Salary Cap Status as of 1/3

[Rob0729]

If I am discounting the possibility that the Colts may franchise Freeney at a cost of $8.644 million, then I am also discounting the possibilities that there are other ways for the Colts to free up cap space. They could extend Glenn. They could extend McFarland. They could redo Wayne's deal. They could redo Brock's deal. They could redo Diem's deal. They could release Stokley. They could get Stokley to lower his cap number. I am not discounting the fact that a SB appearance and a possible SB victory will help the Colts in the cash-flow department. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are. I am not discounting the fact that making to the Super Bowl and maybe winning the Super Bowl will make the Colts a more attractive destination for free agents, especially those who fit the Cover-2 system. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are. I am not discounting the fact that making to the Super Bowl and maybe winning the Super Bowl will make it easier for the Colts to retain their free agents as they will have to decide do they want to be like Edge who left for $$$ and is now seeing his former teammates in the Super Bow or do they want to win. I am not discounting the fact that the Colts have been one of the 3 youngest teams in the NFL the past two years so the Colts have been coaching up young players in their system for awhile now and some of those young players may be ready to step in and replace any lost UFAs. I am not discounting the fact that the Colts are going to get very good comp picks for the losses of David Thorton, Tripplett, and Edge. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are. I am not discounting the fact that the Colts had 22 players on reserve lists this year and that some (Reagor, Pope, Doss) are probably expected to replace lost UFAs in 2007. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are.

I ask once again - how much cap space do the Colts need to have in order to be considered capable of fielding a playoff team in 2007?? As soon as someone tells me that number and how they come up with that number, I will list to the best of my ability the myriad of ways that the Colts can get to that number. IMO, if no one can provide that number, then all of this talk of the Colts facing an implosion is just wishful thinking just like all of the talk of the Colts imploding in 2006 around the same time last year has been proven to be wishful thinking.

I was just pointing out a major factor to consider in the Colts' free agency. You were throwing around a $15 million number and I was pointing out that if they franchise Freeney, that number is not nearly as big.

I am not predicting doom for the Colts in 2007, but I think their enormous deals for Manning, Harrison (who still have a lot of dead money and is already 34), Wayne, and a few others will pick apart this team over the next few years.

I think the Patriots comparison is not accurate because the Colts have given out big money contract to more players than the Pats did when they pushed money back. Besides, that practice nearly bit us in the butt when we were forced to cut Lawyer Milloy a week before the season because we were over the cap and it was either cut Milloy or several other players because Milloy refused to make a deal. And they eventually had to cut Ty Law because his cap value got way too high for his value.

I am not worried about the Colts being active players in free agency. Polian's history is to let solid defensive players go (Thornton, Mike Peterson, etc.) to the detriment of the team rather than paying them. He is also not an active player in free agency ever. He has a few free agent acquistions over the years like Vinatieri and Corey Simon, but he likes to build through the draft. I fully expect Polian not to restructure a lot of contracts just to get flushed with money and let some of his players go.

As for winning the Super Bowl making Indy attractive to potential free agents, but probably not this year with so many teams with tons of money especially since a lot of them are cover 2 defenses. Even if the Colts free up money, how are they going to compete with teams that already have $30 million before they make any roster moves or restructures.

As for winning a Super Bowl making free agents wanting to stay, I point to Damien Woody, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Tebuckey Jones, etc. who all left the Pats rather than take less to try to continue a Super Bowl run because they already had their rings.

As for compensation picks, they don't offset the second rounder they lost for the trade of Booger McFarland. Only Edge got a contract that was exorbtent, but he was the 12th leading rusher. Also, with Vinatieri being the highest paid player at his position, he will offset some of those guys for picks. So in the league's clandestine way of determining what type of compensation each team gets, the Colts will probably get a fourth and a sixth all together.

 

[everlong]

With 18 teams having 20M+ I think the price for many of the top end players is going to be through the roof. The Patriots always build through the draft and by having a solid middle class of players so that when injuries come, and they will, there is no drop off. The only way we are getting one of the top guys is if they are willing to take a fair market deal to come to a winner. Players looking to break the bank need not apply. When we signed Colvin that was a fair deal for both parties. He didn't bend over and say thank you sir may I have another.

So if somebody like Thomas, Hamlin, Grant, Briggs.........

A. Doesn't get tagged
B. Wants to play for a winner and get paid not just break the bank

Then we could get one of them.

