Salary Cap Status as of 1/3

[Miguel]

Vanderjagt was cut. I thought it was a formula of salary, playing time, and postseason awards. If it is, Vanderjagt will not offset Vinatieri since Vanderjagt only played half a season.

Also, isn't amount money spent based on the position not total money spent? With Vinatieri being the highest paid kicker, he might offset Edge (but then again he is a kicker and they might discount his position because he is a special teams player).

I kinda doubt they will get a third rounder for Edge or a fourth rounder for Thornton. Last year, the Jets were the only team to get a third round compensatory pick and only four teams got fourth round picks. Edge's production may drop him to a fourth . Thornton will probably be a fifth rounder. You gotta remember that both guys may have gotten big contract, but not that big when you figure last year's spending spree. I could be wrong on this, but predictions are pretty high.

May I suggest reading
http://www.nflfans.com/x/showthread.php?t=10313

 

[Rob0729]

Adamjt13, the Internet's expert on comp picks, has always stated that salary has proven to be the most important factor.

Also, isn't amount money spent based on the position not total money spent?

No.[/QUOTE]

Salary might be the most important factor, but what is the weighting? Does the fact that Vanderjagt got cut have little to no factor? I don't know Adamjt13 or his sources. So I can't speak to what he knows, but most sports writers seem to all say that the league is pretty closed lipped how they calculate and weigh these factors.

I am not trying to be a pain on this, but I just don't know and everything I have read virtually no one else does either.

 

[Miguel]

For the Colts to remain competitive in the off season it will take adding about $10 to $15M to their cap room.

which is easily doable

Let's assume that they resign June and Freeny.
June will demand at least $16 to 20M
Freeny will demand at least $25 to 30M
Given those numbers that will eat up 2/3 of the extra $10 million at least, that still leaves them with about $7M.

No way is that going to be true. The 1st year of the deals for June and Freeney are not going to take up $7million.

Take $3M away for signing their draft picks

Make it more like $1.5 million because of the rule of 51 and where the Colts are going to pick.

, and another $2M for mad money during the season it leaves them in cap hell, never mind signing their other free agents.

Play the same game with the patriots money and they still have about $13 millinon to sign a LB, CB and WR, or any conbination of them.

Unless they decide to get some real cap relief, the clts will have a tough off season.

You seem to be forgetting about the rule of 51 and that the 1st years of most contracts have a small cap number.

 

[Miguel]

No.

Salary might be the most important factor, but what is the weighting? Does the fact that Vanderjagt got cut have little to no factor? I don't know Adamjt13 or his sources. So I can't speak to what he knows, but most sports writers seem to all say that the league is pretty closed lipped how they calculate and weigh these factors.

I am not trying to be a pain on this, but I just don't know and everything I have read virtually no one else does either.[/quote]

Fair enough. All I can say that Adamjt13 has had an excellent record of projecting compensatory picks. Going by what he has predicted in the past, I will be stunned if the Colts do not get a 3rd for Edge.

 

[Miguel]

Salary might be the most important factor, but what is the weighting? Does the fact that Vanderjagt got cut have little to no factor? I don't know Adamjt13 or his sources. So I can't speak to what he knows, but most sports writers seem to all say that the league is pretty closed lipped how they calculate and weigh these factors.

I am not trying to be a pain on this, but I just don't know and everything I have read virtually no one else does either.

Fair enough. All I can say that Adamjt13 has had an excellent record of projecting compensatory picks. Going by what he has predicted in the past, I will be stunned if the Colts do not get a 3rd for Edge

 

[Rob0729]

May I suggest reading
http://www.nflfans.com/x/showthread.php?t=10313

It seems he has a pretty good theory of what the formula is (although if you look at the actual picks vs. his estimates he does get some pick rounds and orders wrong, see actual list below), but I don't think he addresses the Vanderjagt situation. What happens if a player gets cut mid-season? Does that weight into the formula at all?

http://nfl.com/draft/story/9341500

 

[Rob0729]

Fair enough. All I can say that Adamjt13 has had an excellent record of projecting compensatory picks. Going by what he has predicted in the past, I will be stunned if the Colts do not get a 3rd for Edge

He does have a good record, but not perfect. If you look he does not discount Ed Hartwell missing 11 games and the league clearly did dropping him from the 4th round to the fith where Adamjt13 had him in the fourth and before two team's picks that actually the league put ahead of Baltimore's Hartwell pick. Based on this, Vanderjagt will not be an even wash with Vinatieri.

