into account the WR dilemma, assuming that they add someone of E.Sanders stature or possibly even better, which will easily be another 4.5 to 5.5 million right there (for Sanders). More if someone better is being targeted.

Then there's the pass rusher. Some are speaking of Dumervil, who will bring in at least 5.5 to 6.5 million right there. Or Abraham/Freeny--who should come cheaper but still cost approx. 3--3.5 or so.

I can't see any way they could possibly sign ALL 3, or if they'd even want to. I just want to see WR and pass rusher addressed above all else.

 

[Miguel]

Miguel, great to have you back. As a named helper of your original work (though for the life of me I can't remember or image what I contributed )l

It was not for my original work. I started my cap pages in 2001. It was for some assistance after I joined patsfans.com.

 

[Miguel]

Miguel a question regarding the Jonathan Fanene cap hit..

From this article by Greg Bedard last year..

"But it's not the end of the world. The Patriots will take a $2.025 million cap hit this year, and another $1.925 million next."

When they appeal this.. is it possible they get the full amount back close to $4mill?

IIRC, the ruling was that they could go after $2.5 million.

 

[Miguel]

I'd be interested in hearing your takes on Howe's article stating that most of the money has been spent, and that we're currently only 9 million under with 4-5 needing to be tied up for rookies (I thought it was about 3.75 for us this year), leaving us only approximately 4.5 left to sign a laundry list full of players that he breaks down.

At least 2-3 sources had us at approximately 17 today prior to the A.Wilson, Koutevides, Arrington, and Svitek pacts--which I honestly can't see taking up more than about 5.5 to 6 myself.

I think that Howe is wrong.

I have said many times that
AdamJT13: The NFL rookie pool and the salary cap

is a must read. I will now add Jason's work on the rookie pool to my must-read list
» Over the Cap- Patriots 2013 Draft Class Rookie Contract and Salary Cap Estimates

I will try to contact Jeff today.