I still think they'll look at guys like Polk (LB SD) or Washington (WR Cincy) to add some youth and depth. Couple that with a good draft and we'll be ready for another run.

I think the point people were trying to make, or perhaps missing the boat completely, about Indy is they beat us twice this year. The 7 pointer we turned it over 5 times. The 4 pointer it was one of those games where if one play goes differently we are in the SB, and there were 10 plays that were so close. When we beat Indy in 03 and 04 the playoff games were not that close. They got crushed.

So lets say Indy can only sign 5/8 of this list

LG Ryan Lilja
RG Jake Scott
TE Ben Utecht
RDE Dwight Freeney
SLB Rob Morris
WLB Cato June
LCB Nick Harper
RCB Jason David

and only 3/4 of the big names, it could be more it could be less this is just an example but it's not hyperbole either, and lets assume for the sake of argument both the Colts and Pats have good drafts, they both certainly have good track records. The Colts had Stokley and Simon out we'll give them both of them for having Harrison and Wilson back. So far everything is even. Now lets say we go out and grab just one decent FA. I'll use Polk from SD as a ILB who can run and cover. That right there might be one tipped pass that makes a 38-34 loss a 34-31 victory.

The Colts are a playoff team next year barring injuries but IMO the team we should be focusing on is San Diego. This was their learning curve year. They have a ton of young talent and yes I know about the Marty factor and they lost a coordinator, who called an awful second half, but they are the team we need to match IMO and they have almost as much free cap space as we do.

 

[Jimke]

This is the first year that the Pats have been in good shape. With

48 players already under contract, they should be able to splurge a

little and sign or re-sign a couple of good players. Otherwise, they

will have to figure out a lot of LTBE incentive bonuses.

 

[spacecrime]

Oh, my. The Colts may have to cut players or redo deals. Gee, every team cuts players or redoes player's deals each and every year. I finally get it -When the Patriots cuts a player or redoes a player's deal, it is a good salary cap practice. When the Colts does the same thing, it means salary cap hell for the Colts.

No, not at all. You are way too smart to believe what you are saying, so why are you saying this?

The difference is having $30 mil of space and a couple of key FAs, vs having $5 mil of free space and twice as many (or more) key FAs.

If they Pats had as many FAs next year (UFA and RFA) as the Colts and only $5 mil cap space, no one would be bragging about what a good cap job we'd been doing. Everyone would be down on the Pats because they had a relatively large number of FAs and relativelly little cap space (compared to the rest of the league).

Think about it, we are concerned about Samuel, Graham and Banta-Cain, and we are near the top of the cap money available list. The Colts have the equivalent of Samuel, Hobbs, Colvin, Bruschi, Seymour, Dillon, and one of Graham/Watson as FAs. And the Colts are at the bottom of the available cap money list.

It isn't bad to push cap money into the future, any more than it is bad to use your Visa or MasterCard. But when you get to the point that your obligations are affecting your day-to-day life or means of doing business, you have done it too much. That is all that posters are saying: the Colts (and Steelers and Panthers) have done it too much. CHargers and Pats have not.

Everything I've read talks about an excess of money this year with the cap going up again. The price of players will go up, not down.

The Colts have $5 mil to play with. Sure they can re-do some deals and free up money, but so can the teams with $30 mil re-do deals and free up more money. There just isn't any way you can look at the list of cap space and list of FAs for all the teams and say the Colts are not in rough shape compared to most teams.

I think the Patriots have enough money (in cap space or by re-doing deals) to sign all their FAs (RFA and UFA), sign a couple key FAs from other teams, and have money left over for all 12 potential rookies.

Can the Colts do that?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

12 New England Patriots $26.98 M

13 Chicago Bears $26.9 M

14 New Orleans Saints $26 M

15 San Diego Chargers $24.6 M


That's frightening almost...the 2 best AFC teams and the 2 best NFC teams all have a lot of $ to spend.

depends on who's signed and who's not. the jets, for example, have few free agents next year, so at $28MM are in great shape.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

It occurs to me that these numbers are only semi-meaningful on their own. We need another column stating the number of players under contract for 2007. E.g. $30 mil under the cap is pretty huge if you only have to fill 5 holes, but nothing if you have to fill out half your roster!

great point and i wish i had the time to research it...does anybody have any data...from reading the new york papers i know that the jets are in great shape re free agency next year...