 

[Miguel]

It seems he has a pretty good theory of what the formula is (although if you look at the actual picks vs. his estimates he does get some pick rounds and orders wrong, see actual list below), but I don't think he addresses the Vanderjagt situation.

Adamjt13 does indeed address the situation.
"and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team".

 

[Rob0729]

Adamjt13 does indeed address the situation.
"and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team".

I missed that. Sorry. He looks to have made that cut off point since he was cut after week 11.

 

[Miguel]

Hey Miguel, if I'm reading you cap page correctly, you have the Pats at a little over thirty million under as of right now. Do you know of any reason for the discrepancy?)

I do not know of player's LTBE incentives.

 

[AdamJT13]

He does have a good record, but not perfect. If you look he does not discount Ed Hartwell missing 11 games and the league clearly did dropping him from the 4th round to the fith where Adamjt13 had him in the fourth and before two team's picks that actually the league put ahead of Baltimore's Hartwell pick.

No, I had Hartwell's pick as the last comp pick in the fourth round. It ended up being the second comp pick of the fifth round, so there was only one comp pick in between, not two. And if you noticed, I did "discount Ed Hartwell missing 11 games," which is why I listed him lower than Plaxico Burress, who got less money but played in all 16 games.

 

[Rob0729]

No, I had Hartwell's pick as the last comp pick in the fourth round. It ended up being the second comp pick of the fifth round, so there was only one comp pick in between, not two. And if you noticed, I did "discount Ed Hartwell missing 11 games," which is why I listed him lower than Plaxico Burress, who got less money but played in all 16 games.

Sorry, I misspoke a bit. But you had had Hartwell above Marco Rivera who made $500k less than Hartwell. So your formula didn't discount the games that Hartwell missed enough.

But my point is that your system while pretty good is not perfect which you admit to yourself. I am not trying to trash your formula because it is the most accurate formula I have seen to predict the compensatory picks, but you may under value the number of games played. I know you are working blind because the NFL are ultra secretive how they calculate picks. So the fact that you were even this close is pretty amazing.

 

[pats1]

Why??

Let's go back to 2006.

The Colts lose players to free agency. This board predicts that the Colts implode. The Pats lose players to free agency. This board says that the 2006 team is the best Patriots team ever. If I wanted to do, I could go back and find posts where the Pats were lauded for letting players like Givens/Willie/Adam go and the Colts criticized for letting players like Edge/Tripplett go. Both teams had set a value for a player. That player was able to get more money from another team. Same actions. Different reviews.

Edgerrin was their only significant loss. Even I tried to downplay the "loss" of Tripplett, which was being exaggerated by many around here.

Still, IIRC, the Colts had to restructure a few contracts last year to get under the cap during that whole new CBA debacle. That money just doesn't disappear.

And I find it hard to compare the likely loss of Freeney, and probably June or Harper, among possibly others, to the lone loss of Edgerrin. They hit gold with Addai in the draft, which saved their ass, but they can't be counting on the draft to fill those big holes.

If Freeney goes, there isn't any Dominic Rhodes to help out. There's Josh Thomas. There's Ryan LaCasse. There's Bo Schobel. If any of those guys have to start at DE, the Colts are in big trouble.

 

[pats1]

How will they lose offensive line depth??

You're right, it's tough to lose something they don't have.

Matt Ulrich? Charlie Johnson? Daniel Federkeil? Mike Johnson?

Hell, Mike Johnson would be the starting RG if the season started today. Dylan Gandy at LG. They'd have zero OG/C backups.

...

Elsewhere, Gilbert Gardner and Keith O'Neil would be starting at OLB, Ryan LaCasse at RE, and Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden at CB.

Ouch.

(Meanwhile, the Pats would have Chad Scott at CB and Thomas at TE if the season started today, based off the Colts/Pats starting lineups. They'd also add Rodney, Geno, Miller, and others.)

And the Pats have 5x the cap space and 2x the first round picks.

 

[Miguel]

Edgerrin was their only significant loss.

I think that it is fair to say that this board for the most considered Tripplett and Thorton to be significant losses.

 

[pats1]

I think that it is fair to say that this board for the most considered Tripplett and Thorton to be significant losses.

Thornton, yes.

Tripplett started 4 games in 2005. Simon and Reagor started the majority of games.

But I was with you on Tripplett:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=161852&postcount=41

You didn't consider Tripplett to be a "key" loss in August. But he's a "significant loss" now?

 

[Miguel]

But I was with you on Tripplett:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/showpost.php?p=161852&postcount=41

You didn't consider Tripplett to be a "key" loss in August. But he's a "significant loss" now?

