Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Miguel, Jan 24, 2007.
Thank you for the link...
- all the teams in out devision are in very good to OK shape salary cap wise, things will only get tougher.
-The Titans are out of cap purgatory which is amazing considering where they were 2 years ago.
-the steelers and the Colts are NOT in very good situations, cuts are restructuring will be needed for them to improve.
-why is Carolin in such a bad shape?
- and the Redskins are in deep S***
Confirming previous reports...
The Colts are fucked. Polian better win it this year or it's all over.
There's no way they're going to bring back all of the following starters who are all UFAs:
LG Ryan Lilja
RG Jake Scott
TE Ben Utecht
RDE Dwight Freeney
SLB Rob Morris
WLB Cato June
LCB Nick Harper
RCB Jason David
28 Baltimore Ravens $5.7 M
They might not be able to franchise Thomas. If he can play in Ryan's 3-4 he can play here and he can play all 4 LB spots.
I would be pumped if they could get him. They would get young and have an immediate impact player all at once.
It occurs to me that these numbers are only semi-meaningful on their own. We need another column stating the number of players under contract for 2007. E.g. $30 mil under the cap is pretty huge if you only have to fill 5 holes, but nothing if you have to fill out half your roster!
Dude i hope the Patriots bring in Nick Harper for a look he has always intrigued me.
12 New England Patriots $26.98 M
13 Chicago Bears $26.9 M
14 New Orleans Saints $26 M
15 San Diego Chargers $24.6 M
That's frightening almost...the 2 best AFC teams and the 2 best NFC teams all have a lot of $ to spend.
Exactly what I was going to say! And it would be even better if it also showed how many of the players under contract were projected starters...often big cap hits are being taken up by players who are no longer even with the team, or are not productive but are more expensive (under the cap) to cut than to keep.
Yep, what you guys said. Also, some could (currently) be affected by guys with inflated back-loaded deals which everybody knows will be restructured, if those players are to play for the team.
The Chargers GM is a very VERY good GM probably does a good a job as Pioli but goes unnoticed. The Patriots cap number will go up a bit more with some money transferring over from this past season to next and a couple of restructures that i know are going to happen.
We'll probably well over 30 million and have plenty of money to play with.
One of PFT's loopiest moments, as far as I'm concerned, was suggesting that the coach AND GM in San Diego could be shown the door after the playoff loss. Who out there has drafted better than the Chargers the past few years? The are LOADED with young talent.
But with some character problems (drugs, arrests).
Daniel Snyder must be going batty. He is jonesing to go after all these big name free agents like Nate Clement, Lance Briggs, Adalias Thomas, Asante Samuel, Dwight Freeney, and his team is in the worst cap shape in the league and one of only two teams that are actually negative in cap space.
I think there are a few players they are going to cut who might fit into our system better than theirs including some of their bigger free agent pick ups last year. Adam Archuletta was totally miss used in Washington. They wanted to use him as a coverage guy, but he is more of a run stuffer, pass rusher, and play closer to the line of scrimage guy. He might be a good rotational guy with Harrison. Andre Carter was a bust for them as a pick up as a DE, but he did fairly well as an OLB in the 3-4 in San Francisco the year before. He could be that Willie McGinest rotational guy with Vrabel and Colvin. David Patten is definitely going to be cut and he should be a good #4 or #5 WR for us.
Lilja, David and Scott are RFAs, not UFAs.
Utecht does not start at TE. Dallas Clark does.
The Colts are UNDER the cap by those numbers by $4.9 million. They can easily free up another $15 million by redoing the deals of Manning, Glenn,McFarland and Mathis. If the Colts work out deal with Simon, they may be able to get out of his deal which would free up close to another $7 million.
Yeah, the Colts are in bad shape only if you believe that Manning will turn 33 next year and that Dallas Clark does not start for the Colts.
Before everyone says that it is bad to push money into the future, the Pats have been doing it every year since BB and Pioli have arrived in Foxboro. In 2006 they pushed money into the future with Dillon and Seymour.
Oh, my. The Colts may have to cut players or redo deals. Gee, every team cuts players or redoes player's deals each and every year. I finally get it -When the Patriots cuts a player or redoes a player's deal, it is a good salary cap practice. When the Colts does the same thing, it means salary cap hell for the Colts.
The one thing you are discounting about the Colts is if they decide to franchise Freeney. What's the franchise number for DEs this year? I assume it is going to be around $8 million. So even if they free up another $15 million, half of that might go to one player.
Then what you are actually saying is that the raw rankings on the chart to which you linked cannot be used in any meaningful way to determine which teams will be well-off cap-wise next year, and which teams will not.
What is the purpose of posting this chart, then? Surely the majority of posters on this site, myself included, are not going to be able to use this information as it is?
Dude,this would be awsome with this happens....BB is coaching the probowl,maybe he will be able to bring Thomas in....I know this is out there...
Good point, but they still have to pay for them!
I would count either Klecko (FB) or Utecht (2TE) as a starter.
The Pats won't have do any of that this year!