 

[Miguel]

As for compensation picks, they don't offset the second rounder they lost for the trade of Booger McFarland. Only Edge got a contract that was exorbtent, but he was the 12th leading rusher. Also, with Vinatieri being the highest paid player at his position, he will offset some of those guys for picks. So in the league's clandestine way of determining what type of compensation each team gets, the Colts will probably get a fourth and a sixth all together.

I did not mention Adam because I think that Vandrjagt's contract offset his.

The Colts will probably get a 3rd for Edge, a 4th for Thorton, and a 6th/7th for Tripplett.

 

[Rob0729]

I did not mention Adam because I think that Vandrjagt's contract offset his.

The Colts will probably get a 3rd for Edge, a 4th for Thorton, and a 6th/7th for Tripplett.

Vanderjagt was cut. I thought it was a formula of salary, playing time, and postseason awards. If it is, Vanderjagt will not offset Vinatieri since Vanderjagt only played half a season.

Also, isn't amount money spent based on the position not total money spent? With Vinatieri being the highest paid kicker, he might offset Edge (but then again he is a kicker and they might discount his position because he is a special teams player).

I kinda doubt they will get a third rounder for Edge or a fourth rounder for Thornton. Last year, the Jets were the only team to get a third round compensatory pick and only four teams got fourth round picks. Edge's production may drop him to a fourth . Thornton will probably be a fifth rounder. You gotta remember that both guys may have gotten big contract, but not that big when you figure last year's spending spree. I could be wrong on this, but predictions are pretty high.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

I ask once again - how much cap space do the Colts need to have in order to be considered capable of fielding a playoff team in 2007?? As soon as someone tells me that number and how they come up with that number, I will list to the best of my ability the myriad of ways that the Colts can get to that number. IMO, if no one can provide that number, then all of this talk of the Colts facing an implosion is just wishful thinking just like all of the talk of the Colts imploding in 2006 around the same time last year has been proven to be wishful thinking.

I am going to make the assumption that the Patriots will have around $30M after restructuring some contracts.

Assumptions:
Assante is either signed or franchised
Daniel Grahm is signed
Larry Izzo is signed
Junior is resigned

If Assante is signed:
5 years $30M with a $10M signing Bonus - Cap Hit about $4M
Grahm Signed
4 Years $18M with a $6M signing Bonus - Cap Hit about $4.5M

Remaining cap room = $21M

For the Colts to remain competitive in the off season it will take adding about $10 to $15M to their cap room.

Let's assume that they resign June and Freeny.
June will demand at least $16 to 20M
Freeny will demand at least $25 to 30M

Given those numbers that will eat up 2/3 of the extra $10 million at least, that still leaves them with about $7M. Take $3M away for signing their draft picks, and another $2M for mad money during the season it leaves them in cap hell, never mind signing their other free agents.

Play the same game with the patriots money and they still have about $13 millinon to sign a LB, CB and WR, or any conbination of them.

Unless they decide to get some real cap relief, the clts will have a tough off season.

 

[Return of the Nizz]

Hey Miguel, if I'm reading you cap page correctly, you have the Pats at a little over thirty million under as of right now. Do you know of any reason for the discrepancy? In general I tend to trust your info over sites like this.


Also, are you related to Bill Polian? (Just Kidding)

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I will prefice this by saying that IMHO Miguel admires many things besides the team he roots for, not the least of which is talent and another GM's ability and willingness to manipulate the cap to the max. I sense that Miguel has been frustrated of late in the Patriots approach in not doing deals they could easily "afford" with available manipulation of the cap in favor of holding the line on salaries and preference to pay as you go in many instances.

Had the new TV deal not created a one time windfall, or had the new CBA not been enacted as was very nearly the case, the Colts were dead in the waters of cap hell in 2006 and desperately scrambling (including threatening lawsuits against their NFL partners) to avoid making additional roster cuts just to get to the cap. The $12M windfall bailed out a lot of teams who had been playing the cap game to it's limits. Indy will continue to play the game because they have no choice. The Patriots perfer to operate from a different basis. We will let players go because we choose to for value reasons, not because we have to for financial reasons.