I never said that Tripplett was a significant loss. I said that this board for the most part considered Tripplett a significant loss. I have always thought that this board was overstating the loss of Tripplett. My point is that when the Colts lost a player this board considered that player a significant loss. When the Pats lost a player this board did not consider that a significant loss.
Same action - different review.

 

[pats1]

I never said that Tripplett was a significant loss. I said that this board for the most part considered Tripplett a significant loss. I have always thought that this board was overstating the loss of Tripplett. My point is that when the Colts lost a player this board considered that player a significant loss. When the Pats lost a player this board did not consider that a significant loss.
Same action - different review.

Exactly. And I agreed with that.

Therefore, for all intents and purposes, the Colts are in worse shape FA-wise than both they were last year, and the Pats are this year.

James = Freeney
June > Thornton
Harper >> Tripplett
David, Lilja, Scott, Morris, Utecht >>>>>>>> Sapp

Now, of course not every FA starter will be leaving. But it's tough to envision a scenario where the Colts are able to keep their personnel losses to a 2006 offseason level without seriously shifting around some money and handcuffing themselves in the FA market.

Obviously the NFL doesn't work as cleanly as this, but the margin between the Colts and Pats performance-wise in 2006 is ridiculously smaller than the margin between the Colts and Pats status-wise right now.

The Colts have been losing some personnel lately, and it's going to hurt them. Yes, some said that about the Pats lately too. The difference lies in the fact that the Colts have their money tied up in their big 3 and will have trouble replacing that talent (see: LaCasse, O'Neil/Hagler, Hayden, Gandy, etc.), while the Pats have a stronger middle class and good drafting experience and can withstand that blow (see: Thomas, Scott, etc.)

 

[Return of the Nizz]

I do not know of player's LTBE incentives.

Thank you.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

More than anything, I admire a GM's ability to build a SB contending team.

Then you must truly admire Pioli more since, after all, he's been more successful at it over the last several years.


Your sense is wrong.

I'm glad then 'cause at times lately you could have fooled me.



Do you think that the Colts should have paid Edge what he got from the Cards?? the Colts should have paid Thorton what he got from the Titans???

I didn't think they should have franchised Edge in '05, but the point wasn't what I would pay it was what Polian would have if he could have. He didn't let him go because he was asking too much, he let him go because he couldn't afford to keep him and Harrison and Wayne and Manning as well as Freeney in an all salary final rookie deal year even after the restructures and windfall. A month ago he was apologizing to Indy fans for letting his best LB go when teams were running all over the Colts. He threw silly money at Simon to no avail in '05 and now will wreak havoc if need be to try and weasle out of the balance of that deal.

Now I have a question for you - did you think the Patriots should have paid Branch and Givens what they got from the Seahawks and Titans??? Because at one time I could have sworn you didn't, but later it seemed as if you did. And what seemed to change your position was this team being in a position to afford it, rather than whether it represented good value.


Simply not true. Because of the Deion rules 23.3 million of Manning's 34.5 million has already been amortized. The Colts will amortize another $3.7 million in 2007.

Yup, but that will leave another $18M or so to be amortized over the remaining 3 years when you factor in those roster bonuses they have or will convert and amortize, and any new bonus amortization or salary from a new deal will rest on top of that in 2008-2010. And as I said, to do that will also require Irsay to fork over a huge signing bonus which in and of itself may result in his spending cash over cap when whatever other signings he must make are factored in. And they will likely face the same scenario in another 4 years when Peyton is past his mid 30's and once again all salary against the cap so primed for another restructure. Unless of course they cut or trade him and eat the dead cap or bite the bullet and have him play out his deal as is. It's a revolving credit card approach and sooner or later you have to pay principle in the NFL because unlike in real life players have an extremely limited shelf life and when they go their accounts must be settled. I think if they win this year nobody in Indy will care - at least for a time. But if they don't it may get harder and harder to keep proping up that window. Meanspirited as is may sound, I'm hoping they fail because we'll have so much more to talk about going forward that way.


A take that I totally disagree with. With the cap being so high and with the Colts having so many young players, they need to have players like Manning and Harrison taking so much cap space to meet the minimum floor requirement.

Unless they have so many young players because they can't afford to pay veteran salaries because of Manning and Harrison.



Once Harrison is not worth the new money, he will not get it. Starting in 2008 it will save the Colts cap space by releasing him.

Only because his salaries are backloaded. He will also represent a substantial dead cap hit for a couple of years that will probably limit who they can replace Wayne with after he replaces Marvin.


There is nothing more important than that fact.

Unless you take the long view and want to win one for the thumb like the Steelers did, only before this decade expires. In that case, I like our guys chances better.