If I am discounting the possibility that the Colts may franchise Freeney at a cost of $8.644 million, then I am also discounting the possibilities that there are other ways for the Colts to free up cap space. They could extend Glenn. They could extend McFarland. They could redo Wayne's deal. They could redo Brock's deal. They could redo Diem's deal. They could release Stokley. They could get Stokley to lower his cap number. I am not discounting the fact that a SB appearance and a possible SB victory will help the Colts in the cash-flow department. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are. I am not discounting the fact that making to the Super Bowl and maybe winning the Super Bowl will make the Colts a more attractive destination for free agents, especially those who fit the Cover-2 system. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are. I am not discounting the fact that making to the Super Bowl and maybe winning the Super Bowl will make it easier for the Colts to retain their free agents as they will have to decide do they want to be like Edge who left for $$$ and is now seeing his former teammates in the Super Bow or do they want to win. I am not discounting the fact that the Colts have been one of the 3 youngest teams in the NFL the past two years so the Colts have been coaching up young players in their system for awhile now and some of those young players may be ready to step in and replace any lost UFAs. I am not discounting the fact that the Colts are going to get very good comp picks for the losses of David Thorton, Tripplett, and Edge. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are. I am not discounting the fact that the Colts had 22 players on reserve lists this year and that some (Reagor, Pope, Doss) are probably expected to replace lost UFAs in 2007. I think that those who are predicting doom for the Colts in 2007 are.
I ask once again - how much cap space do the Colts need to have in order to be considered capable of fielding a playoff team in 2007?? As soon as someone tells me that number and how they come up with that number, I will list to the best of my ability the myriad of ways that the Colts can get to that number. IMO, if no one can provide that number, then all of this talk of the Colts facing an implosion is just wishful thinking just like all of the talk of the Colts imploding in 2006 around the same time last year has been proven to be wishful thinking.
And that will not be very difficult to do.
Even if we count Utecht as a starter and you are right we should, he is a RFA, not an UFA.
I was just pointing out a major factor to consider in the Colts' free agency. You were throwing around a $15 million number and I was pointing out that if they franchise Freeney, that number is not nearly as big.
I am not predicting doom for the Colts in 2007, but I think their enormous deals for Manning, Harrison (who still have a lot of dead money and is already 34), Wayne, and a few others will pick apart this team over the next few years.
I think the Patriots comparison is not accurate because the Colts have given out big money contract to more players than the Pats did when they pushed money back. Besides, that practice nearly bit us in the butt when we were forced to cut Lawyer Milloy a week before the season because we were over the cap and it was either cut Milloy or several other players because Milloy refused to make a deal. And they eventually had to cut Ty Law because his cap value got way too high for his value.
I am not worried about the Colts being active players in free agency. Polian's history is to let solid defensive players go (Thornton, Mike Peterson, etc.) to the detriment of the team rather than paying them. He is also not an active player in free agency ever. He has a few free agent acquistions over the years like Vinatieri and Corey Simon, but he likes to build through the draft. I fully expect Polian not to restructure a lot of contracts just to get flushed with money and let some of his players go.
As for winning the Super Bowl making Indy attractive to potential free agents, but probably not this year with so many teams with tons of money especially since a lot of them are cover 2 defenses. Even if the Colts free up money, how are they going to compete with teams that already have $30 million before they make any roster moves or restructures.
As for winning a Super Bowl making free agents wanting to stay, I point to Damien Woody, Ty Law, Lawyer Milloy, Tebuckey Jones, etc. who all left the Pats rather than take less to try to continue a Super Bowl run because they already had their rings.
As for compensation picks, they don't offset the second rounder they lost for the trade of Booger McFarland. Only Edge got a contract that was exorbtent, but he was the 12th leading rusher. Also, with Vinatieri being the highest paid player at his position, he will offset some of those guys for picks. So in the league's clandestine way of determining what type of compensation each team gets, the Colts will probably get a fourth and a sixth all together.
With 18 teams having 20M+ I think the price for many of the top end players is going to be through the roof. The Patriots always build through the draft and by having a solid middle class of players so that when injuries come, and they will, there is no drop off. The only way we are getting one of the top guys is if they are willing to take a fair market deal to come to a winner. Players looking to break the bank need not apply. When we signed Colvin that was a fair deal for both parties. He didn't bend over and say thank you sir may I have another.
So if somebody like Thomas, Hamlin, Grant, Briggs.........
A. Doesn't get tagged
B. Wants to play for a winner and get paid not just break the bank
Then we could get one of them.
I still think they'll look at guys like Polk (LB SD) or Washington (WR Cincy) to add some youth and depth. Couple that with a good draft and we'll be ready for another run.
I think the point people were trying to make, or perhaps missing the boat completely, about Indy is they beat us twice this year. The 7 pointer we turned it over 5 times. The 4 pointer it was one of those games where if one play goes differently we are in the SB, and there were 10 plays that were so close. When we beat Indy in 03 and 04 the playoff games were not that close. They got crushed.