Manning is due another $10M roster bonus this season, but worse for them his bonuses are done after that and his salaries start skyrocketing against heavy earlier amortization. He will require a new deal by 2008 or they will face $17-21M cap hits on the back end of this deal. A new deal for Peyton will require another $30M+ signing bonus that will just start the cycle over again as he heads into his late 30's. Harrison is out of bonuses and heading down the same road contract wise. Sure they can extend him into his 40's, but eventually they will have to play the piper. And if the talk of some kind of cash over cap penalty is true they may find themselves paying sooner as well as later.

That said the Colts are going to Miami this season and we are not. But we've got three Lombardi's in the case and are in a great cap position that should enable us to compete for several more in the coming years. Not so sure the Colts will be able to remain quite as competitive following their first trip since relocating the franchise to the Indiana. And if they don't manage to win it this once it will be armeggedon in the Heartland. Tennessee and Jacksonville are up and coming, moreso I feel than the JETS or Buffalo, and the AFC itself is basically competitively loaded for bear. Their defense is even more dependent on Sanders than ours is on Harrison, and he's even more fragile at a younger age. They positively bleed LB's either because they cannot play or someone else can and will overpay them if they do.

All teams play in a window to some extent. But with 3 in the bank and a FO who proceeds on the tennant that when you do leave you want to insure the team is in a position to to allow it to maintain competitiveness for some time to come, we are free to enjoy the view from that window rather than fearing it is about to slam shut and you are cash strapped to replace it because you mortgaged the future trying to keep it propped it open in the present.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I am going to make the assumption that the Patriots will have around $30M after restructuring some contracts.

Assumptions:
Assante is either signed or franchised
Daniel Grahm is signed
Larry Izzo is signed
Junior is resigned

If Assante is signed:
5 years $30M with a $10M signing Bonus - Cap Hit about $4M
Grahm Signed
4 Years $18M with a $6M signing Bonus - Cap Hit about $4.5M

Remaining cap room = $21M

For the Colts to remain competitive in the off season it will take adding about $10 to $15M to their cap room.

Let's assume that they resign June and Freeny.
June will demand at least $16 to 20M
Freeny will demand at least $25 to 30M

Given those numbers that will eat up 2/3 of the extra $10 million at least, that still leaves them with about $7M. Take $3M away for signing their draft picks, and another $2M for mad money during the season it leaves them in cap hell, never mind signing their other free agents.

Play the same game with the patriots money and they still have about $13 millinon to sign a LB, CB and WR, or any conbination of them.

Unless they decide to get some real cap relief, the clts will have a tough off season.

I don't think the PAt's will have to restructure anything, although again they may choose to persue restructures for value.

The going rate for LB's will likely dictate June gets at least that, and likely a little more. The going rate for DE's, and Freeney's hype and ego dictates he gets more along the lines of 6 x $9M++. If Polian can resign either it will be to another heacily bonused and backloaded deal. Those leave him teetering on the edge in the present at best while ignoring the future because hey, who knows what's down the road. He could be gone, the league could uncap and implode or they networks could step up and bail them all out again. We play as if the worst could happen, he plays as if it likely won't.

 

[Miguel]

No, not at all. You are way too smart to believe what you are saying, so why are you saying this?

Why??

Let's go back to 2006.

The Colts lose players to free agency. This board predicts that the Colts implode. The Pats lose players to free agency. This board says that the 2006 team is the best Patriots team ever. If I wanted to do, I could go back and find posts where the Pats were lauded for letting players like Givens/Willie/Adam go and the Colts criticized for letting players like Edge/Tripplett go. Both teams had set a value for a player. That player was able to get more money from another team. Same actions. Different reviews.

 

[Miguel]

There just isn't any way you can look at the list of cap space and list of FAs for all the teams and say the Colts are not in rough shape compared to most teams.

Compared to most teams, the Colts are indeed in rough shape. In terms of the ability to field a playoff contending team, they are not. It does not matter how much cap space you have compared to other teams. It matters if you have enough cap space in absolute terms.

 

[E Belichick Unum]

Compared to most teams, the Colts are indeed in rough shape. In terms of the ability to field a playoff contending team, they are not. It does not matter how much cap space you have compared to other teams. It matters if you have enough cap space in absolute terms.

But do they have enough "real time" cap space? On offense that look OK, nothing really except Dominic Rhodes. On the defensive side they are in trouble. Their two starting LB, the starting DE, the starting CB. They do not ave enough room to sign them all, they don't have enough room to even start talking to them.

I admit that they will have a great offence still, although they will lose offensive line depth, but they are going to have to be creative if they want to keep winning. I suppose Peyton could be restructured, but for how much? The number I have seen is $12M+, even if he gave them another $4M after restructure, it doesn't begin to address the amount of talent they will lose.

But, if you look at the list, the colts might be the least of our worries. The Chargers, Bears and the Saints are right there with us. It is going to be a dog fight this off season and just being a winning team isn't going to sway the talent our way.

 

[Miguel]

I will prefice this by saying that IMHO Miguel admires many things besides the team he roots for, not the least of which is talent and another GM's ability and willingness to manipulate the cap to the max.

More than anything, I admire a GM's ability to build a SB contending team.

I sense that Miguel has been frustrated of late in the Patriots approach in not doing deals they could easily "afford" with available manipulation of the cap in favor of holding the line on salaries and preference to pay as you go in many instances.

Your sense is wrong.

We will let players go because we choose to for value reasons, not because we have to for financial reasons.

Do you think that the Colts should have paid Edge what he got from the Cards?? the Colts should have paid Thorton what he got from the Titans???

Manning is due another $10M roster bonus this season, but worse for them his bonuses are done after that and his salaries start skyrocketing against heavy earlier amortization.

Simply not true. Because of the Deion rules 23.3 million of Manning's 34.5 million has already been amortized. The Colts will amortize another $3.7 million in 2007.

He will require a new deal by 2008 or they will face $17-21M cap hits on the back end of this deal. A new deal for Peyton will require another $30M+ signing bonus that will just start the cycle over again as he heads into his late 30's.

A take that I totally disagree with. With the cap being so high and with the Colts having so many young players, they need to have players like Manning and Harrison taking so much cap space to meet the minimum floor requirement.

Harrison is out of bonuses and heading down the same road contract wise. Sure they can extend him into his 40's, but eventually they will have to play the piper.

Once Harrison is not worth the new money, he will not get it. Starting in 2008 it will save the Colts cap space by releasing him.

That said the Colts are going to Miami this season and we are not.

There is nothing more important than that fact.

 

[Miguel]

I think the Patriots have enough money (in cap space or by re-doing deals) to sign all their FAs (RFA and UFA), sign a couple key FAs from other teams, and have money left over for all 12 potential rookies.

Can the Colts do that?

Please define enough money for the Colts.

 

[Miguel]

They do not ave enough room to sign them all, they don't have enough room to even start talking to them.

Please back this up with some facts.

I admit that they will have a great offence still, although they will lose offensive line depth,

How will they lose offensive line depth??

but they are going to have to be creative if they want to keep winning. I suppose Peyton could be restructured, but for how much?

The number I have seen is $12M+, even if he gave them another $4M after restructure,

I think that the number is $8.33 million. Redoing Manning's deal is not the only way that the Colts can free up cap space.

 

[Rob0729]

Compared to most teams, the Colts are indeed in rough shape. In terms of the ability to field a playoff contending team, they are not. It does not matter how much cap space you have compared to other teams. It matters if you have enough cap space in absolute terms.

Well, it all depends how the market reacts to all these having all this cap space. Based on last year's dollars, the Colts can work their cap to be competitive. But what if because all these teams have tons of cash even before they make roster moves, the average contracts jump the same 20% or so that the cap did. Then the Colts may not be in great shape to field a competitor.

Also, don't forget both Jacksonville and Tennessee are in the top 10 in terms of cap space available and both have over $30 million of cap space. Both only finished 3 to 4 games behind the Colts and split games with the Colts. That means one or both teams could assemble talent to either rival or surpass the Colts even if the Colts are able to keep all their key players. The Jags are a decent QB away from being a legitimate division title contender.

You can say the same about the Jets and Buffalo with us, but the jets currently only have about $1.5 million more worth of cap space and still have to deal with the cap ramifications of Curtis Martin retiring and the Bills only have about $12-13 million more. I think it is definitely a concern for the Pats that both teams have so much cap space, but they don't have as much of an advantage as the Colts' division rivals do.

 

[Miguel]

Vanderjagt was cut. I thought it was a formula of salary, playing time, and postseason awards. If it is, Vanderjagt will not offset Vinatieri since Vanderjagt only played half a season.

Adamjt13, the Internet's expert on comp picks, has always stated that salary has proven to be the most important factor.

Also, isn't amount money spent based on the position not total money spent?
[/quote]
No.