So lets say Indy can only sign 5/8 of this list
LG Ryan Lilja
RG Jake Scott
TE Ben Utecht
RDE Dwight Freeney
SLB Rob Morris
WLB Cato June
LCB Nick Harper
RCB Jason David
and only 3/4 of the big names, it could be more it could be less this is just an example but it's not hyperbole either, and lets assume for the sake of argument both the Colts and Pats have good drafts, they both certainly have good track records. The Colts had Stokley and Simon out we'll give them both of them for having Harrison and Wilson back. So far everything is even. Now lets say we go out and grab just one decent FA. I'll use Polk from SD as a ILB who can run and cover. That right there might be one tipped pass that makes a 38-34 loss a 34-31 victory.
The Colts are a playoff team next year barring injuries but IMO the team we should be focusing on is San Diego. This was their learning curve year. They have a ton of young talent and yes I know about the Marty factor and they lost a coordinator, who called an awful second half, but they are the team we need to match IMO and they have almost as much free cap space as we do.
This is the first year that the Pats have been in good shape. With
48 players already under contract, they should be able to splurge a
little and sign or re-sign a couple of good players. Otherwise, they
will have to figure out a lot of LTBE incentive bonuses.
No, not at all. You are way too smart to believe what you are saying, so why are you saying this?
The difference is having $30 mil of space and a couple of key FAs, vs having $5 mil of free space and twice as many (or more) key FAs.
If they Pats had as many FAs next year (UFA and RFA) as the Colts and only $5 mil cap space, no one would be bragging about what a good cap job we'd been doing. Everyone would be down on the Pats because they had a relatively large number of FAs and relativelly little cap space (compared to the rest of the league).
Think about it, we are concerned about Samuel, Graham and Banta-Cain, and we are near the top of the cap money available list. The Colts have the equivalent of Samuel, Hobbs, Colvin, Bruschi, Seymour, Dillon, and one of Graham/Watson as FAs. And the Colts are at the bottom of the available cap money list.
It isn't bad to push cap money into the future, any more than it is bad to use your Visa or MasterCard. But when you get to the point that your obligations are affecting your day-to-day life or means of doing business, you have done it too much. That is all that posters are saying: the Colts (and Steelers and Panthers) have done it too much. CHargers and Pats have not.
Everything I've read talks about an excess of money this year with the cap going up again. The price of players will go up, not down.
The Colts have $5 mil to play with. Sure they can re-do some deals and free up money, but so can the teams with $30 mil re-do deals and free up more money. There just isn't any way you can look at the list of cap space and list of FAs for all the teams and say the Colts are not in rough shape compared to most teams.
I think the Patriots have enough money (in cap space or by re-doing deals) to sign all their FAs (RFA and UFA), sign a couple key FAs from other teams, and have money left over for all 12 potential rookies.
Can the Colts do that?
depends on who's signed and who's not. the jets, for example, have few free agents next year, so at $28MM are in great shape.
great point and i wish i had the time to research it...does anybody have any data...from reading the new york papers i know that the jets are in great shape re free agency next year...
I did not mention Adam because I think that Vandrjagt's contract offset his.
The Colts will probably get a 3rd for Edge, a 4th for Thorton, and a 6th/7th for Tripplett.
Vanderjagt was cut. I thought it was a formula of salary, playing time, and postseason awards. If it is, Vanderjagt will not offset Vinatieri since Vanderjagt only played half a season.
Also, isn't amount money spent based on the position not total money spent? With Vinatieri being the highest paid kicker, he might offset Edge (but then again he is a kicker and they might discount his position because he is a special teams player).
I kinda doubt they will get a third rounder for Edge or a fourth rounder for Thornton. Last year, the Jets were the only team to get a third round compensatory pick and only four teams got fourth round picks. Edge's production may drop him to a fourth . Thornton will probably be a fifth rounder. You gotta remember that both guys may have gotten big contract, but not that big when you figure last year's spending spree. I could be wrong on this, but predictions are pretty high.
I am going to make the assumption that the Patriots will have around $30M after restructuring some contracts.
Assante is either signed or franchised
Daniel Grahm is signed
Larry Izzo is signed
Junior is resigned
If Assante is signed:
5 years $30M with a $10M signing Bonus - Cap Hit about $4M
4 Years $18M with a $6M signing Bonus - Cap Hit about $4.5M
Remaining cap room = $21M
For the Colts to remain competitive in the off season it will take adding about $10 to $15M to their cap room.
Let's assume that they resign June and Freeny.
June will demand at least $16 to 20M
Freeny will demand at least $25 to 30M
Given those numbers that will eat up 2/3 of the extra $10 million at least, that still leaves them with about $7M. Take $3M away for signing their draft picks, and another $2M for mad money during the season it leaves them in cap hell, never mind signing their other free agents.
Play the same game with the patriots money and they still have about $13 millinon to sign a LB, CB and WR, or any conbination of them.
Unless they decide to get some real cap relief, the clts will have a tough off season.
Hey Miguel, if I'm reading you cap page correctly, you have the Pats at a little over thirty million under as of right now. Do you know of any reason for the discrepancy? In general I tend to trust your info over sites like this.
Also, are you related to Bill Polian? (Just Kidding)
Separate names with a comma.